Category: binay

binay vs. binay-campos (the abby road)

listened to abby binay-campos on karen davila’s headstart.  my smpathies go to jojo binay.

this is what dynasty has come to.  abby says she worked so hard to do all the things she has accomplished for the city of makati, so it’s unfair that she’s being asked not to run for re-election, as in, paano na ang projects niya, something about a subway and free wifi, e baka di na matuloy, sayang naman.

crazy, right?  para namang hindi niya kapatid ang ibig makabalik sa puwesto.  bakit hindi itutuloy ni junjun ang mga project na nasimulan na kung para sa ikauunlad at ikaliligaya ng makati?  iyan na nga mismo ang rationale, ang advantage, ng dynasty rule, di ba, yung built-in continuity ng leadership ng isang angkang nagkakaisa, with the good of their constituents in mind.  but wait.  heto naman si junjun, saying the same thing, gusto daw niya tapusin yung mga nasimulan niya na apparently ay hindi itinuloy ni abby.  eh iyon naman pala.

life was simpler back when dad jejomar aka jojo, the original mayor binay, went national and became veep: the lines were clearly drawn, it seemed to me.  jojo left the mayor’s seat to junjun, abby went to congress, and nancy made it to the senate.  hati-hating kapatid, kumbaga.  ang kaso, into his second term, sometime 2015, nakasuhan si junjun sa ombudsman at na-suspend; saglit nakaupong mayor si oppositionist vice mayor kid pena.  noong 2016 elections, di pa puwede si junjun, dinidinig pa ang kaso, so si abby ang tumakbo in his place.  kaysa mapunta sa iba, di ba.  syempre, as with any dynasty, keep.it.in.the.family ang mantra.

perfect timing naman dahil kaga-graduate ni abby sa congress (one of two makati seats), three terms na, so ang asawang si luis campos ang tumakbo in her place, na nanalo siyempre.  kumbaga, bonus na kay abby yung biglang run-for-mayor-and-win.  ang problema ngayon, she’s enjoying herself much too much (and we can guess why) and simply doesn’t want to give it up / back to junjun now that junjun wants city hall back.  she practically tells junjun to clear his name first (or something like that) before going back to public service.  in a statement, meron pang:

… when she took over as mayor two years ago, Makati was “in a state of neglect and disorder… worse, dirty politics and shameless political patronage had taken their toll on basic social services.”

teka.  the year before she took over was the year when acting mayor kid pena couldn’t get anything done because binay supporters in and out of city hall were forever blocking him on every front imaginable.  dirty politics din iyon at dirty politics pa rin ang namamayani sa makati (like everywhere else), or at least that’s the maugong na chismis.

and now here’s junjun on headstart.  hindi pala siya bilib sa subway project ni abby, cute and fancy, but is it viable?  AND he reinforced some chismis i’ve been getting from three different grapevines about abby’s hubby who’s running for re-election sa congress, nag-e-enjoy din, I suppose, and abby doesn’t have the heart to ask for her seat back, pero si junjun kayang-kaya niya?

OR the chismis goes, okay lang kay campos na bumalik sa congress si abby but he wants to run for mayor in abby’s place?  junjun does not say it in so many words but he certainly says a mouthful.

…my father doesn’t like him, may mga issues with him, may nga nagsasabi sa father ko na may sinasabi na hindi maganda tungkol sa family. … I’m sure he has his own ambitions. Isa yan sa naging isyu dun sa ground. Naging isyu yan… my brother in law. Meron siyang iba ring agenda eh.   Which is, hindi namin gusto ang agenda niya, it wont be good for the city.

and yet jojo in his wisom has refused to rule, or even just remind, that city hall is junjun’s, congress is abby’s – the husband is abby’s problem.  i’m still trying to figure out why.

sabi naman ni rene saguisag who was with jojo sa comelec.

The other day Mayor Abby Binay filed her CONA. The day before, JunJun, her brother, did. Normally, one may say that the Binays and the Estradas enjoy the paradise of pedigree, but not this time. How I wish they could find a way to reconcile, but a Prez Duterte, Mayor Duterte and Vice Mayor Duterte?  https://www.manilatimes.net/cream-rises-and-values-dip/453983/

hard to sympathize with either binay or binay-campos.  much easier to sympathize with the poor people of makati, and of davao, and poor people everywhere in this benighted land, who aren’t really being given a choice any longer, kept largely without options, caught in the cruel trap set by dynasties who mean to rule forever.

tony lopez rightly asks, what has been the impact of dynastic rule?

Is it a coincidence that the Philippines has one of the worst income equality ratios in the world, that it is the only major country that failed to solve its poverty after the entire world solved its poverty in 2015, that in ASEAN, it has the highest poverty incidence, the highest unemployment rate, the highest inflation rate, the highest interest rates, and the lowest level of foreign investments?

no coincidence.  more like cause and effect.  political dynasties enrich the dynasty at the expense of the masses.  at the expense of democracy.  which makes ours a poor and fake democracy.

sibling rivalry, the abby & junjun show

it happens in the best of families.  siblings grow apart, each to one’s own life.  ideally the blood-and-flesh bond and the shared upbringing and values prove tight, and are passed on; ideally the family remains united across nuclear units, down generations.  but this is rare.  especially among families dealing with inheritance and entitlement issues, sincere sibling rivalries are not surprising, if not the norm.

in the case of the binays, we are seeing how bad it can get when sibs squabble over the mayor’s seat.  why can’t abby and junjun just take turns?   e kasi, hindi sila bati.  parang mga bata except that the stakes are so high.  each thinks he/she has the upper hand, abby because as far as she knows everything’s good and everyone’s happy in makati under her watch, junjun because he has supporters from the mayor’s office telling him it’s otherwise, pipol miss the binay PR that abby doesn’t have, or so it is said.

imbiyerna si abby, of course, at parang nakwerdasan.  kesyo kung me diperensiya pala ang palakad niya sa makati, bakit hindi siya sinabihan ni junjun, then she could have done something about it, or something like that.  and kesyo her brother forgets yata that he is banned from running for or holding public office, remember that graft case?  eh, teka, say ng COMELEC okay lang because the case is still on appeal.

so, binay vs. binay sa makati.  ay mali.  binay vs. campos, say ni junjun. (campos is abby’s married name, which no doubt helped win hubby luis one of two makati seats in congress.)  SEXIST! tili ni abby,  binay daw siya forever!  yeah right, but campos too, when it suits her.  no sympathy from women, i’m afraid.

the real question is, totoo ba na abby has dad jojo’s ok to run for re-election?  totoo ba ang tsismis na si abby ang favorite ni jojo, sorry na lang si junjun?  but we don’t know that for sure yet.  magfa-family council pa daw, say ni senator nancy; it will be a collective decision.

but ‘twould be interesting to see this abby-junjun show to a decisive finish.  kulang nga ba sa karinyo si abby?  may panalo nga ba si junjun?  it might even be kinda solomonic with a twist, as in, go fight each other, go make spectacles of yourselves, binay vs. binay, never mind how bad it makes the family look, and let the people decide.  my god, makati will rock and, maybe, crack, who knows.  maybe it’s how to undo a dynasty.

blitzing the binays

on august 20, just 45 days from now, it will be a whole year that the senate blue ribbon subcommittee has been investigating, pounding on, the binays, father and son, for alleged corruption and other sins.  the hearing on july 8 will be the 22nd.  in numerology 22 is the most powerful of numbers, for good or ill.

“We will come out with something very interesting. It will show the character of the (Binay) family.” Trillanes said it is important for the public to know how the Vice President and his family really are so they would be able to make a better judgment in the 2016 elections.

well, at least di na nagpapanggap ang trying-hard triumvirate that this is all in aid of legislation.  trillanes practically admits that this is all in aid of changing the minds of voters who support vp binays bid for the presidency, obviously in aid of improving the prospects of other wanna-bids.  basta the mantra seems to be: anyone but binay.  hmm.  i wonder if that applies to bongbong as well.

i get it naman, this picking on the binays to knock the vp out of the race, and decisively.  but why is it taking forever?  it took them just six months to impeach and pronounce chief justice corona guilty.  maybe impeachment was the way to go?  or talaga namang walang ebidensiya that would stand up in an impeachment court?  or marami palang binay supporters sa lower house so speaker belmonte did not even want to try?

but what truly grates is that natabunan na lang ang PDAF, DAP, mamasapano, MRT, at kung anoano pa, no thanks to media.  worse, cayetano, pimentel, and trillanes don’t really inspire confidence in the rightness of their cause, being themselves not beyond reproach, correct me if i’m wrong.

Is it the end of Binay?

Marvin A. Tort

With his resignation from the Cabinet last Monday, it appears to be the beginning of the end for Vice-President Jejomar Binay’s presidential ambition. Amid corruption allegations and ongoing investigations, his poll numbers are down. Based on the latest Pulse Asia Survey, he is now at second place in the 2016 presidential race with 22%.

Senator Grace Poe, who was elected to national office for the first time in 2013, has snatched the lead from him with 30%. Following Binay at third is Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte with 15%. And tied at fourth place are Interior Secretary Manuel A. Roxas II and former President and incumbent Manila City Mayor Joseph Estrada, both with 10%.

Also on the list are Senators Miriam Defensor Santiago and Alan Peter Cayetano, and former Senator Panfilo Lacson. Note that in Pulse Asia’s June 2015 poll, a relatively high 87% of those polled expressed a clear preference for a particular or specific presidential contender. Only 2.5% did not have a clear choice or had refused to reply.

Does this now mean that the Binay presidential bid is dead in the water? Not necessarily so. With 11 months to go to the May 2016 election, a lot can still happen. This can turn just as quickly as they did for Binay in the last three months. Just last March, he was still in the lead with 29%, and Poe was second with 14%. Estrada and Duterte shared third with 12% each. Since then, Binay and Estrada went down, while Poe, Duterte and Roxas climbed.

Pulse Asia had noted that during the survey period, the voting public was exposed to various news reports. Of these, in my opinion four items had the most significant impact on the survey result:

• Binay’s investigation by the Ombudsman and the continuing hearings at the Senate of his alleged corruption, including the freezing of his bank accounts by the Court of Appeals as requested by the Anti-Money Laundering Council.

• A Commission on Audit (CoA) report which claims that P670 million from 49 lawmakers’ Priority Development Assistance Fund and the administration’s Disbursement Acceleration Program, which were released through the National Commission on Muslim Filipinos, ended up in the hands of several questionable nongovernment organizations (NGOs).

• A meeting between President Benigno S. C. Aquino III and Senator Grace Poe in connection with the possibility of the latter running as President or Vice-President in May 2016 under the Liberal Party and the disqualification issue based on her alleged lack of residency.

• The exchange of words between Vice-President Binay and Senator Poe, with the former saying that the next Philippine president should have experience and the latter replying that quality of service and honesty are more important than length of service or experience.

Of these four, three had a negative impact on Binay, directly or indirectly, while the same three had a positive impact on Poe. Moreover, there was no significant pickup, either by the public or politicians, of the CoA report on more pork barrel funds going to questionable NGOs. This particular issue “died” a natural death, it seems.

Crucial here is timing, obviously. A seven-point drop for Binay from March to June is big but not unexpected. The timing of the CA order to freeze his bank accounts (which tend to prejudge his guilt) was significant. And so was the timing of the meeting between the President and Poe (which tend to indicate his possible endorsement of her candidacy.)

In the September 2014 survey, Binay fell 10 points in just about 10 weeks. Timing was also crucial, as the poll was held at the height of the media frenzy on allegations of corruption and hidden or undeclared wealth against him and his family (wife Elenita as former Makati mayor; and son Jejomar, Jr. as Makati mayor).

In particular, it was on Sept. 11, while the Pulse Asia survey was ongoing, when former Makati Vice-Mayor Ernesto Mercado testified at the Senate on Binay’s alleged kickback of 13% from each public works project in the city. He also claimed that bags of money were being delivered regularly to the Binay household, and that money would occasionally be received by Binay’s daughter Nancy, now a senator. The same September Pulse survey already showed Senator Grace Poe as the top choice for Vice-President in 2016 with 31% (up from 26% in June 2014).

Despite her 30% at present, I am not putting my money on Poe just yet. I sense that a lot of “research” is now going on, with her detractors looking hard for things or issues — no matter how small — that may be used against her in the “appropriate” time. Again, timing is the main consideration here.

In 2013, Poe and another Binay ran for a Senate seat at the same time. Poe got over 20 million (51%) to land at No. 1 in the Senate race, while Binay (Nancy) got 16 million votes to land at No. 5. Was this a prelude to 2016? Can we expect the same results when Poe goes up against Nancy’s dad in May?

In 1992, Fidel Ramos needed just 23.58% or 5.3 million votes to become President. In 1998, Estrada needed just 10.7 million votes. I believe that Binay has better chances of winning in a three- or four-cornered fight in 2016. Poe is likely to get the upper hand in a one-on-one with the Vice-President.

In October 2009, President Aquino polled at 44%, while Senator Manny Villar 19% and former President Estrada 11%. By May 2010, Aquino won with 42% of the votes. Estrada came in second with 26%, and Villar third with 15%. Also that October, Roxas polled at 37%, while Binay at 13%, coming in third after Senator Loren Legarda’s 23%. Binay eventually won with almost 42% of the votes, followed by Roxas with almost 40%, and then Legarda with over 12%.

Both Estrada and Binay surged from October 2009 to May 2010, by 15 and 29 percentage points, respectively. Estrada came in second partly because Aquino was a strong contender to begin with. But had Aquino opted out of the 2010 poll, Estrada would have been the likely winner. But Binay managed a win even against a stronger contender like Roxas, although he had no major “baggage” at the time. Also, in May 2010, Aquino got just 600,000 more votes than Binay.

Despite everything that has been hurled at Binay since last year, and while his poll numbers have dropped, his trust rating still went up. In the latest poll, Binay reportedly recorded “the only majority trust rating” in the quarter with 57%, up by 15 points from 42% in March. Aquino’s latest trust rating was 50%, up from his record-low 36%.

Binay’s approval rating is at 58% while Aquino is at 54%. The Senate as an institution, and where Senator Grace Poe belongs, recorded an approval rating of only 40%. This is higher than the House of Representatives’ 35%, but lower than the Supreme Court’s 44%.

Does this mean then that despite the corruption allegations against him as a former city mayor, people still trust the Vice-President? That people still perceive him as performing better than the President and other officials? That at this point, he is even more trustworthy than the President? If so, can he keep or improve on that trust, and can he turn it into votes?