Category: people power

spinning egypt

the spin is in.   the economic losses are being blamed on the youth protests rather than on the tyrant’s intransigence.  and the opposition is now engaged daw in negotiations with mubarak’s vp.   are the youth protesters represented in these talks?   some say yes, some say no.   but the impression being created is that there’s a consensus, mubarak stays to shepherd the transition and save egypt.   so it’s time for the protesters to go home, be patient, change is in the offing.   but it would seem that the protesters are digging in, too.   and smartly so.  they are not the problem, mubarak is.   to pack up and leave liberation square would be to play right back into the tyrant’s hands.

mubarak’s good friday?

so mubarak has dug in.   insists that he is the legitimate ruler until september elections.   his supporters agree, afraid that if he goes life will get even more chaotic, not only for pro-mubarak egyptians, but for israel and america, because what if the muslim brotherhood takes over.

but that wasn’t very smart, siccing his armed goons on the protesting crowds, trying to disperse them?   incredibly the people are holding on and promise even bigger crowds today.   they’d rather have chaos without mubarak than with.  oo nga naman, kahit paano, it would be a step forward just getting rid of this aged tyrant.

not very smart either, blaming the uprising on foreign journalists and trying to muzzle foreign media, i suppose in anticipation of the march to the palace.   maybe they’ll block all roads to the palace?   or maybe the military forces might finally be forced to reveal whoseside they’re on, and whether it’s on the side of the people or of mubarak, they don’t want the world to see?   mas mahirap nga namang i-spin after, not just for mubarak but also for obama.

huge crowd packing liberation square right now.   the area reportedly being cordoned off by soldiers.   hopefully only to keep out pro-mubarak goons.   otherwise, time for obama to walk the talk, to put it mildly.

egypt / edsa

in the beginning it seemed like egypt was doing an edsa.   and then it became clear that, where we had cory-in-waiting to replace marcos, the anti-mubarak forces have no leader to replace the dictator with, and are/were depending on, expecting, the united states, perceived to be the power behind mubarak, to take care of removing him and installing a transition government until elections can be held.   which brings home the effect of 30 long years of martial law.   suwerte pa rin tayo, 14 years lang, not long enough for censorship and suppression to dumb down the pre-martial law generation.

but there are some similarities.   like reagan in 1986, obama seems to need convincing that it’s time for america’s friend to cut, and cut cleanly.   the fear here in 1986 was that the communists might take over a weak new leader, and there go the U.S. bases.   the fear now in egypt is that the the muslim brotherhood might take over a weak new leader, and there goes israel beloved.

also, an imminent economic collapse, though not because of a deliberate boycott of government and crony businesses but just because everything has shut down and millions, maybe billions, are being lost everyday, must find mubarak, having lost all credibility with what seems a majority of egyptian people, under extreme pressure to ship out.   it would seem too that the hope of european leaders is for america to fly him out a la marcos, let him fall with some dignity rather than be put to trial a la saddam hussein, as some egyptian protestors wish.

so far i haven’t heard any news of a split military, which greatly helped our people power in ’86.   but who knows what’s going on behind the scenes.

too bad that nobel laureate elbaradai is an expat pala and therefore not really wellknown or well-loved in egypt.   he’s the perfect leader for the transition, i would think, and the people of egypt could do worse than to rally behind him.   a united opposition can bring down mubarak quite quickly, and give obama no choice but to support a transition government and start over re israel and the middle east.

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Revolution
Is Mubarak’s time up?
Obama’s Mideast Moment of Truth
Will Egypt mobilize or radicalize Arab youth?
Democracy’s Drawback
Egypt without Mubaraks: Sampson Option or New Political Order?

“Ninoy Aquino & the Rise of People Power”

at last, a good, no, a great, documentary film on ninoy aquino.   why am i not surprised that it’s not home-made, no, it takes a tom coffman to tell us the story of ninoy.   but thanks na rin to abs-cbn channel 2 for airing it this late sunday night, and thanks to my lucky stars that i happened to surf and switch just as it was beginning.   sana i-replay pag primetime.   sana isalin sa filipino.