Category: america

mubarak / marcos / endgame

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said he will not run for a new term in office in September elections, but rejected demands that he step down immediately and leave the country, vowing to die on Egypt’s soil, in a television address Tuesday after a dramatic day in which a quarter-million protesters called on him to go.

Mubarak said he would serve out the rest of his term working to ensure a “peaceful transfer of power” and carry out amendments to rules on presidential elections.

in feb 86 marcos too was loathe to go.   until the very last minute marcos was trying to convince enrile to return to the fold.   the last phone call was feb 25 past 8 a.m.   enrile was getting ready to leave camp crame for cory’s inauguration in club filipino.   marcos suggested a provisional government that enrile would lead, but he marcos would stay on as honorary president.   huling hirit kumbaga.

President Obama, clearly frustrated by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s intention to retain his hold on power until elections later this year, said Tuesday evening that he has told Mubarak that a transition to representative government “must begin now.”

In brief remarks at the White House, Obama made no mention of Mubarak’s announcement that he had decided not to stand for reelection. Instead, Obama said he had told the Egyptian president in a telephone call that this was a “moment of transformation” in Egypt and that “the status quo is not sustainable.”

president reagan too was loathe to publicly and directly ask marcos to resign.   early in the morning of feb 24 he sent a private message that the marcoses would be welcome in the u.s.   also he gave instructions that marcos be “approached carefully” and “asked rather than told” to depart.   it was not until 7:30 in the evening that the white house finally “endorsed the provisional government of Mrs. Corazon Aquino, abandoning a 20-year ally in Mr. Marcos for the sake of a ‘peaceful transition’ in the Philippines.” . . . “Attempts to prolong the life of the present regime by violence are futile. A solution to this crisis can only be achieved through a peaceful transition to a new government.”

Angry demonstrators, fed up with Mubarak’s three-decade rule, jeered at the president’s remarks while watching his speech on TV in Tahrir Square on Tuesday night and chanted that he should go immediately.

Senior Egyptian opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei, who has expressed readiness to lead the country’s popular uprising, has said that the people’s message is clear and they want Mubarak out now and not in September.

After Mubarak’s address, the protesters said that this Friday would be the “Friday of departure” for the president and announced that they would be gathering at his palace on Friday afternoon.

in feb 86 while the coryistas were still focused on shielding the edsa camps from marcos forces, leftist groups, acting on the false alarm that the marcoses were gone, had moved on to mendiola, only to find that the rumors were false.   but it was these militants who baited soldiers to fire warning shots, which freaked out the marcoses who thought that the edsa crowds were coming to attack the palace.  (the coryistas came too but only after cory’s inauguration.) and so they started making plans to move out and asked the americans for transpo to get to paoay.   but paoay’s airport had no lights so they had to make a stopover in clark that night.   which gave the new government time to consider the implications of allowing marcos to get to paoay.   in the end cory ordered that the marcoses be flown out of the philippines to prevent further civil unrest.

yes, a nonviolent seige on the pharaoh’s palace, it’s time.

egypt / edsa

in the beginning it seemed like egypt was doing an edsa.   and then it became clear that, where we had cory-in-waiting to replace marcos, the anti-mubarak forces have no leader to replace the dictator with, and are/were depending on, expecting, the united states, perceived to be the power behind mubarak, to take care of removing him and installing a transition government until elections can be held.   which brings home the effect of 30 long years of martial law.   suwerte pa rin tayo, 14 years lang, not long enough for censorship and suppression to dumb down the pre-martial law generation.

but there are some similarities.   like reagan in 1986, obama seems to need convincing that it’s time for america’s friend to cut, and cut cleanly.   the fear here in 1986 was that the communists might take over a weak new leader, and there go the U.S. bases.   the fear now in egypt is that the the muslim brotherhood might take over a weak new leader, and there goes israel beloved.

also, an imminent economic collapse, though not because of a deliberate boycott of government and crony businesses but just because everything has shut down and millions, maybe billions, are being lost everyday, must find mubarak, having lost all credibility with what seems a majority of egyptian people, under extreme pressure to ship out.   it would seem too that the hope of european leaders is for america to fly him out a la marcos, let him fall with some dignity rather than be put to trial a la saddam hussein, as some egyptian protestors wish.

so far i haven’t heard any news of a split military, which greatly helped our people power in ’86.   but who knows what’s going on behind the scenes.

too bad that nobel laureate elbaradai is an expat pala and therefore not really wellknown or well-loved in egypt.   he’s the perfect leader for the transition, i would think, and the people of egypt could do worse than to rally behind him.   a united opposition can bring down mubarak quite quickly, and give obama no choice but to support a transition government and start over re israel and the middle east.

~~~

Revolution
Is Mubarak’s time up?
Obama’s Mideast Moment of Truth
Will Egypt mobilize or radicalize Arab youth?
Democracy’s Drawback
Egypt without Mubaraks: Sampson Option or New Political Order?

g-20, apec, aquino, and the peso

MANILA, Philippines—Six Filipino activists who had planned to take part in alternative meetings that are set to run parallel to the G20 summit in South Korea have been deported from Seoul, their colleagues said on Sunday.

… The activists were put on a flight back to Manila late Saturday after being told by South Korean authorities that they were blacklisted and could not enter the country, the activists said…. One of those deported, Maria Lorena Macabuag of the group Migrant Forum Asia, said they were only attending a peaceful parallel forum and had not broken any law.

Her companions were identified as Josua Mata of the Alliance of Progressive Labor, Joseph Purugganan of Focus on the Global South, musician-poet and Asian Public Intellectual fellow Jess Santiago, Rogelio Soluta of the Kilusang Mayo Uno and Paul Quinto of Ibon Philippines.

… “We were granted visas and it was clear that we were invited by KCTU. It was all disclosed and it was clear that we are not a threat to them,” Purugganan said.

make that 7 activists, the 7th being Bernice Coronacion of the Alliance of Progressive Labor.   hmm.   heard ibon’s sonny africa saying on ANC that only filipino activists have been denied entry.   and so there is wondering whether this is with the collusion of the philippine government, which would explain why the aquino admin is not offended?   but if true, why so?   why would we not want filipino activists represented, having been invited to participate, in the parallel forum organized by the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions?   baka kasi mag-ingay masyado this “noisy minority” that the aquinos think very little of?

and then, again, isn’t it just as possible that this is a kind of backlash vis a vis the aug 23 bloodbath and the vietnam tweets, a kind of curveball from a good friend of hong kong and vietnam?   okay okay it may be a stretch but after reading this…

What is the Philippine interest in this event? At first glance, there is not much to indicate that the Philippines is represented, much less invited. The president of neighboring Indonesia regularly sits at the summit. Korea as the host country exercised its privilege of inviting Singapore, as well as Vietnam which is this year’s head of the ASEAN. With these three ASEAN countries sitting in G20, could it be safely said that Philippine interests are well represented? The presence of at least three ASEAN leaders both have advantages and risks, due to the diverse characteristics of small, free market leader Singapore, socialist Vietnam, and big Indonesia.

… it’s like we’re being snubbed?   and then, again, it could be simply that aquino’s presence would be of no consequence anyway, given the philippines’ reputation of being america’s lackey, no more no less, especially when it comes to the economy?

The G20 leaders will be expected to affirm agreements drafted less than a month ago by their finance chiefs. They promised to avoid a damaging round of competitive currency depreciations. China accuses the United States, however, of already violating the spirit of the pledge by printing excess dollars, which Beijing says contributes to Chinese inflation. Washington accuses Beijing of keeping its currency artificially weak.

[G-20 economies represent about 90 percent of the gross domestic product globally, nearly 80 percent of world trade, and two-thirds of the world’s population. G8 members — Great Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States — plus Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey and the European Union (EU).]

mabuti’t nag-iingay ang brazil:

… Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva blames both China and the US for keeping their currencies artificially low — causing the Brazilian real to rise and making his country’s exports less competitive — and could stir things up.

“We believe the United States and China are creating a currency war,” Silva told reporters Wednesday. “So, I am going to the G-20 to put up a fight.”

He didn’t specify what steps he intends to propose.

so the summit should be interesting, america vs. china, and everyone else vs. america and china?   even more interesting, our very own dr. bernardo m. villegas, who is usually so pro-america and pro-imf-worldbank, is predicting that the peso will depreciate post-G20.

In an economic forum sponsored by Security Bank for its clients last October 22, I had the temerity to make the fearless forecast that the peso-dollar exchange rate at the end of this year will be closer to P45 to 46 than to P40 to 41.

…The bleak outlook for the results of the G-20 in Seoul is in stark contrast with the upbeat mood in 2008 when the G-20 met for the first time to help stabilize the global financial system at the beginning of the Great Recession. Two years ago, there was an admirable cohesiveness among the leaders. Today, there is a “clash of interests and a clash of perceptions” that could result in a stalemate at the summit that would impede progress toward recovery. Mr. Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, is more specific in his warnings. He is afraid that tensions over exchange rates could degenerate into trade protectionism: “That could, as it did in the 1930s, lead to a disastrous collapse in activity around the world.”

… The Filipino overseas workers, the biggest source of foreign exchange for the country (estimated to reach $20 billion in 2010), are getting more sophisticated in their understanding of foreign exchange rate fluctuations, especially with the advice of our leading banks and remittance companies. It is very probable that a good number of them will postpone remitting their dollars to the Philippines in the hope of a peso depreciation late this year or early next year. For this reason, I do not expect the usual larger inflow of dollars for the Christmas holidays. The more important expenditures for the families of these OFWs have to do with education, which usually peak in June of each year. There is, therefore, reason for the OFWs to wait and see how the exchange war will work out and keep their dollars in the meantime.

Furthermore, there is reason to expect that portfolio investments in the Philippine capital market could slow down as many more countries follow the lead of China that raised interest rates for the first time in nearly three years because of concerns about increasing inflationary pressures in the economy. As more countries raise interest rates, they would attract more “hot money” into their respective economies. With inflation at low levels in the Philippines, I do not foresee our Central Bank raising interest rates in the near future. If this scenario of higher interest rates among our trading partners should be fulfilled, I am issuing a word of caution to those who are overly excited about our booming stock market today. Easy come, easy go.

These are my reasons for expecting the peso to depreciate closer to P45 to 46 by the end of this year. At the risk of immodesty, let me remind my readers that at the beginning of 2010, I was ridiculed by my fellow economists (including those working for the former administration) when I forecasted that the GDP would grow at 7 percent. The consensus forecast then was between 3 to 5 percent. As everyone knows, GDP grew by 7.9 percent in the first semester and is mostly likely to grow at 7 percent for the whole year. I rest my case.

samantala right after the G-20 summit in south korea on nov 11-12, there’s the APEC summit in japan nov 13-14 that aquino is attending (minus ms.lang of course) along with many of the G-20 leaders, including obama.

[APEC member economies are Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Peru, the Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, the United States and Vietnam. They account for 40.5 percent 1 of the world’s population, 54.2 percent of world GDP and 43.7 percent of world trade.]

aquino daw is set to propose that a framework be developed to deal with the volatile global financial markets.

“The idea lang, basically, is let us learn from the lessons of the Great Depression where each individual state decided to act on their own interests,” the President said.

sounds good.   if he can swing it.   if not, well, it’s also the same weekend that pacquiao will be fighting margarito in texas, let’s hope pacquiao wins.   consuelo de bobo.

america’s boy 2010

na-confuse naman ako kay carmen pedrosa, kolumnista ng philippine star na panahon pa ni fvr ay kilala nang chacha-federalism advocate.   inaamin niya na she has been / is critical of noynoy aquino’s candidacy, allegedly because he is the candidate of a “former colonial power” that’s against constitutional reform, i.e., chacha.

A number of readers have asked me why I am zeroing in on Noynoy. Why don’t I criticize MannyVillar or Gibo Teodoro or Dick Gordon? I could, but that would not help in exposing what I consider the most important aspect of this election: the intervention by a former colonial power.

The main objective of this intervention was to frustrate constitutional reform and to make sure that a candidate of their choosing should be elected. That candidate was Noynoy.

but really?   america is against charter change?   is not the opposite true?   i was thinking more along the lines of lila shahani sounding off on filipino voices against anti-pinoy anti-noynoy bloggers who are pro-american and pro-chacha.

Ben’s a half-White guy trying to hustle a business who has a vested interest in endorsing Gordon: they’re related. Bong’s busy opening websites in Arizona, etc. His Dad hobnobs with US officials. They’re both neo-cons who r very pro-American and I suspect want charter change so foreigners can have 100% ownership of Philippine companies. There is a Gordon/Mindanao link because the US, among others, wants its hands on Mindanao’s endless resources. Note that Davao contributed a lot to the Red Cross during Gordon’s time.

They hate Noynoy because he won’t touch his Mom’s constitution. Their dislike of Noynoy is distinct from those of others here who simply prefer Gibo or Villar, etc, which is certainly not a problem. Noynoy has been their agenda from the get-go: 90% of the posts on Get Real r about Noynoy. Why? Because they stand to lose a lot if Noynoy wins. So it’s a concentrated campaign to demonize a candidate and his supporters. But the point is that Gordon is willing to sign off far more to the US than most Filipino patriots r willing to accept.

I, for one, am not against constitutional change as such, but think there should be a plebiscite and it should be discussed nationally outside the context of a presidential election. It should most certainly not be enacted simply to extend GMA’s stay in power. After all this noise that Bong and Ben have been making, I have started to wonder MORE about Gordon’s motivations, despite his flamboyant statements about Bangit and Villar. Like Enrile, I wonder if these hits r hard enough, or if they r simply for show to placate the general public. I find it odd to routinely see people in Makati sporting the green AND red bracelets on their wrists at the same time: what does that mean? I’m surprised they don’t even bother to be more subtle.

I for one am not willing to sign off this country to GMA and to greater foreign interests, which is why I am not for charter change right now. I believe the Filipino middle class desperately needs to grow, and needs to be given a chance away from the stranglehold of monopolies and foreign corporate interests. I think the Philippines should primarily be owned by Filipinos.

seems to me that america is pro-charter change (think mindanao) and probably supporting the likes of villar, gibo, and gordon even if these candidates swear they’re not raring to chacha, haha, who do they think they’re kidding.