Category: elections

Last two minutes #Halalan2022

Imelda Marcos, 92, must be on tenterhooks.  We haven’t heard from her for a while now, but I like to think that she knows, sees, hears what’s going on, and that if the surveys are to be believed, tila panalo na si Marcos Jr., Oplan Balik-Palasyo soon to be accomplished, she must be so excited.

But who knows. Ang dami pang puwedeng mangyari. In Imelda’s place  I’d be on some happy anti-anxiety pill by day, and a sosyal -zepam by night, to see me through these next 60 days or so just because, you know, what if?  What if may talo pala, just like in 2016.

What if the kakampinks are right, that the monster crowds of VP Leni’s rallies are a sign that there’s hope of overtaking Marcos Jr. in  the surveys?

And what if other kakampinks are right who simply disbelieve surveys that find Marcos Jr. leading by a comfortable margin … who shrug off the big survey outfits as “bayaran” [as in “False Asia”] … who have this romantic notion that these surveys aren’t tapping the true pulse of the electorate (samples too small, not asking the right questions, atbp) … and others who think that survey respondents are just afraid to speak the truth but dare blurt out Junior’s name just to be pasaway.

What if, indeed.  What if Leni could still win it?  Then the current surge of engaged energy among young creatives aching itching to help, networking across communities, now moving on their own [funded by like-minded titos and titas] to both level up and level down campaign rhetoric in social media and on the ground – especially on the ground, including far-flung LGUs where only Marcos-Duterte posters are to be seen – can only help win this. Hope springs eternal.

Wishful thinking ‘yang balitang the Marcos campaign is losing steam, running out of money even. Aint gonna happen. Mas malamang na bumubuwelo sila for the final push in the last three weeks when they they pull out all the stops — all systems go, all hands on deck, all resources mobilized.

Expect no miracles except that which we can make happen if we act as one in these “last two minutes” when every effort, big and small, is focused on targeting that 31% that we need to convert to our side.  One major concerted action for the good of the whole, beyond what was done the past four months by the official campaign, might surpass expectations.

Sana magulantang natin si Imelda.

The Debt Trap

JAH ROSALES @alyasjah | PhilStar 4 Mar. JUST IN:

The outstanding debt of the Philippines hits a record P12.03 trillion as of January. This now stands as the largest debt pile that the country has posted in history. 

Lucked on this 11-point reaction of banker @Manny Gonzalez on Facebook in a @Boo Chanco thread.  In effect it disputes the Manila Times editorial where Central Bank governor Benjamin Diokno is cited as saying that Filipinos should not worry about the public debt.   

I’ve always worried about the public debt especially in relation to the automatic appropriation law for debt service, originally Marcos PD 1177. But there’s a lot more to worry about, and Gonzalez offers a banker’s perspective.  Plenty of food for thought before we end up (if we aren’t already) walking off that cliff.

MANNY GONZALEZ.  Back in the 1970s I was one of the very first bankers to nearly get fired over disagreements on how to gauge country creditworthiness. My superiors wanted to lend to Country X; I tried to veto the syndicated loan on the grounds that Country X had only one viable export (i.e., source of repayment for the loan). Guess who won. But I was wrong. Now the country has three big hitters in its export economy, and it runs a current account surplus (meaning in principle it has the means to pay down its debt).

1. Our 2022 deficit is roughly P 1.7 Trillion (P5 Trillion Expenses, P 3.3 Trillion income). This equals about USD 30 billion in round numbers, vs. current external debt of USD 110 billion.

2. The deficit will have to be funded with borrowings, or the government must print money.

3. Assuming we don’t just print money, the borrowings will have to be mainly foreign, because borrowing all of that locally (equal to USD 15,000 per living Filipino) would soak up liquidity and fiscally depress growth prospects.

4. Right now, borrowing USD 30 billion will not be a problem. Not because of anything about the Philippines, but because world interest rates are so low that institutions with money are chasing any investment that yields more than a US Government Note.

5. But this might not always be the case. The history of sovereign lending is that the money keeps flowing. Until, one day, it doesn’t. Then there is a massive devaluation and economic hardship.

6. Many countries you wouldn’t suspect have large external debts – Japan and Switzerland, for example. The difference with the Philippines is that Switzerland has a balanced budget and a current account surplus so lenders feel secure. Japan has a huge budget deficit, but a current account surplus, and such is its international reputation that investors see lending to Japan as a way of getting a few more fractions of a percent interest without much extra risk. Neither Japan nor Switzerland is in any imminent danger of having the borrowing tap turned off.

7. The Philippines, though, has both a current account deficit and a national government budget deficit. One or both of these need to be fixed or one day, at the drop of a hat and with very little prior warning, lenders will stop funding our deficits and not only that will want all their previous lending repaid.

8. This finally brings me back to the question no one in this country is asking: How are we spending that P5 Trillion (the national government’s planned expenditures for 2022). To recall my Country X, it spent its foreign borrowings more or less wisely, developing two viable export sectors from nothing. (Good thing, too, because its original export has withered due to world market conditions.)

9. How is our P5 Trillion being spent? 1/5 (equal to almost 70% of the budget deficit) is spent on NCR, where it costs (apparently) THREE TIMES MORE to give residents basic services, than any other part of the country. It costs more to provide water to Manilans, and will get ever more costly, as aquifers run dry; it costs more to protect them from criminals, given the congestion and squalor. We are even apparently spending USD 200 million to “improve the earthquake resistance of government buildings in NCR”. (Can you think of any government building in Manila in the past 100 years that suffered even USD 10 million damage? This is like hiring and paying a brain surgeon to tell you to put a Band-Aid on a cut. The remedy is 100 times more costly than what it supposedly avoids. This particular project is courtesy of the World Bank, which has become one of the most clueless organizations on earth.)

10. As for the rest of the P 5 Trillion, I couldn’t identify anything in it that has a clear chance of increasing tax collections or generating export earnings. They’re all just general hopes and wishes that if we Build, Build, Build (bahala na what we build), somehow GDP and exports will rise, and further down yet, someone will pay more taxes. Not bloody likely. MOST OF THE PROPOSED BUILD, BUILD, BUILD PROJECTS HAVE A NEGATIVE ECONOMIC RATE OF RETURN, ON TOP OF A NEGATIVE FINANCIAL RATE OF RETURN. That means they will weigh directly on both the government budget and the international current account balance. The Metro Manila subway is a SURE LOSER in every respect. No country in the world has succeeded in operating a subway system at a profit. Making a commute more comfortable or prestigious is not an economic “benefit”. Linking already-congested areas to each other is not “economic development”. A subway system is CONSUMPTION, not INVESTMENT. The same arguments apply to all these new airports designed to glorify local politicians. New York is one of the world’s very few cities with three major airports (LaGuardia, JFK, and Newark). Why does Metro Manila need FOUR?

11. By the way, the most indebted country in the world is Palau. It owes almost USD 1 million per living Palau person. That is because Palau listened to the Chinese government, and borrowed freely for its own Build Build Build. Until one day the Chinese asked to be repaid.

What is most tragic is that not a single one of our leaders, technocrats, or Presidential or even Vice-Presidential candidates, seems to have any opinion on the budget except to mouth that, sure, Build is Good.

We are walking off a cliff, and no one seems to understand that we are.

EDSA ’86 — Aquino vs. Marcos lang daw ?!?

SABI-SABI NG MGA MARCOS #1

Ang EDSA daw ay hindi pag-aalsa laban kay Marcos nung 1986.  Ang EDSA daw ay laban lang ng dalawang political families: Aquino vs Marcos.

HINDI TOTOO.

Ang EDSA ay pag-aalsa ng taongbayan kontra-Marcos nang dinaya ni Marcos ang snap election.

Dati nang gawi ni Marcos ang pandaraya sa  mga referendum at eleksyon in the 14 years of Martial Law – lutong Makoy, ika nga.

Yung 1986 snap election ang naging last straw.  Agad kasing napatunayan ng taongbayan na may nagaganap na dayaan nung mag-walk-out ang computer technicians ng COMELEC — iba daw ang vote-count nila sa vote-count na ibinibigay sa mga media na hawak ni Marcos.

Balita pa ng NAMFREL, sa mga balwarte ng Oposisyon may tatlong milyong rehistradong botante ang hindi nakaboto – nag-disappear na lang ang names nila sa voters’ lists.  Icing on the cake na lang ang confession ni Enrile nung Feb 22 na dinaya nila si Cory sa Cagayan.

Taongbayan na dinaya ang kalaban ni Marcos noong EDSA.

Taongbayan na sawang-sawa na sa panunupil at korapsyon ang nanindigan laban kay Marcos noong EDSA.

KUNG AWAY-PAMILYA LANG ang kina Marcos at Ninoy … gusto lang ni Marcos na mapatahimik si Ninoy … bakit buong bansa ang isinailalim sa Martial Law?

Kung si Ninoy lang ang problema, bakit umabot si Marcos sa Proclamation 1081 at Batas Militar?

ANG TOTOO:  Ang goal talaga ni Marcos ay mamuno sa Pilipinas habangbuhay.  Bagong Lipunan = Marcos Dynasty.  Marcos Forever.  Pagkatapos niya, si Imelda.  At pag-ready na, si Imee.  Na puwede lang mangyari kung walang Ninoy at kung tuloy-tuloy ang Batas Militar.

Pero dahil may isang astig na Ninoy Aquino na nanindigan laban sa diktador, na siya niyang ikinamatay, lalong namulat ang taongbayan sa tapang at kabayanihan ni Ninoy at sa kalupitan, panunupil, at panlilinlang ng rehimeng Marcos.

ANG TAONGBAYAN AT SI CORY

Taongbayan na mulat sa demokrasya at kalayaan ang nag-udyok kay Cory na tumakbong pangulo noong 1986.

At nang dayain ni Marcos ang snap election, taongbayan ang nagbigay-buhay sa crony boycott ni Cory.  Ika-pitong araw na ng boykot nang mag-defect sina Enrile at Ramos.  [Humahabol much?]

Sa kainitang iyon ng boykot, parang hulog ng langit ang datíng ng military defection.  Wow.  May armed forces na si Cory?!?  Agad sumaklolo sa EDSA ang taongbayan.

Ayun pala, hindi type ni Cory ang dalawang bandido, and vice versa,

Si Ramos ang nagpa-aresto kay Ninoy close to midnight of September 22 1972. Si Enrile ang “jailer” ni Ninoy 1972-1980.

Kung si Cory ang nasunod noong nag-defect sina Enrile, sa Luneta niya yinaya ang supporters niya, hindi sa EDSA.  Mas gusto niya sanang manood lang from the sidelines habang nagbabanatan at nagpapatayan ang puwersang repormista at puwersang loyalista. [Imagine. What if.]

Pero napangunahan ng taongbayan si Cory.  Sumusugod na sila sa EDSA nang nabalitaan ni Cory ang defection.  Humaharang na sila sa tangke nang bumalik si Cory from Cebu.

PEOPLE POWER

Sa huli, nang kumaripas ng takbo ang mga Marcos, hindi ito dala ng takot sa lumalakas na armadong puwersa ng kaaway – nagmamadali silang umexit dala ng matinding takot sa (unarmed) People Power na nagbabadya sa gates ng Malacañang.

People Power din, na nagbabadya sa gates ng Clark Air Base, ang ikinatakot ni Gen. Teddy Allen kaya siya humingi ng permiso sa Washington DC na ilipad paalis ng Pinas, sa lalong madaling panahon, ang  barkadang Marcos-Danding-Ver.

Ibang klase ang powers ng taongbayan kapag mulat, maraming marami, at nagkakaisa.  Walang armas, pero matapang at umaasinta.  Who knows what People Power can do?  Or make happen?

Iyan ang fear ni Marcos nung Pebrero 25 1986.  Hindi na siya in-control.  Mabigat  ang kalaban.  Anything could happen.  Kaya sila tumakbo.

BLACK PROP

Siyempre baliktad ang version of the story ng Marcos heirs.  Wala-lang daw ang EDSA, pulitika lang, away ng dalawang pamilya, kinidnap nga sila, kawawa naman sila.

Ang kakapal.

Ang kampanya ni Marcos Jr. is built on huge lies that paint the Marcoses all good and the Aquinos and EDSA all evil. 

Anything to justify a return to the Palace. 

Grabe ang riches at stake, ill-gotten and all. 

Worth na worth lying for, in the Marcos playbook.

*

read the marcos curse https://stuartsantiago.com/the-marcos-curse- 

the marcos curse #ByeByeMarcos

as if the omicron surge and the duterte government’s care-less response weren’t bad enough, we have to deal with a marcos jr. running for president…

one who brings back awful memories of martial law, the conjugal dictatorship, the greatest robbery of a government, the murder of ninoy aquino…

one who faces disqualification cases filed by civil society groups on grounds of income tax evasion and moral turpitude that the COMELEC is taking its sweet time deciding.

not surprisingly there’s talk of “insider” info that the COMELEC, whose seven commissioners are duterte appointees, is “not inclined to disqualify the client of legendary solicitor general Estelito Mendoza of the elder Marcos.

raissa robles is right.  “The Marcoses never really left home” (Inquirer 2014).

In 1998, by Imee Marcos’ own reckoning, “we waited 12 years to be on the right side of the fence.” Right side meant a political alliance with then victorious President-elect Joseph Estrada, velvet seats in Congress for Imee and her mother, and a governorship for Bongbong.

An ecstatic Imee spilled the family’s secret to success: “Many professionals were appointed by my father. So you have this immense bedrock of Marcos appointees who keep moving up.”

Like secret stay-behind units, this vast army of professionals scattered in all sectors of society have defended the Marcoses and helped erase the dark legacy of their regime. 

it’s like ferdinand marcos laid a cruel curse on the nation that the children are happily carrying on in his name, in his memory, with the eager support of a “bedrock” of grateful and beholden loyalists, bureaucrats and professionals from all sectors, who held the fort while they were away, and who have since moved up to real positions of power.

maybe this explains why the court of appeals dropped the jail sentence in marcos jr’s appeal of the RTC decision vis a vis his failure to file income tax returns for four years?

and maybe why COMELEC’s 2nd division ruled against canceling his COC despite the NO to question #22 because the respondent daw “cannot be said to have deliberately attempted to mislead, misinform, or hide a fact which would otherwise render him ineligible” ?!?

really ?!?  as in, he didn’t mean to lie?  is that like saying it was an honest mistake?

but is there anything honest about marcos jr. who has lied again and again about historical facts vis a vis martial law and his parents’ plundering ways, human rights violations and EDSA ’86?

and isn’t the fact that he took 4 years to follow the court of appeal’s order to pay up an indication of moral turpitude — a demonstration of arrogance, as though he were above the law?  isn’t that of a piece with the supreme court’s 2016 definition of moral turpitude in G.R. No. 219603?

Moral turpitude is defined as everything which is done contrary to justice, modesty, or good morals; an act of baseness, vileness or depravity in the private and social duties which a man owes his fellowmen, or to society in general. Although not every criminal act involves moral turpitude, the Court is guided by one of the general rules that crimes mala in se involve moral turpitude while crimes mala prohibita do not.  G.R. No. 219603

mala in se are acts wrongful in itself.  mala prohibita are acts that are not inherently evil or wrong.

i submit that tax evasion and lying about having been convicted are inherently wrong — no ifs or buts, no benefit of any doubt — and the liar and tax evader marcos jr. should be disqualified.

here’s praying the COMELEC en banc — or failing there, the supreme court — sees the light and disqualifies marcos jr. once and for all time.

otherwise these institutions would be complicit in perpetuating, keeping alive, the marcos curse on nation, and history and posterity will judge them harshly for betrayal of public trust.