Category: edsa

EDSA, Iran, Trump

In the early days of Trump’s and Netanyahu’s madly unsustainable killer attempt to bring about “regime change” in Iran, two Manila Times columnists opined on our EDSA event forty years ago. “WAs EDSA 1 not an American project?” tanong ng isa, in effect saying, reminding kuno, na EDSA was a “regime change” event na pakanâ ng Amerika. Sabi ng isa pa, tiyak na may kinalaman ang C.I.A. sa snap election returns at dapat ay i-declassify ng U.S. government ang records of that event, now na, para magkalinawan.

Expected naman ang ganyan from loyalists who don’t think, or know, much of People Power circa 1986. So, dedma. Besides I was deep into browsing the internet, needing to understand the Trump-Netanyahu War for World Domination. Until a day or so ago, nabasa ko itong “Iran: Scenarios and odds” ni Stephen CuUnjieng, also of the Manila Times.

For CuUnjieng there is no telling how long Iran’s active resistance will last, which would depend on how much pain they can take, and that could be a lot and for long, given the successful outcomes of “asymmetric warfare” in Vietnam and Afghanistan. Also, depending on how fast its weapons stockpiles are depleted or destroyed. But regime change?

With the Vietnamese and Afghans, the effect was largely limited to their area and the cost to their enemy. Alas, with Iran, it affects the Middle East more broadly through the cost and supply of oil, and the social and political order in the region. The US and its ally Israel may find out yet again that when you throw a stick, it may be a boomerang.

As noted by others on regime change, it is hard to make work and has rarely worked when caused by an invasion. When it works like the Velvet Revolution in then-Czechoslovakia (now peacefully divided into the Czech Republic and Slovakia) and EDSA, it came from within. There can be help from outside, but the impetus for change and the alternative needs to be internally driven. As the Buddhists say, change comes from many countries, including China, which is one of our major suppliers of gasoline and diesel within.

Salamat nang marami, Stephen CuUnjieng! Indeed EDSA “came from within” and “was internally driven” — the Americans knew about RAM planning to kill and replace Ver and some of them approved, and they helped RAM with intel, but they had nothing to do with Cory or the civil disobedience and crony boycott campaign or Butz’s call for people to march to EDSA and shield the military from Marcos forces [Cardinal Sin echoed Butz only after a lot of dillydallying].

Two more points to keep in mind:

Besides the military cost, there is the economic cost in price, availability and activity of oil. Brent Oil was $59 on Dec. 17. On March 9, it breached (proper use of the word unlike in much of Philippine journalism as breach means to exceed with a negative connotation) $111, and as of March 11 was around $93, or a 57-percent increase in three months. Then there is availability as the Strait of Hormuz is basically shut down for shipping so there goes the supply chain. Many countries, including China — which is one of our major suppliers of gasoline and diesel — have curtailed exports to reserve supplies for themselves.

And this.

Bloomberg’s weekend email on March 7 quotes the excellent interview Mishal Husein had with Bernard Haykel of Princeton (available on YouTube) which was very insightful. He says there are three ways the war can end — “the regime could fall. It could stay but soften its stance and cut a deal with the US. Or it could simply hold on and survive — but “hardened even further in its determination to be a revisionist power.” The last one is the most likely.

To my mind, it all hinges in, on, Trump’s head. I checked out his astrological birthchart and I’m not surprised to find that he has Sun in Gemini (sign of the lower mind) opposed to his Moon in Sagittarius (higher mind) — he’s pronouncedly two-minded (if not multiply-minded) about everything, this and that, below above, maybe certainly, we did we didn’t, at nangingibabaw ang kababawan. AND his ascendant is on the cusp of Leo and Virgo, signs of the lion, the commander|performer, and of the perfectionist.

Trump’s not as dumb as many think, just open to every game worth winning by elitist capitalist standards and more than well-connected enough to be untouchable, especially while he’s president, if he stays president. The Virgo in him hates to be criticized, and he is being widely and wildly criticized now for being goaded into this war that he cannot win, the Iranians are going for broke. So I pray na kakayanin niya to call a ceasefire soon, make a deal, give in some, surprise us all, change his mind as he has done before, maybe tomorrow, as I pray every night, surely long before the November midterm elections. Hope springs.

EDSA@40 Recalling the Boycott

Top of my Facebook feed 22 Feb was a video posted by quo-warranto’d CJ Meilou Sereno —  “Paano Kaya Nangyari ang EDSA People Power” — na tungkol lang sa Enrile-Ramos-RAM defection after Marcos cheated in the snap election, and how the people came to support them and stop tanks.  Di man lang nabanggit si Cory and her audacious non-violent civil disobedience campaign and the six days of crony boycotts that had the economy reeling in the run-up to EDSA.

Pinapalabas na all it took for the people to march to EDSA was Cardinal Sin‘s permission, hindi na bale si Butz Aquino na unang nag-call for a non-violent response, at nag-second-the-motion lang sort of si Cardinal, as in, “those of you who wish to help should do so…”  makalipas ang twenty minutes of pagdadalawang-isip. Walang acknowledgement o pagkilala na may pinanggalingan na higanteng protesta ang milyon-milyong Coryista; wala ring paliwanag kung bakit nga ba kumilos ang mga Coryista para protektahan si Enrile na “architect” of martial law — siya ang sumulat ng Proclamation 1081 — at kilalang crony ni Marcos.

Sa totoo lang, kung hindi sa higanteng protesta ni Cory, kung hindi siya nagtawag ng boycott of crony businesses to bring down the economy and compel Marcos to step down, na agad sinakyan ng milyon-milyong Coryista, malamang ay nilangaw ang EDSA.

Salamat sa biyuda ni Ninoy, kakaiba na noon ang ihip ng hangin. Mapanghimagsik na ang timpla ng taongbayan, punong-puno bigla ng pag-asa, sabik sa naamoy na pagbabago, noong bisperas ng EDSA. Kung walang naganap na defection, malamang ay sa Mendiola at Malacañang nagmartsa at umeksena ang People Power.

From Himagsikan sa EDSA–Walang Himala! (2000)
Mahalagang isaisip na noong nag-aklas sina Enrile at Ramos, pitong (7) araw nang nag-aaklas ang mga Coryista. Ibang klaseng pag-aaklas nga lang – hindi armadong pakikibaka kundi simpleng pagsuway sa Awtoridad at di-pagtangkilik sa mga produkto at serbisyo ng crony economy. Tandang-tanda ko pa ang maigting na sigla at tensyon ng panahong iyon. High na high at sakay na sakay sa kampanyang boykot ang sampung milyong Pilipino na bumoto kay Cory – binitawan ang nakasanayang peryodiko at lumipat sa mga diyaryo ng alternative press, iwinaksi ang paboritong beer at gin at nag-trip sa whiskey at lambanog, inisnab ang paboritong softdrinks at dairy products at nawili sa buko juice, dirty ice cream, at kesong puti. Naisip ko na tuwang-tuwa siguro ang mga nasyonalista’t aktibista pagkat sa isang iglap, naibaling ng madlang mamimili ang tangkilik sa mga produkto ng maliliit na negosyong Pinoy. Higit pa, nagustuhan namin ang natikman at nalanghap na pagbabago. Namulat sa katotohanang okey din pala ang lokal at puwede nga palang magbago ng ugali o kabihasnan.

From EDSA Uno, Dos Tres (2013)
The first six days of the boycott are always glossed over, remembered only, if at all, as prelude, along with the snap elections.

Yet those early days were extraordinary and quite memorable on a personal plane for the millions who voted for Cory in the Snap Election of 1986, and, when she was cheated, who merrily complied with her boycott call and changed consumption habits overnight. There was nothing ideological about it, no sense of alternative economics as a long-term option. Rather, it was purely political, to derail the economy, and only until Marcos conceded to Cory.

It was a heady, giddy, intoxicating time of engagement in political change, beyond the ballot. The boycott was in the realm of the personal, on the level of where to bank and shop, which newspapers to read, what dairy products to feast on, what softdrinks and beer to get high on. And because it wasn’t always clear which brands were tainted and which were not, some of us played safe and simply eschewed all advertised goods. We turned to unbranded homegrown stuff like kesong puti, “dirty” ice cream, fresh fruits and juices, and local spirits like lambanog. We reveled in it. I remember thinking how thrilled nationalists must be—finally Filipinos, whose buying habits were generally shaped by TV commercials, were finding out that local stuff by small entrepreneurs was good, too, if not better on all sorts of levels.

Best of all, Filipinos were finding that change, while daunting and disconcerting at first, could turn provocative and mind-blowing and consciousness-raising, reinforced by a mosquito press that daily reported how more and more people, left, right and center, rich and poor, were joining the bandwagon, and how crony banks and businesses were running and reeling.

The personal was political, indeed. What a revolutionary mind trip it was.

Of course, the boycott was too good to last. Big Business, crony and not, could not allow it to go on much longer. And to this day, no one likes to talk about it. Bakit kaya.

Imee, EDSA, Venezuela

Hindi lang pala si Imelda, pati si Imee Marcos ay sinasabing kinidnap sila, when asked by Karen Davila to comment on “what the U.S. has done to Venezuela.”

IMEE MARCOS: … There’s a personal history here. And that’s 1986. As far as my father and my family were concerned, nakidnap kami. Napunta kami sa Anderson Air Base in American planes. We ended up in Guam, thereafter in Hickam Air Base in Honolulu. As far as my father was concerned, it was an outright kidnap. … Hindi ko sinasabi na eksaktong pareho, pero nangyari. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvbUBPhpl44 

Imee’s take is worth noting because EDSA history tells us that on Day 4 Feb 25, around 6:30 p.m. when the US choppers were already on the way to the Palace to pick them up, it was clear that Marcos indeed had no wish to leave the country but Imee and Irene wanted to.

The President’s daughters were in tears pleading with their father to make the departure for the US. They reasoned that they could not possibly come out of the situation alive, and their children, the President’s grandchildren, were with them. The Last Hours by Fe Zamora. Mr. & Ms. Mar 21-27 1986

In fact, according the Lewis M. Simons, their husbands had started packing up very early that morning of their last day in the Palace. https://edsarevolution.com/

Marcos’s two sons-in-law were supervising the packing of dozens of crates of family possessions, including hundreds of thousands of dollars in gold bullion and bonds, more than a million dollars worth of freshly printed pesos, as well as artifacts and jewels. These were delivered by boat to a bayfront lawn adjacent to the US Embassy. Weeks earlier, a number of bulkier items, mainly large oil paintings and other works of art, had been packed and shipped out of the country at the direction of the First Lady.

There was little sleep in the palace that night as aides scurried from room to room, sifting through cabinets and boxes filled with documents, receipts, letters, many of them incriminating. Imelda Marcos was able to provide little advice to her husband. She seemed dazed, drifting in and out of her private chapel where she knelt and prayed. Marcos’s son Bongbong and General Ver were arguing desperately with him to stay and fight. 297-298

So really, I imagine that when the Palace escapees had to stopover in Clark for the night — wala daw kasing runway lights sa Laoag Airport — and the next morning found their American saviors under orders to fly them all out of the Philippines, I imagine that no one was happier than the daughters.

Makes you wonder if she’s now complaining about being “kidnapped”?

Enrile, Zaldy, 3-day rally

Nov 13. The centenarian Juan Ponce Enrile finally breathed his last, lingering a couple more days in ICU after it was announced that he had “slim chances of surviving”, which no one really doubted, given his age, whether 101 or 103. I wondered though why the family didn’t wait to announce until he was truly gone. Tuloy, the news generated all sorts of long-life and masamang-damo memes but also some serious vlogs and essays, mostly reminding of his notorious part in our nation’s history as architect and implementor of martial law and top Marcos crony (which he denied in his memoir), at marami pang iba. Pero okay din, I guess, to get all the sorry stuff said already… get it out of our systems… though it could take forever…

The ones who try to be fair invariably note his heroism in 1986 when he defected from Marcos and “sparked the EDSA revolution”, while others go on to ask why nothing changed, and why, how, he was never made to account for all the wrongdoing as well as the awesome wealth. Tanong pa ng isa, bakit sila-sila lang ang yumaman, bakit hindi binitbit ang taong-bayan?  https://www.youtube.com/

I only know enough about EDSA, and I concede that Enrile was an EDSA hero, but not because he defected from Marcos, rather, because he gave way to Cory. For sure, there was an ex-deal, maybe immunity from suit, atbp., who knows, but for some critical moments there, Enrile was touched by, and bowed to, People Power.

But it’s not true that if Enrile had not defected, Marcos would not have been ousted. February 22 was the 7th day of Cory’s nonviolent civil disobedience and crony boycott campaign to compel Marcos to resign. The economy was reeling and the banks were running. Cory was already in the Visayas, next stop, Mindanao, spreading the word, adding to her list of crony companies to boycott. The people were already in the throes of non-violent revolution. Marcos’s inauguration on the 25th would have brought the people out into the streets anyway, marching to Mendiola most likely, there to face the tanks and the Marines as bravely.

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Nov 14. The missing Zaldy Co, whose Sunwest Construction and its joint ventures were awarded P86.1 billion in govt infra contracts from 2016 to 2025, suddenly showed up on our digital screens, alleging that only PBBM and former Speaker Martin Romualdez benefitted from the P100 billion insertions in the 2025 national budget, and that he could be killed for saying so. Nov 15. Zaldy struck again with another video confirming the Guteza story, and showing bags and bags purportedly full of money…male-maleta ng pera…na idineliver daw sa Forbes Park at sa Malacañang.

Napaka-obvious naman na sinadyang ipalabas ang mga video, at magpalabas ang Zaldy, just before the 3-day DDS INC JIL KOJC UPI anti-corruption protest rallies sa Edsa at Luneta whose fervent desire is to oust the president and install the VP.

Which makes Zaldy Co what? A DDS hero? For defecting from the BBM-Romualdez admin? Pero dati nang DDS si Zaldy, nagbalik-loob laang, kumbaga. Siguro’y pinangakuan ng immunity from suit kung sakaling mapababa si PBBM? A la Enrile in 1986 kunó? At least Enrile had the grace, and the smarts, to seriously woo Coryistas, admitting that in the snap election they cheated Cory out of 300,000 votes in Cagayan, and that the 1972 ambush was staged.

Zaldy should just come home, face the music, testify under oath, let the chips fall where they may. History just might remember him more kindly.

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