Who’s afraid of Senate impeachment trial?

The INC & DDS were still high on that huge almost-2M-strong political rally — yey! di na mai-impeach si VP Sara, the people have spoken! — when PBBM‘s chief legal counsel proceeded to douse cold water on the very idea.

Juan Ponce Enrile:  As a nation and a state , we will incur a very detrimental precedent if we follow the logic implicit in the INC rally that they mounted. Are we prepared and ready to face the long term consequences of that INC move? https://www.facebook.com/jp.enrile

Quite persuasive, sa totoo lang. As JPE warns, should Congress refuse to act on the impeachment complaints on the say-so of INC, it would set an awful precedent for the next time an impeachable government official screws up and deserves to be impeached — the Iglesia, or some other group, only has to rear its ugly head again and say NO, and that’s that?

Thankfully PBBM has acknowledged the wisdom of Enrile’s warning, as in, yes, indeed, junking the impeachment complaints would set a “problematic” precedent, but in the next breath he says:

“Wala nang congressman, wala nang senador, dahil nangangampanya na sila. Hindi tayo makakapagbuo ng quorum. And so, as a practical matter, the timing is very poor.” https://pco.gov.ph

Susog pa ni Senate Prez Chiz, kailangan pa daw pag-aralan, kung sakaling ma-refer to the senate ang Articles of Impeachment ngayon, kung kailan malapit nang mag-break for elections, back to square one ba after elections? https://www.gmanetwork.com/

Is Chiz playing dumb?  As far as I know, the Senate is a continuous body na kahit kailan ay hindi nababakante — kaya nga staggered ang elections, only 12 of 24 seats become vacant every three years (unlike the House of Reps).  Ibig sabihin, the trial can continue, pick up where the Senate court leaves off before election-break, once the new members have been sworn in. (Naturally the newbies are expected to be capable of catching up, or they have no place in those august halls.)

Atty. Rene Bueno:  Kapag impeachment court na ang Senado, puwede magpatuloy na litisin ang complaint … puwede ring i-set aside until after elections. … Marami nang jurisprudence re the Senate as a continuous body, no one can interrupt this function, and the main purpose is to maintain the stability of the government.  https://www.youtube.com/

Prof. Antonio Contreras: The concept of the Philippine Senate as a continuing body refers to its structure, composition and functioning, which ensures that its operations continue seamlessly despite periodic changes in its membership. This principle has legal and practical implications, making the Senate distinct from the House of Representatives. https://web.archive.org/

Fr. Ranhilio Aquino:  It is instructive that the 1987 Constitution and the 1935 Constitutions of the Philippines have staggered senators’ terms—thus assuring the continuity of the chamber…. https://manilastandard.net/

So. Malinaw na initiating the impeachment trial before elections won’t be a waste of time and effort for the Senate. Of course it would annoy the INC & DDS, and surely lose them some votes in May, but, hey, di ba’t matutuwa tiyak ang mas nakararaming mga Katoliko at Muslim atbp. na pro-impeachment — from BBM peeps to Leni Kakampinks — huwag ismolin o isnabin ang mga boto nila.

Kaya rin wala akong kabilib-bilib sa hirit ng Lower House Reps na useless isampa ang kaso sa Senado dahil sigurado silang i-a-acquit ng Senado ang VP.  Parang wala pala silang kabilib-bilib sa mga ebidensiyang napalutang nila mismo sa mga hearing ng Lower and Upper Houses re confidential funds atbp. So. Kung iyan pa rin ang pakiramdam nila after elections, hindi pa rin nila aaksyunan? Never mind their mandate?

If memory serves, ganyang ganyan din noong impeachment trials nina Erap at Corona. Walang katiyakan. Pero both times, in different ways, natanggal sila. Can it be that the powers-that-be do not really want the VP impeached by the Senate, bahala na lang sa 2028?

Suddenly I’m remembering VP Sara saying back in October 2024 that she has a list of 5 impeachable offenses by PBBM. Could it be why BBM doesn’t want her impeached, so that she won’t, can’t, try to impeach him? Quid pro quo, I’ll scratch your back, you scratch mine, with the INC playing gamemaster? Sana naman hindi.

 

 

It’s a crazy planet

My YouTube algorithm is dominated by posts on the INC-DDS-KOJC rally, the Los Angeles wildfires, the Tulfo takedown, and the Pepsi challenge.

The rally. Two million daw ang darating sa Lunes. Kahit pa pinagtatalunan pa rin kung pro-BBM ba o pro-Sara ang Iglesia. Ang malinaw lang ay: puro sila anti-impeachment. And the DDS are making a big deal of the suspension of classes in Manila and Pasay, and the transfer of venue from Liwasang Bonifacio to the Luneta Grandstand. Ibig daw sabihin, anti-impeachment and pro-peace talaga ang presidente. Sey naman ng iba, hindi, inilalayo lang niya sa palasyo ang rally, in case magkagulo.

The wildfires.  Does Trump get the message? He has called climate change a hoax, refusing to recognize environmental dangers, instead blaming his political opponents for the rising frequency of natural disasters or proclaiming them to be acts of God. He has promised to drill for more oil and cut back on renewable energy. https://apnews.com Last month he warned the EU that it must buy more U.S. oil and gas or else face tariffs. https://www.usnews.com What’s it going to take kayâ to make him see that it’s time to battle climate change, better late than never.

The takedown. The Erwin aka Erich Tulfo account of his long stay in the U.S. is revealed to be full of holes. Nag-TNT ba siya o nag-enlist sa U.S. Army? Kung TNT, ibig sabihin ay wala siyang dokumento; kung nag-enlist, ibig sabihin nakapagpapeke siya ng dokumento. Ano ba talaga? Walang katapusang “diskarte”? At totoo ba ang mga lumalabas na di kanais-nais na kuwento, di-umano, tungkol sa Tulfo brand? Huwag daw iboto?

The challenge.  Tama naman si Richard Heydarian https://www.youtube.com It was controversial, and it was tragic: let’s hear the perspective of women and other victims of abuse in showbiz history and culture. It’s about time, too. Beyond current issues of freedom of expression and right to privacy, there was prevailing then a low regard for starlets who dared bare their skin, in effect, thereby, allegedly, subliminally, inviting male advances, never mind consent. Martial law pa man din. There was just no keeping track of the case, thanks to controlled media. Next thing we knew, case withdrawn na. Nagkápatawarán na daw.

 

DDS to join hands with INC 13 Jan

If I’m reading DDS vloggers right, super-excited sila to join the INC peace rally on Jan 13, that’s next Monday.  Nagkakaisa sila with Iglesia Ni Cristo vs the Lower House impeaching VP Sara, and they’re expecting huge crowds not just in Liwasang Bonifacio but also in plazas and parks across the islands (korek me if I’m wrong), and even abroad, kung saan-saan magmo-mobilize daw ang mga miyembro ng Iglesia at jo-join naman ang mga OFW na marami ay DDS.

If I heard right (ang hirap talaga sa vlogs, walang transcript, sometimes you have to listen twice, thrice, to be sure) parang inaasahan din nila na sasagot ang mga pro-Marcos with rallies of their own, and maybe just maybe maaaring magkagulo (remembering Edsa Tres 2001 when Arroyo declared a state of emergency), which would give daw Marcos reason to declare martial law (that’s what the NSC meetings are about daw), which would galvanize the anti-Marcos factions in the armed forces into defecting (a la Enrile-Ramos-Ram in 1986, asa pa) which would see daw INC & DDS morphing into a people power force that would oust PBBM (who wants to rule forever daw), which would see VP Sara ascending the throne (already).

Buong buo ang movie in their minds. But where are the rest of us in that story? I imagine that we’re with the anti-DDS and anti-BBM vloggers who are pushing for impeachment just because we don’t want another 6 years of a Duterte who’s pro-China, pro-EJKs, and pro-AliceGuos, unless of course Sara can convince us that she will not do a Digong AND that she is not corrupt or has never been involved in any illegal operations.

Samantala, the Lower House of Congress is sitting on the impeachment complaints kasi daw walang katiyakan that 2/3 of the current Senate sitting as Impeachment Court would vote to impeach, or that a verdict would be forthcoming before suspending for the May elections. Better to wait till after elections when, hopefully, winner senators are those who would vote to impeach?

But really, sabi nga ni Ronald Llamas who was PNoy‘s political adviser in the time of CJ Renato Corona‘s impeachment in 2012, when Senate Court hearings started they didn’t have the votes to convict. And yet at the end of it, only three voted to acquit. PBBM only has to do a PNoy, maybe? Unless, of course, the INC-DDS rallies (24 hours long? longer?) prove too persuasive for vote-hungry congressional candidates to ignore. The devil is in the politics.

On risks and opportunities, 2025

It’s good to be optimistic about the new year, to hope it will be better than the year just past, but it behooves us to be realistic as well. Here’s advice from the Business Mirror columnist I follow, a Facebook friend. Read all of it here: https://businessmirror.com.ph/2024/12/30/the-coming-year-of-risk/

THE COMING YEAR OF RISK
John Mangun

… Risk is defined as “a situation involving exposure to danger, harm, or loss”. But it also means “the probability of an event occurring” and “the impact that an event may have”. In 2025 we will witness increased risk in the broadest sense of the word; increased danger, increased probability of that danger occurring, and increased opportunities. This is across the spectrum of geo/local politics and governance and geo/local economics and commerce.

“The risk of the risk happening will bring a great risk when it happens”.

… I had previously written that I see 2025 as going to be a year of hard choices, that is having to make difficult decisions in choosing one of the presented options. Black and white, shades of grey, and “the lesser of two evils” are all around us. However, the hard choice/s that I am speaking of is different from choosing mango instead of banana for breakfast.

In 2025, this is what I see happening. Two paths lie before me: one easier and one requiring more effort. The easy one is smooth and where I usually travel. The other is more outside my comfort zone but with both leading to the same place. I will pick the path that I usually avoided, replacing the potential for “immediate benefit” with long-term gains.

That brings me to my personal strategy for 2025. This should be a year of increased self-sufficiency for all of us.

That is not about raising your own chickens. It is about making your own milk tea. Ordering a milk tea delivered by motorcycle is one choice. Going to your kitchen and making it yourself is another option, a better choice for 2025.

Anticipating and preparing for greater risk also comes back to my basic “survival” strategy: figure out the worst-case scenario and then make plans to survive and thrive in that situation. Even in an urban area, depending on your housing condition, you can have a separate water tank to store a three- or four-day supply. A basic generator is a bargain at less than P5,000 during a prolonged brownout.

… You can make a bucket list of everything that is wrong in the world and the Philippines like one local pundit. Or find opportunities in a risky world and increase your wealth. Your choice.

On June 2, 2025, the cycle trend goes into a yearlong uptrend forecasting increased volatility and “risk”. I guarantee that the next 18 months are going to see increased risk. What you do with that risk is your choice. Happy New Year, my friend.