Category: elections

Imelda (after) Marcos #Halalan2022

It is said that Ferdinand, and nation, paid very dearly for his love affair with Hollywood starlet Dovie Beams because he could not but humor Imelda at every turn of extravagance and political ambition ever after.

But was it just the Dovie scandal that turned Imelda into the power-tripping steel butterfly who fancied herself a highborn queen with crowns and tiaras and a palace to match?

Scholar Caroline S. Hau reminds that there was, too, the fact of martial law and, corollary to that, the all-important question of who would succeed the dictator Ferdinand.

HAU. The turning point for Imelda’s “rise” to power is arguably not the Dovie Beams scandal, but the declaration of martial law and the dictatorship that Marcos established in the Philippines. It is one thing to be the wife of an elected president, living in a country whose politicians are corrupt and enrich themselves at public expense, but with a free press that can criticize the president’s (and his wife’s) policies and actions and a body of elected officials to vet or else block the president’s decisions. It is another thing to be the wife of a dictator unconstrained by any institutional checks and balances, capable of putting rivals and enemies behind bars and stripping them of their assets, commanding an army to arrest anybody given the suspension of the writ of habeas corpus, and helping himself to the nation’s funds and taking over various industries and turning them into personal expense accounts for himself, his wife and relatives, and his cronies and political allies.

Any number of explanations can be offered to account for Imelda’s growing clout in the martial law government, but the most important is regime maintenance, the desire of Marcos to keep himself, his closest kin, and his most trusted people in power for as long as he could. Ferdinand’s deteriorating health, the knowledge that his children were neither old nor experienced enough to “inherit” his position, the suspicion shared by all dictators that their lieutenants–especially those with strong connections to the military such as Executive Secretary Alejandro Melchor Jr. and Minister of Defense Enrile–were conspiring to build thier own power bases and ultimately dislodge the dictator in a coup d’etat: all of these would have had salience in determining (as well as upsetting) the “balance of favor” through which Marcos managed his dictatorship.

Imelda metamorphosed into the “Steel Butterfly” because she could do so and did so from 1972 onwards: there would be no institutional mechanism to hold her decisions and actions to public accountability, and there would be no one, not even an increasingly debilitated Ferdinand, to stop her from doing what she wanted. [Dovie Beams and Philippine Politics: A President’s Scandalous Affair and First Lady Power on the Eve of Martial Law. Philippine Studies: Historical and Ethnographic Viewpoints, September-December 2019. pp. 595-634. Ateneo de Manila University. p623]

I believe Ferdinand was already grooming Imelda to succeed him when he appointed her Governor of the newly-created Metro Manila Commission in 1975, and then Minister of Human Settlements in 1976, and Ambassador Plenipotentiary and Extraordinary in 1978.

He did not have much of a choice. Who else but Imelda could he trust with the children’s future. Who else but Imelda shared his dream of a Marcos dynasty “reigning for ever and ever” as in Handel’s “Hallelujah Chorus”.

This is why Ninoy Aquino, the only one who posed a serious challenge to the Marcos dynasty dream, had to go. ‘Yun nga lang, sumabit sa execution at sa post-production. Hindi bumenta sa audience ang storya nina Marcos at Ver na si Galman ang pumatay kay Ninoy sa tarmac.

The evidence of a military conspiracy was clear: a soldier shot Ninoy from behind, midway down the service stairs. The airport security had been so tight, Galman could only have been part of the military conspiracy to kill Ninoy and blame it on the communists.

Because the people saw through all the lies, na-EDSA ang mga Marcos. Poetic justice.

EXILE

The ouster in 1986 was totally unexpected, and unacceptable, to the disgraced tandem and their kids who had expected to live happily forever and ever in the Palace by the Pasig. To the (his) very end in September 1989, Ferdinand schemed and maneuvered for a quick forceful comeback, the surest way to bring back the good old days of impunity ASAP. But the coup attempts kept failing and he died just two months before the last, the biggest, the bloodiest, attempt which failed anyway because America played knight in shining armor to Cory’s damsel in distress.

I imagine that in the ailing Ferdinand’s lucid moments over those three years and a half when they were in Hawaii, and he was in and out of hospital, aching to go home, na paulit-ulit nilang napag-usapan ni Imelda, at napag-isipan nang malalim, exactly HOW to get the family back to the Pinoy future, with the patriarch’s luster restored.

No doubt Ferdinand continued to mentor | lecture Imelda on the ways of the law, and of politics, and of propaganda. Surely that famous line “Perception is real, truth is not” is a Marcos legacy, his very own political mantra passed on to Imelda and now the kids. It explains all the lying, all the denials, all the twisted stories, repeated endlessly over a decade on all media, so that people have started believing the bogus Marcos version of martial law and EDSA history.

BACK TO THE FUTURE

Looking back now on Imelda’s trajectory upon her return from exile, it is clear that she came home in November 1991 not just to face and plead innocent to ill-gotten wealth court cases and the like, but to work on denying and disputing all accusations of wrongdoing by her husband and herself, including the Ninoy assassination, if not in judicial courts then before the bar of public opinion.

And, let’s give it to her, the Marcos widow has done exactly that in the last 30 years, to the point that many decry the alleged persecution of the Marcoses and believe they deserve a second gig in the Palace.

BACK IN BUSINESS 1992-2016

She lost in the ’92 presidential elections but Bongbong won a seat in Congress as Ilocos Norte rep.  In ’93 she was convicted for graft but the case was on appeal so she was out on bail, praise the law, I mean, the lord.  Also in ’93 she lost the bid to bury Marcos in Libingan ng mga Bayani but at least she got him back home in Ilocos to display in a museum while awaiting more opportune times.  In ’95 Bongbong lost his first run for the senate but Imelda won the seat he vacated in Congress as Ilocos rep.  In ’98 she again ran for president but withdrew a few weeks before E-day and threw her support behind landslider Erap who ordered Marcos’s burial in Libingan ng mga Bayani (LNMB) even before he had taken his oath, but the outrage was so huge, the new prez backed off.  Consuelo de bobo: Imee ran for Ilocos rep and won the first of three consecutive terms.

By 2000 the campaign to free the convicted killers in the Aquino assassination, in jail then for some 14 years (counting from ’86), was in full swing, fueled by one of the convicts, Sgt. Pablo Martinez—one of 16 lowly-ranked officers serving double life sentences for Ninoy’s and Galman’s killings—who confessed in ’94 that he had been Galman’s handler, claimed he saw Galman shoot Ninoy on the tarmac, and named a general and a businessman identified with Danding Cojuangco who allegedly gave him and Galman their orders on the morning of the 21st of August 1983.

The story didn’t gain traction because Martinez was lying–Galman did not shoot Ninoy–but over the years, everytime August rolled around, media would keep repeating and speculating on the story, eventually succeeding in sowing doubt about Marcos and Ver as co-conspirators and throwing shade on Danding Cojuangco instead as the mastermind.  By the 20th anniversary of the assassination, the big lies had taken hold.

In 2005 Imelda Marcos threw her support behind Gloria Arroyo when the prez needed it most, after the Hello-Garci scandal, which must have counted a lot because in November 2007 Arroyo started releasing the killers of Ninoy and Galman after serving only one of two life sentences.  By March 2009 they all walked free, they had suffered enough, it was said; they might even be innocent like Marcos, it was also said.  In 2016 Bongbong ran for VP and almost won.  Imelda won anyway: Marcos got his hero’s burial in November, though behind closed gates.  In 2019 Imee won a seat in the senate.  And now Bongbong’s running for prez.

NEXT STOP, THE PALACE?

Imelda’s incredibly close to fulfilling the Marcos dream.  Can we still stop her | them at this point?

Our only fighting chance is to prevail upon Isko, Ping, and Manny to withdraw from the race for love of country—make the battle one-on-one as in the time of Cory.  With all of the opposition ganging up on Marcos-Duterte may panalo tiyak si Robredo.  Sa VP race, may the best man win—sana may bulagaan!

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Read Randy David’s “If Marcos Jr. becomes president” https://opinion.inquirer.net/151481/if-marcos-jr-becomes-president

 

Last minute #Halalan2022

Pains me to say this but am bracing for a [God forbid] Marcos edge [at the very least, and at my most optimistic].  Hindi kilala si VP Leni ng masa.  The monster rallies are representative of just a small sector of the electorate.  There are no Leni posters, only MarcosDuterte stuff, in many poor communities where the majority of voters are.  It looks like the Marcoses have got this sewn up.  Twill take massive efforts and funds for radical comms strategies — on the ground and in social media — in this final month of the campaign to move that needle.  VP Leni could make the rounds of palengkes and komunidads, too, with flyers and stickers atbp. to give out, and for people to take home and read and share with family and neighbors.  Tight fists with deep pockets should start pitching in.  Now’s a good time.  Win or lose, it’s good for the soul.  Good for the karma.  Hope springs eternal.  #Laban  #HopeImWrong

Last two minutes #Halalan2022

Imelda Marcos, 92, must be on tenterhooks.  We haven’t heard from her for a while now, but I like to think that she knows, sees, hears what’s going on, and that if the surveys are to be believed, tila panalo na si Marcos Jr., Oplan Balik-Palasyo soon to be accomplished, she must be so excited.

But who knows. Ang dami pang puwedeng mangyari. In Imelda’s place  I’d be on some happy anti-anxiety pill by day, and a sosyal -zepam by night, to see me through these next 60 days or so just because, you know, what if?  What if may talo pala, just like in 2016.

What if the kakampinks are right, that the monster crowds of VP Leni’s rallies are a sign that there’s hope of overtaking Marcos Jr. in  the surveys?

And what if other kakampinks are right who simply disbelieve surveys that find Marcos Jr. leading by a comfortable margin … who shrug off the big survey outfits as “bayaran” [as in “False Asia”] … who have this romantic notion that these surveys aren’t tapping the true pulse of the electorate (samples too small, not asking the right questions, atbp) … and others who think that survey respondents are just afraid to speak the truth but dare blurt out Junior’s name just to be pasaway.

What if, indeed.  What if Leni could still win it?  Then the current surge of engaged energy among young creatives aching itching to help, networking across communities, now moving on their own [funded by like-minded titos and titas] to both level up and level down campaign rhetoric in social media and on the ground – especially on the ground, including far-flung LGUs where only Marcos-Duterte posters are to be seen – can only help win this. Hope springs eternal.

Wishful thinking ‘yang balitang the Marcos campaign is losing steam, running out of money even. Aint gonna happen. Mas malamang na bumubuwelo sila for the final push in the last three weeks when they they pull out all the stops — all systems go, all hands on deck, all resources mobilized.

Expect no miracles except that which we can make happen if we act as one in these “last two minutes” when every effort, big and small, is focused on targeting that 31% that we need to convert to our side.  One major concerted action for the good of the whole, beyond what was done the past four months by the official campaign, might surpass expectations.

Sana magulantang natin si Imelda.

The Debt Trap

JAH ROSALES @alyasjah | PhilStar 4 Mar. JUST IN:

The outstanding debt of the Philippines hits a record P12.03 trillion as of January. This now stands as the largest debt pile that the country has posted in history. 

Lucked on this 11-point reaction of banker @Manny Gonzalez on Facebook in a @Boo Chanco thread.  In effect it disputes the Manila Times editorial where Central Bank governor Benjamin Diokno is cited as saying that Filipinos should not worry about the public debt.   

I’ve always worried about the public debt especially in relation to the automatic appropriation law for debt service, originally Marcos PD 1177. But there’s a lot more to worry about, and Gonzalez offers a banker’s perspective.  Plenty of food for thought before we end up (if we aren’t already) walking off that cliff.

MANNY GONZALEZ.  Back in the 1970s I was one of the very first bankers to nearly get fired over disagreements on how to gauge country creditworthiness. My superiors wanted to lend to Country X; I tried to veto the syndicated loan on the grounds that Country X had only one viable export (i.e., source of repayment for the loan). Guess who won. But I was wrong. Now the country has three big hitters in its export economy, and it runs a current account surplus (meaning in principle it has the means to pay down its debt).

1. Our 2022 deficit is roughly P 1.7 Trillion (P5 Trillion Expenses, P 3.3 Trillion income). This equals about USD 30 billion in round numbers, vs. current external debt of USD 110 billion.

2. The deficit will have to be funded with borrowings, or the government must print money.

3. Assuming we don’t just print money, the borrowings will have to be mainly foreign, because borrowing all of that locally (equal to USD 15,000 per living Filipino) would soak up liquidity and fiscally depress growth prospects.

4. Right now, borrowing USD 30 billion will not be a problem. Not because of anything about the Philippines, but because world interest rates are so low that institutions with money are chasing any investment that yields more than a US Government Note.

5. But this might not always be the case. The history of sovereign lending is that the money keeps flowing. Until, one day, it doesn’t. Then there is a massive devaluation and economic hardship.

6. Many countries you wouldn’t suspect have large external debts – Japan and Switzerland, for example. The difference with the Philippines is that Switzerland has a balanced budget and a current account surplus so lenders feel secure. Japan has a huge budget deficit, but a current account surplus, and such is its international reputation that investors see lending to Japan as a way of getting a few more fractions of a percent interest without much extra risk. Neither Japan nor Switzerland is in any imminent danger of having the borrowing tap turned off.

7. The Philippines, though, has both a current account deficit and a national government budget deficit. One or both of these need to be fixed or one day, at the drop of a hat and with very little prior warning, lenders will stop funding our deficits and not only that will want all their previous lending repaid.

8. This finally brings me back to the question no one in this country is asking: How are we spending that P5 Trillion (the national government’s planned expenditures for 2022). To recall my Country X, it spent its foreign borrowings more or less wisely, developing two viable export sectors from nothing. (Good thing, too, because its original export has withered due to world market conditions.)

9. How is our P5 Trillion being spent? 1/5 (equal to almost 70% of the budget deficit) is spent on NCR, where it costs (apparently) THREE TIMES MORE to give residents basic services, than any other part of the country. It costs more to provide water to Manilans, and will get ever more costly, as aquifers run dry; it costs more to protect them from criminals, given the congestion and squalor. We are even apparently spending USD 200 million to “improve the earthquake resistance of government buildings in NCR”. (Can you think of any government building in Manila in the past 100 years that suffered even USD 10 million damage? This is like hiring and paying a brain surgeon to tell you to put a Band-Aid on a cut. The remedy is 100 times more costly than what it supposedly avoids. This particular project is courtesy of the World Bank, which has become one of the most clueless organizations on earth.)

10. As for the rest of the P 5 Trillion, I couldn’t identify anything in it that has a clear chance of increasing tax collections or generating export earnings. They’re all just general hopes and wishes that if we Build, Build, Build (bahala na what we build), somehow GDP and exports will rise, and further down yet, someone will pay more taxes. Not bloody likely. MOST OF THE PROPOSED BUILD, BUILD, BUILD PROJECTS HAVE A NEGATIVE ECONOMIC RATE OF RETURN, ON TOP OF A NEGATIVE FINANCIAL RATE OF RETURN. That means they will weigh directly on both the government budget and the international current account balance. The Metro Manila subway is a SURE LOSER in every respect. No country in the world has succeeded in operating a subway system at a profit. Making a commute more comfortable or prestigious is not an economic “benefit”. Linking already-congested areas to each other is not “economic development”. A subway system is CONSUMPTION, not INVESTMENT. The same arguments apply to all these new airports designed to glorify local politicians. New York is one of the world’s very few cities with three major airports (LaGuardia, JFK, and Newark). Why does Metro Manila need FOUR?

11. By the way, the most indebted country in the world is Palau. It owes almost USD 1 million per living Palau person. That is because Palau listened to the Chinese government, and borrowed freely for its own Build Build Build. Until one day the Chinese asked to be repaid.

What is most tragic is that not a single one of our leaders, technocrats, or Presidential or even Vice-Presidential candidates, seems to have any opinion on the budget except to mouth that, sure, Build is Good.

We are walking off a cliff, and no one seems to understand that we are.