Category: money

The almighty US dollar

While waiting on the Senate to proceed forthwith with the impeachment trial, here’s a must-read post by econ prof Roncesvalles of Siliman U. on how the US dollar got so mighty (gold standard and not) and whether we should stay with the dollar bloc, given current realities.

Letter from Dumaguete
June 8 2025

CURRENCY BLUES
Orlando Roncesvalles

All the jazz about dollar hegemony

Behind the easy sidewalk question — Why is the US dollar everywhere in the world economy? — are serious ‘pocketbook’ issues. Why do we have inflation? Can we avoid financial panics and crises? Are cryptocurrencies as good as gold? What will happen to the peso exchange rate?

In his latest book (Our Dollar, Your Problem, 2025), Kenneth Rogoff provides some answers by surveying the broad landscape of economic events since 1945, when the last world war ended. The book is essential reading because the author was also the chief economist at the International Monetary Fund in 2001-03. He keeps the reader grounded in historical facts. He sheds light on issues of interpretation and controversy that the economics profession has confronted.

Among these issues are how the US dollar came to be the dominant global currency, how the monetary arrangements agreed by the Allied countries in 1944 that provided for the fixed exchange rate system became obsolete, and, importantly, for an aspiring middle-income country like the Philippines, what policy advice should be heeded by the country’s economic managers.

In this connection, Rogoff talks about the Tokyo Consensus as an improvement on the Washington version (more on this below).

Finally, Rogoff discusses the present-day debt and inflation problems in rich and poor countries that portend financial crises in the coming decade.

Rogoff views the dominant role of the US dollar as something that has not been threatened by alternatives like the Soviet ruble, the Japanese yen, the euro, the Chinese renminbi, or cryptocurrencies. The explanations are somewhat unique in each case.

However, the most crucial factor is the size and depth of the exchange and financial markets where the dollar is involved.

Apparently, for whatever reason, people residing outside the US who have their own national currency prefer to treat the US dollar as the vehicle currency for their international transactions.

READ ON: the Soviet ruble, International monetary arrangements,  the Japanese yen, the euro, the Chinese renminbi, cryptocurrencies

NO to BBM’s Maharlika Wealth Fund!

“Honorable Senators of the Republic” by Diwa C. Guinigundo https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2023/02/16/505267/honorable-senators-of-the-republic/

“Investing a mountain of debt?” by  Diwa C. Guinigundo https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2023/01/12/498061/investing-a-mountain-of-debt/

“In the bag, ho ho ho!” by Manuel L. Quezon III
https://opinion.inquirer.net/159692/in-the-bag-ho-ho-ho

“More critical than Maharlika” by Cielito F. Habito
https://opinion.inquirer.net/159649/more-critical-than-maharlika

“Maharlika is the new government” by Ma. Lourdes Tiquia https://www.manilatimes.net/2022/12/20/opinion/columns/maharlika-is-the-new-government/1870966

“Will Marcos Jr. take up Maharlika Fund at Davos?” by Satur C. Ocampo  https://www.philstar.com/opinion/2022/12/17/2231329/will-marcos-jr-take-maharlika-fund-davos

“Maharlika muddle” by Stephen CuUnjieng https://www.manilatimes.net/2022/12/16/opinion/columns/maharlika-muddle/1870530

“Maharlika foolish, corrupt – critics” by Jarius Bondoc
https://www.philstar.com/opinion/2022/12/14/2230635/maharlika-foolish-corrupt-critics

“ENRILE URGES MARCOS: Review Maharlika bill” https://www.manilatimes.net/2022/12/14/news/review-maharlika-bill/1870127

“Upping the ante by doubling down” by Manuel L. Quezon III
https://opinion.inquirer.net/159500/upping-the-ante-by-doubling-down

“Why the Sovereign Wealth Fund is still problematic on many levels” by Andrew J. Masigan
https://www.philstar.com/opinion/2022/12/14/2230636/why-sovereign-wealth-fund-still-problematic-many-levels

“Decorative” by Alex Magno
https://www.philstar.com/opinion/2022/12/13/2230386/decorative

“Maharlika Wealth Fund: Devil is in the details” by Teresa S. Abesamis
https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2022/12/13/492801/maharlika-wealth-fund-devil-is-in-the-details/

“Imploding” by Alex Magno https://www.philstar.com/opinion/2022/12/10/2229774/imploding

“Who Wants the Maharlika Wealth Fund?” by Solita Monsod https://marengwinniemonsod.ph/2022/12/10/maharlika-wealth-fund/

Maharlika Investment Fund ‘beyond repair,’ says Economist & National Scientist  Raul Fabella https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1703562/mif-beyond-repair-says-natl-scientist-in-economics

Economist Winnie Monsod reacts to Maharlika Fund proposal [“Ridiculous!”] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=919ww8jbzBk

“Fumble” by Boo Chanco https://www.philstar.com/business/2022/12/09/2229496/fumble

“Maharlika conundrum” by Stephen CuUnjieng https://www.manilatimes.net/2022/12/09/opinion/columns/maharlika-conundrum/1869617

“Death blow for a dumb idea” by Ben Kritz https://www.manilatimes.net/2022/12/08/opinion/columns/death-blow-for-a-dumb-idea/1869481

“Blink thrice if you don’t mean it” by Manuel L. Quezon III https://opinion.inquirer.net/159368/blink-thrice-if-you-dont-mean-it

“Defeat” by Alex Magno https://www.philstar.com/opinion/2022/12/06/2228787/defeat

“Drop the Maharlika fund” by Cielito F. Habito https://opinion.inquirer.net/159331/drop-the-maharlika-fund

“Maharlika Fund idea is incredibly obtuse like, ‘what are we in power for?'” by Yen Makabenta  https://www.manilatimes.net/2022/12/06/opinion/columns/maharlika-fund-idea-is-incredibly-obtuse-like-what-are-we-in-power-for/1869196

“Business groups, economists issue joint statement on ‘Maharlika’” by Ma. Stella F. Arnaldo https://businessmirror.com.ph/2022/12/06/business-groups-economists-issue-joint-statement-on-maharlika/

“Are we ready for a sovereign wealth fund?” by Randy David https://opinion.inquirer.net/159282/are-we-ready-for-a-sovereign-wealth-fund

“Cronies wealth fund?” by Boo Chanco  https://www.philstar.com/business/2022/12/05/2228516/cronies-wealth-fund

“The Maharlika Fund: A Pricey Stud Or A Milking Cow?” by Heneral Lunacy https://heneralunacy.wordpress.com/2022/12/05/the-maharlika-fund-a-pricey-stud-or-a-milking-cow/

“Keep your hands off our SSS, GSIS money” by Jarius Bondoc https://www.philstar.com/opinion/2022/12/02/2227919/keep-your-hands-our-sss-gsis-money

“Maharlika Fund: Dubious, pretentious and self-serving” by Sonny Africa https://www.ibon.org/maharlika-fund-dubious-pretentious-self-serving/

“The Maharlika Wealth Fund” by Filomeno S. Sta. Ana https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2022/12/04/490838/the-maharlika-wealth-fund/

“13 reasons why WE OPPOSE House Bill 6398 (Maharlika Investment Fund/PH Sovereign Wealth Fund)” by David Michael San Juan https://www.facebook.com/lastrepublic/posts/pfbid0scC3HnBcZyvpdS1fr7ZP1j1ZH2jyUW1vcYgnBAk6mmUoWnmLC1Pxp4iUcdBfUengl

“Galawang Marcos. Another Corruption Scheme in the Making!” by Ed Lingao https://www.facebook.com/100083035164368/videos/679806213550044/

“More fun(d) in the Phl” by Ana Marie Pamintuan https://www.philstar.com/opinion/2022/12/05/2228532/more-fund-phl

Shooting Stars and the Falling Peso

O. Roncesvalles

I remember a time in 2012 when many big-bank economists predicted that the Philippine peso would remain a shooting star at around P42/$ by year-end. The peso then was a ‘darling’ currency, having nicely recovered from a low of about P49/$ in the wake of the Financial Crisis of 2008. Little did the bank economists know that there would soon be a literal u-turn; the peso shortly began its doldrums to where it is today at P53/$. It hasn’t been a pretty sight for the responsible authorities at the central bank.

Read on…

100 years of ferdinand marcos

BATAC CITY—Opening a forum here on the legacies of Marcos, whose 100th birthday on Sept. 11 had been declared by Malacañang as public holiday in Ilocos Norte province, Imee referred to her late father’s comment when they landed at the Hickam Air Force Base in Honolulu after their ouster following the 1986 Edsa People Power Revolution.

“We were all in tears and everyone said, ‘The end is nigh, it is finished, we are dead and doomed,’” Imee narrated.

“My father said, ‘No, children. To my family and to everyone, history is not done with me yet.”

… Imee said some people had described the Marcos 100 Forum as “very disappointing because it is very simple.” But the family organized a “humble celebration for an extremely austere and simple almost monkish man like my father,” she said.

She said: “There will be no parade, like what my mother [former first lady and now Ilocos Norte Rep. Imelda Marcos] wants. No concert, like what [former Sen. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.] wants, and there will be no shows and dancing, like what I want.”

Instead, the family and the Ilocos Norte government organized debates, storytelling sessions, and a lecture series “that will define Marcos 100 in this very reflective effort, the Marcos legacy,” she said.

hard naman to fault the wife and children, family and friends, for celebrating the centennial of ferdinand marcos in as big a way as possible.  ferdinand marcos, after all, was, truly, unlike any other president we have had. 

The forum, hosted at the Mariano Marcos State University (MMSU) Teatro Ilocandia from September 8-9, is an effort of the Marcos family to make this year’s commemoration of their patriarch’s birthday mirror his character: “very cerebral, reflective, and mindful.”

It contrasts previous celebrations of FEM’s birthday every September 11, which had involved parades, flash mobs, concerts, and other festivities. Governor Marcos explained, “Gawin natin ang gusto ng tanging ama ko: simple, diretsuhin, payak, intelektwal, at palaisipan.”

The North remembers,” she said, “Ferdinand E. Marcos is, after all, every Ilocano. The story of every Filipino is embedded in that biography of being born of an arid and harsh landscape, struggling through life and every adversity, and finally coming out triumphant.”

Gracing the forum as lecturers are De La Salle University (DLSU) Professor Antonio P. Contreras; Former Cultural Center of the Philippines (CCP) President Dr. Raul M. Sunico; UP Prof. Clarita R. Carlos; lawyer Estelito P. Mendoza, solicitor-general during the FEM presidency; Marcos’ former Budget and Education Secretary Dr. Jaime C. Laya; and the former president’s namesake, Former Senator Ferdinand “Bong Bong” R. Marcos Jr.

Discussions revolve around Marcos’ sense and narrative of nationalism; the “Golden Era” of arts and culture during his administration; his foreign policy; FEM’s martial law; the Philippine economy during that time; and the barangay in institution-building.

“Why is it that this debate, this argument about who President Marcos is, continues to burn, unabated, a hundred years after his birth? What is his legacy? What do we bear today that bears his mark and will have changed the Filipino people forever and made the Ilocanos what they are today?”

the non-ilocanos remember, too.  i look forward to transcripts or videos posted online.  it could be enlightening to read / hear what some of our public intellectuals are saying about the marcos dictatorship these days, 28 years after his death, 31 years after his ouster.  palaisipan naman talaga.

Ang problema kasi noon, ang dami-daming trabaho ng papa ko na lahat umaasa sa kanya. Sa bandang huli, noong nagkasakit, nagkaloko-loko na kasi. Either talagang nakikinabang, o nag-abuso, o hindi alam ang ginagawa yung mga nasa baba. Kasi everybody, for years and years, siya ang inaasahan (The problem then was that my father was loaded with work that everyone relied on him. Towards the end, when he was sick, things got crazy. People below him either gained, abused or didn’t know what they were doing because everyone relied on him for so long),” the governor pointed out.

it can’t be easy spinning marcos history, especially now that they’ve offered to return some of the wealth that imelda had always claimed to be rightfully all theirs. i wonder now if duterte wasn’t supposed to announce it until after the centennial fiesta, but he couldn’t wait, needed to distract us from all the killings?

marcos was right, history is not done with him yet.  or with imelda and kids.  heto nga’t magsosoli daw ng yaman na hindi daw nila sadyang natangay.  kaloka.

by the way, it is not the first time such an offer has been made.  back in ’89, said vp doy laurel, marcos’s dying wish was to come home and be buried beside his mother, and he was prepared to donate 90% of his wealth to the philippine government and the filipino people via some foundation, except that imelda was willing to donate only 75 to 80%, and anyway cory didn’t even want to hear of it.

so this is a take two.  90% sounds good to me, actually.  that is, 90% of ALL the wealth, found AND unfound.  time to come clean.  may the spirit of the “monkish” father so inspire.

and then maybe let’s put it all in a trust fund of sorts, waiting for a visionary kind of president who truly cares, and actually knows what to do, to make the economy, and the politics, work not just for the few rich but for the many, many, many more who are poor.