In. the early days of Trump’s and Netanyahu’s madly unsustainable killer attempt to bring about “regime change” in Iran, two Manila Times columnists opined on our EDSA event forty years ago. “WAs EDSA 1 not an American project?” tanong ng isa, in effect saying, reminding kuno, na EDSA was a “regime change” event na pakanâ ng Amerika. Sabi ng isa pa, tiyak na may kinalaman ang C.I.A. sa snap election returns at dapat ay i-declassify ng U.S. government ang records of that event, now na, para magkalinawan.
Expected naman ang ganyan from loyalists who don’t think, or know, much of People Power circa 1986. So, dedma. Besides I was deep into browsing the internet, needing to understand the Trump-Netanyahu War for World Domination. Until a day or so ago, nabasa ko itong “Iran: Scenarios and odds” ni Stephen CuUnjieng, also of the Manila Times.
For CuUnjieng there is no telling how long Iran’s active resistance will last, which would depend on how much pain they can take, and that could be a lot and for long, given the successful outcomes of “asymmetric warfare” in Vietnam and Afghanistan. Also, depending on how fast its weapons stockpiles are depleted or destroyed. But regime change?
With the Vietnamese and Afghans, the effect was largely limited to their area and the cost to their enemy. Alas, with Iran, it affects the Middle East more broadly through the cost and supply of oil, and the social and political order in the region. The US and its ally Israel may find out yet again that when you throw a stick, it may be a boomerang.
As noted by others on regime change, it is hard to make work and has rarely worked when caused by an invasion. When it works like the Velvet Revolution in then-Czechoslovakia (now peacefully divided into the Czech Republic and Slovakia) and EDSA, it came from within. There can be help from outside, but the impetus for change and the alternative needs to be internally driven. As the Buddhists say, change comes from many countries, including China, which is one of our major suppliers of gasoline and diesel within.
Salamat nang marami, Stephen CuUnjieng! Indeed EDSA “came from within” and “was internally driven” — the Americans knew about RAM planning to kill and replace Ver and some of them approved, and they helped RAM with intel, but they had nothing to do with Cory or the civil disobedience and crony boycott campaign or Butz’s call for people to march to EDSA and shield the military from Marcos forces [Cardinal Sin echoed Butz only after a lot of dillydallying].
Two more points to keep in mind:
Besides the military cost, there is the economic cost in price, availability and activity of oil. Brent Oil was $59 on Dec. 17. On March 9, it breached (proper use of the word unlike in much of Philippine journalism as breach means to exceed with a negative connotation) $111, and as of March 11 was around $93, or a 57-percent increase in three months. Then there is availability as the Strait of Hormuz is basically shut down for shipping so there goes the supply chain. Many countries, including China — which is one of our major suppliers of gasoline and diesel — have curtailed exports to reserve supplies for themselves.
And this.
Bloomberg’s weekend email on March 7 quotes the excellent interview Mishal Husein had with Bernard Haykel of Princeton (available on YouTube) which was very insightful. He says there are three ways the war can end — “the regime could fall. It could stay but soften its stance and cut a deal with the US. Or it could simply hold on and survive — but “hardened even further in its determination to be a revisionist power.” The last one is the most likely.
To my mind, it all hinges in, on, Trump’s head. I checked out his astrological birthchart and I’m not surprised to find that he has Sun in Gemini (sign of the lower mind) opposed to his Moon in Sagittarius (higher mind) — he’s pronouncedly two-minded (if not multiply-minded) about everything, this and that, below above, maybe certainly, we did and we didnt, at nangingibabaw ang kababawan. AND his ascendant is on the cusp of Leo and Virgo, signs of the lion, the commander|performer and of the perfectionist.
Trump’s not as dumb as many think, just open to every game worth winning by elitist capitalist standards and more than well-connected enough to be untouchable, especially while he’s president, if he stays president. The Virgo in him hates to be criticized, and he is being widely and wildly criticized now for being goaded into this war that he cannot win, the Iranians are going for broke. So I pray na kakayanin niya to call a ceasefire soon, make a deal, give in some, surprise us all, change his mind as he has done before, maybe tomorrow, as I pray every night, surely long before the November midterm elections. Hope springs.