Category: 2025

Vote for Senators who will Vote to Impeach

Calling on the Yellows, Pinks, and Reds of all shades.

VP Sara‘s impeachment is the most critical issue that should guide our choice of 12 senators on May 12. There are many other important issues, yes, but first let’s make sure the Dutertes do not make a comeback (a la Trump) and wreak national havoc anew with their dark and vengeful ways.

Let’s take the cue from VP Sara herself who has endorsed Imee Marcos and Camille Villar — kahit pa kadugo’t kaalyado ni PBBM — just because she needs at least nine (9) votes to acquit her in the impeachment trial.

So far, she can count on four (4) of the 12 senators still in the Senate — Robin, Jinggoy, Alan Peter, and Mark Villar — but only on two (2) re-electionists in Digong’s PDP who are expected to make it to the winning 12 — SWS‘s April survey has Bong Go in 1st place and Bato dela Rosa in 6th. Who knows when the ICC will get them. Meanwhile, that’s 4 + 2 = 6 votes.  https://pia.gov.ph/139544-2/

Sara may also be counting on Pia Cayetano (5th place) of BBM’s Alyansa who is expected to vote a la AlanPeter because they’ve always voted alike (korek me if I’m wrong). That’s 6 + 1 = 7.

She needs at least two more. And here’s where she’s counting on Camille, 11th place, and Imee, in 14th. That’s 7+ 2 = 9.  Exactly the number of votes she needs to be acquitted, never mind evidence of guilt.

But to be sure, she won’t mind getting more than 9 senators on her side, four (4) more, to be exact. With 13 votes — majority of 12 + 1 — Chiz could be replaced by a DuterteDiehard senator, which might explain why Cong Pulong Duterte has also endorsed Gringo Honasan, in 19th place, and Ariel Querubin, 29th (on Digong’s instructions daw). But maybe they’re really counting more on Willie Revillame (IND), now in 13th place, and Philip Salvador (PDP), 17th, na akyat-panaog sa surveys, pasok-labas sa magic 12.

ON THE OTHER HAND

To impeach Sara we need at least 16 Senators who will vote to convict.

So far we can count on four (4) of the Senators still in the Senate — Risa Hontiveros, Chiz Escudero, Win Gatchalian, and Raffy Tulfo. Not sure about JV Ejercito, Loren Legarda, Joel Villanueva, and Migs Zubiri, who could swing either way [again, correct me if I’m wrong].

Going by the SWS April poll, (not counting Pia and Camille) BBM’s Alyansa has seven (7) in the top 12 —  Erwin Tulfo (in 2nd place), Lito Lapid (3rd), Tito Sotto (4th), Bong Revilla (7th), Abby Binay (9th), Ping Lacson (11th), and Manny Pacquiao (12th).  [Pasók din si Ben Tulfo (IND, 8th) but who knows with these Tulfos, baka swing votes pala?]

I know, I know, the seven (7) are all traditional politicians and artistas, mostly even dynasts, to boot!  But hey, what matters at this point is making sure we get the 16 votes to impeach Sara. We can do it only if we stop with the romantic notion that we are doing right when we ignore the surveys and vote for the ones we like, basta, kahit nangungulelat at pihadong matatalo.

Hindi dapat ismiran o bale-walaín ang Pulse Asia at SWS just because di natin like o type ang inire-report nilang mga kandidatong most-likely-to-win. Pulse Asia and SWS have been doing this a long time, gauging scientifically the inclinations of a representative sample of the electorate at a specific points in time. Historically, their pre-poll survey results have proven consistent with election results.

In April 2022 Pulse Asia’s opinion poll nailed 11 of the 12 senators who made it to the magic 12. Ronnie Holmes promises a last report very early in May. Abangan natin, in case may significant differences with SWS’s April poll. https://pulseasia.ph/updates/april-2022

16 VOTES TO IMPEACH

There’s at least four (4) Senators still in the Senate who we can count on. And going by SWS, there are seven (7) BBM-Alyansa candidates in the top 12. That’s 4 + 7 = 11.  We need five (5) more.

Let’s choose from the ones who have a fighting chance because they’re not too far from 12th place:  Bam Aquino is in 15th, Kiko Pangilinan in 16th, Benhur Abalos in 18th. That’s three (3) + 11 = 14. We need two more.

Francis Tolentino is in 21st place but he seems to be another swing vote, could go either way. Heidi Mendoza is in 28th, France Castro 30th, Leody de Guzman 32nd, Luke Espiritu 34th.

It would seem that former VP Leni Robredo is on a similar wavelength. She has lately endorsed Manny and Benhur in addition to Bam, Kiko, and Heidi.  Hope springs eternal. https://www.inquirer.net/

LIST of 14
Choose 12

Benhur Abalos
Bam Aquino
Abby Binay
France Castro
Luke Espiritu
Leody de Guzman
Ping Lacson
Lito Lapid
Heidi Mendoza
Manny Pacquiao
Kiko Pangilinan
Bong Revilla
Tito Sotto
Erwin Tulfo

NOTE. You can remove the artistas Revilla & Lapid, or let go two of the dynasts, and still come up with 12. Plus at least four (4) still in the Senate would make a total of 16, exactly the number we need to impeach the VP. Share the list. Spread the word. #VoteToImpeach 

That ‘vangag’ video

Back in July 2024, the first time I saw it on Facebook, I laughed. Siya ba ‘yan? At ganoon ba talaga suminghot ng cocaine? At saan, kailan, na-shoot ang video na ‘yan?

The very same SONA day it was released by U.S.-based DDS vlogger Maharlika on social media, the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) pronounced it a “poorly designed deepfake video that can easily be identified using simple tools openly available online.” https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/

The next day in a joint presscon, the NBI and the PNP shared the results of their “video spectral analysis”: the ears of the man in the video [the tragal notch and the antitragus, both on the outer parts of the ear] and those of BBM are different. https://verafiles.org/

Brig. Gen. Ronnie Francis Cariaga, Anti-Cybercrime Group (ACG) director, said they had the same findings after an artificial intelligence detection tool revealed significant discrepancies in the facial features of Marcos and the person in the video, such as the size of the ears, shape of the eyes and nose and sideburns.

Citing their analysis, Cariaga said the video is fake and was created using artificial intelligence (AI). https://www.philstar.com/

VERA Files Fact Check went for an independent assessment, reached out to AI detection experts of the Deepfakes Analysis Unit (DAU) part of the India-based Misinformation Combat Alliance. Three tools — Sensity AI, HIVE, and TrueMedia — found the video to be suspicious, bearing traces of manipulation at multiple points of the video’s run-time. Read ‘Polvoron’ video crumbles, AI experts find traces of facial manipulation.

The DAU also shared analysis from their partner GetReal Labs, which was co-founded by University of California-Berkeley professor Hany Farid and his team specializing in digital forensics and AI detection.

“[T]he human ear is a fairly decent biometric. Because a face-swap deepfake is only eyebrow to chin and ear to ear, the ears can often be used as indication of a fake. Attached is a two-frame animation (1 screenshot from the video, 1 from President Marcos’s recent state of the nation address) in which you can see some differences in the shape of the ear. The structure of the face and the hairline also seem quite different.”

That was in Sept 2024 pa when Vera Files confirmed the PNP and NBI findings. Not that it ever stopped the DDS from screaming “b(v)angag!” at every opportunity, accompanied by calls for BBM to resign or for people power to oust him, like father like son. The most consistent and strident calls coming from the vlogger who released it, and former RRD spokesman now self-exile Harry Roque.

Not that they were ever able to raise the requisite crowds clamoring for the same, but they never dropped the advocacy either. In fact, the DDS patriarch’s surprise rendition to The Hague raised the pitch of the vlogger and the exile to hysterical heights so it did not surprise that the latest TRIcomm hearing on vloggers and fake news saw fit to acknowledge and go public with an affidavit by vlogger Pebbles Talakera that related what she knew of the video “para itama ang mali” — basically that Roque is behind it daw.

Of course Roque has denied it, accusing government of a “political witch hunt” and Pebbles of “fake news.”

Ang totoo: Taong 2022 pa ay usap usapan na sa vlog ni Maharlika ang polvoron video. … Isa lang ang sigurado: Ka-jamming ni Marcos Jr ang kumuha at source ng video, at ang taong ito na malapit kay PBBM ay ibinigay ang video kay Maharlika. https://www.facebook.com/HarryRoque/

Maharlika and Roque insist that the video is authentic, “no evidence of editing,” according daw to forensic experts who prefer to remain unnamed except in a court of law. Maharlika has long been daring the BBM admin to take her to court, charge her with cyberlibel, or something like that, if they’re so sure it’s fake. And many observers even agree, na dapat patulan na, or it might fester, or something like that.

Umm, but that would be, like, sponsoring her debut in mainstream media to which she has been denied entry so far — nauna pa nga si Pebbles. Which is just as well because hindi pang mainstream media ang lenggwahe niya, na nagiging medyo bastos at bulgar lalo na pag may kinakagalitan siya at na-ha-highblood. Wouldn’t it be wiser to keep her in her place?

Of course, it would be a different matter if she were to come back and face the music here. Mainstream media tiyak ang landing niya [bleep bleep]. At kung bitbit niya ang AI forensic experts nila ni Harry, it would be a blast to see them facing off with Vera Files‘ DAU experts.

I’d place my bet on Vera Files. I suspect that Maharlika’s “puting ahas” was pulling her leg, and she fell for it. OR maybe she’s always known that it’s a deepfake but it’s good enough for destab purposes? and for the DDS?

Korek si Bam… Ayos si Chiz…

It doesn’t surprise that Bam Aquino is being hit by both anti-DDS and anti-BBM peeps for saying he’s an Independent rather than Opposition, and that he doesn’t think the VP’s impeachment is an election issue. But I must say he makes a lot of sense.

BAM AQUINO. Galing akong Zamboanga, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac. Hindi siya issue nung mga kababayan natin. Ang issue ng mga kababayan natin yung pagkain, yung kakulangan ng tulong sa edukasyon, yung pagkalimitado ng mga trabaho, yung puwedeng makakuha ng ayuda na hindi binibigay nang patas….  Pag umiikot kami, yan yung binabanggit ng mga tao.

So palagay ko yang impeachment, mahalaga siya sa mga partido, mahalaga siya sa mga pulitiko.  Pero pagdating sa taongbayan, ang hinahanap pa rin nila, yung mga taong magtratrabaho para sa kanila, [on] issues na mahalaga sa kanilang pamilya at mahalaga sa kanilang pang araw-araw na buhay.

Pag umabot na tayo sa senate, we will be a judge, at siguro yung nararapat na gawin ay maging fair. Tingnan yung ebidensiya. Huwag kumiling sa kahit anong partido. At siguro nga maganda na may mga independent sa senado, ‘no? Kasi ang nangyayari, kapag may partido ka na, parang nag-judge ka na e, di ba. Pero yung independent, kaya talaga tingnan yung ebidensiya, kaya tingnan kung anong ipe-present ng prosecution at saka ng defense, at gagawa ng desisyon base lang sa ebidensiya, hindi base lang sa politika, o base lang sa kaibigan.

At aprub rin si James Matthew Miraflor, strategic information consultant at The Task Force for Global Health Inc. who sees it as a “smarting up”.

MIRAFLOR. Bam-Kiko as independent rather than opposition. Quimbos doing the Q thing. These liberal politicians (not necessarily from the Liberal Party) are only doing what it needs to survive in an electoral system that operates under patronage principles. It cannot be helped. They need resources from above to sustain their coalitions and machinery; else they lose to someone doing the exact same thing. Hence, they have to make sure that the incumbent coalition is not hostile to them while still keeping their base.

For me, it is a fresh sight to see these liberal politicians finally smarting up and doing what needs to be done to contest political power. This is unlike in the last decade when they were weighed down by a false sense of righteousness; as if they were no longer mere politicians but “statesmen” of some sort, unsullied by the grease of the machine.

Yes, smart to draw a line without being pa-righteous. Smart to eschew talk of impeachment when one might end up one of 24 judges. There are honestly creative ways for a third force to navigate a highly polarized political arena.

Gets ko naman where Sonny Trillanes is coming from, but no one is belittling the issue of impeachment. In fact, we all (except for some DDS) wish the Senate would hurry up — let the chips fall where they may — and it’s a relief to hear from Senate Prez Chiz Escudero, who’s not sleeping on the job naman pala: pre-trial concerns and requirements are being attended to with due diligence (the better to forestall future complaints), the Senate will convene as impeachment court once the 12 new senators have taken their oaths.

At least that’s what I gathered from his presscon this morning. Smart of him to speak and explain directly to the people via media, rather than engage in endless debates with legal luminaries who say the trial should start now na even if the Senate is on recess. Anyway, na sa Supreme Court na pati.

Although say rin ni Chiz, it will be the Solicitor General’s office that will respond to the Supremes’ request for comment to petitions, whether to compel the Senate to move ASAP or to direct the Senate to cease and desist.

Not that the Senate, if truly independent, can be compelled to do anything against its wishes. Especially not by a Supreme Court whose CJ and 12 Associate Justices are Duterte-appointed.  https://sc.judiciary.gov.ph/incumbent-justices/

 

 

Kampanya 2025 kicks off

I find that I don’t have the patience to sit through senatoriables’ rallies and debates just because I’ve heard all these promises before, all unfulfillable except in nominal dabs and spurts as long as the System holds sway, a problem media does not care to address.

But I did check out PBBM‘s speech at his party’s campaign kick-off after being told na super-palabán, panay ang patamà sa mga Duterte re tokhang, Pharmally, atbp., and I can’t wait to hear from the Dutertes, who we know can give as good as they get. Surely they have as much on the Marcoses as the Marcoses have on them. Pa-anghang-an na lang ng banat. Let the voters decide.

Which reminds me of a Facebook post going around, tumawid na sa Viber, at pinadala sa akin ng kapatid via text. Bilib na bilib ang nag-post sa Marcos-Romualdez “lightning-fast, coordinated takedown” of Sara Duterte “that leaves no room for counterattacks.” Tipong political blitzkrieg daw at its finest. As though the battle were already won, the VP is done for. Tanong ng kapatid ko, totoo ba? Is it over for Sara?

Premature the hallelujah, methinks. Nothing is settled. Magaling din ang kampong Duterte, huwag maliitin o balewalain. Ang dami pang puwedeng mangyari. The Digongs aren’t going down without a fight, in and out of the impeachment court, whenever.

Kamakalawa lang, sinamapahan ng kasong graft ni dating Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez et al. si Speaker Martin Romualdez atbp. over alleged insertions in the 2025 budget. And VP Sara’s unequivocal denial that she threatened to assassinate BBM, the First Lady, and the Speaker tells me that her lawyers might stick to the “conditional” argument, as in, maybe share with the public what condition/s led her to give the kill order — when was that exactly? — that she told us about, that she now denies. What exactly was going on then behind the scenes?

Meanwhile, that Bam Aquino (#5) and Kiko Pangilinan (#51) are Independent and not Opposition makes sense. Opposition would mean vs. the incumbent only. Independent means vs. both Marcos & Duterte camps. Good of former VP Leni to endorse the two. Kailangan natin ng kakampi, other than Senator Risa, sa senado.

On the ground, we could start sounding out the voters around us — we all have our networks, small and large, private and public, whichever side they’re on — and we could start pushing for Bam and Kiko: bawasan ang mga artista, at tama na ang isang Tulfo isang Cayetano isang Villar! Kung may puwang pa, itulak rin natin sina | kina Ka Leody de Guzman (#21), Luke Espiritu (#25), at Heidi Mendoza (#45). Pakisingit, paki-insert. Baka sakaling makalusot. #LetsMakeSingit