new year wish 2011

clinton’s campaign strategist carville was right, “it’s the economy, stupid” that won clinton the presidency in 1992, trumping bush senior’s foreign policy high from the “successful” gulf war.

here at home it would seem that the president and his men know it too, that it’s the economy that truly and urgently needs working on.

“We are conscious of the fact that we are in a debt hole. We can only begin to climb out if we strictly implement austerity measures and cut down on unnecessary spending,” said Malacañang aide Paquito Ochoa.

but is there a plan? asks business world‘s amelia h.c. ylagan:

The national budget in 1986 was P250 billion and 70% of that went to servicing the US$26-billion debt that Cory’s predecessor, Ferdinand Marcos, grew from the $465-million 1965 level, in his 20-year reign. The 50 million Filipinos (in Cory’s time) had to live on the remaining 30% of budget. And then there were the many military coups d’état from the misguided military who wanted to take advantage of the weakness of the country at that time. Cory could not have worked a miracle in six years, many now allow in judgment of her. Some may also say that in comparison, her successor, President Fidel Ramos, probably benefitted from the six-year cycle of painful adjustment and realignment before him, and he successfully augmented what would have been economic deficits with significant one-time proceeds of the privatization of some big government-owned and -controlled corporations.

Survival and growth might be more difficult in Noynoy’s presidency. There are 92.2 million Filipinos (84% more than 1986 population), owing about P47,000 per head for about P4.3-trillion debt (US$ 95 billion approx.) The Asian Development Bank (ADB) warns of extreme debt stress as the country holds the highest debt-to-GDP ratio at 56.5%, the highest among Asian countries. This key measure shows how a country can manage its obligations from its annual economic output, with a declining ratio viewed favorable as this means the country would allot a smaller amount to pay off its debt. But based on the ADB’s projections, the Philippines’ debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio may rise by 15% by 2015 in a scenario of higher primary deficit to GDP; by 5.1% amid lower nominal GDP growth rate; by 3% on higher nominal interest rates on public debt; and by 12.7% on a combination of the three negative scenarios.

So, is there a plan to address these scenarios of where we, as a country might be going, how we are going to get there, and when we will get there.

grabe, we are deeply in debt to the tune of Php 4.3 trillion, that’s $ 95 billion.   ylagan rightly asks if there’s a plan, what’s the plan, considering that the president vetoed the debt cap provision inserted by senator joker arroyo in the P1.645-trillion 2011 national budget, which would have limited government’s borrowing to 55 % of gross domestic product.

Malacanang has defended President Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III’s decision to veto the debt cap in the 2011 General Appropriations Act.

Presidential spokesperson Edwin Lacierda said this is a good time to borrow given the favorable market conditions like the strong peso and the appetite for peso bonds.

so that’s the plan?   since creditors are willing to lend, we will just borrow and borrow, ganoon, bahala na si batman.   but, as senator joker points out:

The US is, in many ways, our model. There is a debt ceiling in the US President’s power to borrow money, but the US Congress would invariably increase the ceiling whenever it is justified by necessity,” he said.

“For the cause of fiscal prudence and transparency, why can’t we adopt the same?” he asked.x

why not indeed?   i wonder if it has anything to do with what former senator orly mercado said, when he was the new president erap’s secretary of national defense, that when you’re in the driver’s seat na pala, the view, the perspective, changes and campaign promises prove unrealistic.   or something to that effect.

could it be the same for president aquino?   but who exactly is holding him hostage to the old rotten system, making real CHANGE impossible?   what exactly are these forces beyond his control?   i wish he’d tell us so we can all grow up and face the unpleasant consequences of our past actions and/or inactions.

and then, again, the president could just be in over his head?   sana hindi.   and that’s my happy new year wish for us all ;))

kamoteng kahoy & cancer

conventional medicine continues to dismiss laetrile therapy as quackery but my sister swears by it.   in her latest blogpost Cassava: The Local Laetrile she tells her stories of how even terminal cancer patients who can’t afford laetrile have been helped by the vitB17-rich kamoteng kahoy.   chewed raw in small quantities for the juice, or mashed and used as poultice, this lowly root relieves pain and even closes oozing ulcers.

christmas 2010

if memory serves, not since the erap impeachment trial of 2000 has the holiday season been as politically charged as this one.   the acquittal of hubert webb et al continues to be front page news, with former nbi directors exchanging barbs and brickbats.   the dissing of the truth commission is still a sore point among the anti-gma.   the release of senator antonio trillanes et al and of ex-general carlos garcia on the right, and of the morong 43 (38?) on the left, have raised temperatures anew among ideologues, hard and soft, die-hards and half-bakeds.   and what about the conyo catfight on twitter between carlos celdran and james cordova over COMMUNISM, the big bad word, no less, what fun!   waiting with not bated breath for the tibaks to not weigh in, why not nga ba, ever (joma, are you there)?  

on the lighter babaw side the absence of twink macaraig from the brew for two consecutive episodes even if she’s been seen anchoring the news until yesterday has raised eyebrows, wazzup wazzup?   was it esposo’s philstar column berating her for “recklessly speculating” about the consequences for alfaro etc., or was it her remarks on the brew re tv patrol being too showbizzy , or whoa could it be that something she said about krissyleaky?   reminds me of an fb status that asked whether a news anchor loses some credibility when she also dishes out personal opinions on a sosyal venue like the brew.   or something like that.   sayang, di ko na mahanap, valid question it is.   but wait, carlosceldran just twitted that twink will be back next week, abangan, baka naman nagshopping nga lang.   meanwhile, truce muna.   merry christmas muna to one and all ;))

simbang gabi RH blues

to get in the christmas mood, for a change, nagsisimbang gabi kami ni katrina.   the first dawn we went to st. francis church along shaw blvd., a three-minute drive from the house.   the big church was full, all seats taken, standing room only for many late-comers.

to our dismay, merong pre-mass video about RH, complete with a hillary clinton clip equating RH with abortion.   the audio was bad, and i was glad.  (i wondered if this was regular sunday fare too.)

worse, during the looooong sermon, mga kalahating oras yata yon, at least five maybe ten minutes were devoted to the evils of RH na, sabi daw mismo ni first lady hillary clinton, is the same thing as abortion,  all in the context of na contrary to isaiah the prophet’s admonition to “observe what is right, and do what is just”.

nagpanting ang tenga ko.   naalaala ko tuloy si carlos celdran.   sayang wala akong placard saying, it’s a lie!   as if.   di ko naman type na umeksena.   thought of walking out instead but it didn’t feel like the right thing to do.   we wanted to finish the mass more than to make a statement.

over breakfast we wondered if we should find another church.   a friend said it might be the same in all parish churches, on order of the bishops.   we decided to give st. francis another chance, maybe it would be another priest, maybe it would be another kind of sermon.

hayy.   no such luck.   same priest.   again, this time in the context of joseph’s genealogy, the long string of “begats” tracing his ancestry to abraham, ipinasok na naman ang RH=abortion.   this time naalala ko my parents, regular churchgoers all their lives.   they would have been so shocked and scandalized to hear such talk in a church, during mass.   my ears shut down, my mind wandered, wondering where to next.

day 3 we tried christ the king in green meadows.   smaller church, sosyal neighborhood, a 10-15 minute drive away.   hallelujah.   no pre-mass RH=abortion video.   no talk of RH=abortion in the sermon which took 10 minutes or so.   on the story of joseph agonizing over what to do when he found out that the virgin mary was pregnant with a child not his, until he was visited in a dream by an angel who told him that the child had been conceived through the holy spirit and to call him jesus.   the sermon likened joseph’s travails to what we all go through in life, both dark times and good times, and the choices we all have to make, na naikonekt rin niya sa poverty and ofws.   good job.

i can only imagine how the st.francis priest used joseph’s story to again push the RH=abortion line lie.   i’m glad i wasn’t there to hear it.   thank god for christ the king!