Bilyonaryo News Channel | The Spokes | “What the US-Israel/Iran War Means for the World” March 3 2026 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_OK9WlnVtE
LACIERDA. How long has it been, the conflict between Israel and Iran?
PROF CARLOS. Since Israel was created in 1947, during the partition of Palestine. And they have always been arch enemies, at least that is how Israel continues to define Iran, a country of 3,000 years of civilization. And we have to link this with Israel’s, Netanyahu’s particularly, plan for a Greater Israel, which means dadapaan niya yung Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, to create a bigger Israel.
LACIERDA. Israel is one among many Arab nations. But Iran does not consider itself an Arab nation. They call themselves Persians. Everybody seems to be against Israel, but the animosity between Israel and Iran is quite different from the other Arab nations.
CARLOS. Maybe because there is the regional leadership factor. Netanyahu wants to be the top honcho there, and Iran, thinking itself superior to the Arab population … I have Iranian friends, and when somebody makes the mistake of identifying them as Arab, they immediately say, no no, we’re Persians — which means there’s already an innate, almost a built-in superiority among them.
LACIERDA. And the Persian empire was really stronger in the time of Darius…
CARLOS. And they will never forget that the Arabs were the ones who burned their libraries, they will never forget that, and of course that was a loss to our civilization, to humanity.
So you have different layers of conflicts, and you have, of course, the factor of the United States, a very young country, 250 years old, and Israel also a young country, as old as I am. And all these other things would be because Saudi and Iraq and so on are not growing pineapple and broccoli, they have oil, otherwise we would not even talk about it.
LACIERDA. So what led US President Donald trump to initiate authorize an air strike on Iran?
CARLOS. A number of things. If you want to think sinister about it, my hypothesis is you have to link it to the Epstein Files. When I content-analyzed Trump’s articulations with regard to this — he is a reluctant leader, he doesn’t want war, in fact he wants to be called the man of peace , the president of peace, but given all that, and his proclivity for braggadocio… looking at it from a political psychological perspective, his wanting to be the top honcho, waging war, but against a country which was negotiating in Geneva just a week before. And so what was it about, how is it that suddenly there is a crescendo in the activity and BAM! they now invaded Iran in a joint operation. So again, I don’t think you have to be sinister, Edwin, to think about its relationship to the Epstein files.
LACIERDA. So it’s pretty similar to the film Wag the Dog. The numbers of the president were down and so to find another way of bringing up the numbers of President Trump … let’s do this attack on Iran.
CARLOS. Like a diversion.
LACIERDA. There’s a CNN poll right now that says it’s an uphill climb for him because the number of US citizens approving of the invasion is around 39 percent only.
CARLOS. Just this morning, or late last night, he already signaled, through Italy, that he wanted a ceasefire. Because he thought that this would be a surgical attack but he now discovered that Iran this time is no longer as accommodating, especially if purportedly they have killed the leaders.
LACIERDA. The stated purpose of President Trump was regime change but just using air strikes, with no ground forces, how would you possibly effect regime change? Does he expect the people within to mount a revolution?
CARLOS. That’s the tragic, almost comedic part, in this absurdity. Again, if you content-analyze his articulations over weeks, he was echoing Netanyahu. And if you think that Netanyahu has the goods on him on Epstein, crochet all the narratives together, Edwin, and you don’t need an IQ of 140 to get the picture.
LACIERDA. i saw a tweet of a Democrat congresswoman who said Netanyahu has always been peddling the idea for the US to do a strike on Iran — it was offered to George W Bush, to Obama — and only Donald trump agreed to do it.
CARLOS. But, again, it’s as if the speechwriter of Trump is really Netanyahu. And Netanyahu has been… I’m sure you’ve heard of the AIPAC [American Israel Public Affairs Committee], the biggest lobby group — they’re really lining up the pockets of both Democrats and Republicans, so everybody is getting benefits. And Netanyahu has been saying over and over again na baka magiging nuclear-capable na ang Iran. Paulit unit niyang sinasabi yan.
LACIERDA. But the International Atomic Energy Commission [IAEA] has found no evidence. Iran has uranium enrichment but the level of uranium enrichment is only for civilian-related technology. I think it’s around 60 percent, not enough to create weapons-grade nuclear systems.
CARLOS. Yah, but Grossi, the head of IAEA, before June, was mouthing what Netanyahu was saying — they made it a casus belli for doing the 12-day June bombing of the subterranean nuclear facilities of Iran . … I really was flabbergasted that Grossi contradicted his previous announcements.
LACIERDA. The bombing of Iran, are there any positive effects to that? Do you think this will further degrade Hamas, Hezbollah… the proxy groups of iran?
CARLOS. On the other hand, I think the assumptive frameworks of Trump and Netanyahu are off the mark. They used up so much war materiel last June … you cannot rebuild that right away because some of them will take years. And then of course some of the materials needed, nasa China, rare earth… So put all these together plus Iran now is no longer accommodating. You say, we will use the Samson option: tutal we’re going down, we will bring you down, too.
LACIERDA. The Jews have already achieved hegemony without even going to war, through the Abraham Accords with some of the Arab states. So why go to war if the US wants hegemony?
CARLOS. You know, if you’re losing that power… and we know that the US on all measures is really going down — we don’t have to talk financial, the unemployment etc — they’re gasping for air. You need to have something happening to you, some bravura action, and this is one of them.
And I think both Trump and Netanyahu will be genuinely disappointed because Iran will drag this. If they think this will be surgical, they’ve got another think coming. I think Iran will drag this to a war of attrition. And, as one of my students declared, time is on the side of Iran.
LACIERDA. They’re not as weak as Iraq.
CARLOS. Not. Very different dynamics there. And if Trump thinks that he can cajole the Iranian public — oh, you know, your leader is dead, therefore move towards democracy — let us remember they were the ones who destroyed democracy in 1953 when Mosaddegh nationalized the oil industry.
The reason why I get irritated, Edwin, when people just shoot off their mouths and don’t know history — hindi ko naman sila minamaliit pero minamaliit ko sila dahil hindi nga sila nagbabasa ng kasaysayan. Please, magbasa ng kasaysayan bago makipagtunggali sa akin. Otherwise, zipper your mouth dahil nakakayamot na kayo.
LACIERDA. A New York columnist said Iran committed a grave mistake when they bombed the UAE and all the other territories where US bases are concerned, because they themselves were against Israel or the US attacking Iran. And because Iran attacked, they failed to drive a wedge between the US and the Arab states that are allies of the US.
CARLOS. That’s not true. Iran knows whereof it speaks and why it was attacking them. Because it is true also, as we know, that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has one of the biggest bases, Bahrain, Qatar, and that means that all the attacks of Iran will be to-whom-it-may-concern, particularly the US military bases, and they made that very clear.
And the statement of one from their collegial body, sabi kanina, this may even go beyond the region, territorially. That telegraphs to Trump na mag-cuidao ka, people are saying na baka magkaroon ka ng another 9/11. Sana hindi mangyari, ‘no.
LACIERDA. The more sinister way that Iran can cause global disorder is through terrorism. They have terrorist sleeper cells, Hamas and Hezbollah can be reactivated and cause turmoil in the US or Europe.
CARLOS. I think that would be like number 76 on their strategy. Sa ngayon, Iran is going for broke — naguusap lang tayo sa Geneva nung sang araw, tapos ito ang ginawa mo. And I suspect that Trump was cajoled to move. I don’t know what is the reason, the motivation about why they are compelled to go along with Netanyahu’s plan. And I guess the only plausible explanation, call it a hypothesis because I don’t know any support for the same, would be the Epstein files.
LACIERDA. It appears to be so, ’no, and so far it’s not achieving the purpose, that is, to bring up his numbers. But President Trump already mentioned that this is going to be a four-week campaign. Do you see this statement as signaling limited objectives or expected escalation? The possibility of a global war?
CARLOS. Two things. Will it move towards a global conflagration? I hope not. Less likely. I hope it encapsulates. Just keep it within the territory of the conflict areas. Second, many times when countries make plans there are strategic frameworks, but these are cases where there are many moving parts, many known unknowns, and many unknown unknowns in Iran because its a hermit country.
LACIERDA. But the population is really unhappy with their government, is that correct?
CARLOS. Yah, no doubt about that. But again, all around… I want the Venezuelans to decide what they want, we want the Iranians to decide what they want, whatever that may be. And no external entity should dictate that.
So right now there’s a propaganda war. I’m a fairly intelligent person, Edwin, but minsan nakaka-ano din ako ng fake news and can’t decide, ‘no, not being an IT person. I read it and work back, work forward … meron ba itong suporta all around? Like yung sinasabi ko kanina, that a member daw of their collegial body said this might go beyond the territory of West Asia, of the Middle East, I hope not!
People also are asking me, in an interview this morning, whether this is going to reach to where we are, and involve the missiles that are located in our EDCA bases, and I said, less likely. The only reason that would happen would be if Taiwan becomes an issue , which is less likely right now because the US cannot fight on two fronts.
LACIERDA. So far we have not heard anything from China… Russia… if im not mistaken.
CARLOS. Both have spoken but … words.
LACIERDA. But these two are allied nations of Iran.
CARLOS. They call themselves strategic allies. I don’t know the operational definition of strategic allies but I think both are cautious because if they enter this you will really have World War Three. These two actors are major actors.
LACIERDA. And it’s being mentioned that Iran will try to block the Strait of Hormuz to stop the passage in that area. However that would also affect their allies, such as China, which is heavily dependent on oil.
CARLOS. I’m sure they will calibrate. They will add the pluses and the minuses. And I’ve read — I don’t know if it’s fake news — that they’ve also mined that very narrow area. It will also hurt them. Because oil revenue is what keeps the war machinery going.
The people themselves, whether they like Khameini or not, his death, as reported, really hit them, you know. Here you have a country who continued to negotiate but the demands of Netanyahu, and of course Trump along with him, are really demands which any respectable sovereign country would not agree with. Imagine, to give up your ballistic missile system. Eh yun ang depensa mo eh. Parang, sige, pumasok ka na sa bahay ko, bahala ka na diyan kung anong gusto mo diyan. That’s exactly what Trump and Netanyahu want. And no self-respecting country would agree to those terms. So they were not negotiating. They were really demanding.
So why go through the rigmarole of Geneva, Oman, and wherever? That’s because Trump was also biding for time. Ang tingin ko sa kanya dito is the reluctant partner. … I want to use the word “reluctant”. As I said, Edwin, kino-content analyze ko ang mga sinasabi niya, and because he’s not reading from a speech, off the cuff … mas malapit yon sa damdamin niya, sa iniisip niya.
LACIERDA. Siya lang ang pangulong nag-invade sa Venezuela, sa Iran. Other presidents had the same problem with Venezuela and Iran, and yet they chose not to invade.
CARLOS. But Trump kasi is a different personality altogether. And to be fair, he’s also fairly intelligent, hindi naman siya magiging milyonaryo bilyonaryo kung tatanga-tanga siya. Nagca-calculate din yan.
But remember meron pang isang factor. November elections. November elections can change the face of Congress, both lower and upper chambers. And that is what Trump is afraid of. Because now may social media. Dati rati, tinatakpan nila yung bodybags na dumarating, mga namamatay na soldiers, sinasabi sa family, bigyan namin kayo ng salapi, wag na lang kayo magsalita. This time the dynamics are different.
LACIERDA. So if you were an Iranian, if you were a Persian, how would you feel that Khameini has been killed. Apparently he was an obstructionist in all the democratic reforms offered by the more enlightened ayatollahs.
CARLOS. As always the public is not a monolith, Edwin. That means they can go from left to right. Those for Khameini from the beginning will always be for him whatever he does. Those who are against him will always be against him. The factor that would not be known to us is: to what extent would his death and his family galvanize those who are against him and those who are in the middle, the swing, to move towards defending the country. Because it now goes beyond Khameini and the family and the top leadership who were killed. … It’s really the swing vote, the one in between the left and the right that will matter right now.
LACIERDA. How soon do you think will the situation in Iran stabilize?
CARLOS. Not soon. If we believe what Iran is saying and they’re fairly consistent, they will drag this. They will drag this and the US and even Netanyahu will really have serious genuine logistics and rearming issues. And I really have my heart for the American soldiers. It’s rather personal to me because my granddaughter was married recently and her husband has a younger brother who is a US marine, bagong bago, and naka receive na sila ng memo to be ready to be deployed. Eh 24 lang yung bata . So young. Tapos gagawing bala ng kanyon, in a manner of speaking.
LACIERDA. Ground forces will be deployed to Iran?
CARLOS. It’s part of the plan but, again, I think it will be number 76 in their reckoning. Because you know what happens when you put Americans on the ground. Parang jungle warfare yan. And you know the topography of Iran, di ba. Alam nila yung kanilang teritoryo. Di alam yan ng invading force, whatever composite. And always our hearts will be for the innocents, for the soldiers, on all sides, whose lives will be lost because of the hubris of two malevolent leaders.
LACIERDA. When you were security adviser, did you anticipate any turmoil in the Middle East or were you just focused on the China concern.
CARLOS. The Middle East has always been a powder keg. It has never been stable for a long long time. That was why, when I had a 3-week lecture series in Turkey, natuwa ako because that was the time Erdogan wanted a common market. Gusto niyang kopyahin yung E.U. model, and I really liked that because I was there to talk about the ASEAN and the move towards regional integration.
LACIERDA. Anong gusto ng Turkey na common market, its already part of EU.
CARLOS. Hindi pa siya part of EU. Part siya ng NATO. … Ang gusto niya — different levels kasi bago maging common market — free trade muna, tapos common market, hanggang mag- reach ka doon sa level ng European Union ngayon, na meron nang common economic policy and so on. Ang ganda ng plano niya because gusto niya to stitch them all together, these warring groups in the middle East, pati Israel. Ang ganda nung plano.
But in response to your question. When I was NSA, this did not loom large … at the time China was the pivot of our national security concerns. But the dynamics changed, of course, radically, after I left because the president moved towards the arms of the Americans.
LACIERDA. Do you believe that the Philippines should close all the EDCA sites so that we would not be a target of Iran?
CARLOS. Siguro it will not happen now. It’s less likely because we are so deeply embedded in the American embrace plus I don’t know if they’ve already established Subic as an ammunition depot, and I think that is a very very major error in judgment.
… All of this will have an impact on us. I don’t know what percentage of our oil is coming from this area, I would imagine a large percentage. I remember in the seventies, the oil embargo, my husband would get up at 3 or 4 a.m. to line up sa Philcoa. Yung queue hanggang sa Regladao sa Fairview. Tapos ang makukuha lang namin 10 liters.
Pero that said, siguro kung gusto mo yung upside nito, people will walk, they’ll be healthier, people will cycle, they’ll be healthier, and maybe, like during the Japanese occupation we will plant.
Ma-affect ang ating food sources, syempre ang transport costs mo tataas bigla. Tatamaan tayo. Pero sabi nga ng nanay ko, during the Japanese occupation they were really forced to plant mga kangkong, mga kamote, yung short-term, pechay, ganyan. And we survived. Kasi tayo, we are a hardy people we will plant, do whatever needs to be done. ***