Category: china

The National Interest

#AtinAngAyungin #AtinAngRecto

On the one hand, I’m glad former president Duterte and his Davao cohorts are on the side of more than 7 of 10 Filipinos vehemently against the Romualdez-Marcos chacha train(wreck).  On the other, I’m aghast that they’re so against PBBM rescinding Duterte’s “status quo” agreement  with China, the regional bully that some 7 of 10 Filipinos do not trust, and rightfully so, for obstreperously laying claim to and encroaching on our territorial waters and resources.

The threat, “that there will be trouble” if we dare bring construction and repair materials to the grounded BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin, or if we dare dig for oil and gas in Recto, should not stop us from standing up for our rights the way Indonesia and Malaysia did two years ago. Read Jarius Bondoc‘s 2023 column on Recto (Reed) Bank. https://www.philstar.com/opinion/2023/08/30/2292356/drill-recto-gas-oil-now-our-national-survival

Recto is 120 miles from Palawan, well within the Philippines’ 200-mile exclusive economic zone. It’s 650 miles from Hainan, China’s nearest province, thus outside its EEZ. The Hague arbitral court affirmed that in 2016. China can’t claim it by (an) imagined “nine-dash line.”

Recto has proven reserves. In 2013 the US Energy Information Administration estimated it to hold 5.4 billion barrels of oil and 55.1 trillion cubic feet of gas. That’s 63.5 times more oil and 20.5 times more gas than Malampaya, whose lifespan is only 24 or so years.

The Philippine government has long awarded Service Contract-72, covering Recto. Manuel V. Pangilinan’s PXP Energy Corp. and subsidiary Forum Energy Ltd. are ready to drill.

Trespassing Philippine EEZ, Chinese gunboats chased Forum’s vessels away several times. In 2020 the Duterte admin contemplated joint exploration with China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC). Talks failed as CNOOC’s terms violated the Philippine Constitution.

Forum remobilized foreign partners to drill. President Rody Duterte stopped it after receiving a call from Beijing, [Justice Antonio] Carpio recounts. “Twice Forum lost millions of pesos in false starts. Let it proceed now under Philippine Navy protection. National survival depends on it.”

Defy China.

“Let’s do it the way Malaysia and Indonesia did two years ago,” Carpio proposes.

… Beijing also claims Malaysia’s EEZ and Indonesia’s Natuna Isles. Invoking our Hague ruling as support, Malaysia held naval exercises with the US and Australia while drilling oil nearby. Indonesia invited a US aircraft carrier to sail by while drilling in Natuna.

On both occasions Beijing shrieked about owning the entire South China Sea by historical right. Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta ignored it. They’re reaping benefits from their petroleum resources, Carpio notes.

The Philippines can install rigs while holding drills with the US Navy under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. As well, with the British Admiralty because Forum was incorporated in London. A petroleum-sufficient Philippines will ease world demand and prices.

And here’s Fr. Ranhilio Callangan Aquino in a recent Manila Times column: https://www.manilatimes.net/2024/04/17/opinion/columns/gentlemen-and-the-status-quo/1941929

To those who would have us tremble before China’s might, fearful that it may unleash its volley of munitions against us, Justice Antonio Carpio, who has studied both the facts and the law on this case, allays such fears. China will think long and hard before it pushes the button of hostilities because it is cognizant of the Mutual Defense Treaty, which both the Philippines and the United States understand it today. There are those who urge the Philippines to junk the treaty and have long touted the line that the MDT did not cover such scenarios as armed hostilities against the Philippines initiated by the PROC. We now know that to be untrue. The US-Philippines Bilateral Guidelines as well as recent public statements of US President Biden leave no doubt about this.

Lately, China has dealt “the victim card” — naively echoed by some Western news outlets and chat programs. It claims to be the victim of a scheme of encirclement by the US, Australia, Japan and India — quaintly called the Quad. But it will be good to remember that this strategic alliance was born not from some smoky bar where the leaders of these countries had nothing better to do than to conjure alliances to threaten other countries. It arose rather when it had become undeniable that China was relentless in its expansionism, when border tensions with India were approaching boiling point, when it became apparent that its Belt and Road Initiative had allowed it strategic access to points it deemed crucial for its maritime, military and political ambitions. [bold mine]

Notwithstanding the fact that the PROC has thumbed its nose at the arbitral ruling in favor of the Philippines, one will not fail to notice that in every discussion on the South China Sea-West Philippine Sea dispute, the arbitral judgment that was resoundingly in our country’s favor comes up because a binding legal pronouncement as to our rights is always significant and undeniably confers ascendancy on us. It is in this light that I have long advocated that the unresolved disputes over territory should now be the subject of a case before the International Court of Justice or by some other competent international forum.

If this seems like putting undue trust in the workings of international law, my riposte has been constant: It is only the adherence of the community of nations to a rules-based order, the dominance of international law, that the fundamental principle of sovereign equality of States can be a reality in a world of glaring inequalities.

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Regional bully by Boo Chanco

A sellout of our sovereign rights by Joel Ruiz Butuyan

Can we defend our nation without America? Yes by Ricardo Saludo

Of disadvantageous treaties, sedition, and espionage by Jemy Gatdula

‘Coercive tactics’ by Ana Marie Pamintuan

Sierra Madre stays, Recto Bank ready for drilling

Looking back on my blogposts on China, I found in this one “our china relations, our u.s. alliance” a quote from Rodel Rodis‘s “What did Erap and GMA promise China?” (originally posted 9 years ago, sometime 2014, last edited 14 March 2021):

… on March 17, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei revealed in a press conference in Beijing that two previous Philippine presidents had made an “unequivocal commitment to China ”that the Philippines would tow away the Sierra Madre from the Ayungin Shoal. China demanded that Pres. Aquino “heed the promises” made by his predecessors otherwise, Hong Lei warned, the Philippines risks losing its “credibility”.

Fastforward to August 2023 when, upon China’s “reminder” that the Philippines had promised to tow away the BSP Sierra Madre from Ayungin, the question was, who made such an “unequivocal commitment”? Not Erap, said Sen. Jinggoy Estrada. Not me, said GMA.

Easy to believe them and disbelieve China that is known to make false claims especially about Philippine territory.  Jarius Bondoc suggests we move on, start drilling for gas and oil sa Recto Bank, now na, before Malampaya dries up.

Drill Recto gas, oil now for our national survival
Jarius Bondoc

Pointless to speculate which of two pro-China presidents promised to remove BRP Sierra Madre from Ayungin Shoal. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. already rescinded such deal, if it existed at all.

Just drill oil and gas at Recto (Reed) Bank. Do it now, or suffer economic collapse.

Malampaya offshore gas field will dry up by next year; 2027 at the latest. It fuels 40 percent of Luzon’s electricity. With no replacement for Malampaya, Luzon will suffer daylong blackouts.

That’ll be disastrous. Factories, offices, shops, telecoms, trains, schools, hospitals, hotels, restaurants, cinemas, churches will close. No work or classes from home either. Foreign investors will leave. Jobs will vanish. Urbanites will flee to provinces for scarce food. Linked to Luzon, even Visayas’ power grid will be disrupted.

Recto has proven reserves. In 2013 the US Energy Information Administration estimated it to hold 5.4 billion barrels of oil and 55.1 trillion cubic feet of gas. That’s 63.5 times more oil and 20.5 times more gas than Malampaya, whose lifespan is only 24 or so years.

“We’ve long known that,” says Benny Gan, retired petroleum geologist of the Department of Energy’s precursor, Office of Energy Affairs. In the 70’s OEA explored Recto’s Sampaguita field, only 250 feet deep. “It’s the main study in a roomful of reports, photos and videos.”

Recto is 120 miles from Palawan, well within the Philippines’ 200-mile exclusive economic zone. It’s 650 miles from Hainan, China’s nearest province, thus outside its EEZ. The Hague arbitral court affirmed that in 2016. China can’t claim it by imagined “nine-dash line.”

Although China snubbed the hearings, it’s bound by The Hague ruling under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Its state-owned China National Offshore Oil Corp. has no right to drill there.

CNOOC cannot subcontract to private exploration firms, retired Supreme Court justice Antonio Carpio says. Shell, Occidental, Exxon, among others, are bound by international law, so will shun CNOOC.

The Philippine government has long awarded Service Contract-72, covering Recto. Manuel V. Pangilinan’s PXP Energy Corp. and subsidiary Forum Energy Ltd. are ready to drill.

Trespassing Philippine EEZ, Chinese gunboats chased Forum’s vessels away several times. In 2020 the Duterte admin contemplated joint exploration with CNOOC. Talks failed as CNOOC’s terms violated Philippine Constitution.

Forum remobilized foreign partners to drill. President Rody Duterte stopped it after receiving a call from Beijing, Carpio recounts. “Twice Forum lost millions of pesos in false starts. Let it proceed now under Philippine Navy protection. National survival depends on it.”

Beijing anticipates drilling resumption. Its naval and coast guard ships, reinforced by maritime militia trawlers, are massing up at Del Pilar (Iroquois) Reef at Recto’s westside. Same at Escoda (Sabina) Shoal eastside. It wants to drive away the beached BRP Sierra Madre from Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal inside Recto.

Defy China. “Let’s do it the way Malaysia and Indonesia did two years ago,” Carpio proposes.

Beijing also claims Malaysia’s EEZ and Indonesia’s Natuna Isles. Invoking our Hague ruling as support, Malaysia held naval exercises with the US and Australia while drilling oil nearby. Indonesia invited a US aircraft carrier to sail by while drilling in Natuna.

On both occasions Beijing shrieked about owning the entire South China Sea by historical right. Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta ignored it. They’re reaping benefits from their petroleum resources, Carpio notes.

The Philippines can install rigs while holding drills with the US Navy under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. As well, with the British Admiralty because Forum was incorporated in London. A petroleum-sufficient Philippines will ease world demand and prices.

Beijing will avoid military confrontation, Carpio calculates. An attack on Filipino government vessels escorting Forum drillers will trigger the Phl-US Mutual Defense Treaty. China Communist Party’s National Congress and Politburo have decided to take control of SCS by intimidation, not war.

“Oil and gas from Recto will save our economy,” Carpio says. “Let Beijing howl. We’ll have our fuel. What better way to assert our EEZ sovereign rights!”

Sampaguita field can pump petroleum via pipeline 150 kilometers northeast to Malampaya. The latter can in turn pump to Batangas in mainland Luzon via its existing 504-kilometer pipeline.

“If not for us circling Malampaya, China would have annexed it long ago,” a ranking PN officer confides. In 2020 a Chinese warship aimed weapons at a PN patrol there. “We’re ready to defend Recto too,” another admiral assures.

Upon operationalizing Sampaguita, other sovereignty measures can follow:

• Erect an Ayungin lighthouse to replace disintegrating Sierra Madre. The 2002 ASEAN-China Declaration of Conduct among SCS disputants bars military buildup. A civilian lighthouse is allowable, says geopolitics expert Renato de Castro, PhD.

• Sue China for damages at The Hague or the International Tribunal for Law of the Sea. The Philippines and Forum can compute opportunities lost from China’s menacing since 2007, says international maritime lawyer Jay Batongbacal, PhD.

• Exact recompense for China’s fish poaching and destruction of reef resources, like rare metals and new medicines, at Escoda, Del Pilar and Recto. Also, for concreting nearby Panganiban (Mischief) Reef into an island-fortress since 1992.

The late foreign secretary Albert del Rosario had totaled it at $662 million per year. Assisting him, marine scientist Deo Florence Onda, PhD, calculated the wrecked resources at $353,429 per hectare per year, based on the 2012 Studies on Global Ecosystems by Dutch firm Elsevier, world leader in scientific-technical-medical information.

China’s repolyo strategy @Ayungin Shoal

Ano nga ba ang nakikinitang endgame ng China sa pagharang nito sa ating mga bangkang maydalang pagkain, tubig, atbp. para sa 8-man contingent ng BRP Sierra Madre, military outpost natin sa Ayungin shoal, na teritoryo natin, hindi ng China.

Noong 2013, a year after the Scarborough scandal, ito ang sabi ng isang Maj. Gen. Zhang Zhaozhong ng China’s People Liberation Army kay Jeff Himmelman ng New York Times Magazine.

He described a “cabbage strategy,” which entails surrounding a contested area with so many boats — fishermen, fishing administration ships, marine surveillance ships, navy warships — that “the island is thus wrapped layer by layer like a cabbage.”

… Of taking territory from the Philippines, he said: “We should do more such things in the future. For those small islands, only a few troopers are able to station on each of them, but there is no food or even drinking water there. If we carry out the cabbage strategy, you will not be able to send food and drinking water onto the islands. Without the supply for one or two weeks, the troopers stationed there will leave the islands on their own. Once they have left, they will never be able to come back.”

Dagdag pa ni Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, director of Asia-Pacific programs at the U.S. Institute of Peace:

Nothing in China happens overnight. Any move you see was planned and prepared for years, if not more. So obviously this maritime issue is very important to China.” https://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/10/27/south-china-sea/index.html

Fast forward to 2023. According to the AFP’s early July air patrols, there was a swarm of more than 50 Chinese “fishing” vessels in the vicinity of Sabina Shoal, not far from Ayungin. Na nadagdagan pa noong August 5, nang i-water-cannon ang ating Coast Guard.

In the Aug. 5 incident, there were additionally some 12 Chinese militia vessels aside from the six Chinese Coast Guard  ships in the area, according to AFP Western Command chief Vice Admiral Alberto Carlos. “These fishing vessels are really militia… they seem to be working (and) taking orders from the Chinese Coast Guard.” https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2023/08/11/2287783/afp-eyes-maritime-militia-wps 

Five days after the water-cannon affront, the West Philippine Sea was still aswarm with mostly Chinese vessels.

CARLOS. … as far as the entire WPS, based on our last monitoring, close to 500 or more than 400. But that is just an estimate because there might be duplication of sightings,” he said.

Last monitoring was just yesterday on August 10, in Mischief Reef alone, there were 191. Around 85 percent are Chinese vessels,” he added.

Ito na mismo ang repolyo strategy at work: pinapalibutan, binabakuran, ng China ang Ayungin ng sapinsaping mga bangka at barko  ng mga mangingisda kuno, pero marine surveillance ships at navy warships sa totoo.  Layers of boats and ships pretending to be loaded with  fishermen, na papalapit nang palalapit sa BRP Sierra Madre. Ang goal ay malinaw: ma-takeover ang Ayungin nang walang putukan, as in, takutan lang, with water cannons and laser threats and the like. Gray zone tactics that the U.S deems below the threshold of military warfare.

‘Ika ni Ray Powell, director of SeaLight at the Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation at Stanford University:

… China operate[s] in the “gray zone” by carrying out actions just below what might be considered acts of war but that achieve the same result — Beijing gaining territory or control without firing a shot.

… The Sierra Madre is visibly rusting away, it is becoming structurally unsound. At some point it will begin to breakup and otherwise become uninhabitable.  At which point china’s strategy works because all they have to do then is sort of ‘rescue’ the poor Philippine sailors off the shoal because they’re the only people around.

And then they will control the shoal.

Unless something changes, that is what will happen. It’s just a matter of when it will happen.

WHAT NOW

Matagal nang pahirapan ang pagpaparating ng supplies at repair materials sa BRP Sierra Madre. Ang tanong ngayon: Is China revving up for a full-court press kumbaga, as in, wala nang supplies na palulusutin?

Ayon kay Manny Mogato ng PressOne:

China has been waiting for the ship [BRP Sierra Madre] to collapse but the Philippines has been trying to save it by reinforcing it with cement and steel.

On Aug. 5 … The Chinese Coast Guard accused the Philippines of bringing in construction materials to BRP Sierra Madre, blocking the boats and using a water cannon to prevent the vessels from getting near BRP Sierra Madre.

One of the wooden boats made it though. The shallow waters around BRP Sierra Madre prevented the large Chinese vessels from following it. The other boat left after evading too much pressure from the water cannon.

Sa palagay naman ni Alex Magno ng PhilStar:

This [Aug 5] incident is not an accidental one.

This will be the standard Chinese tactic from hereon. They will try to disrupt every resupply mission, hoping that we eventually throw up our arms and decide it is too costly to maintain that small detachment on Ayungin.

China has initiated a severe test of wills. They will continue to cram the waters they claim with Coast Guard and “militia” vessels. All these prowling vessels will try to intercept every Filipino vessel that moves into what they claim is their territory.

At heto ang reaction ni Ex-Foreign Affairs Sec., now PH Ambassador to the UK, Teddy Locsin sa August 10 pahayag ni AFP Chief of Staff Romeo Brawner Jr. na balak ng gobiyernong mag-deploy ng naval reservists sa West Ph Sea.

TEDDY LOCSIN. We’re gonna need gunboats—more of ours out there, the higher risk of misencounter triggering the Mutual Defense Treaty—and ending its vacuities. Brawner is right; we gotta be all over the arena so our only military ally knows it isn’t a shadow play. A war for real is coming. 

Yes. A war for real. Without shades of gray. Because Ayungin is ours, #AtinAngAyungin, no ifs or buts.

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A Game of Shark and Minnow

‘Little blue men’: Is a militia Beijing says doesn’t exist causing trouble in the South China Sea?

AFP eyes maritime militia in WPS 

Philippines should take action vs. China’s ‘gray zone’ tactics —experts 

Water cannon incident confirms Chinese fishing vessels are militia – WESCOM 

‘Creeping invasion’ — Walk the talk, Gibo tells China 

Scarborough Shoal and the Spratlys in ancient maps

Between America and China…

Scarborough Shoal and the Spratlys in ancient maps

A timely reminder given the now very convoluted discourse about China because of our renewed, refreshed, “special relationship” with the US.

The frame of reference for the 1900 Treaty of Washington’s definition of the Philippine territory was the Murillo Velarde map, which included the Spratlys and the Scarborough Shoal, But still, China’s position is that Philippine territory is limited to the islands enclosed by the polygonal lines drawn in the 1898 Treaty of Paris. Justice Carpio said that China did not participate in the Arbitral proceedings, but “by officially submitting its Position Paper to the Arbitral Tribunal, China expressly and formally recognized that Philippine territory is defined by three treaties, including the 1900 Treaty of Washington… China is forever estopped from claiming that Philippine territory is limited to the islands enclosed by the Treaty of Paris.” 

By AMELIA H.C. YLAGAN  

. . . . Justice Carpio, who was the guest of honor and main speaker at the Alliance Française, said “the 1734 Murillo Velarde map is a living document because it determines Philippine territory today, that is, Philippine territory cannot be determined without this map.” This oldest Philippine map of “Las Yslas Filipinas” is the official Spanish Government map showing Philippine territory during the Spanish regime. It shows Panacot (Scarborough Shoal) and Los Bajos de Paragua (the Spratlys) as part of Philippine territory, Justice Carpio said. None of these islands drawn in this Murillo Velarde map appeared in China’s maps from centuries ago.

“The map debunks once and for all, the Chinese historical narrative that China has owned the South China Sea for 200 years. Now the world knows better. Thanks to the definitive ruling of the Arbitral Tribunal, China’s historical narrative has been exposed as fake news. The map proves, beyond any shadow of doubt, that Spratlys and Scarborough Shoal were part of the Philippine territory as early as 1734,” Justice Carpio had said at a lecture at the Ateneo de Manila University in 2017.

At the Alliance Française opening, Justice Carpio explained that the aggressiveness of China in claiming the Spratlys and Scarborough Shoal started with the 1898 Treaty of Paris, after the Spanish-American war, when Spain ceded to the United States the archipelago known as the Philippine Islands in exchange for $20 million to ratify the Treaty. Spain might have missed the Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal, putting these outside the western side of the polygonal lines of the Philippines in the Treaty of Paris.

But the United States noticed the exclusion, and demanded a revision of the map for the revised treaty, called the 1900 Treaty of Washington, which provided that “Spain relinquishes to the United all title and all claim of title, which she may have had at the time of the conclusion of the Treaty of Peace of Paris, to any and all islands belonging to the Philippine Archipelago, lying outside the lines described in Article III of that Treaty and particularly to the islands of Cagayan (Mapun), Sulu and Sibutu and their dependencies, and agrees that all such islands shall be comprehended in the cession of the Archipelago as fully as if they had been expressly included within those lines.”

The frame of reference for the 1900 Treaty of Washington’s definition of the Philippine territory was the Murillo Velarde map, which included the Spratlys and the Scarborough Shoal, But still, China’s position is that Philippine territory is limited to the islands enclosed by the polygonal lines drawn in the 1898 Treaty of Paris. Justice Carpio said that China did not participate in the Arbitral proceedings, but “by officially submitting its Position Paper to the Arbitral Tribunal, China expressly and formally recognized that Philippine territory is defined by three treaties, including the 1900 Treaty of Washington… China is forever estopped from claiming that Philippine territory is limited to the islands enclosed by the Treaty of Paris.”

It was only in 1947 that China started to claim the Spratlys, Justice Carpio said. Scarborough Shoal appears in a 1948 Chinese map, named Si-ka-ba-luo, a Chinese transliteration of the English name Scarborough, The shoal was named by Captain Philip D’Auvergne, whose East India Company ship East Indiaman Scarborough grounded on one of the rocks on Sept. 12, 1784, before sailing on to China although it already had a Spanish name recorded in the 1734 Murillo Velarde map of Spanish Philippines (W. Gilbert [1804] A New Nautical Directory for the East-India and China Navigation .., pp.480-482).

The Carta Hydrographica y Chorographica de las Islas Filipinas, the Murillo Velarde 1734 map is indeed the “Mother of all Philippine Maps,” a “Living Document” to history, as Justice Carpio says.

Filipinos thank Justice Antonio Carpio for his unrelenting fight for Philippine territory and maritime sovereignty in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea).

We thank Former Secretary of Foreign Affairs and Ambassador Albert del Rosario, who had fought together with Justice Carpio for Philippine rights on the seas. Ambassador del Rosario, 83, passed away on April 18. May he rest in peace.