Category: national defense

China’s repolyo strategy @Ayungin Shoal

Ano nga ba ang nakikinitang endgame ng China sa pagharang nito sa ating mga bangkang maydalang pagkain, tubig, atbp. para sa 8-man contingent ng BRP Sierra Madre, military outpost natin sa Ayungin shoal, na teritoryo natin, hindi ng China.

Noong 2013, a year after the Scarborough scandal, ito ang sabi ng isang Maj. Gen. Zhang Zhaozhong ng China’s People Liberation Army kay Jeff Himmelman ng New York Times Magazine.

He described a “cabbage strategy,” which entails surrounding a contested area with so many boats — fishermen, fishing administration ships, marine surveillance ships, navy warships — that “the island is thus wrapped layer by layer like a cabbage.”

… Of taking territory from the Philippines, he said: “We should do more such things in the future. For those small islands, only a few troopers are able to station on each of them, but there is no food or even drinking water there. If we carry out the cabbage strategy, you will not be able to send food and drinking water onto the islands. Without the supply for one or two weeks, the troopers stationed there will leave the islands on their own. Once they have left, they will never be able to come back.”

Dagdag pa ni Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, director of Asia-Pacific programs at the U.S. Institute of Peace:

Nothing in China happens overnight. Any move you see was planned and prepared for years, if not more. So obviously this maritime issue is very important to China.” https://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/10/27/south-china-sea/index.html

Fast forward to 2023. According to the AFP’s early July air patrols, there was a swarm of more than 50 Chinese “fishing” vessels in the vicinity of Sabina Shoal, not far from Ayungin. Na nadagdagan pa noong August 5, nang i-water-cannon ang ating Coast Guard.

In the Aug. 5 incident, there were additionally some 12 Chinese militia vessels aside from the six Chinese Coast Guard  ships in the area, according to AFP Western Command chief Vice Admiral Alberto Carlos. “These fishing vessels are really militia… they seem to be working (and) taking orders from the Chinese Coast Guard.” https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2023/08/11/2287783/afp-eyes-maritime-militia-wps 

Five days after the water-cannon affront, the West Philippine Sea was still aswarm with mostly Chinese vessels.

CARLOS. … as far as the entire WPS, based on our last monitoring, close to 500 or more than 400. But that is just an estimate because there might be duplication of sightings,” he said.

Last monitoring was just yesterday on August 10, in Mischief Reef alone, there were 191. Around 85 percent are Chinese vessels,” he added.

Ito na mismo ang repolyo strategy at work: pinapalibutan, binabakuran, ng China ang Ayungin ng sapinsaping mga bangka at barko  ng mga mangingisda kuno, pero marine surveillance ships at navy warships sa totoo.  Layers of boats and ships pretending to be loaded with  fishermen, na papalapit nang palalapit sa BRP Sierra Madre. Ang goal ay malinaw: ma-takeover ang Ayungin nang walang putukan, as in, takutan lang, with water cannons and laser threats and the like. Gray zone tactics that the U.S deems below the threshold of military warfare.

‘Ika ni Ray Powell, director of SeaLight at the Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation at Stanford University:

… China operate[s] in the “gray zone” by carrying out actions just below what might be considered acts of war but that achieve the same result — Beijing gaining territory or control without firing a shot.

… The Sierra Madre is visibly rusting away, it is becoming structurally unsound. At some point it will begin to breakup and otherwise become uninhabitable.  At which point china’s strategy works because all they have to do then is sort of ‘rescue’ the poor Philippine sailors off the shoal because they’re the only people around.

And then they will control the shoal.

Unless something changes, that is what will happen. It’s just a matter of when it will happen.

WHAT NOW

Matagal nang pahirapan ang pagpaparating ng supplies at repair materials sa BRP Sierra Madre. Ang tanong ngayon: Is China revving up for a full-court press kumbaga, as in, wala nang supplies na palulusutin?

Ayon kay Manny Mogato ng PressOne:

China has been waiting for the ship [BRP Sierra Madre] to collapse but the Philippines has been trying to save it by reinforcing it with cement and steel.

On Aug. 5 … The Chinese Coast Guard accused the Philippines of bringing in construction materials to BRP Sierra Madre, blocking the boats and using a water cannon to prevent the vessels from getting near BRP Sierra Madre.

One of the wooden boats made it though. The shallow waters around BRP Sierra Madre prevented the large Chinese vessels from following it. The other boat left after evading too much pressure from the water cannon.

Sa palagay naman ni Alex Magno ng PhilStar:

This [Aug 5] incident is not an accidental one.

This will be the standard Chinese tactic from hereon. They will try to disrupt every resupply mission, hoping that we eventually throw up our arms and decide it is too costly to maintain that small detachment on Ayungin.

China has initiated a severe test of wills. They will continue to cram the waters they claim with Coast Guard and “militia” vessels. All these prowling vessels will try to intercept every Filipino vessel that moves into what they claim is their territory.

At heto ang reaction ni Ex-Foreign Affairs Sec., now PH Ambassador to the UK, Teddy Locsin sa August 10 pahayag ni AFP Chief of Staff Romeo Brawner Jr. na balak ng gobiyernong mag-deploy ng naval reservists sa West Ph Sea.

TEDDY LOCSIN. We’re gonna need gunboats—more of ours out there, the higher risk of misencounter triggering the Mutual Defense Treaty—and ending its vacuities. Brawner is right; we gotta be all over the arena so our only military ally knows it isn’t a shadow play. A war for real is coming. 

Yes. A war for real. Without shades of gray. Because Ayungin is ours, #AtinAngAyungin, no ifs or buts.

*

A Game of Shark and Minnow

‘Little blue men’: Is a militia Beijing says doesn’t exist causing trouble in the South China Sea?

AFP eyes maritime militia in WPS 

Philippines should take action vs. China’s ‘gray zone’ tactics —experts 

Water cannon incident confirms Chinese fishing vessels are militia – WESCOM 

‘Creeping invasion’ — Walk the talk, Gibo tells China 

Scarborough Shoal and the Spratlys in ancient maps

Between America and China…

Worth dying for

Jose Ma. Montelibano

… Our Presidents want to defend our sovereignty, but they also want to save our lives. They are in a quandary but they will always be unless we, the people, show them a way out of their dilemma. China is a given, and so are its more than a billion people, its land area, it economic and military resources, its level of technology. Before, and China itself was proud of saying this before, China did not invade other nations while it itself was invaded several times. Today, the perspective of the leadership of China is vastly different. Today it has a Nine Dash Line, its own idea of what in the world belongs to it. And it is willing to flex its military muscle to get it.

Maybe it is time to count if there are Filipinos who are afraid of dying but may still choose death over a shameful life. There may be only a few, that that would make our President avoid a war at all costs. But there may be enough, a million or so, who would freely choose the possibility of death rather than endless submission to an invader whose limits of aggression we still cannot measure.

I had proposed to some friends of my generation the idea that those 60 years old and above can volunteer to be the first to offer our lives. Then, a second wave can be comprised of those who are 50 to 59 years old – and so on. If the future is about our children and grandchildren, then we of the older generations may choose to die for them.

When millions of people are slaughtered, the rest of the world will react. History has repeatedly affirmed this. If we want the rest of the world, including many among the Chinese people, to react against the aggression of the Chinese leadership against Filipinos, we must give them basis to do so. The power of the rest of the world, plus a brave Filipino people, will be greater than China’s. But first, we must conquer our fear of death.

national defense

DEFENSE Secretary Voltaire Gazmin said Wednesday  the United States seemed more interested in showing off its military might than helping the Philippines build up its capability for territorial defense through their 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty.

… the two cutters that the Philippines had acquired were often portrayed as “warships” by the media, but those were really gunboats without guns when they were turned over to the Philippine Navy.

“My only request which I have conveyed to him [Panetta] is that the cutters be upgraded,” Gazmin said, noting that the first ship, the BRP Gregorio del Pilar, had been stripped of all its weaponry except for one 76mm gun.

“We requested that the second cutter be given with its weapons system [intact],” Gazmin said.

He said the Defense Department, with a P70-billion budget for military modernization, was eying a third gunboat from Italy.

Earlier, Vice Admiral Alexander Pama acknowledged that the cutters that the US had sent to the Philippines came without their weapons.

meanwhile, senators enrile and honasan are practically saying that we should look out for ourselves and prepare vs. China:

“We must prepare. We better buy war equipment. We better buy our weapons, our means of defense,” Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile, a former defense minister, told reporters.

Enrile issued the statement after Chinese vice foreign minister Fu Ying on Tuesday accused the Philippines of being responsible for escalating tensions over the disputed area in the South China Sea (also called West Philippine Sea).

“The Chinese side has… made all preparations to respond to any escalation of the situation by the Philippine side,” Fu reportedly told a Philippine diplomat.

Enrile said the Philippines should be prepared to face this head on.

“China is grabbing the place from us. Nagiging grabber na ang China. Anong gagawin mo kung ang kapitbahay mo, malayo ang bahay niya pero pupunta sa iyong kapaligiran at mayroon siyang espada, tampilan at pana o javelin. Di bumili ka rin ng tampilan. Maghasa ka rin ng gulok,” said Enrile.

Senator Gregorio Honasan, chairman of the Senate committee on public order and illegal drugs, supported Enrile’s sentiment but said the country should first pool its resources.

“Tama si Senate president [pero] alamin muna natin kung meron tayong pambili, importante yun,” Honasan said in a separate interview. Honasan is a former Army colonel who had served under Ernile at the Defense Ministry then.

since money is the problem, it is clearly a job for congress, to find the funds, and to do it fast.  in case diplomacy and non-violent protests fail.  and before we lose more territory.  parang this is just as, if not more, important than the corona trial, or the 2013 elections.  mag-multi-tasking sila.