Category: america

“We are here to stay.”

that’s U.S. president barack obama telling asia  that the U.S. military would expand its role in the Asia-Pacific region, despite budget cuts, declaring America was “here to stay” as a Pacific power which would help shape the region’s future.

he said it in australia, in a pre-ASEAN summit visit, but he might as well have said it here, where U.S. forces continue to be based (“visiting” kuno) and where hillary clinton happened to be celebrating the mutual (so-called) defense treaty with the prez and shrugging off anti-America demonstrations by the militant left.

not that it needed saying.  alam naman natin, the history is indisputable, they never meant to leave.

mubarak’s good friday?

so mubarak has dug in.   insists that he is the legitimate ruler until september elections.   his supporters agree, afraid that if he goes life will get even more chaotic, not only for pro-mubarak egyptians, but for israel and america, because what if the muslim brotherhood takes over.

but that wasn’t very smart, siccing his armed goons on the protesting crowds, trying to disperse them?   incredibly the people are holding on and promise even bigger crowds today.   they’d rather have chaos without mubarak than with.  oo nga naman, kahit paano, it would be a step forward just getting rid of this aged tyrant.

not very smart either, blaming the uprising on foreign journalists and trying to muzzle foreign media, i suppose in anticipation of the march to the palace.   maybe they’ll block all roads to the palace?   or maybe the military forces might finally be forced to reveal whoseside they’re on, and whether it’s on the side of the people or of mubarak, they don’t want the world to see?   mas mahirap nga namang i-spin after, not just for mubarak but also for obama.

huge crowd packing liberation square right now.   the area reportedly being cordoned off by soldiers.   hopefully only to keep out pro-mubarak goons.   otherwise, time for obama to walk the talk, to put it mildly.

mubarak / marcos / endgame

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said he will not run for a new term in office in September elections, but rejected demands that he step down immediately and leave the country, vowing to die on Egypt’s soil, in a television address Tuesday after a dramatic day in which a quarter-million protesters called on him to go.

Mubarak said he would serve out the rest of his term working to ensure a “peaceful transfer of power” and carry out amendments to rules on presidential elections.

in feb 86 marcos too was loathe to go.   until the very last minute marcos was trying to convince enrile to return to the fold.   the last phone call was feb 25 past 8 a.m.   enrile was getting ready to leave camp crame for cory’s inauguration in club filipino.   marcos suggested a provisional government that enrile would lead, but he marcos would stay on as honorary president.   huling hirit kumbaga.

President Obama, clearly frustrated by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s intention to retain his hold on power until elections later this year, said Tuesday evening that he has told Mubarak that a transition to representative government “must begin now.”

In brief remarks at the White House, Obama made no mention of Mubarak’s announcement that he had decided not to stand for reelection. Instead, Obama said he had told the Egyptian president in a telephone call that this was a “moment of transformation” in Egypt and that “the status quo is not sustainable.”

president reagan too was loathe to publicly and directly ask marcos to resign.   early in the morning of feb 24 he sent a private message that the marcoses would be welcome in the u.s.   also he gave instructions that marcos be “approached carefully” and “asked rather than told” to depart.   it was not until 7:30 in the evening that the white house finally “endorsed the provisional government of Mrs. Corazon Aquino, abandoning a 20-year ally in Mr. Marcos for the sake of a ‘peaceful transition’ in the Philippines.” . . . “Attempts to prolong the life of the present regime by violence are futile. A solution to this crisis can only be achieved through a peaceful transition to a new government.”

Angry demonstrators, fed up with Mubarak’s three-decade rule, jeered at the president’s remarks while watching his speech on TV in Tahrir Square on Tuesday night and chanted that he should go immediately.

Senior Egyptian opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei, who has expressed readiness to lead the country’s popular uprising, has said that the people’s message is clear and they want Mubarak out now and not in September.

After Mubarak’s address, the protesters said that this Friday would be the “Friday of departure” for the president and announced that they would be gathering at his palace on Friday afternoon.

in feb 86 while the coryistas were still focused on shielding the edsa camps from marcos forces, leftist groups, acting on the false alarm that the marcoses were gone, had moved on to mendiola, only to find that the rumors were false.   but it was these militants who baited soldiers to fire warning shots, which freaked out the marcoses who thought that the edsa crowds were coming to attack the palace.  (the coryistas came too but only after cory’s inauguration.) and so they started making plans to move out and asked the americans for transpo to get to paoay.   but paoay’s airport had no lights so they had to make a stopover in clark that night.   which gave the new government time to consider the implications of allowing marcos to get to paoay.   in the end cory ordered that the marcoses be flown out of the philippines to prevent further civil unrest.

yes, a nonviolent seige on the pharaoh’s palace, it’s time.

egypt / edsa

in the beginning it seemed like egypt was doing an edsa.   and then it became clear that, where we had cory-in-waiting to replace marcos, the anti-mubarak forces have no leader to replace the dictator with, and are/were depending on, expecting, the united states, perceived to be the power behind mubarak, to take care of removing him and installing a transition government until elections can be held.   which brings home the effect of 30 long years of martial law.   suwerte pa rin tayo, 14 years lang, not long enough for censorship and suppression to dumb down the pre-martial law generation.

but there are some similarities.   like reagan in 1986, obama seems to need convincing that it’s time for america’s friend to cut, and cut cleanly.   the fear here in 1986 was that the communists might take over a weak new leader, and there go the U.S. bases.   the fear now in egypt is that the the muslim brotherhood might take over a weak new leader, and there goes israel beloved.

also, an imminent economic collapse, though not because of a deliberate boycott of government and crony businesses but just because everything has shut down and millions, maybe billions, are being lost everyday, must find mubarak, having lost all credibility with what seems a majority of egyptian people, under extreme pressure to ship out.   it would seem too that the hope of european leaders is for america to fly him out a la marcos, let him fall with some dignity rather than be put to trial a la saddam hussein, as some egyptian protestors wish.

so far i haven’t heard any news of a split military, which greatly helped our people power in ’86.   but who knows what’s going on behind the scenes.

too bad that nobel laureate elbaradai is an expat pala and therefore not really wellknown or well-loved in egypt.   he’s the perfect leader for the transition, i would think, and the people of egypt could do worse than to rally behind him.   a united opposition can bring down mubarak quite quickly, and give obama no choice but to support a transition government and start over re israel and the middle east.

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Revolution
Is Mubarak’s time up?
Obama’s Mideast Moment of Truth
Will Egypt mobilize or radicalize Arab youth?
Democracy’s Drawback
Egypt without Mubaraks: Sampson Option or New Political Order?