Impeachment & budget blues, pre-2025

First they agitate us into thinking on and going along with moves to impeach the VP but now that complaints have been filed they are refusing to sign on — instead they’re continuing daw with the QuadComm hearings on January 25, which makes me think that the point pala (tilà) is not really to impeach (not too quickly anyway?) but to critique and weaken the Duterte brand in the run-up to May 2025 elections, maybe in aid of booting out some of Digong’s posse from the Senate?

Sino kaya ang timon? Is this inordinate delay part of a battle plan, or are they all playing it by ear, improvising as they go along, basta never losing sight of the goal, that is, to prevent a Duterte comeback one way or another in 2028. If the latter, that they’re improvising, then I imagine that more than one head is calling the shots, and  there’s a lot of secret convos consults going on behind closed doors, deals being wheeled for sure, and it takes a while for One to decide on anything, too many other heavyweights to consider, which would explain why it feels like we’re all hanging in the air about matters to do with government and governance in this Marcos restoration.

It would also explain why Congress’s 2025 budget is a mess (to put it kindly) with public monies being diverted to campaign ayudas for winning elections, instead of being spent in aid of supporting a development strategy that addresses urgent needs in health, education, and livelihood, in ways more kind and sustainable than dole-outs and ENDOs and other capitalist trickle-down tricks-n-treats.  Which would in turn explain the justifiable outrage and outcry over the unconstitutionality and immorality of it all.

Surely it hasn’t escaped the notice of palace peeps that the PhilHealth–DepEd-Budget issue has inflamed both sides of the Marcos-Duterte divide as well as the pinks and the yellows and the reds — at least that’s the sense I’m getting from mainstream and social media. Is this part of the plan, too, or was this unforeseen? If unforeseen, then nakakataranta siguro, ikot-puwet moments, for the powers-that-be. If foreseen but shrugged off because, maybe, matatabunan ng impeachment bigla, or something huge like that, e di wow.

Today’s good news is, PBBM isn’t signing the Budget on December 20 as scheduled. The prez needs “more time review the national budget amid criticisms over some items.”

Salamat naman. When the DDS are talking “people power” to oust him à la the matandang Marcos, it’s a mistake to dismiss it all as just “a lot of noise” which only reminds of PNoy who shrugged off critics as a “noisy minority” and we saw how his annointed lost the election in 2016.

Iglesia ni Cristo, 1986 to 2024

(Updated 13 Dec)

Natawa ako sa announcement ng INC agreeing with PBBM that the impeachment of VPSara is not a good idea, na siyempre ay ikinatuwa rin ng Duterte camp. It was like hitting two birds with one stone, like pamamangka sa dalawang ilog a la Sen. Imee.

Ayon sa census ng Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) noong 2020:

Of the 108,667,043 household population, nearly four fifths or 85,645,362 persons (78.8%) reported Roman Catholic as their religious affiliation. It was followed by Islam with 6,981,710 persons (6.4%), and Iglesia ni Cristo with 2,806,524 persons (2.6%). In 2015, these were also the top three religious affiliations in the country. https://psa.gov.ph/

INC is only the third largest religious community but unlike the Catholics and Muslims, INC practices bloc voting come elections, kaya naman masugid na liniligawan at sinusuportahan ng mga pulitiko.

Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) exercises a more extensive hold upon its 2.8 million followers. It tells them how to vote in every election and how to support or oppose specific laws and policies of the government. Members who fail to fall in line are sanctioned and, in the most serious cases, lose their membership.  https://www.manilatimes.net/

But history tells us that INC members are not always compliant, as In 1986.

… it was the late strongman Ferdinand Marcos and his wife, Imelda, who catapulted the INC, a minority church, to a position of parity with the dominant Catholic and the various Protestant churches. The Marcoses paid periodic visits to the INC headquarters in Diliman, Quezon City and were regular well-wishers at Erdie‘s birthday celebrations. It was also during the Marcos era that the Iglesia achieved phenomenal expansion.

The church stood by Marcos unto his twilight days. It directed members to vote for him in the 1986 elections and came close to seriously dividing its flock. Many members voted for Corazon Aquino, the Catholic Church‘s anointed. This prompted INC ministers to conduct a house-to-house visit of members to compel confessions of whom they voted.

“We did not want to complicate one error (voting for Aquino) with another, which is to lie about our vote,” an Iglesia member of over 20 years recalled. INC rules say that those who disobeyed the order should be expelled. But “they couldn’t do that because many voted for Cory,” said the INC member. “That would be a whole, big flock out of the church if you decide to excommunicate.”

Instead, church ministers asked errant members to write letters of apology to the church. https://web.archive.org/

In 1992 the INC endorsed Danding Cojuangco but he lost, came out 3rd of 7, bested by FVR and Miriam. But maybe only because Imelda ran, too, and came out 5th (besting Salonga and Laurel) which divided the Marcos vote and probably the INC vote?

In 1998 the INC endorsed winner Joseph Estrada but who was ousted in Edsa Dos in January 2001. April 25 to May 1, INC members gathered to protest Erap’s arrest for plunder and graft in what came to be known as Edsa Tres or Edsa Masa. Read “Church at the Crossroads” by PCIJ’s Malou Mangahas a year after.

A YEAR ago today, hundreds of thousands of poor Filipinos loyal to ousted President Joseph Estrada mounted a six-day vigil at the EDSA shrine.

Police officials say that most of the protesters—three in every four—were members of the pro-Estrada Iglesia ni Cristo (INC), a secretive, tightly organized church composed mainly of poor members.

… On May Day Eve last year, some 150,000 Estrada loyalists, many of them INC members, marched toward Malacañang Palace, rammed through police barricades en route, and for 12 hours, braved gunfire and truncheons with sticks, stones, and pure rage.

Hours before the rampage, Arroyo had appealed to INC leaders, who ordered their members to pull out of Edsa and return home. Many stayed, anyway. When the melee was over, four protesters were killed, three of them members of the INC; 113 were injured, including many church members.

Rigoberto Tiglao, who had just been named press secretary that week, recalled that Palace officials were surprised to learn that of the scores arrested, two-thirds were INC devotees. Said a Cabinet member who was privy to Arroyo’s negotiations with church leaders, “Walang isang salita ang Iglesia.(The church speaks with a forked tongue.) ”

… True, the INC is still bristling that Estrada, whom it supported in the 1998 and previous elections, had been ousted from office. “Minsan lang nanalo yung presidente namin, tinanggal pa nila (They ousted the only president who was supported by our church),” says an Iglesia member.
https://web.archive.org/

In the next four presidential elections, INC endorsed winners Arroyo, PNoy, Digong, and BBM-Sara. Which may be the basis of the propaganda that the Iglesia bloc vote determines winners, even if it is said to amount to just over a million votes. And even if it hasn’t quite worked for VPs — INC endorsed Mar in 2010 but he lost to Binay, and BBM in 2016 but he lost to Robredo.

In fact, it is a myth that INC’s endorsement guarantees a win.  INC usually chooses and announces its “annointed ones” about a week before election day, pag consistent at malinaw na sa opinion polls kung sino-sino ang most likely winners. Read Oscar P. Lagman‘s “The INC endorsement myth”

In 2004, INC delayed its endorsement of Gloria Arroyo until the week before election day when she emerged as being ahead of Fernando Poe Jr., the rumored preference of the sect, in the polls. In 2010, it switched from Sen. Manuel Villar to Sen. Noynoy Aquino five days before election day, when Aquino had dislodged Villar from being the topnotcher in the polls.

In 2019, it announced close to election day which 12 senatorial candidates it was endorsing. All were among those who occupied the top 12 spots in the last survey conducted by Pulse Asia that year.

An exception was its early endorsement of presidential candidate Joseph Estrada in the 1998 elections. That year, it endorsed Estrada for president months before the elections. This in spite of the fact that Estrada’s private life is the antithesis to the teachings of the religious sect. https://opinion.inquirer.net/

So, really, this INC drama of siding with both BBM and DDS against current moves to impeach VP Sara is a cease-and-desist signal based on an overblown sense of its influence that’s really just with regard to the two warring dynasties.

Recent meetings at INC central headquarters between INC executive minister Ka Eduardo Manalo and former President Rodrigo Duterte, accompanied by Sen. Christopher “Bong” Go on the one hand, and between Ka Eduardo and President Marcos, the first lady Liza Araneta-Marcos and their son Rep. Sandro Marcos, on the occasion of the former’s 69th birthday, on the other, tend to show the unique position of the INC in relation to the two camps. https://www.manilatimes.net/

And the threat of holding a nationwide “peaceful rally” only reminds of 2001 when INC rallyists were so quickly agitated by politicians into that mad rush to the palace. TEKA. Ano ba talaga ang politics ng INC? For nation ba talaga or for INC only? Where does the Iglesia stand on China? And Antonio Contreras is right–kung makikialam ang INC sa pulitika, eh magbayad sila ng taxes; otherwise, wala silang karapatang makisawsaw in matters of the state.

Kung tutuusin pati, what’s one million votes when a Leni endorsement would could mean some 15 million. Good that Leni and the Liberals are staying away from the fray.

A time to impeach

It’s crunch time for 19th Congress Reps who are reaping the consequence of the widely-watched QuadComm hearings on alleged culpabilities and betrayals of public trust by the Dutertes.  After agitating civil society so for the last three months, there is simply no justifying the claim that it’s too late to impeach the VP just because of the 2025 midterm elections coming.

Mas importante kasi ang kampanya? Then they should have put off the Quad project till after elections–bakit nagmadali? And now that the die is about to be cast, tila panic mode sila, lalo na yung mga umaasa pa rin sa boto ng mga ka-DDS, especially yung mga taga-Visayas at -Mindanao.

This is true, too, for the senators. Impeachment by the Lower House means the Upper House has no choice but to proceed with the trial, which means re-electionists will not be able to campaign as usual. Still, a trial means the Reps-Prosecutors and the Senators-Judges will be on TV every hearing day, which means free publicity. Ayun nga lang, if the defense wraps up and the court votes to acquit or convict before May 2025, magkakaalaman na kung DDS o BBM ang bawat senador, AT magkakaalaman na kung sinong papanigan ng mga botante come election day. Ito ang iniiwasan sana ng ating mga mambabatas, at ng palasyo na rin, it would seem, given how BBM has flipflopped.

Ang gusto nila, status quo, no change. Ang gusto natin, impeachment trial, at matinong pagbabago. Let the VP defend herself, ilabas lahat ng itinatago, let the chips fall where they may.

Yung kay Senator Migs, na divisive daw ang impeachment, at baka magkagulo–divided na nga po, sir. Mabuti nga’t yung mga nagra-rally for and against impeachment are all talking “mapayapang paraan”. Malay natin, baka ito pa ang makapag-unite sa taongbayan. And what about Senator Jinggoy–hindi naman daw gumanda ang buhay nung na-impeach ang tatay niya o nung natanggal ang matandang Marcos. Naku, sir, fake news ‘yan, no ifs or buts.

To think that neither Migs nor Jinggoy is a re-electionist in 2025. Maybe that’s why they dare speak up for the status quo? Nothing to lose?

A final note on the two impeachment complaints. Only the first includes betrayal of public trust for failing to condemn Chinese aggression in the West Philippine Sea. Which is not unexpected naman, considering that the second was filed by the Left, which has always been anti-U.S., but is it pro-China?  Eh ang Congress kaya?

I guess we’ll know soon enough, when we see the consolidated complaint. Hope springs.

Impeachment fizz & frenzy

Strangely, the DDS people power attempt seems to have fizzled out with the filing of impeachment complaints vs VP Sara yesterday — I’m not sure now what gave me the impression that it would fuel DDS wrath instead and swell their numbers. O baka naman they’re waiting for instructions from Harry, Trixie, and Maharlika who might be waiting for instructions from the Digong and the VP who may still be rethinking their strategies in aid of regrouping now that the process has been kicked off not by the Speaker but by civil society.

Meanwhile, as Congress takes time to determine if the complaints are actionable, the debate now is whether or not this is a good time — if there’s time — for an impeachment trial in the Senate. Many say it’s too late, Pasko na, tapos, kampanya na for May 2025; besides, ayaw ni BBM. Just as many say it’s never too late, na kung talagang gusto ng HOR, magagawan ito ng paraan.

Listening to pro-impeachment spokesperson Leila de Lima with Ted Failon today as she warned of a Sara presidency should anything happen to BBM, it was like listening to an Akbayan political pundit perorating on similar concerns to his cohorts on mainstream and social media last week, seriously dreading a Duterte restoration even before 2028. I wonder if this is who Cito Beltran was referring to:

Last week, as I surfed news and commentary programs, jumping from one station to another, I could not help but notice that several radio and online commentaries seemed to sound alike. It was almost like people were reading from the same book. Out of curiosity, I started asking my friends in media if some PR person had been going around making a pitch against the Vice President or to pour fuel into the fire, so to speak.

The first person I asked immediately and unabashedly confirmed my suspicion about the similarity in talking points and that someone had reached out to him as well. This of course is nothing new. It is common knowledge that PR firms or experts do the rounds to get the media on board concerning an issue and position.

Some appeal to a shared view, others ask help as a personal favor, and the desperate or well-funded offer 30 pieces of silver, so to speak. What’s interesting is that the PR was not a PR but a political aspirant.  https://www.philstar.com/opinion

Political aspirant nga ba? O Akbayan PR? Maybe both. But in fairness, if we’re talking about the same person, he is incredibly well-informed of goings-on behind the scenes, past and present, even from afar, sabay disclaimer that he knows anything or has anything to do with events unfolding. Quite an operator he is, and very much in his element.