new year wish 2011
clinton’s campaign strategist carville was right, “it’s the economy, stupid” that won clinton the presidency in 1992, trumping bush senior’s foreign policy high from the “successful” gulf war.
here at home it would seem that the president and his men know it too, that it’s the economy that truly and urgently needs working on.
“We are conscious of the fact that we are in a debt hole. We can only begin to climb out if we strictly implement austerity measures and cut down on unnecessary spending,” said Malacañang aide Paquito Ochoa.
but is there a plan? asks business world‘s amelia h.c. ylagan:
The national budget in 1986 was P250 billion and 70% of that went to servicing the US$26-billion debt that Cory’s predecessor, Ferdinand Marcos, grew from the $465-million 1965 level, in his 20-year reign. The 50 million Filipinos (in Cory’s time) had to live on the remaining 30% of budget. And then there were the many military coups d’état from the misguided military who wanted to take advantage of the weakness of the country at that time. Cory could not have worked a miracle in six years, many now allow in judgment of her. Some may also say that in comparison, her successor, President Fidel Ramos, probably benefitted from the six-year cycle of painful adjustment and realignment before him, and he successfully augmented what would have been economic deficits with significant one-time proceeds of the privatization of some big government-owned and -controlled corporations.
Survival and growth might be more difficult in Noynoy’s presidency. There are 92.2 million Filipinos (84% more than 1986 population), owing about P47,000 per head for about P4.3-trillion debt (US$ 95 billion approx.) The Asian Development Bank (ADB) warns of extreme debt stress as the country holds the highest debt-to-GDP ratio at 56.5%, the highest among Asian countries. This key measure shows how a country can manage its obligations from its annual economic output, with a declining ratio viewed favorable as this means the country would allot a smaller amount to pay off its debt. But based on the ADB’s projections, the Philippines’ debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio may rise by 15% by 2015 in a scenario of higher primary deficit to GDP; by 5.1% amid lower nominal GDP growth rate; by 3% on higher nominal interest rates on public debt; and by 12.7% on a combination of the three negative scenarios.
So, is there a plan to address these scenarios of where we, as a country might be going, how we are going to get there, and when we will get there.
grabe, we are deeply in debt to the tune of Php 4.3 trillion, that’s $ 95 billion. ylagan rightly asks if there’s a plan, what’s the plan, considering that the president vetoed the debt cap provision inserted by senator joker arroyo in the P1.645-trillion 2011 national budget, which would have limited government’s borrowing to 55 % of gross domestic product.
Malacanang has defended President Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III’s decision to veto the debt cap in the 2011 General Appropriations Act.
so that’s the plan? since creditors are willing to lend, we will just borrow and borrow, ganoon, bahala na si batman. but, as senator joker points out:
The US is, in many ways, our model. There is a debt ceiling in the US President’s power to borrow money, but the US Congress would invariably increase the ceiling whenever it is justified by necessity,” he said.
“For the cause of fiscal prudence and transparency, why can’t we adopt the same?” he asked.x
why not indeed? i wonder if it has anything to do with what former senator orly mercado said, when he was the new president erap’s secretary of national defense, that when you’re in the driver’s seat na pala, the view, the perspective, changes and campaign promises prove unrealistic. or something to that effect.
could it be the same for president aquino? but who exactly is holding him hostage to the old rotten system, making real CHANGE impossible? what exactly are these forces beyond his control? i wish he’d tell us so we can all grow up and face the unpleasant consequences of our past actions and/or inactions.
and then, again, the president could just be in over his head? sana hindi. and that’s my happy new year wish for us all ;))