… Garma in The Hague

On the ICC front, it would seem that Sonny Trillanes & Royina Garma have been sighted in The Hague, which would suggest na totoo ang tsismis, the police colonel will be testifying for the prosecution. Read “Duterte and Garma: The next chapter” by Marit Stinus-Cabugon.

The police colonel, merciless and feared even by her fellow police officers, became the face of President Duterte’s war on drugs in Cebu City. The war was indeed bloody and extremely violent. In 2019, the Cebu City Police Office was furthermore used to harass then-mayor (now vice mayor) Tomas Osmeña, his slate and supporters. Osmeña was defeated, and Garma was rewarded by the president with the position of general manager of the Philippine Charity Sweepstakes Office (PCSO).

… It is an interesting twist that Trillanes, bitter foe of the former president, was the link between Garma and the ICC. Maybe Garma weighed her options. Hiding in the US was out of the picture. As for the Philippines, case or no case, she is hardly safe considering her testimonies against former colleagues. Also, the line of victims of the Duterte years’ violent law enforcement operations and extrajudicial killings is long. Some affected individuals might seek retribution.

The postponement “until further notice” of the much-anticipated Sept. 23 hearing comes as a great disappointment to those who pin their hopes on the ICC to bring former president Duterte to justice. However, it also gives the prosecution more time to prepare. What matters is that he will not be released, whether to a third country or to the Philippines. Being detained far from home may indeed have taken its toll on the mental health of the 80-year-old former president. However, allowing him to leave the Netherlands before the trial has even begun would be a victory for the very man who is on trial for crimes against humanity.

Garma doesn’t bode good for the defense, and the Duterte camp knows it. Maybe it’s why they’re suddenly on overdrive. My YouTube algo is rife with new live videos of some DDS peeps rallying in Liwasang Bonifacio demanding that BBM step down because he’s just as corrupt as everybody else in Congress and the Senate and the judiciary, and retired military officers vlogging and pushing violent versions of a people-powered government cleansed of all crooked politicians, or something like that.

Malinaw naman na ang goal ay maiupo si VP Sara, ngunit ayon kay Randy David, malabo itong mangyari nang basta-basta. Read “Don’t waste the anger” https://opinion.inquirer.net/

The Marcos administration wants to keep the anger alive, but under control, so it can immobilize its political enemies—notably the remnants of the Duterte regime. At the same time, it seeks to purge its own ranks of officials whose greed it can no longer defend, not because it has developed an ethical skin, but because the specter of removal from power before the end of its term has become plausible.

On the other side are the Duterte forces, still smarting from the sudden arrest and detention of their leader on orders of the International Criminal Court last March. Their sole agenda is to delegitimize Marcos Jr. and replace him with the constitutional successor, Vice President Sara Duterte. Outside of impeachment, they cannot do this without the tacit support of the military and the cooperation of the middle classes. Otherwise, they will have to wait until 2028. For now, they want to keep the spotlight on the Marcos administration’s culpability in the flood control scandal, hoping to sustain public anger until the next election.

Sana’y magdilang-anghel si Randy. Because so far the Independent Commission on Infrastructure (ICI) isn’t inspiring confidence that all corrupt heads will roll. What is, and why is it all, going on behind closed doors? That Mayor Benjie Magalong has resigned in disgust has online groupchats buzzing with prominent names allegedly being exempted from investigation. Guess who.

Distorting EDSA, Dismissing Agrava

Heard a pro-Duterte lawyer vlogger telling her followers na kung maraming marami silang jo-join sa  rallies, maaaring sumama na pati ang military, just like in ’86 daw when the military went to EDSA to protect daw the people in case of violent actions from the powers-that-be.

She also said that she doesn’t believe there can be a truly credible investigative commission. “Remember the Agrava Commission? May naniwala ba?” She reminded that there were two reports “dahil hindi magkásundô” [ang commissioners].

THE MILITARY IN EDSA 86

Sinong military troops ang pumuntang EDSA in ’86 to protect the people? Enrile, FVR, and Gringo’s RAM? The Marines’ Tadiar and Balbas?

FACT.  Enrile and Gringo’s Reform the Armed Forces Movement went to Camp Aguinaldo Saturday afternoon, joined by FVR a few hours later, to defect and take a stand vs Marcos (after their coup plot to replace the dictator was discovered). Wala pang tao noon sa EDSA. It was Day 7 of Cory‘s crony-boycott campaign. Close to midnight na when the people went to EDSA upon the call of Butz Aquino and Cardinal Sin to protect the rebel military who were perceived to be possible allies against the dictator.

FACT. Marine Commander General Artemio Tadiar and his tanks went to EDSA Sunday on orders to eliminate Enrile and co. but the people stopped them in Ortigas (as Enrile was crossing the highway to join forces with FVR in Camp Crame).  Monday Col. Braulio Balbas and his howitzers were able to enter Camp Aguinaldo through Libis, with orders to bomb Crame across the highway, but Crame was full of people protecting Enrile and Ramos, and Balbas simply disobeyed orders.

So. It’s not true that the military withdrew their support from Marcos and went to EDSA to protect the people. It was the people, waving Ninoy’s and Cory’s colors and banners, who marched to EDSA to protect the rebel military, not the other way around. Let’s get that straight. https://edsarevolution.com/chronology/

AGRAVA COMMISSION

Hindi rin totoo na walang naniwala sa findings ng Agrava Fact-Finding Board on the Ninoy assasination. Kapani-paniwala ang patunay ng Board na nagsinungaling sina Marcos at Olivas when they insisted na sa tarmac binaril si Ninoy at si Galman ang bumaril sa kanya.

Based on eyewitness accounts and audio recordings, the Board established beyond doubt that Ninoy, the victim of a military conspiracy, was shot on the service stairs by the soldier right behind him. All five members of the Board agreed on this principal finding.

The Majority and Minority reports differed only on how high the military conspiracy went. Chair Corazon Agrava named only the six (6) soldiers who were on the stairs with Ninoy, plus their immediate superior Avsecom chief Gen. Luther Custodio. The majority of four (Dante Santos, Ernesto Herrera, Amado Dizon, and Luciano Salazar) went all the way up to Ver and Olivas, with 22 military men, and one civilian.

That the Majority Report (Oct 1984) dared belie the dictator’s communist-hitman-tale and lay the blame squarely at the feet of Ver, Marcos’s highest military official, was a high point in the struggle to obtain justice for Ninoy.

Unfortunately, if expectedly, following the dictator’s orders na “Mag moro-moro na lang kayo”, the 1985 Sandiganbayan trial (Pamaran Court) declared inadmissible in court the copious evidence unearthed by the Agrava Board, and acquitted all 26, ruling that Ninoy was shot by Galman who was in turn shot by the military. The very next day Cory announced that she would run for President if Marcos were to hold snap elections. We all know how that turned out.

A year after Cory assumed office, there was a Sandiganbayan retrial of the Aquino-Galman double murder case (Hermosisima Court 1987-’90), this while Marcos loyalists mounted coup attempt after coup attempt to topple Cory and bring back Marcos. Criminal Case No. 10010 and 10011 was finally decided a year after Marcos died. It was a compromise decision, upholding Agrava’s finding of a military conspiracy but convicting only 16 soldiers, Custodio the highest ranking. Perhaps a concession to the restive military that settled down only in FVR times.

That Ver and Olivas (and other culpable ones) got off scot free, and that there was no evidence directly linking Marcos to the killing — these do not reflect on the Agrava Board, rather, on the genius of the mastermind who planned and enabled the project : How to kill Ninoy and get away with it. That’s my theory anyway, after some research on what Marcos and the military were up to in the three years preceding Ninoy’s homecoming.

***

More in my Ninoy book, coming soon. This year, if I stop blogging. But these are such exceptional times. Even, desperate times for pro-Duterte vloggers, kaya nagkakalat ng fake history.

***

Suddenly in September, telltale times

It was surprisingly swabe and civilized, the turn-over by Chiz Escudero, and the take-over by Tito Sotto, of the senate presidency. After all, they belong to the same political party, i.e., the National People’s Coalition (NPC) founded in ’92 by the late Danding Cojuangco (of which Alice Guo was briefly a member not too long ago). May pinagsamahan, ika nga.

Quite a relief to have been spared histrionics from the Duterte bloc upon their demotion to minority status. By the time they found out, fait accompli na. Twould seem they got too big for their britches, especially after the archiving of the impeachment, thought the bloc too fearsome and formidable, and DDS vloggers too vigilant and savvy, to be outfoxed, outwitted, or outmaneuvered, much less caught off guard.

But that’s exactly what happened Monday as DDS senators and vloggers were reveling in, and cheering on, DDS Senator Rodante Marcoleta‘s  Blue Ribbon hearing that had contractor Curlee Discaya naming Speaker Martin Romualdez and Rep. Zaldy Co among those mired in flood control anomalies.

Tit for tat. Of course the House struck back the very next day: at the infrastructure committee hearing, former DPWH district engineer Brice Hernandez name-dropped demoted Senators Jinggoy Estrada and Joel Villanueva (na-double whammy rin sila) regarding 30% commissions from Bulacan’s flood control projects. Which of course the two senators vehemently denied forthwith on the Senate floor just before Ping Lacson‘s privilege speech that same afternoon which turned out disappointing for having nothing to say to, or of, the two senators so named.

***
Are the hearings a waste of time because the Senate and the House are not likely to investigate any of their own members no matter if implicated by the testimonies of witnesses under oath? The Senate has no prosecutorial powers daw kasi, it’s mostly in aid of legislation, but also, said Minority Leader Alan Cayetano, it’s also to “ferret the truth” such as in the ZTE, fertilizer scam, and Pharmally investigations. Umm. Noong ZTE it was whistleblower Jun Lozada who went to jail; sa fertilizer scam, the plunder case vs. Bolante was dismissed anyway; yung sa Pharmally, may nakulong ba o nabawing pera?

***
Meanwhile everyone’s on tenterhooks, anxious about when the next rains and floods will hit (konting ulan, baha) and angry irate furious about the failure of overpriced flood control projects, and how government has failed us big time, and how systemic and systematic the corruption in both the executive and legislative branches, which actually only confirms our long-held suspicions, except that we had no proof, they were all always covering up for each other, until ibinulgar mismo ni PBBM dahil sobra na, sabay pangako that heads will roll, iwas pusoy kumbaga, kaysa ma-Indonesia o ma-Nepal.

Because it’s rally season in the run-up to the anniversary of Martial Law, PBBM’s AFP and PNP must be on red alert, and this time the agitation is aggravated by a restive and blusterous DDS camp that’s looking for a rally to join that’s anti-corruption and anti-Marcos but NOT anti-Duterte. Together they hope to gather big enough numbers to oust PBBM and install VP Sara, which could increase chances of bringing Digong home. They got the ICC to postpone the Sept 23 confirmation of charges hearing, but only for a limited time while their experts determine if it’s true what Kaufman says, that Digong, 80, is “not fit to stand trial as a result of cognitive impairment in multiple domains.” Tipong limot-limot na daw, unable to recall events, places, and people, even family. But does it matter? What’s the law? What’s the history?

***
And meanwhile there’s talk of another Senate coup brewing, with Cayetano poised to take over. The Duterte bloc of 9 only needs 4 votes to unseat Sotto. Sino kaya sa majority ang liniligawan, ginagapang, na magbalik-loob? The Villars, I imagine, and maybe the other Cayetano, and the other Ejercito? But a majority of 13 would be even more manipis than Sotto’s current 15.

“Very devious!” Sotto tweeted Sunday. “Wala pang hearing ang Blue Ribbon ni Ping Lacson, gusto ng ilan magpalitan agad. What are they so afraid of?”

Afraid of being exposed, maybe? Because what if Lacson’s Blue Ribbon committee has the dope pala on the rumored billion bucks worth of Discaya flood control projects from 2022-2024 in Taguig? Cayetano country, no less.

***

No to cha-cha, YES to united front

August 11, Antipolo Rep. Ronnie Puno in a privilege speech called for charter change via constitutional convention, triggered by the “vagueness” of “forthwith” and Senate Prez Chiz Escudero‘s cavalier take that led to the delays and eventually the archiving of the impeachment. Pero natabunan agad ito ng same-day exposey by PBBM of the 15 top flood control contractors, among them (it was quickly revealed) one who donated P30 million to Chiz’s campaign kitty in 2022. Double whammy kay Chiz. Kumusta na siya.

September 3, the House of Reps’ Young Guns filed a resolution also calling for cha-cha via con-con to lower the minimum age for president and VP from 40 to 35, and for senators, 35 to 30, apparently triggered by a notion that it would work for young ones like the hugely popular heartthrob Vico Sotto who turns just 39 in 2028 which to me only means hindi pa oras ni Vico, huwag madaliin.

But the grapevine buzz is that Congress is serious and are moving on it, or something like that, amid coup rumors in both Houses. I heartily hope it’s all just talk, trying o distract us from flood and corruption issues. Because now is not the time for charter change. Maybe later, in a new admin led by an enlightened one who wins on the promise of a constitutional convention streamed live, and a multi-media information campaign so that the people will know what they will be saying YES or NO to in a nationwide referendum.

CHACHA CONCON
Besides, mahaba at magastos ang proseso — from election of delegates, to drafting of a new charter, to prepping the people, to holding a referendum. Back in March 2023, in response to House Bill No. 7352, the expense was among the concerns of the Makati Business Club:

NEDA estimates a Constitutional Convention would cost Php 14 billion to Php 28 billion. HB 7352 proposes 300 delegates who would get P10,000 per day, or a total of Php 3 million per day, or more than Php 400 million for the seven-month project. We believe these funds can be better used on agriculture to address the high inflation, transportation to enable Filipinos to get to work and home in much less time, and needed social services like health, education, and social security. https://mbc.com.ph/2023/

Pero sabihin pa nating pursigido’t desidido ang Konggreso. The only way it could happen very fast is not through a Con-con but through Con-Ass, where the two chambers agree to constitute themselves into a constituent assembly, and the lower house finally agrees to the two chambers voting separately. Ibig ding sabihin, kailangan ay parehong YES or parehong NO ang boto ng dalawang kamara for any amendment to pass into law. Which is so iffy.

Besides, it would be open season for all kinds of surreptitious insertions and deletions that dynast lawmakers and government officials have long pushed for (term extensions, foreign ownership, shift to unicameral federalism), at tiyak makikialam ang mga naghaharing-uri to protect their interests, as in the Quintero payola scandal noong 1971 ConCon.

Sabi nga ni Ronald Llamas in a sober panayam with the sophomoric subsaharan Richard Heydarian who actually thinks charter change might be the only way:

LLAMAS:  In principle I’m for a federal system but if you federate without the necessary minimum reforms, you are just federating warlordism, you are just federating concentration of power in the hands of a few, on the local level you will just be federating poverty. You need minimum economic and political reforms so that federalism would be much [more] real.

… Its about changes, [there are] minimum requisites before you change the constitution. Like, education is pretty basic, even congressmen don’t read the constitution. Perhaps even senators. So you have to popularize what you are changing and the proposals to change that. Usually the timing should be in the first half of a president’s term. Usually in the last half it’s tainted with suspicion that you just want term extension. You just want to change the system for vested interests. So if you start it early you have time to present, to educate, to do the minimum reforms necessary for changes in the constitution. They always use the excuse of economic changes but what is real is the political changes…

HEYDARIAN: Baka the right time will never come unless you create a sense of crisis… and maybe kicking off a constitutional change process by the trapos will activate the good guys.

LLAMAS: I doubt that will happen. … Because for now those who will push for charter change are the corrupt people of the present system … even, the most corrupt. You don’t even have a reformist in that group. So if you change the system, those who will decide about the changes will be the vast majority who are involved in the ills of the system you are trying to change. You want to change the system so that the ills will be mitigated, but the ones who will change the system now, if we do it now, will be the same guilty persons responsible for those ills.

Exactly. Whether con-con or con-ass, wala tayong panalo. If anything, dumadagdag lang ito sa gulo ngayong nagkakabukingan at nagkakaalaman na ng mga pasikot-sikot ng sistemang bulok na nagdadala ng karumaldumal na bahâ at karagdagang hirap sa taongbayan. As if life weren’t miserable enough.

LLAMAS. For me, the trigger is that the Dutertes may win in 2028. … This week there are lines being drawn for a united front. … So for now the trigger is 2028. If we don’t build a broad anti-Duterte front then the Dutertes will come and there will be hell to pay.

Yes. There are other ways to beat Sara in ’28. As in 1986, if the anti-Duterte forces and the anti-corruption movement, across classes and colors, can get behind one candidate, may panalo ang taongbayan.