Category: america

egypt / edsa

in the beginning it seemed like egypt was doing an edsa.   and then it became clear that, where we had cory-in-waiting to replace marcos, the anti-mubarak forces have no leader to replace the dictator with, and are/were depending on, expecting, the united states, perceived to be the power behind mubarak, to take care of removing him and installing a transition government until elections can be held.   which brings home the effect of 30 long years of martial law.   suwerte pa rin tayo, 14 years lang, not long enough for censorship and suppression to dumb down the pre-martial law generation.

but there are some similarities.   like reagan in 1986, obama seems to need convincing that it’s time for america’s friend to cut, and cut cleanly.   the fear here in 1986 was that the communists might take over a weak new leader, and there go the U.S. bases.   the fear now in egypt is that the the muslim brotherhood might take over a weak new leader, and there goes israel beloved.

also, an imminent economic collapse, though not because of a deliberate boycott of government and crony businesses but just because everything has shut down and millions, maybe billions, are being lost everyday, must find mubarak, having lost all credibility with what seems a majority of egyptian people, under extreme pressure to ship out.   it would seem too that the hope of european leaders is for america to fly him out a la marcos, let him fall with some dignity rather than be put to trial a la saddam hussein, as some egyptian protestors wish.

so far i haven’t heard any news of a split military, which greatly helped our people power in ’86.   but who knows what’s going on behind the scenes.

too bad that nobel laureate elbaradai is an expat pala and therefore not really wellknown or well-loved in egypt.   he’s the perfect leader for the transition, i would think, and the people of egypt could do worse than to rally behind him.   a united opposition can bring down mubarak quite quickly, and give obama no choice but to support a transition government and start over re israel and the middle east.

~~~

Revolution
Is Mubarak’s time up?
Obama’s Mideast Moment of Truth
Will Egypt mobilize or radicalize Arab youth?
Democracy’s Drawback
Egypt without Mubaraks: Sampson Option or New Political Order?

g-20, apec, aquino, and the peso

MANILA, Philippines—Six Filipino activists who had planned to take part in alternative meetings that are set to run parallel to the G20 summit in South Korea have been deported from Seoul, their colleagues said on Sunday.

… The activists were put on a flight back to Manila late Saturday after being told by South Korean authorities that they were blacklisted and could not enter the country, the activists said…. One of those deported, Maria Lorena Macabuag of the group Migrant Forum Asia, said they were only attending a peaceful parallel forum and had not broken any law.

Her companions were identified as Josua Mata of the Alliance of Progressive Labor, Joseph Purugganan of Focus on the Global South, musician-poet and Asian Public Intellectual fellow Jess Santiago, Rogelio Soluta of the Kilusang Mayo Uno and Paul Quinto of Ibon Philippines.

… “We were granted visas and it was clear that we were invited by KCTU. It was all disclosed and it was clear that we are not a threat to them,” Purugganan said.

make that 7 activists, the 7th being Bernice Coronacion of the Alliance of Progressive Labor.   hmm.   heard ibon’s sonny africa saying on ANC that only filipino activists have been denied entry.   and so there is wondering whether this is with the collusion of the philippine government, which would explain why the aquino admin is not offended?   but if true, why so?   why would we not want filipino activists represented, having been invited to participate, in the parallel forum organized by the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions?   baka kasi mag-ingay masyado this “noisy minority” that the aquinos think very little of?

and then, again, isn’t it just as possible that this is a kind of backlash vis a vis the aug 23 bloodbath and the vietnam tweets, a kind of curveball from a good friend of hong kong and vietnam?   okay okay it may be a stretch but after reading this…

What is the Philippine interest in this event? At first glance, there is not much to indicate that the Philippines is represented, much less invited. The president of neighboring Indonesia regularly sits at the summit. Korea as the host country exercised its privilege of inviting Singapore, as well as Vietnam which is this year’s head of the ASEAN. With these three ASEAN countries sitting in G20, could it be safely said that Philippine interests are well represented? The presence of at least three ASEAN leaders both have advantages and risks, due to the diverse characteristics of small, free market leader Singapore, socialist Vietnam, and big Indonesia.

… it’s like we’re being snubbed?   and then, again, it could be simply that aquino’s presence would be of no consequence anyway, given the philippines’ reputation of being america’s lackey, no more no less, especially when it comes to the economy?

The G20 leaders will be expected to affirm agreements drafted less than a month ago by their finance chiefs. They promised to avoid a damaging round of competitive currency depreciations. China accuses the United States, however, of already violating the spirit of the pledge by printing excess dollars, which Beijing says contributes to Chinese inflation. Washington accuses Beijing of keeping its currency artificially weak.

[G-20 economies represent about 90 percent of the gross domestic product globally, nearly 80 percent of world trade, and two-thirds of the world’s population. G8 members — Great Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States — plus Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey and the European Union (EU).]

mabuti’t nag-iingay ang brazil:

… Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva blames both China and the US for keeping their currencies artificially low — causing the Brazilian real to rise and making his country’s exports less competitive — and could stir things up.

“We believe the United States and China are creating a currency war,” Silva told reporters Wednesday. “So, I am going to the G-20 to put up a fight.”

He didn’t specify what steps he intends to propose.

so the summit should be interesting, america vs. china, and everyone else vs. america and china?   even more interesting, our very own dr. bernardo m. villegas, who is usually so pro-america and pro-imf-worldbank, is predicting that the peso will depreciate post-G20.

In an economic forum sponsored by Security Bank for its clients last October 22, I had the temerity to make the fearless forecast that the peso-dollar exchange rate at the end of this year will be closer to P45 to 46 than to P40 to 41.

…The bleak outlook for the results of the G-20 in Seoul is in stark contrast with the upbeat mood in 2008 when the G-20 met for the first time to help stabilize the global financial system at the beginning of the Great Recession. Two years ago, there was an admirable cohesiveness among the leaders. Today, there is a “clash of interests and a clash of perceptions” that could result in a stalemate at the summit that would impede progress toward recovery. Mr. Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, is more specific in his warnings. He is afraid that tensions over exchange rates could degenerate into trade protectionism: “That could, as it did in the 1930s, lead to a disastrous collapse in activity around the world.”

… The Filipino overseas workers, the biggest source of foreign exchange for the country (estimated to reach $20 billion in 2010), are getting more sophisticated in their understanding of foreign exchange rate fluctuations, especially with the advice of our leading banks and remittance companies. It is very probable that a good number of them will postpone remitting their dollars to the Philippines in the hope of a peso depreciation late this year or early next year. For this reason, I do not expect the usual larger inflow of dollars for the Christmas holidays. The more important expenditures for the families of these OFWs have to do with education, which usually peak in June of each year. There is, therefore, reason for the OFWs to wait and see how the exchange war will work out and keep their dollars in the meantime.

Furthermore, there is reason to expect that portfolio investments in the Philippine capital market could slow down as many more countries follow the lead of China that raised interest rates for the first time in nearly three years because of concerns about increasing inflationary pressures in the economy. As more countries raise interest rates, they would attract more “hot money” into their respective economies. With inflation at low levels in the Philippines, I do not foresee our Central Bank raising interest rates in the near future. If this scenario of higher interest rates among our trading partners should be fulfilled, I am issuing a word of caution to those who are overly excited about our booming stock market today. Easy come, easy go.

These are my reasons for expecting the peso to depreciate closer to P45 to 46 by the end of this year. At the risk of immodesty, let me remind my readers that at the beginning of 2010, I was ridiculed by my fellow economists (including those working for the former administration) when I forecasted that the GDP would grow at 7 percent. The consensus forecast then was between 3 to 5 percent. As everyone knows, GDP grew by 7.9 percent in the first semester and is mostly likely to grow at 7 percent for the whole year. I rest my case.

samantala right after the G-20 summit in south korea on nov 11-12, there’s the APEC summit in japan nov 13-14 that aquino is attending (minus ms.lang of course) along with many of the G-20 leaders, including obama.

[APEC member economies are Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Peru, the Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, the United States and Vietnam. They account for 40.5 percent 1 of the world’s population, 54.2 percent of world GDP and 43.7 percent of world trade.]

aquino daw is set to propose that a framework be developed to deal with the volatile global financial markets.

“The idea lang, basically, is let us learn from the lessons of the Great Depression where each individual state decided to act on their own interests,” the President said.

sounds good.   if he can swing it.   if not, well, it’s also the same weekend that pacquiao will be fighting margarito in texas, let’s hope pacquiao wins.   consuelo de bobo.

america’s boy 2010

na-confuse naman ako kay carmen pedrosa, kolumnista ng philippine star na panahon pa ni fvr ay kilala nang chacha-federalism advocate.   inaamin niya na she has been / is critical of noynoy aquino’s candidacy, allegedly because he is the candidate of a “former colonial power” that’s against constitutional reform, i.e., chacha.

A number of readers have asked me why I am zeroing in on Noynoy. Why don’t I criticize MannyVillar or Gibo Teodoro or Dick Gordon? I could, but that would not help in exposing what I consider the most important aspect of this election: the intervention by a former colonial power.

The main objective of this intervention was to frustrate constitutional reform and to make sure that a candidate of their choosing should be elected. That candidate was Noynoy.

but really?   america is against charter change?   is not the opposite true?   i was thinking more along the lines of lila shahani sounding off on filipino voices against anti-pinoy anti-noynoy bloggers who are pro-american and pro-chacha.

Ben’s a half-White guy trying to hustle a business who has a vested interest in endorsing Gordon: they’re related. Bong’s busy opening websites in Arizona, etc. His Dad hobnobs with US officials. They’re both neo-cons who r very pro-American and I suspect want charter change so foreigners can have 100% ownership of Philippine companies. There is a Gordon/Mindanao link because the US, among others, wants its hands on Mindanao’s endless resources. Note that Davao contributed a lot to the Red Cross during Gordon’s time.

They hate Noynoy because he won’t touch his Mom’s constitution. Their dislike of Noynoy is distinct from those of others here who simply prefer Gibo or Villar, etc, which is certainly not a problem. Noynoy has been their agenda from the get-go: 90% of the posts on Get Real r about Noynoy. Why? Because they stand to lose a lot if Noynoy wins. So it’s a concentrated campaign to demonize a candidate and his supporters. But the point is that Gordon is willing to sign off far more to the US than most Filipino patriots r willing to accept.

I, for one, am not against constitutional change as such, but think there should be a plebiscite and it should be discussed nationally outside the context of a presidential election. It should most certainly not be enacted simply to extend GMA’s stay in power. After all this noise that Bong and Ben have been making, I have started to wonder MORE about Gordon’s motivations, despite his flamboyant statements about Bangit and Villar. Like Enrile, I wonder if these hits r hard enough, or if they r simply for show to placate the general public. I find it odd to routinely see people in Makati sporting the green AND red bracelets on their wrists at the same time: what does that mean? I’m surprised they don’t even bother to be more subtle.

I for one am not willing to sign off this country to GMA and to greater foreign interests, which is why I am not for charter change right now. I believe the Filipino middle class desperately needs to grow, and needs to be given a chance away from the stranglehold of monopolies and foreign corporate interests. I think the Philippines should primarily be owned by Filipinos.

seems to me that america is pro-charter change (think mindanao) and probably supporting the likes of villar, gibo, and gordon even if these candidates swear they’re not raring to chacha, haha, who do they think they’re kidding.

cowards all

it’s not only manny villar, who has been called a coward for refusing to answer questions re the c-5 extensions that allegedly benefitted his real estate empire in the millions, billions.   i don’t even think that snubbing the senate is as much a matter of cowardice as of some kinda guilt, or why won’t he take questions in the proper forum?   “is manny villar blameless? is the pope protestant?”

by cowards all i mean all five leading presidential candidates noynoy villar erap gibo and gordon, for not having the audacity, the daring, to think big and brave and to talk the radical changes that are implied in the promise of good governance.

this is not just a failure of the candidates though but a failure too of the electorate for not demanding more of these guys, which in turn is a failure of the media for inadequately informing and inspiring themselves, and the people, to ask demand clamor shout-out for changes beyond an end to corruption.   particularly changes in a system that was designed, in the first place, to benefit the few elite and NOT the manymanymanymanymany poor, as we should all see by now if only we hadn’t become too lazy to read and think and be critical, and  if only we would stop trusting in these candidates’ motherhood statements na kunyari they have the best interests of the poor at heart, because they don’t; rather they’re quite willing to play along with the same forces, inside and outside, that gloria arroyo (not to speak of past administrations, including erap, all the way back to the commonwealth) has been playing along with, to the detriment and degradation of our land and our economy, our people and our sovereignty.

they are cowards all, these leaders who don’t have the courage to stand up to the catholic church on the RH bill and sex education, never mind that 7 out of 10 filipinos want need deserve it.   cowards all who won’t stand up to the U.S. of A. on the chauvinist imperialist VFA and the IMF-WB-imposed “development plans” that over the decades have rendered the country nowhere near “developed”, rather turned us into the basket case of the ASEAN, basket-case meaning no legs of our own to stand on, no arms to work and feed ourselves with, how humiliating, how depressing.

they are cowards all.   afraid, not of going to hell if they defy the church’s stand on RH and sex education, just afraid of losing votes that the church allegedly commands.   cowards all.   afraid of espousing any kind of deep-seated change not because it’s undoable but out of fear and disinclination to defy and displease uncle sam, paano na ang campaign contributions, aray, paano na ang “special” fil-am relations, lol, how colonial the mentality pa rin.

it bears repeating what the journalist tony abaya of manilastandardtoday wrote back in august 2009 in response to rumors that noynoy might run: that what the country needs is a forward-looking president, a truly revolutionary president, someone with the attributes and visions of lee kwan yew, mahathir mohamad and gen. park chung hee:

… it is someone who has the qualities of these three foreign leaders that the Philippines badly needs in order to overcome decades of consistently poor governance, restore our badly battered self esteem, and draw for us a credible vision of what we want our country to be.

We need someone like Lee Kwan Yew who was/is personally incorruptible and at the same time was/is so conversant with economics and international relations that he could speak ex-tempore and defend his policies before an assembly of multinational CEOs and diplomats and made/make solid sense, whether they agreed/agree with him or not.

In addition we need the strong sense of nationalism of Mahathir Mohamad who in the 1980s drew a vision – Malaysia Vision 2020, that sought and seeks to transform Malaysia into a fully industrialized country by the year 2020 – that he was able to convince the multi-ethnic, multi-cultural, and multi-religious people of Malaysia to embrace as worthy of their national loyalty, beyond the narrow appeals of their tribes and ethnic groups. No mean feat, considering the catastrophic demise of equally multi-ethnic, multi-cultural, multi-religious federal Yugoslavia in the 1990s that cost hundreds of thousands of lives.

Mahathir’s nationalism also expressed itself in his readiness to fearlessly fire back at other countries, other world leaders, as well as international agencies whenever he felt they were trampling on the national self-interests of Malaysia.

We also need the single-minded determination of Gen. Park Chung Hee to transform his impoverished, resource-poor and inconsequential Republic of Korea from 1961 to 1979 (when he was assassinated) into a fully industrialized country that is now one of the ten biggest economies in the world.

… this is what the Philippines needs, a leader who can start and lead a revolution, a peaceful one, as much as possible; a violent one, if necessary.

anything less is just not good enough.  hindi na lang ako boboto.

oh and what’s this BS about villar NOT belonging to the elite just because he started out poor, unlike noynoy and gibo?   c’mon, rene azurin, you can do better than that.   by any reckoning, villar and the tsinoy taipans who all started out poor are very much a part of today’s elite, the irresponsible filipino elite, that wittingly or unwittingly collaborates with foreign powers, keeping the masses poor and marginalized.