Category: america

g-20, apec, aquino, and the peso

MANILA, Philippines—Six Filipino activists who had planned to take part in alternative meetings that are set to run parallel to the G20 summit in South Korea have been deported from Seoul, their colleagues said on Sunday.

… The activists were put on a flight back to Manila late Saturday after being told by South Korean authorities that they were blacklisted and could not enter the country, the activists said…. One of those deported, Maria Lorena Macabuag of the group Migrant Forum Asia, said they were only attending a peaceful parallel forum and had not broken any law.

Her companions were identified as Josua Mata of the Alliance of Progressive Labor, Joseph Purugganan of Focus on the Global South, musician-poet and Asian Public Intellectual fellow Jess Santiago, Rogelio Soluta of the Kilusang Mayo Uno and Paul Quinto of Ibon Philippines.

… “We were granted visas and it was clear that we were invited by KCTU. It was all disclosed and it was clear that we are not a threat to them,” Purugganan said.

make that 7 activists, the 7th being Bernice Coronacion of the Alliance of Progressive Labor.   hmm.   heard ibon’s sonny africa saying on ANC that only filipino activists have been denied entry.   and so there is wondering whether this is with the collusion of the philippine government, which would explain why the aquino admin is not offended?   but if true, why so?   why would we not want filipino activists represented, having been invited to participate, in the parallel forum organized by the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions?   baka kasi mag-ingay masyado this “noisy minority” that the aquinos think very little of?

and then, again, isn’t it just as possible that this is a kind of backlash vis a vis the aug 23 bloodbath and the vietnam tweets, a kind of curveball from a good friend of hong kong and vietnam?   okay okay it may be a stretch but after reading this…

What is the Philippine interest in this event? At first glance, there is not much to indicate that the Philippines is represented, much less invited. The president of neighboring Indonesia regularly sits at the summit. Korea as the host country exercised its privilege of inviting Singapore, as well as Vietnam which is this year’s head of the ASEAN. With these three ASEAN countries sitting in G20, could it be safely said that Philippine interests are well represented? The presence of at least three ASEAN leaders both have advantages and risks, due to the diverse characteristics of small, free market leader Singapore, socialist Vietnam, and big Indonesia.

… it’s like we’re being snubbed?   and then, again, it could be simply that aquino’s presence would be of no consequence anyway, given the philippines’ reputation of being america’s lackey, no more no less, especially when it comes to the economy?

The G20 leaders will be expected to affirm agreements drafted less than a month ago by their finance chiefs. They promised to avoid a damaging round of competitive currency depreciations. China accuses the United States, however, of already violating the spirit of the pledge by printing excess dollars, which Beijing says contributes to Chinese inflation. Washington accuses Beijing of keeping its currency artificially weak.

[G-20 economies represent about 90 percent of the gross domestic product globally, nearly 80 percent of world trade, and two-thirds of the world’s population. G8 members — Great Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States — plus Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey and the European Union (EU).]

mabuti’t nag-iingay ang brazil:

… Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva blames both China and the US for keeping their currencies artificially low — causing the Brazilian real to rise and making his country’s exports less competitive — and could stir things up.

“We believe the United States and China are creating a currency war,” Silva told reporters Wednesday. “So, I am going to the G-20 to put up a fight.”

He didn’t specify what steps he intends to propose.

so the summit should be interesting, america vs. china, and everyone else vs. america and china?   even more interesting, our very own dr. bernardo m. villegas, who is usually so pro-america and pro-imf-worldbank, is predicting that the peso will depreciate post-G20.

In an economic forum sponsored by Security Bank for its clients last October 22, I had the temerity to make the fearless forecast that the peso-dollar exchange rate at the end of this year will be closer to P45 to 46 than to P40 to 41.

…The bleak outlook for the results of the G-20 in Seoul is in stark contrast with the upbeat mood in 2008 when the G-20 met for the first time to help stabilize the global financial system at the beginning of the Great Recession. Two years ago, there was an admirable cohesiveness among the leaders. Today, there is a “clash of interests and a clash of perceptions” that could result in a stalemate at the summit that would impede progress toward recovery. Mr. Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, is more specific in his warnings. He is afraid that tensions over exchange rates could degenerate into trade protectionism: “That could, as it did in the 1930s, lead to a disastrous collapse in activity around the world.”

… The Filipino overseas workers, the biggest source of foreign exchange for the country (estimated to reach $20 billion in 2010), are getting more sophisticated in their understanding of foreign exchange rate fluctuations, especially with the advice of our leading banks and remittance companies. It is very probable that a good number of them will postpone remitting their dollars to the Philippines in the hope of a peso depreciation late this year or early next year. For this reason, I do not expect the usual larger inflow of dollars for the Christmas holidays. The more important expenditures for the families of these OFWs have to do with education, which usually peak in June of each year. There is, therefore, reason for the OFWs to wait and see how the exchange war will work out and keep their dollars in the meantime.

Furthermore, there is reason to expect that portfolio investments in the Philippine capital market could slow down as many more countries follow the lead of China that raised interest rates for the first time in nearly three years because of concerns about increasing inflationary pressures in the economy. As more countries raise interest rates, they would attract more “hot money” into their respective economies. With inflation at low levels in the Philippines, I do not foresee our Central Bank raising interest rates in the near future. If this scenario of higher interest rates among our trading partners should be fulfilled, I am issuing a word of caution to those who are overly excited about our booming stock market today. Easy come, easy go.

These are my reasons for expecting the peso to depreciate closer to P45 to 46 by the end of this year. At the risk of immodesty, let me remind my readers that at the beginning of 2010, I was ridiculed by my fellow economists (including those working for the former administration) when I forecasted that the GDP would grow at 7 percent. The consensus forecast then was between 3 to 5 percent. As everyone knows, GDP grew by 7.9 percent in the first semester and is mostly likely to grow at 7 percent for the whole year. I rest my case.

samantala right after the G-20 summit in south korea on nov 11-12, there’s the APEC summit in japan nov 13-14 that aquino is attending (minus ms.lang of course) along with many of the G-20 leaders, including obama.

[APEC member economies are Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Peru, the Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, the United States and Vietnam. They account for 40.5 percent 1 of the world’s population, 54.2 percent of world GDP and 43.7 percent of world trade.]

aquino daw is set to propose that a framework be developed to deal with the volatile global financial markets.

“The idea lang, basically, is let us learn from the lessons of the Great Depression where each individual state decided to act on their own interests,” the President said.

sounds good.   if he can swing it.   if not, well, it’s also the same weekend that pacquiao will be fighting margarito in texas, let’s hope pacquiao wins.   consuelo de bobo.

america’s boy 2010

na-confuse naman ako kay carmen pedrosa, kolumnista ng philippine star na panahon pa ni fvr ay kilala nang chacha-federalism advocate.   inaamin niya na she has been / is critical of noynoy aquino’s candidacy, allegedly because he is the candidate of a “former colonial power” that’s against constitutional reform, i.e., chacha.

A number of readers have asked me why I am zeroing in on Noynoy. Why don’t I criticize MannyVillar or Gibo Teodoro or Dick Gordon? I could, but that would not help in exposing what I consider the most important aspect of this election: the intervention by a former colonial power.

The main objective of this intervention was to frustrate constitutional reform and to make sure that a candidate of their choosing should be elected. That candidate was Noynoy.

but really?   america is against charter change?   is not the opposite true?   i was thinking more along the lines of lila shahani sounding off on filipino voices against anti-pinoy anti-noynoy bloggers who are pro-american and pro-chacha.

Ben’s a half-White guy trying to hustle a business who has a vested interest in endorsing Gordon: they’re related. Bong’s busy opening websites in Arizona, etc. His Dad hobnobs with US officials. They’re both neo-cons who r very pro-American and I suspect want charter change so foreigners can have 100% ownership of Philippine companies. There is a Gordon/Mindanao link because the US, among others, wants its hands on Mindanao’s endless resources. Note that Davao contributed a lot to the Red Cross during Gordon’s time.

They hate Noynoy because he won’t touch his Mom’s constitution. Their dislike of Noynoy is distinct from those of others here who simply prefer Gibo or Villar, etc, which is certainly not a problem. Noynoy has been their agenda from the get-go: 90% of the posts on Get Real r about Noynoy. Why? Because they stand to lose a lot if Noynoy wins. So it’s a concentrated campaign to demonize a candidate and his supporters. But the point is that Gordon is willing to sign off far more to the US than most Filipino patriots r willing to accept.

I, for one, am not against constitutional change as such, but think there should be a plebiscite and it should be discussed nationally outside the context of a presidential election. It should most certainly not be enacted simply to extend GMA’s stay in power. After all this noise that Bong and Ben have been making, I have started to wonder MORE about Gordon’s motivations, despite his flamboyant statements about Bangit and Villar. Like Enrile, I wonder if these hits r hard enough, or if they r simply for show to placate the general public. I find it odd to routinely see people in Makati sporting the green AND red bracelets on their wrists at the same time: what does that mean? I’m surprised they don’t even bother to be more subtle.

I for one am not willing to sign off this country to GMA and to greater foreign interests, which is why I am not for charter change right now. I believe the Filipino middle class desperately needs to grow, and needs to be given a chance away from the stranglehold of monopolies and foreign corporate interests. I think the Philippines should primarily be owned by Filipinos.

seems to me that america is pro-charter change (think mindanao) and probably supporting the likes of villar, gibo, and gordon even if these candidates swear they’re not raring to chacha, haha, who do they think they’re kidding.

cowards all

it’s not only manny villar, who has been called a coward for refusing to answer questions re the c-5 extensions that allegedly benefitted his real estate empire in the millions, billions.   i don’t even think that snubbing the senate is as much a matter of cowardice as of some kinda guilt, or why won’t he take questions in the proper forum?   “is manny villar blameless? is the pope protestant?”

by cowards all i mean all five leading presidential candidates noynoy villar erap gibo and gordon, for not having the audacity, the daring, to think big and brave and to talk the radical changes that are implied in the promise of good governance.

this is not just a failure of the candidates though but a failure too of the electorate for not demanding more of these guys, which in turn is a failure of the media for inadequately informing and inspiring themselves, and the people, to ask demand clamor shout-out for changes beyond an end to corruption.   particularly changes in a system that was designed, in the first place, to benefit the few elite and NOT the manymanymanymanymany poor, as we should all see by now if only we hadn’t become too lazy to read and think and be critical, and  if only we would stop trusting in these candidates’ motherhood statements na kunyari they have the best interests of the poor at heart, because they don’t; rather they’re quite willing to play along with the same forces, inside and outside, that gloria arroyo (not to speak of past administrations, including erap, all the way back to the commonwealth) has been playing along with, to the detriment and degradation of our land and our economy, our people and our sovereignty.

they are cowards all, these leaders who don’t have the courage to stand up to the catholic church on the RH bill and sex education, never mind that 7 out of 10 filipinos want need deserve it.   cowards all who won’t stand up to the U.S. of A. on the chauvinist imperialist VFA and the IMF-WB-imposed “development plans” that over the decades have rendered the country nowhere near “developed”, rather turned us into the basket case of the ASEAN, basket-case meaning no legs of our own to stand on, no arms to work and feed ourselves with, how humiliating, how depressing.

they are cowards all.   afraid, not of going to hell if they defy the church’s stand on RH and sex education, just afraid of losing votes that the church allegedly commands.   cowards all.   afraid of espousing any kind of deep-seated change not because it’s undoable but out of fear and disinclination to defy and displease uncle sam, paano na ang campaign contributions, aray, paano na ang “special” fil-am relations, lol, how colonial the mentality pa rin.

it bears repeating what the journalist tony abaya of manilastandardtoday wrote back in august 2009 in response to rumors that noynoy might run: that what the country needs is a forward-looking president, a truly revolutionary president, someone with the attributes and visions of lee kwan yew, mahathir mohamad and gen. park chung hee:

… it is someone who has the qualities of these three foreign leaders that the Philippines badly needs in order to overcome decades of consistently poor governance, restore our badly battered self esteem, and draw for us a credible vision of what we want our country to be.

We need someone like Lee Kwan Yew who was/is personally incorruptible and at the same time was/is so conversant with economics and international relations that he could speak ex-tempore and defend his policies before an assembly of multinational CEOs and diplomats and made/make solid sense, whether they agreed/agree with him or not.

In addition we need the strong sense of nationalism of Mahathir Mohamad who in the 1980s drew a vision – Malaysia Vision 2020, that sought and seeks to transform Malaysia into a fully industrialized country by the year 2020 – that he was able to convince the multi-ethnic, multi-cultural, and multi-religious people of Malaysia to embrace as worthy of their national loyalty, beyond the narrow appeals of their tribes and ethnic groups. No mean feat, considering the catastrophic demise of equally multi-ethnic, multi-cultural, multi-religious federal Yugoslavia in the 1990s that cost hundreds of thousands of lives.

Mahathir’s nationalism also expressed itself in his readiness to fearlessly fire back at other countries, other world leaders, as well as international agencies whenever he felt they were trampling on the national self-interests of Malaysia.

We also need the single-minded determination of Gen. Park Chung Hee to transform his impoverished, resource-poor and inconsequential Republic of Korea from 1961 to 1979 (when he was assassinated) into a fully industrialized country that is now one of the ten biggest economies in the world.

… this is what the Philippines needs, a leader who can start and lead a revolution, a peaceful one, as much as possible; a violent one, if necessary.

anything less is just not good enough.  hindi na lang ako boboto.

oh and what’s this BS about villar NOT belonging to the elite just because he started out poor, unlike noynoy and gibo?   c’mon, rene azurin, you can do better than that.   by any reckoning, villar and the tsinoy taipans who all started out poor are very much a part of today’s elite, the irresponsible filipino elite, that wittingly or unwittingly collaborates with foreign powers, keeping the masses poor and marginalized.

miriam eyeballs, gloria blinks, ermita fumbles

interesting, the sudden lifting of martial law in maguindanao effective saturday 9pm.   what a relief, yes, but also what a surprise.   with hostage situations erupting in basilan and agusan del sur while congress was holding that joint session to vote on proc1959, all the signs pointed to a set-up to systematically desensitize first the people of mindanao, then maybe of the visayas and luzon, to military rule for the sake of peace and order in the run-up to the may 2010 elections.   and with gloria checking into st. luke’s for a check-up over the weekend, no one was expecting any kind of change in the new status quo.

so what are we to think?   are we to believe gma’s cohorts that suddenly it came to pass that the objectives of military rule were attained, mission accomplished, time to lift martial law, everybody happy?   parang fairy tale, if you ask me.    just yesterday, friday, press secretary cerge remonde was being nasty, accusing anti-martial law people in congress and in the streets of sympathizing with andal ampatuan jr. and warning that if the supreme court listened to them and ruled proc1959 unconstitutional, it would make the ampatuans very happy indeed.

UNFORTUNATELY, a vocal minority in the combined chambers of Congress have joined agitators outside the Batasang Pambansa Complex, in condemnation of the President. The crisis in Maguindanao, for them, has become fresh fodder for their political agenda.

Are they now shedding copious tears in sympathy with Datu Unsay Mayor Andal Ampatuan Jr., others in the clan, and some 160 individuals who have been arrested or are about to be arrested for planning or for participating in the gruesome massacre?

It is understandable that the Ampatuan clan should petition the Supreme Court to declare the Maguindanao martial law unconstitutional. Their awesome power to defy lawful authority is slipping away, and their ability to evade criminal responsibility is in jeopardy. But what are we to make of the politicians who have taken the side of this powerful family?

They do not say it out loud, but a Supreme Court decision favorable to their cause could nullify the arrest of the suspects and may render the evidence against them inadmissible.

i wonder what it was like for gloria, having to leave st. luke’s for a couple of hours or so just to preside over that national security council meeting and act upon the recommendation to lift martial law.   she must have asked (if i were president i would have asked), why can’t it wait til monday?

why not indeed.   i think because the order came from obama on high, no less.   i think that miriam’s conspiracy theory, involving the notorious CIA, hit too close to home.

“This is part of a script. Who are orchestrating the events? It is obvious there is a conspiracy, a meeting of the minds. I have reason to believe that this (conspiracy) is not a random development. They’re not just happening. One, the timing is suspicious, second, there is no such pattern of one after the other in the history of this province,’’ she said.

…In a briefing for Senate reporters after attending the budget hearing of the Upper Chamber, Santiago said the conspiracy could consist of the beleaguered Ampatuan clan; the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA); a cabal of a criminal group that would benefit the secretaries of the Department of National Defense (DND) or Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG); and the military establishment.

… Santiago said the Ampatuans, one of the two strong tribal clans fighting for supremacy in Maguindanao, could be working out a deal where in they would prefer to be charged with the crime of rebellion rather than multiple murder. Rebellion is difficult to prove and carries a lighter penalty. In case of conviction on rebellion charges, Santiago said the Ampatuans could be given parole or pardon.

She said the CIA could become a plain pawn in the Mindanao game “so they could do what the Philippine government is preventing them from doing so.”

and i’m not alone in thinking that obama had something to do with the lifting of martial law.   just saw this tweet by manolo:

mlq3 Billy Esposo thinks Madame had votes in SC and Congress to OK martial law, it’s Washington that made her revoke it.

and no doubt secretary ermita wasn’t too happy about it ’cause, well, he fumbled the announcement.    after his pasakalye, that things were returning to normal in maguindanao, the criminal justice system is now working, local government in place, armm governor replaced, he asked na for questions from the press, haha, someone had to remind him that he had forgotten “the most important item”: that gloria had agreed to lift martial law.   ano ‘yon, senior moment?   lol.    more like a freudian slip of the tongue, but in reverse, like selective forgetting?   a sign of subconscious, if fleeting, resistance, at the very least.

just goes to show what puppets gloria and her gang are, dancing to the beat of washington, ora mismo, like it or not.