Category: america

Pax Silica Ph

The news broke on the 18th, that we had signed up for Pax Silica, a 4000-acre economic-security zone project of (with?) the U.S. along a Luzon economic corridor, ostensibly to reduce supply chain dependence on China for semiconductors and AI technology. My first reaction was wow! that’s a lot of land, on what terms kaya, do we share in the profits, may technology transfer ba, done deal na ba, at kung anoano pa. On second thought, I wondered if this is why PBBM seems so relaxed about this worsening economic crisis upon us, exacerbated by Trump’s war on Iran — because he knows na hindi tayo papabayaan ng Amerika, kailangan niya tayo for Pax Silica in this Pacific outpost? The Kilusang Magbubukid ng Pilipinas has already declared it a “massive sellout” of the country’s land, minerals, and sovereignty. Been waiting for the pundits to weigh in. Here’s a first from Philippine Star’s Cito Beltran who wonders if it’s just a PR story, a puff piece, meant only to distract.

‘TO SEE IS TO BELIEVE’
by Cito Beltran
April 20 2026

All the rumors about the United States building economic zones, ship building facilities and now a 4,000-acre “Economic Security Zone” has started to get tongues wagging, with netizens sharing and reposting news articles about the subject.

Early this year, a Subic resident mentioned that there were “plans” by the US government to put up a ship building facility inside SBMA. But some locals suspect that it was a ploy to put up a military base instead.

And after just a few months, mainstream media and online news sources reported that the United States and the Philippines have gone beyond talking but are already in the early stages of putting together a proposed agreement.

Some of the details mentioned are that the land area involves 4,000 acres or 1,619 hectares, will be rent free, covered by diplomatic immunity, will operate under US Common law, covered by a two-year lease renewable for 99 years.

The area will be purposely built as an “Economic Security Zone” to be administered by the United States and available for US companies engaged in manufacturing defense and key industries who may hire US or local personnel as needed.

Another focus of these reports is that US investors are expected to level up the minerals extraction practices currently done in the region, particularly in the Philippines.

Instead of shipping raw materials, the US companies would process raw nickel, copper, chromite and cobalt and rare minerals, pass on the said materials to manufacturers inside the economic zone or export them to the mainland for use in defense and AI technology manufacturing.

At this point, it is important to be reminded that from the looks of it, the whole thing is still an idea or at the “conceptual stage” as mentioned in an online article of the Wall Street Journal.

There seems to be no mention of an exact location for the proposed US Economic Security Zone, which may be intentional in order to draw out local governments who are willing to embrace the proposed zone and to avoid political backlash if an area is pre-selected or mentioned.

As word gets out and the idea solidifies in people’s imagination, it would certainly create a competitive climate among local governments (provinces/towns) to become the site of a labor rich project, even if they collect no taxes.

Laborers need transportation, food, etc. Those needs play right into the businesses of local politicians and their families who often control local transport, stores and groceries and even fast-food chain outlets.

As you go through the alleged plan or provisions for the “US Economic Security Zone,” it is filled with highly controversial provisions, which from the looks of it may be “click bait” by design.

Since when do we start “giving away land” as in allowing foreign governments to occupy 4,000 acres of land rent free? Officials on both sides know that that would trigger an outcry from nationalists, leftists and politicians looking for two minutes of fame.

The idea of asking or giving diplomatic immunity for a 4,000-acre “Economic Security Zone” and agreeing that US common law applies within that zone is equivalent to giving the US sovereignty over Philippine land and a direct violation of the Constitution.

If US common law prevails within the Economic Security Zone, does it follow that it operates like a US military base or will Filipino workers, visitors or government officials be required to secure a US visa or a special purpose visa?

If officials or personnel of the zone commit a crime outside the zone, similar to the sex-related crimes committed by servicemen, etc., is there a provision that the suspects or accused will be surrendered to Philippine authorities “posthaste”?

Or will locals have to submit to the judicial process of a court within the zone or worse, travel to the nearest US territory like Guam or Hawaii? Does having US common law in effect mean the zone will have its own police and court of law?

In terms of mutually beneficial agreements, what is the benefit of putting up the zone to the Philippines? The US companies buy raw materials and pay cheap for them, yes, there will be employment but for how many, what type of jobs? Will they also get US salary rates?

This entire idea, concept or even “story” simply makes no sense, if not unbelievable. It is like leaving rotten fish in the open to attract all the flies. In journalism, it could be a political trial balloon to find out what the public or media reaction will be.

If the numerous articles now circulating in mass media does not “raise Cain,” it may signal to the governments and officials concerned to go right ahead.

In the world of politics and PR, it could be a win/win distraction story meant to distract the public from their difficulties and hardship that could push government into crisis.

On the other hand, the story could be a “puff piece” designed to create a positive impression or raise investor confidence by highlighting the willingness of the US government to create, operate and manage an export processing zone.

As a final point, this story is yet again an example of the government’s failure to communicate with its citizens. Why do we have to learn about the plan from a foreign media outlet and posts of the US embassy instead of the PCOO?

In the end: “To see is to believe.”

Melania mystifies, distracts from Donald?

While struggling to make sense of government (including legislative) efforts to address the economic crisis brought on by our utter dependence on imported stuff, from petroleum products to essential foodstuff, and while keeping track as best I can of what is really going on with Trump and Netanyahu and the on-again off-again savage war vs. Iran and Gaza and Lebanon, here comes Melania Trump in a suprise press conference denying allegations of any sexual relationship with either the “disgraceful” Epstein or Maxwell, and even calling for Congress to give a hearing to victims of Mr. Epstein’s crimes. This, a few days after Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said the Epstein Files should not be part of anything going forward.” It is said that Trump knew nothing about it and Fox News and the rest of media are baffled: Why now? And then again, why not now. Something’s coming down, malamang?

Melania Trump’s surprise Epstein statement prompts bafflement
The Guardian

Melania Trump’s surprise statement denying she had any relationship with Jeffrey Epstein sparked confusion about why she had chosen to speak out, and whether Donald Trump knew that the first lady was planning to draw attention to a subject he has called for the public to move on from.

Even normally well-sourced correspondents for rightwing outlets were at a loss to explain why Melania Trump felt the need to issue the seemingly out-of-the-blue statement about her relationship with Epstein, the late sex offender who socialized with her husband for nearly two decades, or his accomplice Ghislaine Maxwell.

The Fox News senior White House correspondent Jacqui Heinrich said that she and her team were baffled.

“We’ve been trying to understand why she made it today, if there was something that she is reacting to that might already be in the news that has upset her, or if there’s a story that’s yet to come out, that’s about to drop that she wanted to get ahead of,” Heinrich told Fox viewers. “Because it did feel like it came out of left field for us. … I’ve called every contact in my phone, including the president, and not gotten any answers.”

The New York Post, which, like Fox, is owned by Rupert Murdoch and often acts like an arm of the Trump White House communications team, was also puzzled. “It’s unclear why the first lady chose to hold the press event at a time when the White House is trying to move on from the Epstein saga that has been a drag on her husband’s second term,” the New York tabloid reported.

Marc Beckman, a senior adviser to the first lady, told the Post only that she “spoke out now because enough is enough”.

“The lies must stop,” Beckman added in his cryptic statement. “It is time for the public and media to focus on her incredible achievements as first lady, the lives she has positively impacted, and her commitment to our nation.” Read on

Trump & fake news

When I heard him on CNN saying that “productive negotiations” with Iran were ongoing, I decided not to believe him until Iran confirmed it — and Iran didn’t, fake news daw — but stock markets rose and oil prices fell anyway. Nobelist economist Paul Krugman is thinking insider trading. 

ADVENTURES IN FANTASY DIPLOMACY 
Paul Krugman
March 23 2026 

It’s Monday morning. Donald trump has for the time being called off plans to bomb Iran’s civilian infrastructure. He has done so because, according to him, highly productive negotiations are underway involving the government of Iran and an invisible six-foot white rabbit and his Canadian girlfriend.

Hi, I’m Paul Krugman. What I just said is not strictly true. Or it’s not all true. Trump did not say anything about the invisible rabbit or the Canadian… but the gist of it is true.  He said that there’s highly productive talks underway, and shortly afterwards the Iranian government and Iranian state media said no, they aren’t, this isn’t happening.

Not gonna say that Iranian state media is necessarily a credible source but the odds are that they are in fact telling the truth and the president of the United States is either lying or  fantasizing, or both. There’s really no reason at all to believe that anything like what he said is happening is in fact happening.

Why do I say that, aside from the fact that Trump has not exactly been truthful about a lot of things. Beyond that, there are three important reasons to believe he might be making this stuff up.

First, he put himself in a very bad spot with his threat to commit a massive war crime if Iran doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz, and must be looking for a way out. Another president in another time might say that, on careful consideration we have recalibrated the policy, or something like that. Trump doesn’t do that. Trump is always winning. Never admits that he’s had a setback, never admits that he’s changed his mind. So, saying that, oh, but the Iranians have, you know, come to the table, probably big strong Iranians with tears in their eyes, but anyway, that the Iranians have come to the table and that’s why we’re not doing what I said we would do is a very Trumpian out.

Second, why would the Iranians be making a deal at this point? We can talk a lot about how the war is going, but it’s pretty clear that, as the Iranians are likely to see it, they’re winning. I mean, they’re not winning militarily, but that was never on the cards. They are… they have successfully turned what was supposed to be a lightning decapitation of their government into a protracted contest in relative ability to bear pain. And all indications are that the Iranians are nowhere near cracking. And all indications are that the U.S. — although obviously we’re not losing thousands of people and we aren’t having our whole life disrupted, but the American public really doesn’t like higher gas prices — it does not believe Trump. The clock is ticking for Trump on this in a way that it’s apparently not for the Iranian regime. So Iran has the upper hand here. Very hard to see why they would be wanting to make a deal until they basically humiliated us substantially more.

Finally, consider possible motives. Imagine that you were somebody close to Trump, somebody close enough to actually have an influence on his decisions, as well as inside knowledge. Here’s what you could have done. Really, just between last night and now: you could have sold a bunch of crude oil futures at very high prices. Brent was over $112 over the weekend. Then bought them back immediately after Trump’s announcement of, you know, triumphal progress, but before the Iranians said that it is not happening. And you know you could have turned a very very nice very large profit.

To say that insider trading might be driving US policy would have been outrageous in the past. Who thinks that that’s beyond the realm of possibility now. So all of this could be happening.

Last point to make here. Think about how much America’s position in the world has been weakened not just by apparent failure to subdue a fourth rate power but by the fact that everybody now knows that you cannot trust anything, cannot trust any promises the US makes. You cannot count on the US carrying through with promises [or] with threats. Not just promises, but threats are also not incredible in the sense of not being at all credible. And that the default assumption should be that anything that this administration says is a lie. That is a really really bad thing.

That we’re [a] world power is not simply a matter of missiles and bombs although we seem to be running low on those, too. It’s very much a matter of people taking what you say and what you promise and what you threaten seriously, and we are not ruled by serious people.

Have a great day. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tc120RAcx48

EDSA, Iran, Trump

In the early days of Trump’s and Netanyahu’s madly unsustainable killer attempt to bring about “regime change” in Iran, two Manila Times columnists opined on our EDSA event forty years ago. “WAs EDSA 1 not an American project?” tanong ng isa, in effect saying, reminding kuno, na EDSA was a “regime change” event na pakanâ ng Amerika. Sabi ng isa pa, tiyak na may kinalaman ang C.I.A. sa snap election returns at dapat ay i-declassify ng U.S. government ang records of that event, now na, para magkalinawan.

Expected naman ang ganyan from loyalists who don’t think, or know, much of People Power circa 1986. So, dedma. Besides I was deep into browsing the internet, needing to understand the Trump-Netanyahu War for World Domination. Until a day or so ago, nabasa ko itong “Iran: Scenarios and odds” ni Stephen CuUnjieng, also of the Manila Times.

For CuUnjieng there is no telling how long Iran’s active resistance will last, which would depend on how much pain they can take, and that could be a lot and for long, given the successful outcomes of “asymmetric warfare” in Vietnam and Afghanistan. Also, depending on how fast its weapons stockpiles are depleted or destroyed. But regime change?

With the Vietnamese and Afghans, the effect was largely limited to their area and the cost to their enemy. Alas, with Iran, it affects the Middle East more broadly through the cost and supply of oil, and the social and political order in the region. The US and its ally Israel may find out yet again that when you throw a stick, it may be a boomerang.

As noted by others on regime change, it is hard to make work and has rarely worked when caused by an invasion. When it works like the Velvet Revolution in then-Czechoslovakia (now peacefully divided into the Czech Republic and Slovakia) and EDSA, it came from within. There can be help from outside, but the impetus for change and the alternative needs to be internally driven. As the Buddhists say, change comes from many countries, including China, which is one of our major suppliers of gasoline and diesel within.

Salamat nang marami, Stephen CuUnjieng! Indeed EDSA “came from within” and “was internally driven” — the Americans knew about RAM planning to kill and replace Ver and some of them approved, and they helped RAM with intel, but they had nothing to do with Cory or the civil disobedience and crony boycott campaign or Butz’s call for people to march to EDSA and shield the military from Marcos forces [Cardinal Sin echoed Butz only after a lot of dillydallying].

Two more points to keep in mind:

Besides the military cost, there is the economic cost in price, availability and activity of oil. Brent Oil was $59 on Dec. 17. On March 9, it breached (proper use of the word unlike in much of Philippine journalism as breach means to exceed with a negative connotation) $111, and as of March 11 was around $93, or a 57-percent increase in three months. Then there is availability as the Strait of Hormuz is basically shut down for shipping so there goes the supply chain. Many countries, including China — which is one of our major suppliers of gasoline and diesel — have curtailed exports to reserve supplies for themselves.

And this.

Bloomberg’s weekend email on March 7 quotes the excellent interview Mishal Husein had with Bernard Haykel of Princeton (available on YouTube) which was very insightful. He says there are three ways the war can end — “the regime could fall. It could stay but soften its stance and cut a deal with the US. Or it could simply hold on and survive — but “hardened even further in its determination to be a revisionist power.” The last one is the most likely.

To my mind, it all hinges in, on, Trump’s head. I checked out his astrological birthchart and I’m not surprised to find that he has Sun in Gemini (sign of the lower mind) opposed to his Moon in Sagittarius (higher mind) — he’s pronouncedly two-minded (if not multiply-minded) about everything, this and that, below above, maybe certainly, we did we didn’t, at nangingibabaw ang kababawan. AND his ascendant is on the cusp of Leo and Virgo, signs of the lion, the commander|performer, and of the perfectionist.

Trump’s not as dumb as many think, just open to every game worth winning by elitist capitalist standards and more than well-connected enough to be untouchable, especially while he’s president, if he stays president. The Virgo in him hates to be criticized, and he is being widely and wildly criticized now for being goaded into this war that he cannot win, the Iranians are going for broke. So I pray na kakayanin niya to call a ceasefire soon, make a deal, give in some, surprise us all, change his mind as he has done before, maybe tomorrow, as I pray every night, surely long before the November midterm elections. Hope springs.