Trust ratings, painful truths

I totally agree with Ronnie Holmes of Pulse Asia that the high trust ratings of Digong and Sara as of May 6-9, just before the elections, had a lot to do with the timing of Sara’s impeachment (Feb 7) by the Lower House followed by Digong’s arrest and rendition to ICC jurisdiction (March 11). https://www.gmanetwork.com/

I-i-impeach din pala, why did Congress not strike while Sara’s trust ratings were down, soon after the Nov 2024 hitman threats on BBM atbp., no-joke no-joke? Sa kaka-delay — first the Lower House, then the Senate: why was the Senate so loath to proceed forthwith, all of three months before May 12 — nakabawi tuloy ang VP, thanks to a very smart comms team that has had her strutting on social media platforms, hitting at the Marcos admin non-stop for the poverty high prices and corruption  (never mind that she has nothing to offer by way of alternative economic policies) and then, post-arrest, doubling down with the “kidnap” of Tatay Digong, tugging at heartstrings with the sob story of advanced age, ill health, 27 pills a day, at kung anuano pa.

Sa madaling salita, had the impeachment trial proceeded, forthwith, back in maybe Dec 2024, it would could conceivably have ended with a conviction by Feb or Mar 2025.  And if the DOJ had also put off Digong’s arrest till May 13, then hindi nadagdagan nang katakut-takot ang mga hinaing ng mga Duterte, and maybe there would have been no consolidating the DDS base, tsismis pa lang kasi. At the very least, the political dynamics would have been quite different come election day. And BBM would not be in the spot that he is in now.

And then again, I could be completely off the mark, and it’s all just a matter of charisma pala, as many analysts and observers say. I tend to think though that the old man Digong’s high trust ratings only indicate that one of two Filipinos think, feel, he should face trial here, not in The Hague, just because kawawa naman ang matanda.

Besides, say pa ng DDS vlogger lawyers sa You Tube, okay naman ang judicial system natin, Digong would get a fair deal. Yeah, right. Imagine the wheeling and dealing. But that’s another story.

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Rodrigo Duterte: A Fascist Original by Walden Bello Feb 2017
Charisma and Rodrigo Duterte by Randy David Nov 2021
‘The Punisher’: Rodrigo Duterte’s violent reign… by Rebecca Ratcliffe Jun 2022
Rodrigo Duterte’s Popularity … Covid-19 Pandemic by Kasuya and Miwa Nov 2023
Rodrigo Duterte: The provocative but popular Philippine strongman Mar 2025

Senate president wanna-be

May 14, just two days after elections, Senator-elect Tito Sotto was quick to say YES, he would accept the Senate presidency in the 20th congress if enough of his colleagues support him.  https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/

May 15, Senate Prez Chiz Escudero had this to say to a titillated and makulit media.

“Katatapos lang ng eleksyon at bangayan at ingay, sisimulan nyo na naman agad. Palipasin nyo naman. Tapusin muna natin itong kongresong to. May dalawa pa kaming linggo na marami pa kaming inaasahang mapapasa at maihahabol na mga panukalang batas,” Escudero said. “Doon muna kami nakatutok at hindi yung parating na kongreso,” he added. https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/

Oo nga naman. Medyo nagulat din ako kay senator-elect Sotto, na hindi nagpatumpik-tumpik, oo agad. Puwede namang sabihing, too soon, guys, too soon to talk about that, let the 19th Congress wind up first. Like, you know, a show of delikadeza naman, in deference to SP Chiz who has a tricky 12 days to navigate, especially the impeachment part.

Unless yung impeachment mismo  ang top-of-mind ng senator-elect, na para bagang nagpaparamdam na he would handle it differently, otherwise why would he be so eager to replace Chiz? I couldn’t help wondering what game he’s playing.

Finally, some 10 days later, around May 23, my YouTube algo came up with an Iglesia (ni Cristo) Net25 vlog where Tito explains to Ali Sotto and Pat-P Daza exactly where he’s coming from on the impeachment matter. https://www.youtube.com/

SOTTO: Ako, ibang klaseng problema ang nakikita ko  na hindi nasisilip ng iba. Meron dalawang comflicting rules e. … Ang impeachment rules kasi, sinasabi that once the impeachment is taken up or the impeachment court is constituted as one, then kailangan tapusin … the impeachment trial must [go on] to the end.  Ito namang senate rules … ang sinasabi ng constitution … oras na mag-adjourn sine die ang senado, lahat ng business noon, patay, kaya nga…sine die, Latin for “without day”. Wala na.

So ano ang dapat sundin? Impeachment rules ba?  Ang problema, impeachment rules emanate from the senate rules, and the senate rules emanate from the constitution.  Bakit ko nasasabi yon? E ako ang co-author ng impeachment rules e. Nung kay Justice Corona, ako ang chairman ng committee of rules eh, yun yung sinulat ko na ginagamit namin as impeachment rules. So ngayon … alin ang susundin?

ALI: The question being, kung maitatawid itong impeachment complaint initiated during the 19th congress … into the 20th congress, is that the issue here?

SOTTO:  Kung sasabihin ng senado…ng 19 th congress … pagdating ng June 13, pag-adjourn sine die ng senado, sasabihin nila na yung impeachment court ay iba, it’s not a legislative body …   anong mangyayari?  Ike-carry over sa 20th congress? So the 20th congress can decide … sapagkat doon may bagong labingdalawa .. Although … may dalawa o tatlo na galing sa 19th congress na reelectionist … Pero the thing is their term ends June 30 ng tanghali. So panibagong term itong papasukan nila , so they’re part of the new 12 of the 20th congress.

PAT-P: So Sino po ang magdedecide … Supreme Court?

SOTTO: Puwede rin. Pero ako ang tingin ko yung 20th congress ang maganda mag-decide.

So. Clearly, whether or not he is elected senate prez by a majority (13) of his peers in the 20th, Sotto, once the Senate convenes on July 30, will contest the continuity of the impeachment court on grounds that the 20th Senate is a new Senate, 9 of the senators being new members, or something like that. Which means more delays, if not a complete stop to the trial, as in, better luck next time, next year.

But that would smack too much of trapo politics. Absent ba si Sotto when the Senate as continuous body was being explained extensively by legal luminaries in all media?

Atty. Rene Bueno:  Kapag impeachment court na ang Senado, puwede magpatuloy na litisin ang complaint … puwede ring i-set aside until after elections. … Marami nang jurisprudence re the Senate as a continuous body, no one can interrupt this function, and the main purpose is to maintain the stability of the government.  https://www.youtube.com/

Prof. Antonio Contreras: The concept of the Philippine Senate as a continuing body refers to its structure, composition and functioning, which ensures that its operations continue seamlessly despite periodic changes in its membership. This principle has legal and practical implications, making the Senate distinct from the House of Representatives. https://web.archive.org/

Fr. Ranhilio Aquino:  It is instructive that the 1987 Constitution and the 1935 Constitutions of the Philippines have staggered senators’ terms—thus assuring the continuity of the chamber…. https://manilastandard.net/

The trial can continue, pick up where the Senate court leaves off, once the new members have been sworn in. Naturally the newbies are expected to be capable of catching up, or they have no place in those august halls.

Besides, it’s not as if they weren’t keeping tabs on the Senate and QuadComm hearings last year like we all were, and we want to hear it all, prosecution AND defense. Technicalities be damned.

Toby, Sara, BBM

May 15, Alyansa campaign manager Toby Tiangco blasted away at Congress, blamed the impeachment of VP Sara for the poor showing of BBM’s Senate slate in Mindanao, even claimed that he had been approached to run for Speaker of the 20th Congress, but which key Congress bloc leaders denied, reaffirming their allegiance to Romualdez.

Hmmm. Toby is family, married to a Romualdez na pinsan nina BBM at Martin, so medyo unexpected na tinira niya si Speaker Martin, unless it’s all palabas, with the Speaker’s permission, anything to spare BBM from the blame game? https://opinion.inquirer.net/

May 17, VP Sara announced na “full throttle na” ang preparations for the impeachment trial — even if her lawyers are also looking for ways to stop it from taking place. “Sinabihan ko na rin sila: I truly want a trial because I want a bloodbath talaga.” And she alleges that her accusers are “motivated by personal gain” and “desperate for cash, cocaine, and champagne.”

Which reminds me of her line, back in October 2024, that she has a list of 5 impeachable offenses by PBBM. I wonder if that’s part of her arsenal. https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/

May 19, BBM, in a first presidential podcast, said yes when asked if he was open to pakikipagkasundo with the Dutertes. “Ako, ayaw ko ng gulo. … ang habol ko ay ‘yung stability, peaceful, para magawa namin ‘yung trabaho namin. …  I’m always open to any approach na, halika, magtulungan tayo. … Kahit na hindi tayo magkasundo sa polisiya … Gawin mo yung trabaho pero huwag na tayong nanggugulo.” https://pco.gov.ph/

Pure PR, nagpapabango sa publiko, asking not for blood but for peace. The prez knows full well that the Dutertes would have none of it. For the DDS to take him seriously, he would first have to bring Digong home. And even if he could, that ain’t happening any time soon.

But the rest of that podcast turned out interesting, informative even. The part where the prez talks about the rice situation na dinatnan niya in 2022, for instance.

Dahil ang Pilipinas, ang mga opisyal, nai-spoiled. Basta’t import lang nang import. Tapos ‘yung importation na iyan, illegal and legal. Ang katotohanan, ang nakita namin, ang pang-control doon sa presyo ng bigas ay ang smuggled na bigas. Kaya nagho-hoard. … Ang isa sa una naming ginawa, nag-raid kami ng mga warehouse. … Ito ang pinakamalupit.  Sinabi namin, ba’t may ganito? … Dahil ang nag-i-i-smuggle, mga opisyal din ng gobyerno. Kumikita sila … Pasok lang sila nang pasok. Hindi nila iniintindi ang production. Hindi nila iniintindi ‘yung sistema. Hindi nila iniintindi ang presyo ng palay, ang presyo ng bigas, ang kikitain ng magsasaka. Wala, walang ganoon. … Noong pag-upo ko … inipit namin ‘yung mga smuggled at nire-raid na namin ‘yang mga warehouse, nabawasan ‘yung supply.  Kailangan namin ayusin ‘yung NFA. Lahat ‘yan, ‘yung mga changes na ganyan, hindi ganoon kasimpleng gawin. May batas na kailangang palitan. Mayroong mga taong kailangang palitan. Ibang konsepto na. So, ngayon lang namin nabuo lahat. https://pco.gov.ph/

There’s more, stuff like this, telling what it was like after six years of Digong, and reminding that hard times didn’t start with BBM.

Senate watch, impeachment wait

The Duterte camp cannot claim victory. Losing seven Senate seats is seen by many observers as no small matter, and signals the so-called “Solid Duterte” vote may no longer hold the heretofore national influence it had despite the rankings of Senators Bong Go and Bato dela Rosa. https://manilastandard.net/

That’s from “Deconstructing the 2025 Senate poll results” by Manila Standard‘s opinion editor Honor Blanco Cabie.

Of course the DDS are saying otherwise, given the unexpected win of Marcoleta, thanks to INC, and the claimed wins of Imee, thanks to both Marcos loyalists and DDS, and Camille, thanks to the rich influence of rich MannyV on both sides of the divide, but which Tito Sotto insists is an Alyansa win.
https://www.youtube

Whatever, the next battleground is the impeachment trial, and the DDS are quite optimistic that VP Sara has more than the 9 Senators she needs for acquittal. Pero siyempre mas ipinagdadasal nila na hindi matuloy ang trial due to procedural issues na maaaring iakyat sa Supreme Court. But from where we the people seat and watch, these are mere technicalities. Besides, “… whether or not Senate Impeachment Rules were followed is a political question belonging to the Senate” and not to the Supreme Court. https://law.upd.edu.ph/

Of course the DDS would prefer that the Senate drop the impeachment case altogether — the VP has the numbers to get acquitted in the end anyway daw —  because they want to spare Sara the public scrutiny, and the retelling and confirming of House findings and conclusions re her betrayal of public trust atbp. And one way or another, baka maungkat din, at baka sumabit pa more, ang kanyang ama.

So the Senate bears watching. Magpapadala ba sila sa takot kina Duterte (baka makabalik a la Trump?) o sa conventional wisdom kuno that the impeachment is divisive and therefore should be dropped?

Prof. Arjan Aguirre of Ateneo’s PoliSci Department is already seeing 3 blocs of 7 each plus a tiny opposition. https://www.youtube.com

The Duterte bloc: Bong Go, Bato, Robin, Marcoleta, Imee, and the 2 Villars.
The Chiz bloc with Jinggoy, Lapid, the Cayetano sibs, and the Tulfo sibs.
The Zubiri bloc with Loren, JV, Gatchalian, and Villanueva, plus returnees Sotto and Lacson.
The Risa, Bam, Kiko bloc.

For sure there will be realignments. Already there is talk that Sotto is being eyed to replace Chiz as senate prez. But why Sotto? Is he expected to be nicer to Sara? Is Sotto a swing vote pala? And what about Bam? Does the INC endorsement mean he will acquit, come what may? Heaven forbid.