Category: china

China’s repolyo strategy @Ayungin Shoal

Ano nga ba ang nakikinitang endgame ng China sa pagharang nito sa ating mga bangkang maydalang pagkain, tubig, atbp. para sa 8-man contingent ng BRP Sierra Madre, military outpost natin sa Ayungin shoal, na teritoryo natin, hindi ng China.

Noong 2013, a year after the Scarborough scandal, ito ang sabi ng isang Maj. Gen. Zhang Zhaozhong ng China’s People Liberation Army kay Jeff Himmelman ng New York Times Magazine.

He described a “cabbage strategy,” which entails surrounding a contested area with so many boats — fishermen, fishing administration ships, marine surveillance ships, navy warships — that “the island is thus wrapped layer by layer like a cabbage.”

… Of taking territory from the Philippines, he said: “We should do more such things in the future. For those small islands, only a few troopers are able to station on each of them, but there is no food or even drinking water there. If we carry out the cabbage strategy, you will not be able to send food and drinking water onto the islands. Without the supply for one or two weeks, the troopers stationed there will leave the islands on their own. Once they have left, they will never be able to come back.”

Dagdag pa ni Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, director of Asia-Pacific programs at the U.S. Institute of Peace:

Nothing in China happens overnight. Any move you see was planned and prepared for years, if not more. So obviously this maritime issue is very important to China.” https://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/10/27/south-china-sea/index.html

Fast forward to 2023. According to the AFP’s early July air patrols, there was a swarm of more than 50 Chinese “fishing” vessels in the vicinity of Sabina Shoal, not far from Ayungin. Na nadagdagan pa noong August 5, nang i-water-cannon ang ating Coast Guard.

In the Aug. 5 incident, there were additionally some 12 Chinese militia vessels aside from the six Chinese Coast Guard  ships in the area, according to AFP Western Command chief Vice Admiral Alberto Carlos. “These fishing vessels are really militia… they seem to be working (and) taking orders from the Chinese Coast Guard.” https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2023/08/11/2287783/afp-eyes-maritime-militia-wps 

Five days after the water-cannon affront, the West Philippine Sea was still aswarm with mostly Chinese vessels.

CARLOS. … as far as the entire WPS, based on our last monitoring, close to 500 or more than 400. But that is just an estimate because there might be duplication of sightings,” he said.

Last monitoring was just yesterday on August 10, in Mischief Reef alone, there were 191. Around 85 percent are Chinese vessels,” he added.

Ito na mismo ang repolyo strategy at work: pinapalibutan, binabakuran, ng China ang Ayungin ng sapinsaping mga bangka at barko  ng mga mangingisda kuno, pero marine surveillance ships at navy warships sa totoo.  Layers of boats and ships pretending to be loaded with  fishermen, na papalapit nang palalapit sa BRP Sierra Madre. Ang goal ay malinaw: ma-takeover ang Ayungin nang walang putukan, as in, takutan lang, with water cannons and laser threats and the like. Gray zone tactics that the U.S deems below the threshold of military warfare.

‘Ika ni Ray Powell, director of SeaLight at the Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation at Stanford University:

… China operate[s] in the “gray zone” by carrying out actions just below what might be considered acts of war but that achieve the same result — Beijing gaining territory or control without firing a shot.

… The Sierra Madre is visibly rusting away, it is becoming structurally unsound. At some point it will begin to breakup and otherwise become uninhabitable.  At which point china’s strategy works because all they have to do then is sort of ‘rescue’ the poor Philippine sailors off the shoal because they’re the only people around.

And then they will control the shoal.

Unless something changes, that is what will happen. It’s just a matter of when it will happen.

WHAT NOW

Matagal nang pahirapan ang pagpaparating ng supplies at repair materials sa BRP Sierra Madre. Ang tanong ngayon: Is China revving up for a full-court press kumbaga, as in, wala nang supplies na palulusutin?

Ayon kay Manny Mogato ng PressOne:

China has been waiting for the ship [BRP Sierra Madre] to collapse but the Philippines has been trying to save it by reinforcing it with cement and steel.

On Aug. 5 … The Chinese Coast Guard accused the Philippines of bringing in construction materials to BRP Sierra Madre, blocking the boats and using a water cannon to prevent the vessels from getting near BRP Sierra Madre.

One of the wooden boats made it though. The shallow waters around BRP Sierra Madre prevented the large Chinese vessels from following it. The other boat left after evading too much pressure from the water cannon.

Sa palagay naman ni Alex Magno ng PhilStar:

This [Aug 5] incident is not an accidental one.

This will be the standard Chinese tactic from hereon. They will try to disrupt every resupply mission, hoping that we eventually throw up our arms and decide it is too costly to maintain that small detachment on Ayungin.

China has initiated a severe test of wills. They will continue to cram the waters they claim with Coast Guard and “militia” vessels. All these prowling vessels will try to intercept every Filipino vessel that moves into what they claim is their territory.

At heto ang reaction ni Ex-Foreign Affairs Sec., now PH Ambassador to the UK, Teddy Locsin sa August 10 pahayag ni AFP Chief of Staff Romeo Brawner Jr. na balak ng gobiyernong mag-deploy ng naval reservists sa West Ph Sea.

TEDDY LOCSIN. We’re gonna need gunboats—more of ours out there, the higher risk of misencounter triggering the Mutual Defense Treaty—and ending its vacuities. Brawner is right; we gotta be all over the arena so our only military ally knows it isn’t a shadow play. A war for real is coming. 

Yes. A war for real. Without shades of gray. Because Ayungin is ours, #AtinAngAyungin, no ifs or buts.

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A Game of Shark and Minnow

‘Little blue men’: Is a militia Beijing says doesn’t exist causing trouble in the South China Sea?

AFP eyes maritime militia in WPS 

Philippines should take action vs. China’s ‘gray zone’ tactics —experts 

Water cannon incident confirms Chinese fishing vessels are militia – WESCOM 

‘Creeping invasion’ — Walk the talk, Gibo tells China 

Scarborough Shoal and the Spratlys in ancient maps

Between America and China…

Scarborough Shoal and the Spratlys in ancient maps

A timely reminder given the now very convoluted discourse about China because of our renewed, refreshed, “special relationship” with the US.

The frame of reference for the 1900 Treaty of Washington’s definition of the Philippine territory was the Murillo Velarde map, which included the Spratlys and the Scarborough Shoal, But still, China’s position is that Philippine territory is limited to the islands enclosed by the polygonal lines drawn in the 1898 Treaty of Paris. Justice Carpio said that China did not participate in the Arbitral proceedings, but “by officially submitting its Position Paper to the Arbitral Tribunal, China expressly and formally recognized that Philippine territory is defined by three treaties, including the 1900 Treaty of Washington… China is forever estopped from claiming that Philippine territory is limited to the islands enclosed by the Treaty of Paris.” 

By AMELIA H.C. YLAGAN  

. . . . Justice Carpio, who was the guest of honor and main speaker at the Alliance Française, said “the 1734 Murillo Velarde map is a living document because it determines Philippine territory today, that is, Philippine territory cannot be determined without this map.” This oldest Philippine map of “Las Yslas Filipinas” is the official Spanish Government map showing Philippine territory during the Spanish regime. It shows Panacot (Scarborough Shoal) and Los Bajos de Paragua (the Spratlys) as part of Philippine territory, Justice Carpio said. None of these islands drawn in this Murillo Velarde map appeared in China’s maps from centuries ago.

“The map debunks once and for all, the Chinese historical narrative that China has owned the South China Sea for 200 years. Now the world knows better. Thanks to the definitive ruling of the Arbitral Tribunal, China’s historical narrative has been exposed as fake news. The map proves, beyond any shadow of doubt, that Spratlys and Scarborough Shoal were part of the Philippine territory as early as 1734,” Justice Carpio had said at a lecture at the Ateneo de Manila University in 2017.

At the Alliance Française opening, Justice Carpio explained that the aggressiveness of China in claiming the Spratlys and Scarborough Shoal started with the 1898 Treaty of Paris, after the Spanish-American war, when Spain ceded to the United States the archipelago known as the Philippine Islands in exchange for $20 million to ratify the Treaty. Spain might have missed the Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal, putting these outside the western side of the polygonal lines of the Philippines in the Treaty of Paris.

But the United States noticed the exclusion, and demanded a revision of the map for the revised treaty, called the 1900 Treaty of Washington, which provided that “Spain relinquishes to the United all title and all claim of title, which she may have had at the time of the conclusion of the Treaty of Peace of Paris, to any and all islands belonging to the Philippine Archipelago, lying outside the lines described in Article III of that Treaty and particularly to the islands of Cagayan (Mapun), Sulu and Sibutu and their dependencies, and agrees that all such islands shall be comprehended in the cession of the Archipelago as fully as if they had been expressly included within those lines.”

The frame of reference for the 1900 Treaty of Washington’s definition of the Philippine territory was the Murillo Velarde map, which included the Spratlys and the Scarborough Shoal, But still, China’s position is that Philippine territory is limited to the islands enclosed by the polygonal lines drawn in the 1898 Treaty of Paris. Justice Carpio said that China did not participate in the Arbitral proceedings, but “by officially submitting its Position Paper to the Arbitral Tribunal, China expressly and formally recognized that Philippine territory is defined by three treaties, including the 1900 Treaty of Washington… China is forever estopped from claiming that Philippine territory is limited to the islands enclosed by the Treaty of Paris.”

It was only in 1947 that China started to claim the Spratlys, Justice Carpio said. Scarborough Shoal appears in a 1948 Chinese map, named Si-ka-ba-luo, a Chinese transliteration of the English name Scarborough, The shoal was named by Captain Philip D’Auvergne, whose East India Company ship East Indiaman Scarborough grounded on one of the rocks on Sept. 12, 1784, before sailing on to China although it already had a Spanish name recorded in the 1734 Murillo Velarde map of Spanish Philippines (W. Gilbert [1804] A New Nautical Directory for the East-India and China Navigation .., pp.480-482).

The Carta Hydrographica y Chorographica de las Islas Filipinas, the Murillo Velarde 1734 map is indeed the “Mother of all Philippine Maps,” a “Living Document” to history, as Justice Carpio says.

Filipinos thank Justice Antonio Carpio for his unrelenting fight for Philippine territory and maritime sovereignty in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea).

We thank Former Secretary of Foreign Affairs and Ambassador Albert del Rosario, who had fought together with Justice Carpio for Philippine rights on the seas. Ambassador del Rosario, 83, passed away on April 18. May he rest in peace.

Between America and China…

I was anti-bases in the hey(Joe)days of Subic and Clark; there were no threats then to our waters and borders atbp.  Some 20 years later China has grown into a bully of a hegemon hereabouts, with a foreign policy of aggression and expansion, encroaching on and creating artificial islands in our waters, driving our fisherman away, refusing to abide by fair and civilized rules.

So I’m just glad that America is finally coming to the rescue, even if only incidentally, their larger concern being to keep democratic ally Taiwan from falling into the clutches of communist China.  I dare say, better the devil we know than the devil we don’t. At least we speak the same language as America, we know exactly (okay, more or less) what they’re up to, whether or not they do right by us. We cannot say the same of China, given the authoritarianism and censorship, the language barrier and (what Andrew Masigan) labels the “two-faced diplomacy.”

If China goes ahead as promised, despite America’s “deterrent” strategy, and war breaks out over Taiwan, yes, we would likely be in China’s crosshairs, but, hey, aren’t we there already anyway?

Readings

Out of our comfort zone and into the ‘gray zone’ by Moira G. Gallaga

The Aquino-Marcos one-two punch by Segundo Eclar Romero

Oaf by Alex Magno

Protecting PH sovereignty and territory by MG Gallaga

Expanded Edca: Benefit or liability?  by MG Gallaga

China’s two-faced diplomacy by Andrew J. Masigan

Playing with the big boys by MG Gallaga

CHITO STA. ROMANA (1948-2022)

I never met him personally  but I had known of the Sta. Romana twins, Chito and Nelin, since high school days in St. Scho Manila (HS’66).  I’d see the two, tall and lean in their La Salle uniforms, usually standing by the gate just inside the pergola (where we all waited for our sundô), meeting up (I assumed) with their Kulasa sisters Neni and Chona for the trip home.

In U.P. Diliman when student ferment rose to a pitch in the late ’60s, I would hear Chito’s name mentioned in the same breath as that of Ed Jopson — student leaders from conservative exclusive schools La Salle and Ateneo, who started out as “moderates” compared to the U.P. radicals of Kabataang Makabayan led by Joma Sison, and who were all part of the First Quarter Storm when students protested the guns goons and gold that won Marcos re-election in ’69, and warned about Marcos’s plans for a prohibited third term via a constitutional convention.

But first, Martial Law. In ’76 when Eman Lacaba, poet-turned-armedrebel was reported killed by government forces, and again in ’82 when it was the turn of EdJop (who had turned radical in ‘72), I wondered about Chito. When I heard through the grapevine that he was in China, stranded into exile, I was just glad he was safe. I wondered, too, about Nelin, but there was no one to ask.

I read of Chito’s happy homecoming in 1986, of course. But it was only in 2011, when friend Sylvia Mayuga posted on Facebook an article about her cousin Chito retiring from ABC News | Beijing, that I finally got to ask about Nelin the twin, and Sylvia assured me he was fine, too. It was good to know that both had survived the Marcos years.

In November 2011, I got email from Nelin. He heard daw from Chito that I had asked Sylvia about him on Facebook and we agreed to meet, as it happened, on the 25th of Feb 2012 at Via Mare | EDSA Shang where he treated me and Katrina to lunch. It was like catching up with an old friend (in a past life, for sure).

Then in August 2015  I needed advice. Was it a good time for Katrina to go on a junket to China, not exactly the Philippines’ best friend in PNoy’s time, what with China’s belligerent ways in the West Philippine Sea, reclaiming rocks, harvesting Philippine marine life, driving Filipino fishermen away. We reached out to Chito via Nelin and Facebook.

ME.  I hope you don’t mind but you’re the only China specialist we “know.”  Manila Times, for which Katrina writes a column, wants to send her to China end of the month. Given the latest medyo nakaka-praning statements from Chinese officials, I’m thinking it might not be a good time? It might compromise her, in some way? Attached are two pages of the invite.  [12 Aug 2015]

CHITO.  Hi Angela, the Chinese are evidently stepping [up] their outreach to Philippine media. I have met several Pinoy journalists who have either gone or are going on trips to China upon invitation by the Chinese embassy. All these are part of their public diplomacy campaign to improve their image in the Philippines. If Katrina really feels uneasy about going, then I would advise her to wait until she is up to it.  I think the China invites will keep coming in the months & years to come.

But if she has not been to China & would like to see the “other side of the story,” so to speak, then I think she should accept the invite. Having seen her writings, I actually think she can think & analyze independently and so I would advise that she go ahead with the China visit from the perspective of “knowing the other side & understanding their mindset” so as to better analyze & rebut their propaganda.

Of course I could not resist a tiny rant.

ME.  So now, parang they’re being nice and reaching out to our media, pero tuloytuloy ang pag-challenge sa Pilipinas over the Spratleys?  I wonder if it’s an indication of how pliant they think our media people are. Just thinking out loud.

CHITO. I do agree that the Chinese actions in WPS are unacceptable & will simply trigger a counter-alliance vs them. I usually divide the dispute into 3 dimensions: territorial, maritime & geopolitical. The maritime aspect will hopefully be solved or at least clarified by the Arbitral Tribunal, if at all. The tribunal cannot [resolve] the territorial issue & it will be with us for a fairly long time, while the geopolitical issue (US-Japan vs China) will probably escalate in the foreseeable future. Hence the need to understand the Chinese strategy, their mindset. Which is what I am hoping Katrina will gain from the trip. I have seen others who have returned & become “cheerleaders” for China, which I am confident will not be the case for Katrina. My two cents worth.  [12 August 2015]

On Day 5 of 7, Katrina sent email from Beijing that I forwarded, un-redacted, to Chito and, later, Nelin. As it turned out, she was with a media group mostly older than she, and mostly old hands at the China gig. Posting excerpts here [redacted by her].

KATRINA.  This is their standard junket yata. Parang they’ve been on these trips together often enough, and they were surprised that I was even here. And today, after the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the talk with the Asian Affairs head, parang malinaw na rin that they are all anti-US … Feeling nila it’s important that the media is brought to China on trips like this, and China needs to give payola to media to balance out the money that America pays media raw … so that when they go back to the Philippines they can change the perceptions about China, etc. etc. And I’m like: lahat naman sila matatanda na and tainted na by their politics and biases. Too many of them are pro-Bongbong. May tendency rin to put down the Philippines among themselves.  … I want to tell nga the embassy girl na sana, next time, to get younger writers and columnists.

And oh my goodness, did I tell you? They fall asleep right in front of the people we meet with! As in humihilik and all. And P_ almost hit her head on the table as she fell asleep in front of the descendants of that Sultan of Sulu who’s buried in China. … And I get naman the ribbing and joking around. Pero talaga, minsan overboard. And the falling asleep in front of people. I wonder what the Chinese think of that.

Interesting naman that Tomb of the King of Sulu. But I don’t know that that specific moment stands for the kind of China, and the kind of Philippines, we are in the present. Oo nga, it was friendly, he died on his way back to Sulu and is the only foreign leader to be buried in China. And yes, his family members and descendants are Chinese citizens. Pero wala rin namang effort culturally for these descendants to care about the Philippines, or PH-China relations. Parang wala lang. May roots lang na gano’n. Tapos tapos na.  [11 Sept 2015]

CHITO. Thanks a lot, Angela, for sharing, Will keep this account “for my eyes only.” I did see a TV report on ANC by Willard [Cheng] on the Sultan of Sulu’s tomb in China, but didn’t know Katrina was part of the group. Her account of the visit is very interesting, insightful & extremely hilarious! She is right about the need to have younger writers be part of future groups. It must have been quite a scene to behold, to have the “seniors” dozing off & snoring during the briefings! Looking forward to Katrina’s columns & postings when she gets back. [13 Sept 2015]

When Chito was appointed Philippine Ambassador to China in 2016, it felt so right – like it was meant to be. It was where Chito pala was headed all along—from the First Quarter Storm to that first China trip, and exile, and immersion, and a lot of hard work and hard study that eventually made him the news bureau chief and scholar that he was, top of the heap, no less, in China studies and PH-China relations.

JAIME FLOR CRUZ.  Some three years into our forced exile, when Imelda Marcos visited Beijing, we received feelers through her Chinese hosts that she wanted to bring us home. Chito and our group thought the offer through, but quickly figured out the agenda of the dictator’s wife: she would bring us home as political trophies. We rebuffed the offer.

RAISSA ROBLES. [China’s Ambassador to Manila] Huang Xilian noted that Sta. Romana was “among the first Filipinos to visit the new China when he headed the visiting Philippine Youth Delegation in 1971”, after which he spent the next five decades as the country’s long-time resident, first as a student of Mandarin in Beijing, and then as ABC News’ China correspondent for over 20 years, before becoming the Philippine ambassador.

FLOR CRUZ. Chito mastered Mandarin, dived deep into China’s history and kept abreast with its current state of affairs. He made many friends and kept a rolodex of Chinese contacts. He learned how things worked in China—and why. He knew China inside out.

ROBLES. The late envoy played a key role in repairing once-tattered bilateral relations by advocating a more nuanced approach to the Philippines’ neighbour, after the 2016 arbitration ruling nullified Beijing’s claims to nearly all of South China Sea

FLOR CRUZ.  He knew, of course, that no one wanted the posting. “It’s a tough job,” he told me in a chat soon after he became ambassador.

In a last public address on March 5 this year, says Robles, the Ambassador advised the next president to hold firm to Ph’s strategy of engagement with China.

STA. ROMANA. It’s a combination of cooperation as much as possible, and pushback whenever necessary.

In private, John Silva, an old friend from La Salle days, tells of trying to find out how Chito felt about representing a government that’s at times indifferent to Chinese intrusion in Ph waters, and also the weakest of all ASEAN in safeguarding our territorial integrity.

JOHN SILVA.  Chito would reveal a nugget here and there and given Big Brother, the assumed bugging of the embassy, and the provided Chinese chauffeur, his remarks would be in near whispers.

The sum of his revelations were indicative of Chito’s style. He measured his comments so as not to be controversial to the listener. He though affirmed Chinese expansionism and rolled his eyes on the latest gaffes from the homeland, but that’s as much [as] one could expect from a diplomat.

I would have loved to see Chito rolling his eyes… over the latest gaffes once he was back in the homeland. Alas, he has gone ahead, gone too soon.

I wasn’t prepared for the sadness that came over me when I read of his passing. It is nothing, certainly, compared to the grief of Chito’s family and close friends, but grief nonetheless. The only other time I felt this kind of sadness was over the death of PNoy, whom I knew, too, only from afar. PNoy was a good man, he meant well. Chito was a good man, he did well. It’s all about nation.

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Remembering Chito Sta. Romana by Jaime Flor Cruz
Tributes pour in for late Philippine ambassador hailed as ‘good friend’ of China by Raissa Robles
Remembering Ambassador Chito Sta. Romana by John Silva