Category: china

Kaabang-abang ang next episodes… kuwentong Tsina at kuwentong kokeyn

KUWENTONG TSINA

May 7 Tuesday, China released an audio recording of a Jan 2024 phone conversation between some Chinese official and Vice Admiral Alberto Carlos (AFP Western Command) where Carlos is supposed to have agreed on a new way of managing tensions over Ayungin Shoal.  Also, China was supposedly assured that Defense Sec Gibo Teodoro, National Security Adviser Eduardo Año, and AFP Chief of Staff Gen. Romeo Brawner “all concurred with the plan”.

Say pa ng China, they released the video not to embarrass the Philippines but to prove that they were not lying about a recent agreement. One that China alleges was unilaterally abandoned by the Philippines “for no good reason.” 

May 8 Wednesday, Defense Sec. Gibo Teodoro response was to cast doubt on the recording, citing the Chinese government’s “propensity for misinformation.” And surprise surprise, Vice Admiral Carlos has gone on “personal leave” and cannot be reached for confirmation. And we are all supposed to just be upset, like Sec Gibo, that the Chinese have apparently violated our Anti-Wire Tapping Law?

It would be good to know if there was such a conversation or not.  If there was not, why was Vice Admiral Carlos allowed (made?) to go on leave instead of being ordered to tell the truth and assisted in disputing the authenticity of the audio recording?  Is it possible that there was such a conversation and Gibo et al knew about it but are resolved to deny it because at the time they were hedging their bets in case the US-Japan-Ph alliance didn’t pull through?  Could this be our version of gray tactics?  Sino ba talaga ang na-embarrass?  Meron bang na-embarrass?  All is fair in love and war? Kaabang-abang.

KUWENTONG KOKEYN

Circa 2012 pa ang dokumentong nakahain — authentic nga ba, tulad ng say ni Sen. Bato?  Mapapa-appear kaya niya sa senate hearing si dating executive secretary Paquito Ochoa na sinasabing siyang nagpahinto ng napipintong PDEA investigation of BBM noong 2012 dahil law partners sila ni Liza Marcos once upon a time? Meron bang basis ang proposed investigation other than info from the two maids whom Maricel Soriano dismissed for theft in 2011?

Pero sabihin pa natin, for the sake of argument, na totoo lahat iyon 12 years ago. What makes DDS vloggers think that it is reasonable to conclude without evidence that BBM is presently a drug addict and therefore not competent to run government?  Doesn’t it remind of Duterte times when he seemed really slow and stumbling and ill or on fentanyl, but when we asked to be assured about his health and whether he was still up to the job, we were ignored? Kesyo confidential daw ang medical records ng presidente, or something like that? Nothing has changed, guys. Tiis muna. Hysterics don’t work.

Pero kaabang-abang pa rin kung totoong ire-reveal na ng hitad na vlogger ang source(s?) niya of leaked documents and phone conversations. Wire-tapping, anyone?

DDS vloggers on oust-BBM mode

Duterte Diehard Supporters have been on oust-BBM mode for a while now. As far as I can tell, their grievances boil down to three issues:  BBM’s chacha project, the economic crunch, and BBM’s pivot away from China.

Of the three, I agree only with the chacha assessment. Malamang nga that the long-term goal is political change, from bicam to uni-parliamentary system, no VP needed, in aid of the Marcos dynasty reigning forever and ever. #NO to chacha indeed.

The economic crunch, however, is something else, and not one that can be credibly thrown at BBM alone. Last year pa lang, there was already this Reddit community saying that the “Living crisis is not just BBM’s fault,” reminding that Duterte was an epic fail, too.

mattventurer: People only blame duterte for red-tagging and human rights violations, pero not many have mentioned that Duterte failed to prepare our country for the future.

Walang ginawa si Duterte to improve agriculture sector. Walang ginawa si Duterte to improve education sector. Walang ginawa si Duterte to improve industries and manufacturing. Walang ginawa si Duterte to protect the environment. He failed his drug war! He failed to end contractualization. Philippines still flooded by corruption. https://www.reddit.com/r/Philippines/comments/

To be fair, I would edit that to “Walang nagawâ”…. he may have tried, or his people surely tried, to make a difference, but like the presidents before him, found the corrupt System practically impregnable to Change.  No quick fixes here.  Even before the pandemic.

Read also Boo Chanco’s “Energy policy failure.”

By the time Duterte came into power, new power plants were urgently needed to provide the baseload for the power grid. It was obvious only coal and natural gas can provide the dependable output to feed our growing demand for electricity. But on Oct. 27, 2020, Alfonso Cusi, Duterte’s energy secretary, declared a moratorium on the construction of coal power plants.

Most likely, the technocrats at DOE convinced Cusi that a coal moratorium will endear him to the noisy climate change people. Embracing renewable energy, or RE, is trendy.

… So, no new power plants went on line during Duterte’s time in office. We are now harvesting the bitter fruits of that incompetence in policy formulation. https://www.philstar.com/business/2024/04/24/2349921/energy-policy-failure

As for the allegation that it’s Atty. Liza the Fierce Lady and not PBBM who’s running government, parang eksaherado naman. I don’t doubt that she has some influence on her husband’s thinking, especially on legal matters, but not to the point of BBM being under-the-saya — the prez knows what he’s doing, whether we like it or don’t.  And really, I think she’s an improvement on Imelda whose “hole in the sky” and “true good beautiful” rhetoric drove me nuts. I don’t mind the fierce one’s candor, drawing the line at “bangag” and without whitewashing the “badshot”.

Which brings us to the China issue. Galit na galit ang mga DDS kay BBM for rescinding that “status quo” agreement with China and pivoting to the U.S. and Japan for help in stopping the bully from aggressively encroaching on our territorial waters and resources. They warn of war,  and insist on Duterte-like diplomacy as the only way to deal with China.  But that only means more of the same gray, if not grayer, tactics to drive us away from our own waters for good.

Read Rafael Alunan III‘s “Countering China’s modus operandi”.

ALUNAN.  In 1988, then Foreign Affairs Secretary Raul Manglapus sent me to Washington, D.C., to attend a conference on technology. I was impressed by the Chinese delegation. It boasted that China had a master plan to become a superpower in 50 years through technology and that it was underway. Hundreds of thousands of Chinese were sent yearly to the US and Europe for post-graduate studies to transform their country. So far, so good.

Superpowerdom was China’s goal; technology would be the means. Sun Tzu emphasized the importance of strategy and deception in warfare. China’s approach to exerting influence and gaining control of other countries often involves a combination of economic, political and cultural means, rather than overt military action. Through the years, the US was subjected to unrestricted warfare in the gray zone to weaken it from within and without.

… For a time, China lured us to its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), offering opportunities for economic cooperation and integration principally to buy influence and capitalize on potential debt traps. Fortunately, we saw through it and decided to drop out of the BRI last year. The pullout came amid tensions in the West Philippines Sea and China’s delaying tactics to conclude the long-delayed Code of Conduct in the South China Sea.

Freeing ourselves from China’s strategic influence and control requires a multifaceted approach, including but not limited to 1) strengthening institutional integrity, 2) reinforcing legal safeguards, 3) diversifying infrastructure partnerships, 4) promoting civil society engagement, 5) enhancing cybersecurity measures, 6) fortifying intelligence capabilities, 7) upscaling civic education and awareness, and 8) forging strong international partnerships.

The imperative here is to sanitize our ranks now with no time to lose, observe operational security (opsec) to keep secret what is secret, and engage those lurking in the shadows who are out to harm us with extraordinary measures before it’s too late. https://www.manilatimes.net/2024/04/23/opinion/columns/countering-chinas-modus-operandi/1942790

And this from Jose Ma. Montelibano, “China defies Deng Xiaoping warning”

“If one day China should change her color and turn into a superpower, if she too should play the tyrant in the world, and everywhere subject others to her bullying, aggression and exploitation, the people of the world should identify her … social-imperialism, expose it, oppose it and work together with the Chinese people to overthrow it.” ~ Deng Xiaoping speech at the United Nations, April 10, 1974

MONTELIBANO. Deng Xiaoping was a political survivor, a visionary, a street-wise leader, and obviously was profound. He could not have led China out of the dark ages into the irreversible journey towards superpower status by simple brute force (he used that, too). He had power and he knew how to wield it, but he had shrewdness, precision, and wisdom, too. He knew China would be a superpower, and he tried to warn those who would succeed him, and the world at large, that China could get drunk with power.

Instead of internal propaganda that would have restrained China’s rapid transition from vassal to world leader, Deng simply pushed the transition even faster. But he took the stage in the United Nations, as if to allay fears that China would one day go haywire, and delivered a prophecy hidden … in a warning, “If one day China should … play the tyrant … the people of the world should identify her social-imperialism, expose it, oppose it and work together with the Chinese people to overthrow it.”  https://opinion.inquirer.net/73236/china-defies-deng-xiaoping-warning

The National Interest

#AtinAngAyungin #AtinAngRecto

On the one hand, I’m glad former president Duterte and his Davao cohorts are on the side of more than 7 of 10 Filipinos vehemently against the Romualdez-Marcos chacha train(wreck).  On the other, I’m aghast that they’re so against PBBM rescinding Duterte’s “status quo” agreement  with China, the regional bully that some 7 of 10 Filipinos do not trust, and rightfully so, for obstreperously laying claim to and encroaching on our territorial waters and resources.

The threat, “that there will be trouble” if we dare bring construction and repair materials to the grounded BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin, or if we dare dig for oil and gas in Recto, should not stop us from standing up for our rights the way Indonesia and Malaysia did two years ago. Read Jarius Bondoc‘s 2023 column on Recto (Reed) Bank. https://www.philstar.com/opinion/2023/08/30/2292356/drill-recto-gas-oil-now-our-national-survival

Recto is 120 miles from Palawan, well within the Philippines’ 200-mile exclusive economic zone. It’s 650 miles from Hainan, China’s nearest province, thus outside its EEZ. The Hague arbitral court affirmed that in 2016. China can’t claim it by (an) imagined “nine-dash line.”

Recto has proven reserves. In 2013 the US Energy Information Administration estimated it to hold 5.4 billion barrels of oil and 55.1 trillion cubic feet of gas. That’s 63.5 times more oil and 20.5 times more gas than Malampaya, whose lifespan is only 24 or so years.

The Philippine government has long awarded Service Contract-72, covering Recto. Manuel V. Pangilinan’s PXP Energy Corp. and subsidiary Forum Energy Ltd. are ready to drill.

Trespassing Philippine EEZ, Chinese gunboats chased Forum’s vessels away several times. In 2020 the Duterte admin contemplated joint exploration with China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC). Talks failed as CNOOC’s terms violated the Philippine Constitution.

Forum remobilized foreign partners to drill. President Rody Duterte stopped it after receiving a call from Beijing, [Justice Antonio] Carpio recounts. “Twice Forum lost millions of pesos in false starts. Let it proceed now under Philippine Navy protection. National survival depends on it.”

Defy China.

“Let’s do it the way Malaysia and Indonesia did two years ago,” Carpio proposes.

… Beijing also claims Malaysia’s EEZ and Indonesia’s Natuna Isles. Invoking our Hague ruling as support, Malaysia held naval exercises with the US and Australia while drilling oil nearby. Indonesia invited a US aircraft carrier to sail by while drilling in Natuna.

On both occasions Beijing shrieked about owning the entire South China Sea by historical right. Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta ignored it. They’re reaping benefits from their petroleum resources, Carpio notes.

The Philippines can install rigs while holding drills with the US Navy under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. As well, with the British Admiralty because Forum was incorporated in London. A petroleum-sufficient Philippines will ease world demand and prices.

And here’s Fr. Ranhilio Callangan Aquino in a recent Manila Times column: https://www.manilatimes.net/2024/04/17/opinion/columns/gentlemen-and-the-status-quo/1941929

To those who would have us tremble before China’s might, fearful that it may unleash its volley of munitions against us, Justice Antonio Carpio, who has studied both the facts and the law on this case, allays such fears. China will think long and hard before it pushes the button of hostilities because it is cognizant of the Mutual Defense Treaty, which both the Philippines and the United States understand it today. There are those who urge the Philippines to junk the treaty and have long touted the line that the MDT did not cover such scenarios as armed hostilities against the Philippines initiated by the PROC. We now know that to be untrue. The US-Philippines Bilateral Guidelines as well as recent public statements of US President Biden leave no doubt about this.

Lately, China has dealt “the victim card” — naively echoed by some Western news outlets and chat programs. It claims to be the victim of a scheme of encirclement by the US, Australia, Japan and India — quaintly called the Quad. But it will be good to remember that this strategic alliance was born not from some smoky bar where the leaders of these countries had nothing better to do than to conjure alliances to threaten other countries. It arose rather when it had become undeniable that China was relentless in its expansionism, when border tensions with India were approaching boiling point, when it became apparent that its Belt and Road Initiative had allowed it strategic access to points it deemed crucial for its maritime, military and political ambitions. [bold mine]

Notwithstanding the fact that the PROC has thumbed its nose at the arbitral ruling in favor of the Philippines, one will not fail to notice that in every discussion on the South China Sea-West Philippine Sea dispute, the arbitral judgment that was resoundingly in our country’s favor comes up because a binding legal pronouncement as to our rights is always significant and undeniably confers ascendancy on us. It is in this light that I have long advocated that the unresolved disputes over territory should now be the subject of a case before the International Court of Justice or by some other competent international forum.

If this seems like putting undue trust in the workings of international law, my riposte has been constant: It is only the adherence of the community of nations to a rules-based order, the dominance of international law, that the fundamental principle of sovereign equality of States can be a reality in a world of glaring inequalities.

*

Rumblings by Iris Gonzales

Regional bully by Boo Chanco

A sellout of our sovereign rights by Joel Ruiz Butuyan

Can we defend our nation without America? Yes by Ricardo Saludo

Of disadvantageous treaties, sedition, and espionage by Jemy Gatdula

‘Coercive tactics’ by Ana Marie Pamintuan

Sierra Madre stays, Recto Bank ready for drilling

Looking back on my blogposts on China, I found in this one “our china relations, our u.s. alliance” a quote from Rodel Rodis‘s “What did Erap and GMA promise China?” (originally posted 9 years ago, sometime 2014, last edited 14 March 2021):

… on March 17, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei revealed in a press conference in Beijing that two previous Philippine presidents had made an “unequivocal commitment to China ”that the Philippines would tow away the Sierra Madre from the Ayungin Shoal. China demanded that Pres. Aquino “heed the promises” made by his predecessors otherwise, Hong Lei warned, the Philippines risks losing its “credibility”.

Fastforward to August 2023 when, upon China’s “reminder” that the Philippines had promised to tow away the BSP Sierra Madre from Ayungin, the question was, who made such an “unequivocal commitment”? Not Erap, said Sen. Jinggoy Estrada. Not me, said GMA.

Easy to believe them and disbelieve China that is known to make false claims especially about Philippine territory.  Jarius Bondoc suggests we move on, start drilling for gas and oil sa Recto Bank, now na, before Malampaya dries up.

Drill Recto gas, oil now for our national survival
Jarius Bondoc

Pointless to speculate which of two pro-China presidents promised to remove BRP Sierra Madre from Ayungin Shoal. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. already rescinded such deal, if it existed at all.

Just drill oil and gas at Recto (Reed) Bank. Do it now, or suffer economic collapse.

Malampaya offshore gas field will dry up by next year; 2027 at the latest. It fuels 40 percent of Luzon’s electricity. With no replacement for Malampaya, Luzon will suffer daylong blackouts.

That’ll be disastrous. Factories, offices, shops, telecoms, trains, schools, hospitals, hotels, restaurants, cinemas, churches will close. No work or classes from home either. Foreign investors will leave. Jobs will vanish. Urbanites will flee to provinces for scarce food. Linked to Luzon, even Visayas’ power grid will be disrupted.

Recto has proven reserves. In 2013 the US Energy Information Administration estimated it to hold 5.4 billion barrels of oil and 55.1 trillion cubic feet of gas. That’s 63.5 times more oil and 20.5 times more gas than Malampaya, whose lifespan is only 24 or so years.

“We’ve long known that,” says Benny Gan, retired petroleum geologist of the Department of Energy’s precursor, Office of Energy Affairs. In the 70’s OEA explored Recto’s Sampaguita field, only 250 feet deep. “It’s the main study in a roomful of reports, photos and videos.”

Recto is 120 miles from Palawan, well within the Philippines’ 200-mile exclusive economic zone. It’s 650 miles from Hainan, China’s nearest province, thus outside its EEZ. The Hague arbitral court affirmed that in 2016. China can’t claim it by imagined “nine-dash line.”

Although China snubbed the hearings, it’s bound by The Hague ruling under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Its state-owned China National Offshore Oil Corp. has no right to drill there.

CNOOC cannot subcontract to private exploration firms, retired Supreme Court justice Antonio Carpio says. Shell, Occidental, Exxon, among others, are bound by international law, so will shun CNOOC.

The Philippine government has long awarded Service Contract-72, covering Recto. Manuel V. Pangilinan’s PXP Energy Corp. and subsidiary Forum Energy Ltd. are ready to drill.

Trespassing Philippine EEZ, Chinese gunboats chased Forum’s vessels away several times. In 2020 the Duterte admin contemplated joint exploration with CNOOC. Talks failed as CNOOC’s terms violated Philippine Constitution.

Forum remobilized foreign partners to drill. President Rody Duterte stopped it after receiving a call from Beijing, Carpio recounts. “Twice Forum lost millions of pesos in false starts. Let it proceed now under Philippine Navy protection. National survival depends on it.”

Beijing anticipates drilling resumption. Its naval and coast guard ships, reinforced by maritime militia trawlers, are massing up at Del Pilar (Iroquois) Reef at Recto’s westside. Same at Escoda (Sabina) Shoal eastside. It wants to drive away the beached BRP Sierra Madre from Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal inside Recto.

Defy China. “Let’s do it the way Malaysia and Indonesia did two years ago,” Carpio proposes.

Beijing also claims Malaysia’s EEZ and Indonesia’s Natuna Isles. Invoking our Hague ruling as support, Malaysia held naval exercises with the US and Australia while drilling oil nearby. Indonesia invited a US aircraft carrier to sail by while drilling in Natuna.

On both occasions Beijing shrieked about owning the entire South China Sea by historical right. Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta ignored it. They’re reaping benefits from their petroleum resources, Carpio notes.

The Philippines can install rigs while holding drills with the US Navy under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. As well, with the British Admiralty because Forum was incorporated in London. A petroleum-sufficient Philippines will ease world demand and prices.

Beijing will avoid military confrontation, Carpio calculates. An attack on Filipino government vessels escorting Forum drillers will trigger the Phl-US Mutual Defense Treaty. China Communist Party’s National Congress and Politburo have decided to take control of SCS by intimidation, not war.

“Oil and gas from Recto will save our economy,” Carpio says. “Let Beijing howl. We’ll have our fuel. What better way to assert our EEZ sovereign rights!”

Sampaguita field can pump petroleum via pipeline 150 kilometers northeast to Malampaya. The latter can in turn pump to Batangas in mainland Luzon via its existing 504-kilometer pipeline.

“If not for us circling Malampaya, China would have annexed it long ago,” a ranking PN officer confides. In 2020 a Chinese warship aimed weapons at a PN patrol there. “We’re ready to defend Recto too,” another admiral assures.

Upon operationalizing Sampaguita, other sovereignty measures can follow:

• Erect an Ayungin lighthouse to replace disintegrating Sierra Madre. The 2002 ASEAN-China Declaration of Conduct among SCS disputants bars military buildup. A civilian lighthouse is allowable, says geopolitics expert Renato de Castro, PhD.

• Sue China for damages at The Hague or the International Tribunal for Law of the Sea. The Philippines and Forum can compute opportunities lost from China’s menacing since 2007, says international maritime lawyer Jay Batongbacal, PhD.

• Exact recompense for China’s fish poaching and destruction of reef resources, like rare metals and new medicines, at Escoda, Del Pilar and Recto. Also, for concreting nearby Panganiban (Mischief) Reef into an island-fortress since 1992.

The late foreign secretary Albert del Rosario had totaled it at $662 million per year. Assisting him, marine scientist Deo Florence Onda, PhD, calculated the wrecked resources at $353,429 per hectare per year, based on the 2012 Studies on Global Ecosystems by Dutch firm Elsevier, world leader in scientific-technical-medical information.