iskul bukol

leah navarro and manolo quezon of the black and white movement ask the same question: if, as general avelino razon alleges, the armed force that fetched jun lozada from the airport were only out to protect him in response to his request for protection, why then did these armed men disappear the moment jun lozada’s thursday presscon was over? meaning, i suppose, that it wasn’t as if lozada no longer needed protection.

the confusion i suspect stems from the fact that before lozada left for hongkong, he HAD been asking palace functionaries for protection. he wanted the palace to wield its magic wand and make the senate’s warrant of arrest go away. at that point, he did not want to testify because testifying meant he would be under oath, he would have to tell the truth, expose the bukol, talk of moderating greed.

but the palace functionaries could find no legal remedy for lozada’s plight. gma can’t claim executive privilege as with neri because she and lozada never talked. FG is not covered by executive privilege. which meant there was no way of avoiding the senate inquiry. well, except by leaving the country. it worked for jocjoc bolante and the fertilizer scam, it might work for jun lozada and the nbn-zte mess.

fortunately for us all, lozada did not want to fly too far away, and in a few days he wanted to come home (what a rare bird), and the palace didn’t try to stop him. what did mike defensor say? : umuwi ka na nga, at pag-usapan natin kung anong sasabihin mo. or something to that effect. the catch was, lozada was not the same person who left who absolutely did not want to testify. the lozada who came home, i daresay, was leaning more and more towards doing the right thing, the honourable thing, no more lying, no more hiding, death threats or no death threats.

perhaps the palace did not know this; they assumed that lozada would still want protection. except that parang no one was in charge, there was no strategy beyond the pick-up at the airport. worse, lozada only wanted to go home, be with his wife and family. so he was willing to sign any document, yes he asked for protection, no he won’t implicate the first gentleman, anything, to get home, or to la salle greenhills, as safe a place as any, where priests and nuns waited with his family.

lozada says it was only after he had been reunited with his wife and kids, and the nuns and priests had prayed over him, and he had talked it over with his family, that he decided to take the plunge, do the right thing, the honourable thing. only then did he agree to face the press. why his “protectors” stayed around, well, i suppose the palace wanted to know what was going on, the more quickly to come up with a spin or two. but when the presscon was over, there was no reason to stay. lozada no longer wanted protection from the senate, he was on the way to senate.

jun lozada corroborates joey de v. story & the madriaga file

missed the brave wee-hours-of-the-morning presscon of rodolfo “jun” lozada on the nbn-zte deal but caught snippets of anc’s replay later and wow! what a testimony to GREED that corroborates joey de venecia’s story (good for him) and also the madriaga file, posted by ellen tordesillas early this week:

The Madriaga file on broadband deal

THE following document landed in my mailbox. It’s supposed to have been written by a certain Dante Madriaga. (A check with UP alumni activities show a Dante Madriaga as earning a BSE from UP in 1966.). For what’s it worth, here it is.

***

I am an electronic/electrical engineer by profession. I attended the University of the Philippines and Texas A&M University. I have been in the communications industry for over 30 years.

I was a part owner of a company in the LISP in Cabuyao, Laguna that exported microwave radio transmitters. I was involved in the original design of the ARESCOM proposal using a concept similar to what Joey de Venecia thought about. I have been involved in the preparation and design of the NBN ZTE proposal since the beginning.

I have been a technical consultant for the project involved not only in the design but as a liaison to NEDA, DOTC/TELOF/CICT. I was involved in all discussions regarding the project including the names of other people involved, margins and actual pricing details.

ZTE International signed an MOU with the government on March 14 on a National Broadband Network project.

The following is my account of the project from the start to the time when the negotiations were turned over to the finance group. With the exception of the China trips I was present in all the meetings. There may be some omissions and oversights, some of it done on purpose.

May 2006: The project was brought to ZTE on May 5 by a person named Stephen Lai, who was originally with Arescom and is a personal friend oft the Arescom president Cris Ching. ZTE approached Chairman Abalos whom they knew to help on the political side.

Chairman Abalos enlisted the help of Ruben Reyes a golfing buddy to come up with a team to expedite matters. Ruben Reyes contacted General Quirino de la Torre and Leo San Miguel. I was approached by Leo San Miguel whom I had known before to work on the project. I provided Leo inputs on the Arescom proposal which ZTE used as a basis to start their design.

June 2006: Ruben Reyes, Leo San Miguel, General De la Torre, Stephen Lai, Yu Yong, Fan Yang met on June 16 at the Makati Shangri-La in a private environment to discuss the NBN project. They were later joined by Chairman Abalos who left first. We start the design work but are hindered by cost constrains. There is no possible way to achieve the $130M Arescom budget with the commissions that were needed. They decide to increase it to $190M and later added some more components to make it $262M.

Same group meets on June 18 with the addition of Secretary Mike Defensor and Abalos chief of staff Paz and without Stephen Lai meet in Wack-Wack to discuss details on the commissions.

July 2006: We make initial presentations to CICT and Telof at the CICT office. Chairman Sales was present together with then Telof Asec Frank Perez, the son of Sec Nani Perez, Commissioner Lorenzo Formoso, ZTE personnel and the DOTC/CICT technical staff.

Chairman Sales initial comment was that the NBN project was best left up to private but promised to review the proposal and make recommendations.

We made similar presentations to the NEDA infrastructure group, present was the ZTE group including Fan Yang and the accounting personnel of ZTE.

NEDA writes a letter to us citing objections to the initial design.

PGMA signs an MOU on July 12 designating Sec Favila to negotiate with ZTE on the government’s behalf. Group meets on July 25 in Wack-Wack to solve the problems.

August 2006: Then DOTC Asec Perez makes a presentation and objects to the cost and the design. I work with the NEDA group to smooth out their objections.

Asec Perez who openly discredits the project is promptly replaced by Commissioner Formoso who vowed to help with the implementation. Asec Formoso is a better choice than Asec Perez because he is an engineer and a lawyer and can defend the project well.

Chairman Sales reviews the project but is still not convinced; through back door channels he changes his tune at a later date.

Group on August 11 goes to China and demands an advance payment upon orders from the boss ostensibly to facilitate the approval and for PR. Chairman Abalos leaves first over the weekend. They get it after mentioning the name of the FG. Ruben Reyes is designated as the recipient.

Group comes back from China on August 15 and meets again with Chairman Abalos to tell of their success. US$1M was doled out, Ruben Reyes was designated as the recipient.

September 2006: Group meets regularly at Wack-Wack every weekend at night to discuss ways to facilitate the approval of the project.

NEDA status is ok but all of a sudden meets a sudden resistance from Director General Neri. Group meets at Wack-Wack on September 22 to address the problem.

We meet Sec Mendoza at his officeand make representations. Secretary does not hear the full presentation but endorses us to the then head of legal Atty. Noel Cruz.

DOTC legal returns the endorsement of the NBN project to the CICT.

Design is changed again trying to fit the commitments. ZTE and group argue on the profit margins, they finally decide on September 28 that the increasing the project amount to $270M will give them a margin of $70M each.

October 2006: The name Joey de Venecia suddenly comes into play and makes the group worried. He wants the same project but on a BOT scheme and is adamant about it, he had the idea long before Arescom and ZTE conceptualized it; in fact the whole idea the Arescom proposalcame from Joey.

Leo San Miguel is tasked to fix the problem since he personally knows Joey. The negotiations do not progress because of Joey’s distrust for the group. Group meets at Wack-Wack on October 11 and decides to ask the FG for help on how to handle Joey.

Ruben Reyes, Chairman Abalos and General De La Torre fly to China on October 14 and discuss the problem with the ZTE officials about Joey. ZTE is alarmed but is reassured that everything will be taken care of with the intervention of the FG.

November 2006: Group is notified on November 12 that the President does not want to borrow and instead wants a BOT scheme similar to the AHI proposal.

Group decides to compete with Joey and brings an alternate solution by bringing out a competing BOT offer.

Joey is unfazed since he holds all the cards at NEDA with his father’s help and stonewalls the group’s effort. Group meets almost daily to discuss ways to resolve the issues. ZTE is furious at group for not controlling the situation.

Group decides that the only way that Secretary Neri would not object is to offer him acommission of US$4M at that time the exchange rate of 50-1. Chairman Abalos is designated to fix the problem.

December 2006: Group submits a proposal to Chairman Sales changing strategy and hoping to revive the NBN proposal to a BOT similar to Joey’s proposal.

In a meeting in Wack-Wack in December 5, FG and Abalos try to convince Joey to just partner with them and quit his objection. In the meeting at Wack Wack FG threatens Joey by telling him to back off and stay out of the project.

ZTE tries to help out in the conflict and even designs the AHI network thereby exposing their pricing to Joey’s group.

Group goes to China on December 27 with Joey to fix the problem, they meet with ZTE officials at ZTE HQ but the negotiation fails. It was during these negotiations that Joey brought up the idea of ZTE partnering with Hwawei, another Chinese supplier. The suggestion is promptly dismissed by ZTE and negotiations break down. Group demands an advance and promptly got it from ZTE before the arrival of Joey De Venecia. Ruben Reyes is again designated as the recipient. US$5M was doled out.

January 2007: Group abandons the BOT proposal and decides to meet Joey De Venecia’s AHI group head-on with their own BOT proposal. Asec Formoso organizes a defense by creating a Technical Working Group (TWG) to evaluate the proposals of ZTE, AHI and Arescom.

It comes as no surprise that the TWG comes up with a report tilted in favor of ZTE because all of the members are either TELOF or DOTC personnel, they do not want the offer of AHI since it will be implemented by the private AHI group.

Group plots strategy and enlists Secretary Mendoza since Chairman Sales is a technocrat and Secretary Mendoza is a long-time ally. Group decides to move Telof back to DOTC citing the reason that CICT is a commission and cannot implement a project of this magnitude. In the end Secretary Sales signs the endorsement of the project anyway.

February 2007: TWG finishes the evaluation and hands it to the Technical Working Committee (TWC) who promptly endorses it to Secretary Mendoza.

ZTE is endorsed to NEDA by both Mendoza and Sales.

Joey is not impressed and files a complaint about the ZTE proposal to whoever would listen citing the disadvantages to the government. The project at NEDA is delayed and the much needed NEDA approval is stalled. Secretary Neri does not seem to be favoring the NBN and appears to be part of the problem because he likes the AHI proposal rather than the NBN which requires a government guarantee.

March 2007: On March 8, approval of GMA is secured in order to meet the deadline for final NEDA approval by the executive.

Group meets on March 12 in Wack Wack with Yu Yong and Fan Yang. They finally expand the proposed coverage to increase the amount to $329M.

Joey is furious when the NBN proposal is approved and threatens to expose all the dealings that stopped his much superior proposal. Group does not appear to be worried and thinks it is just sour graping. Upon approval by the NEDA, group meets on March 28 in Wack Wack with ZTE and demands another cash advance which they got. Ruben Reyes is the designated recipient again. US$10M is again doled out.

April 2006: Group meets again in Makati Shangri-La on April 4 with Yu Yong and Fan Yang of ZTE to discuss ways of getting upfront money to finance partly the elections and some personal needs. Ruben Reyes is again designated as the recipient. US$ 30M is again doled out.

Yu Yong agrees but on the condition that PGMA be present at the signing. PGMA promptly goes to China to witness the signing.

FG cannot participate since he is hospitalized and Abalos is busy with the elections. Ruben Reyes takes over all of the negotiations and transfer of funds.

Upon arrival from China on April 27, Secretary Mendoza and Secretary Favila visit the FG and inform him of the good news.

May 2007: Loan negotiation starts.”

bukingan na!

ronnie zamora expressed my sentiments exactly: a pox on both their houses! while it was a rare spectacle having the speaker rant and rave on nationwide tv against the arroyos – mother, father, and sons, and oh yes, jose pidal kuno – who had clearly engineered his ouster, it was just as dismaying, though not surprising, to hear him practically admit that he had been covering up for gma all through,and since, the garci-tapes scandal of 2004.

the question now is, will jdv continue with the exposes a la son joey? that would be great, for a change, except he would be digging his own grave. and what about manay gina who promises, too, to tell more in the coming days? sey niya, araw-araw silang magkasama ni gma noong 2004. hell hath no fury like a woman (whose husband has been) scorned?  you go, girl!

decoupling a dream, IMF hits panic button

there’s a lot of hoping and praying going around that asia has truly decoupled, i.e. weaned itself, from the u.s. economy. ibig sabihin kasi, it would be possible for the rest of the global economy to roll on despite the u.s. recession (ok, slowdown, maybe). china and india, the new big trading partners of the world, could take up the slack, provide what the humungous u.s. consumer market used to provide but can provide no more because its credit has run out (sub-prime pala in more ways than one).

it is true that we have decoupled somewhat from the u.s. economy, but just a little. cielito habito writes:

If we count China and Hong Kong as one country (even though the trade statistics still separate the two), the US has already been dislodged as our largest export market, whose 17-percent share of our exports is now just second to China-Hong Kong’s 23 percent. Contrast this to only 10 years ago, when the US took more than one-third (35 percent), while China-Hong Kong took less than one-twentieth (5 percent). Our vulnerability to a US recession via an export slowdown is therefore far less than what it would have been 10 years ago.

“But let’s look more deeply into the details, particularly the destinations of our top exports. Electronic products, which account for two-thirds of all our export earnings, are now well distributed among our top four buyers for these products, with the US taking only 14 percent. China-Hong Kong takes 23 percent, Japan takes 15 percent, Western Europe takes 14 percent, and even Singapore and Malaysia take sizable shares of about 8 percent each. On the other hand, the US takes up the bulk (79 percent) of our garments exports, our second (but a far second) largest export. Mineral exports to the US hardly matter, with most going to our neighbors. Woodcraft and furniture, another top export earner, mostly go to Japan, with only 20 percent going to the US.”

problem is, all these markets to which we export goods – japan, western europe, china, singapore, malaysia – also have sizeable exports to the u.s. chances are, if they lose that market, they’re going to cut back on our products, too. and really, our exports have been down since the peso started rising (falling), so we have to look elsewhere for salvation.

such as interest rate cuts maybe, like the federal reserve has done to encourage entrepreneurs and consumers to keep on borrowing (don’t stop investing, don’t stop spending). but like the bank of england, our bangko sentral is wary of inflation, even if the IMF mismo advises “monetary easing,” if we are to withstand the global repercussions of the credit crisis.

in fact, the IMF is hitting the panic button:

The intensifying credit crunch is so severe that lower interest rates alone will not be enough “to get out of the turmoil we are in”, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned at the weekend.

“In a dramatic volte face for an international body that as recently as the autumn called for “continued fiscal consolidation” in the US, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the new IMF head, gave a green light for the proposed US fiscal stimulus package and called for other countries to follow suit. “I don’t think we would get rid of the crisis with just monetary tools,” he said, adding “a new fiscal policy is probably today an accurate way to answer the crisis.”

on the ball naman si albay governor joey salceda, top economic adviser ni gma, who brooks no arguments: a storm is coming, thus this Php75 billion stimulus package:

• A P16-billion expansion in income tax deductions (to benefit middle-class working families).

• An P8-billion rebate to households consuming less than 200 kilowatt hours of electricity a month.

• A P51-billion increase in government spending this year (P15 billion for increasing agriculture production, P16 billion for infrastructure, P12 billion for education, P4 billion to increase PhilHealth memberships to 5 million, and P4 billion for mass housing).

“We must implement the economic equivalent of a preemptive evacuation. Domestic growth is our first line of defense against the incoming virus of global credit and corporate earnings recession. Not because it is fashionable, but because there are fundamental arguments for some kind of recession-proofing for the Philippine economy to preserve the gains of 27 uninterrupted quarters of GDP expansion,” Salceda said in an interview.

problem is, salceda’s package is not too stimulating. sana rebates across the board for all taxpayers. and why not suspend VAT? masyadong malaking revenues ang mawawala sa gobyerno? so why not suspend debt payments? this is a good time as any for a moratorium, if the IMF really wants to help.