It was nothing like the euphoria of EDSA ’86 when the dictator Marcos fled the country, but still it was quite a rare high when former president Duterte unexpectedly flew off to The Hague without a fight. A WOW! who-would-have-thought moment that we are all still wrapping our heads around, whether in mixed joy and pity, how dissonant, or intense sorrow and rage, how DDS.

It also couldn’t have happened at a more critical time — it’s election season with Duterte and Marcos campaigning for control of the Senate where VP Sara, the daughter, is up for an impeachment trial, and last week civil society was clamoring for the trial to begin forthwith, before elections.

That’s a lost cause now, it would seem. We’ve already lost another week, the window of possibility grows narrower. And given the Duterte-ICC shock-and-awe political drama that’s got everyone thinking, rethinking, reevaluating (sooo Mercury retrograde), I imagine that the trial will just have to wait until after the May elections, in early June. The incumbent senators, re-electionist and otherwise, will not want to be seen adding to the tribulations of the VP, not while she’s in The Hague attending to Digong’s defense, and not while the DDS are screaming to bring him home, or else.

Or else, what? People power daw. The movie-in-the-mind of DDS peeps starts with street rallies that become so large and nasty and noisy that PBBM would have no choice but to declare martial law, which would then unite the opposition, the DDS greens with the pinks and yellows, left right and center; fast-forward to the ouster of Marcos and the rise of Sara. Parang fairy tale. And it’s not as if, if she became president she could bring her tatay home from ICC. Sa intindi ko, the only time Digong gets to come home is if and when the ICC declares him innocent.

Meanwhile they promise a sweep for Duterte’s senatorial slate, certain that they can count on voter sympathy to seat the entire caboodle in the Senate and guarantee Sara’s acquittal sa impeachment trial.

Voter sympathy. But I can also imagine voters levelling up, listening to both sides, going through now-I-see moments, and making up their own minds. Wishful thinking, I know, but heck all the information and opinions and platforms have to account for something worthwhile, or what’s the point.

And let’s not forget BBM who is very much in control. Here’s a Facebook post by information consultant James Matthew Miraflor on why BBM did it.

Marcos, Jr. follows the footstep of Macapagal-Arroyo – it does not matter how unpopular your regime becomes, as long as you satisfy the established elite. Unfortunately for the Duterte family, it is the same elite they pissed off when they maneuvered Dennis Uy into their circle.

For this elite, #NeverAgain to the Dutertes. This elite will ensure that Sara is impeached and perpetually disqualified, Polong is jailed (probably), and Baste is politically kneecapped. Kitty? All clans have Anastasias, she’ll probably have her own harmless Disney movie. The Dutertes cannot survive this without compromise. Marcos, Jr. and the rest of the Marcos family cannot risk a vindictive political force post-2028.

Hell, the Marcoses might even be willing to engineer charter change to ensure a transition to a federal-parliamentary system, one that will be dominated by corporate-sponsored parties*. Perhaps a semi-Presidential system, with a Tulfo as President and Romualdez as PM? It will be the apotheosis of the Philippine elite: dual power ala Roman consulate, fully liberalized, rules-based, with institutionalized consensus-based gerrymandering.

Alas, a low-intensity democracy that is also the technocrats dream: capitalists govern, economists appoint regulators, and the electorate simply vote party mascots.

—

* Nacionalista for Villar, NPC for San Miguel, NUP for Razon, LAKAS-NUCD for Aboitiz, and the LP for the Negros vieux riche; Consunjis, Tans, and Gokongweis might commit to new parties, who knows?

https://www.philstar.com/…/2239719/tycoons-men-marcos-men
https://bilyonaryo.com/…/gokongwei-zobel…/business/

Tuesday, the 11th, that saw Digong arrested upon ICC and Interpol orders when he returned from Hong Kong, and forthwith detained in Villamor Air Base (not Crame, as a distraught vlogger thought), and by the end of the day flown off on a jet plane, one-way, to Dubai and finally the Hague, was breathtaking, as in startling, thrilling, stunning, in its seamless execution.

At every point, I expected things to go sideways — no jurisdiction? due process not observed? fake arrest warrant? health concerns? TRO? — just because alam naman natin ang batas dito sa Pinas, kanya-kanyang interpretation depending on where one stands in the political spectrum. That the Palace managed to stay out of the unfolding fray, media-wise, was remarkable, even impressive. Ika nga ni Manolo Quezon sa “The last hurrah”:

And so, the Great Eagle Father came home, possibly for the last time. He was arrested with a degree of dignity, not to mention surgical precision and efficiency, I’d previously thought impossible to achieve in our shambolic republic. https://opinion.inquirer.net/181551/the-last-hurrah-2

As it turned out, the rumors that swirled around over the weekend, na he was in Hong Kong kunwari to campaign for the votes of Hong Kong OFWs and KOJCs, actually to ask China for asylum because nabulungan sila about an ICC arrest order… it would seem that the rumors were based on good intel.

Nuong umuwi siya Tuesday morning into the arms of police who arrested him in the plane pa lang, the big question was: Bakit umuwi? Could it be that China said no, and he had nowhere else to go? It was late in the afternoon of Tuesday, nasa Villamor pa siya, when this was posted by the Philippines Defense Forces Forum:

The intel suggests that Xi Jinping smoked Duterte, ignored his requests for political asylum, and had him told to leave Hong Kong upon learning that Interpol had already received an arrest warrant from the ICC. While China is not a member of the ICC, it is a member of Interpol and would likely avoid an embarrassing backlash from other member states by protecting Duterte.
https://www.facebook.com/philippinesdefense/posts/

Digong and Sara claim Digong was kidnapped. But a kidnap is done stealthily — this arrest was done openly, backed by a warrant of arrest. Like Digong used to say, there’s a time for everything, and here it is, a time to pay, for heinous crimes against humanity. A matter of karma. We reap what we sow.

Ika nga ni Atty Claire Castro re the DDS claim na “nakabuti naman ang drug war sa karamihan ng ating mga kababayan”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lc-DXedRNJk

Dapat natin i-determine, anong klaseng kabutihan? … Itanong natin, war on drugs, kasama ang tokhang? kasama ang pagpatay [na] walang due process? kasama yung sasabihan ng pulis…o sige, sabihin mo sa kanya lumaban, para matapos na at mabawasan na ang problema sa Pilipinas? Hindi siya dapat polisiya ng gobyerno in the first place. It’s against the law! Killing is against the law! Wala nga tayong death penalty sa Pilipinas. Uunahan mo pa na patayin. Ang masama, wala pang hearing… So hindi natin matatanggap na yung war on drugs na pinairal ni dating Pangulong Duterte ay tamà. Kung may naitulong sa iba, paano naman yung namatayan. Kung merong nabiktima itong drug users, then the victims can file cases against these drug users. Pero hindi natin matatanggap na polisiya siya na dapat sundin ng isang gobyerno.

Good to be reminded, lalo na’t emotions are running high, ranging from bittersweet joy (justice!) to grief (gone!) and everything in between, which can get really cheesy, like a “public intellectual” saying that it didn’t have to come to this, meaning what? That Duterte should have behaved better maybe? Hindi dapat dumulog sa ICC? Hindi dapat inilipad si Duterte sa Hague? Hayaan na lang na  malusutan ang katakut-takot na indiscriminate extra-judicial killings by his death squads?

Isip isip. There’s right and there’s wrong. Karma rules.

*

What Duterte’s warrant of arrest reveals by Joel Ruiz Butuyan

The law finally caught up with Duterte and his death squads by Karishma Vaswani

Duterte’s arrest: A reckoning for justice by Antonio Contreras

Cue the wailing and gnashing of teeth by Ben Kritz