Bracing for May 9 #Halalan2022
The Leni-Kiko monster rallies continue to draw impressively bigger and bigger crowds, and a number of credible political pundits continue to believe that Leni can still pull off a win despite Marcos Jr.’s lead in the surveys. That is, IF we take advantage of the palpable momentum and push even harder toward including the fringes in this movement for change.
May oras pa, ang pahiwatig ni Ronnie Holmes ng Pulse Asia kay Karen Davila sa ANC News noong April 8.
KAREN DAVILA. Historically speaking, based on your experience, have you seen a dramatic shift in surveys in, like, 30 days?
HOLMES. I would say that it’s possible, it’s really quite possible. It would really depend on how each candidate would really change their strategy, intensify their campaign. The last 30 days is like the last 2 minutes of a basketball game. The other team might be leading 12 to 15 points, the last 2 minutes is a crucial thing. If someone shoots five 3-pointers, the game… it’s tied.
So it’s not a question of whether the race is done, you still have 30 days. Those 30 days of campaign will be crucial. It might be best for some candidates to look back in term of their messages, how it can be refined and trying to escalate activities that will generate public support for their candidacy.
Parang Leni-Kiko camp mismo ang pinaparinggan ni Holmes, at sana nakikinig sina Bam Aquino, sana they go beyond the bongga rallies, do the rounds of public markets and factories, apart from house-to-house ikot-sa-barangay. Ninoy Aquino’s campaign strategy in 1965 when he ran for and placed 2nd (of 8) in the senatorial race, as told by Nick Joaquin in The Aquinos of Tarlac (1983) pages 313-316, might inspire, kahit last minute.
On another front, La Salle Prof. Julio Teehankee told Karmina Constantino in a Dateline: Philippines interview [ANC 4 April] that he thinks it’s time for something drastic, which sounds like Davila’s “dramatic shift”.
TEEHANKEE. The frontrunner is sitting pretty just waiting for Election Day to happen, so unless something drastic, you know, some major earthshaking event will happen between now and Election Day… Time is running out, and he has a comfortable lead. So something must happen to move the needle in favor of those challenging the frontrunner.
KC. Is that pointing to some sort of consolidation, and now is the time to do it?
TEEHANKEE. It’s now or never. I think those who are seriously thinking of the future of the country should [follow] the lead of similar individuals in history. They must do a Day Laurel or even a Mar Roxas at this point.
Unfortunately Isko, Ping, and Manny do not seem to be up to the sacrifice. And it’s understandable. VP Doy Laurel may have later regretted giving way to Cory in ’86 because he and Cory didn’t get along at all post-EDSA, and he ended up sidelined and ridiculed. I bet Mar Roxas regretted giving way to PNoy, settling for a VP run and waiting for his turn, when he lost to VP Binay in 2010 and then to President Duterte in 2016. Not very encouraging outcomes there.
TEEHANKEE. Based on the 2016 exit poll of SWS, 54.2 % [of voters] decided only around this time, and a significant 18 % decided on Election Day itself.
Perhaps that’s what’s giving hope to every candidate that s/he will be the chosen one of a majority of voters still deciding at this point in time. But one can’t win on hope, not when these votes are going at least 4 ways, and not when the frontrunner has been working on a win for a full decade.
Hopefully this Holy Week finds Isko, Ping, and Manny accepting the fact that VP Leni is far ahead of them all, ahead enough to have a real chance of beating Marcos Jr. as she did in 2016, but only if the three throw their support behind her like true gentlemen and statesmen and patriots would—which is exactly how Doy Laurel is remembered, never mind the petty bickering with Cory after.
Surely the three do not wish to go down in history as 2022’s batch of would-be presidents who did not really care about nation. When this is over, win or lose, there will be a reckoning.
Meanwhile, the world that watched and applauded us when we ousted Marcos in ’86 is again watching, this time aghast that another Marcos is running for president and looking like he might win despite his father’s many crimes. And they’re wondering what happened, how could we let this happen, didn’t we see this coming?
I daresay we didn’t think they would go this far. I daresay we were counting on some remorse and some delicadeza on their part, for nation’s sake. Alas. Iba talaga ang mga Marcos.