Category: money

andy agonizes, to resign or not to resign

now that the impeachment process has started rolling in the House despite the majority leader’ objections, and now that his fellow commissioners have publicly asked him to resign or take a leave so he can attend to his troubles with family, SALN, atbp., comelec chief andy bautista has to decide soon, and he says he will, in the next few days.

In a radio interview, Bautista admitted that he has reached a crossroad in his life where [he] is now weighing the interests of his family, the Comelec, democracy, and the 2016 elections.

clearly, family is not the primary consideration or he would have resigned already. so it must be the 2016 elections.  the grapevine has always alleged that it was rigged, that comelec and smartmatic connived to make LP win (mar, leni, the senate slate) except that in mar’s case, duterte was so far ahead, naging imposible nang talunin, which of course puts leni’s win, and our so-called democracy, into question, along with: how many votes did every one get ba talaga?

andy bautista has always denied it: no evidence or proof of cheating daw.  if that is so, then what is it about the comelec and democracy and 2016 that weighs on his mind more heavily than family?

can it be na totoo ang chismis, there was cheating?  which could mean that andy has been hoping that the beneficiaries of the cheating would could move heaven and earth to foil an impeachment attempt dahil sasabit din sila?  and / or maybe andy has been hoping to strike a deal with the duterte admin — leave me be and i will make sure you win the plebiscite on charter change and federalism?  is that too wild a thought?

alas for andy, an impeachment complaint was filed august 23 by former negros oriental rep jacinto paras and lawyer ferdinand topacio.

Apart from alleged misdeclaration in his statement of assets, liabilities and net worth, the complainants also cited as ground for the criminal liability of Bautista the hacking of the Comelec website that led to the leakage of voters’ database as found by the National Privacy Commission.

They accused him of culpable violation of the Constitution and betrayal of public trust in the complaint, which was immediately endorsed by three representatives… Gwen Garcia of Cebu, Abraham Tolentino of Cavite and Harry Roque of Kabayan.

the very next day, august 24, the house of reps’ secretary-general transmitted the complaint to the office of the speaker who has 10 session days to refer it to the rules committee that has three session days to refer it to the justice committee that has sole jurisdiction over impeachment cases.    

majority leader rudy fariñas, however, is being difficult.  puro hearsay lang daw, absent the personal knowledge of the complainants.

Fariñas underscored the importance of the verification portion of an impeachment document, which states that complainants must have evidence of their “own personal knowledge and/or culled from authentic documents”.

also, kailangan daw munang tapusin ng House ang budget deliberations, which he says wlll be around mid-september pa.  hmmm.  back in the time of corona, fariñas was part of a minority that didn’t sign the impeachment complaint.  today, it is said that it is he, not speaker alvarez, who calls the shots in the House.  read manolo quezon’s A Congress of cats

Today, the point person in the House is Majority Leader Rodolfo Fariñas, arguably one of the most powerful holders of that position in living memory. This is because Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez, even in his previous stint as a representative, was never a major mover or shaker and, aside from his closeness to President Duterte, lacks a track record of leadership or camaraderie, or a party franchise and independent means to quickly assert personal dominance in the House (in contrast to his predecessors and successors who were active party men before they assumed the speakership, like Manuel Villar Jr. who compensated for his lack of political ties with an immense personal fortune and by taking over the Nacionalista Party franchise).

in the year 2000 it took just 11 days from the chavit exposé that tagged erap as a jueteng lord (oct 7) for the house of reps to file a motion to impeach (oct 18).  in less than a month (nov 13) senate prez manny villar, upon obtaining the minimum one-third (73 of 218) votes, declared erap impeached and ordered the complaint transmitted to the senate without delay.  trial started dec 7 and abruptlly ended jan 17 2001.

in 2011 it took just six days since the PNoy speech (dec 6) savaging chief justice renato corona (seated just two meters away) for being beholden to former prez gma and for his foiled attempt to allow her to leave the country against the new admin’s wishes.  dec 12 iloilo rep niel tupas of the justice committee presented an impeachment complaint that a few hours later was signed by 188 of 284 reps and transmitted at once to the senate.  the trial began jan 16, ended may 29  2012.

in 2017 it’s taken 16 days for tish’s exposé to elicit an impeachment complaint. despite fariñas.  quick enough, considering that so much else is going on.  feels like a confluence of events coming up, and then again maybe not, yet.  the only thing i’m sure of is that we’re being asked to multi-task, to be vigilant on multiple fronts.  it’s a test.

no documents, no proof

now that paolo duterte’s name has come up as, allegedly, a player of sorts in the illegal drugs market, the senate hearing on the huge shabu smuggling under faeldon’s watch seems to be going nowhere remarkable, except maybe to demonstrate how impossible it is to get names named and personalities shamed and charged, puro “hearsay” kasi, walang dokumento.  and so when the prez says about the pagkakadawit of his son: show me the evidence, give me an affidavit, and i will resign (cool na cool), eh wala na, tapos na ang boksing.

imagine if comelec chief andy bautista were as cool-na-cool re wife tish’s allegations. instead he looks, seems, gets hot under the collar, the same with his kuya martin.  i suppose because nga of all those documents that tish found and that are now under scrutiny by the authorities.  even if he were innocent, he has a lot of explaining to do, and really he has no one to blame but himself.  given the animosity pala between him and his wife, it’s hard to believe how careless he was with such important documents, atbp.  it tells me that he became too sure of himself (hubris) and of his power over his wife (money).

anyway manolo quezon raises a good point.

…it’s not as if the common-sense solution for anyone desiring to exonerate themselves isn’t clear. With so many officials, elected or not, weighing in, the obvious solution seems curiously absent so far: Bautista signing a waiver to all his bank accounts.

the yellow camp believes, hopes, prays that chief andy will be found innocent, of course.  unless he’s guilty beyond reasonable doubt.  then, next we pray that duterte finds and appoints a rare one who is relatively beyond reproach, both at home and at work, and who will get us out of the pocket of smartmatic.

dirty linen, dirty elections?

natabunan nang bonggang bongga ang customs probe sa lower house kahapon, and not because faeldon the chief didn’t show up, rather because of a corruption bomb exploded by patricia cruz bautista, estranged wife of COMELEC chief andres bautista.

imagine.  tish accuses andy of undeclared unexplained hidden wealth in the hundreds of millions, if not a billion bucks php, and she has all sorts of official documents daw, including bank passbooks, to support her allegations.  read her affidavit here.

andy denies any wrongdoing, of course, he was rich na even before the PCGG and COMELEC gigs, but maybe not that rich?  because he’s disowning some of the bank deposits, some of the assets belongs daw to his parents and sibs, and some, he alleges, could have been faked.  he also says that tish has a long-time lover and the couple has a political agenda, omg.  to discredit the 2016 elections?

nabuhayan bigla ang bongbong camp  atbp. na feeling-cheated pa rin by…ummm….the yellow camp?  smartmatic?  COMELEC?  all of the above?  no wonder andy was always siding with smartmatic no matter what the controversy?  ooops not fair.  innocent until proven guilty.

andy says he’s the victim here, it’s all about money, tish is just greedy.  ang backstory ay, 2013  pa sila naghiwalay pero hindi magkasundo sa settlement of properties because daw tish has been demanding a large amount of money. 

say naman ng abogado ni tish, his client only wants what’s legally her due, that is, half of everything (legally acquired, of course).  but but but, it would seem that chairman andy doesn’t think she deserves that much.  during negotiations, ayon kay atty martin loon, chairman andy said “that his wife deserves zero.” 

ang tindi, di ba.  ang lupit, at ang talim ng hugot.

does she really deserve zero, as in, nothing?  surely not.  is he himself beyond reproach, if not at home, then at work?  we don’t know yet, but because of his very powerful position as COMELEC chief, we need to know whether he deserves our trust or not.

this is not merely a private marital spat but a public face-off between political camps that could have important ramifications.  chief andy should stop talking to the press and prepare his defense, seriously.  badmouthing tish isn’t winning him any pogi points.

Bad news for the peso

Amelia HC Ylagan

President Rodrigo Duterte’s first year in office was unfortunately marked by a devalued peso, which fell by 7.33% to P50.53 to the US dollar as of Friday June 30, from P47.08 on June 30, 2016 (freecurrencyrates.com, 07.01.2017).

When the peso declined five percent in September 2015 following China’s devaluation of the yuan, the Bangko Sentral/National Treasury “adopted a managed float that swung through changes in investor sentiments, rather than a dollar peg that is harder to defend in times of distress (The Philippine Star 09.15.2015).” The entire Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) has learned their lessons from the Asian financial crisis of 1997/1998 and the global financial crisis of 2008/2009 as they watched debt service and maturities vis-à-vis foreign exchange reserves, and diluted the effects of currency depreciations (Ibid.).

The exchange to the dollar had been below P48 for many years in the peso’s managed float (from 1993 to present) as it maintained price stability to sustain economic growth while keeping the peso convertible in a changing and increasingly interdependent world economy (The Philippine Star, 10.31.2016). But even a weak peso has both positive and negative effects on the Philippine economy, according to BSP Deputy Governor Diwa C. Guinigundo (xinhua.com, 09.09.2015). While certain sectors, such as exporters, overseas Filipino workers (OFWs), and the business process outsourcing (BPO) sector, would benefit from a cheaper peso, it would at the same time make imported fuel, raw materials, and other imported goods more expensive (Ibid.).

Leonor Briones, former National Treasurer and at that time back-to economics professor at the University of the Philippines (now incumbent Secretary of the Department of Education under President Duterte) said that the depreciation of the peso is “double-bladed” for the reasons cited by Guinigundo, adding that the government would need more funds to pay for the servicing of the country’s foreign debts which are denominated in US dollars (Ibid.). That September in 2015, the peso plunged to P46.93 pesos to the US dollar, its lowest level in more than five years (Ibid.)

But after just more than a year, the peso broke the critical level of P48/$1 and dived to a seven-year low. The peso was the worst performing currency in Asia vs. the US dollar, which was strengthen ing with the prospects of Fed rate hikes in December. The September depreciation of 4.1% was the worst monthly performance since October 2000, at the height of the political crisis during former President Joseph Estrada’s term. The peso was at its weakest in 16 years. (The Philippine Star, 10.31.2016).

Columnist Wilson Sy analyzed whether the peso is weak on its own or a victim of the US dollar’s strength. He concluded that “contrary to popular notion, the peso’s drop in September was not due to a strong dollar. In fact, the peso was a victim of its own weakness (Ibid.).” Foreign funds became jittery due to negative headlines, and pulled out. The peso weakness caused stock prices to fall, bond yields to go up and credit default swaps to rise. Foreign funds flying out and Philippine asset prices plunging across the board prompted investors to reduce their exposure to the Philippines even more, causing the currency to depreciate further (Ibid.). It was barely three months into President Duterte’s incumbency.

Foreign media was more vocal than local media in tying up the depreciation of the peso to Duterte. “The firebrand Duterte, who is often compared with Trump, has sparked concerns in markets not just for his erratic outbursts, which have included threatening China with a ‘bloody’ confrontation over disputes in the South China Sea (note: Duterte position pivoted 180 degrees as he now avoids clashing with China), but also for pursuing a ‘law-and-order’ agenda that has been blamed for a surge in extrajudicial killings. Murders allegedly have been ordered by the Philippine president during his tenure as mayor of Davao city (CNBC 09.27.2016.).”

Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s affirmed its BBB long-term rating on the country but made a significant inclusion: “We believe this could undermine respect for the rule of law and human rights, through the direct challenges it presents to the legitimacy of the judiciary, media, and other democratic institutions. When combined with the president’s policy pronouncements elsewhere on foreign policy and national security, we believe that the stability and predictability of policy making has diminished somewhat (Ibid.).”

The ratings agency’s warning spooked markets, Joey Cuyegkeng, senior economist for Asia at ING, said: “To make such concern an ‘official concern’ reinforced market’s guarded disposition (Ibid.).” Duterte (reportedly) responded with a profanity-laden speech complaining about ratings agencies and promising to create alliances with China and Russia (Ibid.).

And so on June 30, at the close of Duterte’s one year in office, the peso tumbled to around P50.5, threatening to go to P51 (tradingeconomics.com, 07.01.2017). It must have been seen coming, as core inflation rate increased 2.90% in May 2017 over the same month in the previous year, from a record low of 1.40% in September of 2015. Was all the monetary/economic upheaval some market risk-reaction to the declaration of martial law in Mindanao on May 23, and the reported growing numbers of killed, the estimated massive property, and moral damage to the country and to the people?

Outgoing BSP Governor Amando Tetangco said in May that it (martial law) was a “decisive move” for Duterte. “The main objective is to improve security as well as peace and order situation which should lead to even greater confidence down the road,” Tetangco told reporters (ABS-CBN News 05.24.2017).

Good news bears for the Philippine peso? So we pray.