Category: 2016

marcos redux

no surprise that marcos jr. is running not for the presidency but for veep.  testing the waters muna siyempre, kahit pa naniniwala silang the marcos regime 1965 to 1986 were good years, better than cory’s, fvr’s, erap’s, gloria’s, and noynoy’s put together.  in fact, say ni bongbong, kung di nag-EDSA, we would be advanced and first-world like singapore.  LOL.  yeah, those were good years, the best years, even, of THEIR lives, i.e, the marcoses’ and their cronies’, in particular, no doubt about it, but of nation?

please naman, itigil na ang pagbibilog sa ulo ng taongbayan.  the marcos regime was more bad than good for nation, the promised revolution from the center did not materialize, we’re still paying for foreign debts that went into failed (looted) industries and white elephants like the bataan nuclear power plant.  and let me not get started on how oppressive, repressive, suppressive that strong-arm rule was, thanks to how marcos the dictator and brilliant lawyer crafted proclamations, executive orders, decrees, and amendments not only to buttress, solidify his (and his heirs’ and cronies’ heirs’) hold on, and everlasting entitlement to, political power (overt and covert), but to preserve and promote forevermore the interests of the ruling class, from the protection of landholdings to control of the nation’s monetary policies — laws and policies that continue/d to be invoked by, and to serve, post-EDSA administrations, from aquino to aquino, mother and son.  how’s that for irony.

I am very happy that I was born into the Marcos family. I congratulate myself for picking my parents very well. I have never felt it to be a burden. I have only felt it to be an advantage, a blessing and I am very thankful that I am a Marcos,” he said in a press conference in Quezon City.

faced as we are with the prospect of a marcos to marcos, from father to son, the line  “I congratulate myself for picking my parents very well” is worthy of note.  it would seem that bongbong believes in past lives and reincarnation  – only in occult/mystical thought is there a notion of the unborn soul choosing one’s parents and the circumstances to be born to in the present life.  but the concept of reincarnation is all about evolving, growing in wisdom, leveling up, as in a spiral of evolution.  for bongbong, since he chooses to follow in the footsteps, and avail of the attendant advantages of the legacy, of his father, then to evolve,  that is, to level up, to save the country from perdition, to fulfill the promise of a national revolution sa puso, sa isip, at sa gawa  would demand that he acknowledge and learn, first, from the mistakes, the failures, the sins of the conjugal dictatorship.  otherwise he is fated to repeat the patterns of corruption and violence set, established, during the rule of his parents, and we should be very very afraid.

meanwhile, on social media, the question still is, should  we visit the sins of the father on the children?  i’ve always said, yes, in the sense that, if bongbong is sincere about moving the country forward, then he should acknowledge such sins, and do what he can to make amends.  only then can we have a conversation about marcos times not being all bad.  only then can the nation truly move forward.  but, no, i can’t see any of that happening soon, as the imeldific one seems still to be calling the shots, and she could live forever.

donald trump & grace poe

i love the way donald trump is rocking the boat of the republicans, which suddenly makes me wonder if maybe i should be loving, too, the way grace poe is rocking the boat of the liberals so-called.

but then trump dares talk issues, never mind that he offends sensibilities with his political incorrectness.  poe for her part has yet to talk issues, baka pinag-aaralan pinag-iisipan pa niya, with a lot of help and input from her favored vicepresidentiable chiz escudero.  baka di pa tapos ang tutorial.

siguro kung di niya kailangan si chiz, siguro kung wala siyang chiz na kabuntot, kakayanin kong ibigay kay grace ang benefit of the doubt.  i saw that news report of her and chiz in  coronadal, south cotabato — on the invitation nga ba of NPC? is chiz back in the good graces of NPC because he has grace?

and in a short clip from her speech, some 24 seconds long, grace managed to mention chiz three times.

Ikinagagalak ko po na isa sa nagawa namin, kasama ni Senator Chiz, na dumaan at dumadaan na po ang BBL sa senado, gaya nga po ng sinabi ni Senator Chiz, ang mga probisyon dito ay kailangan nating pangalagaan.  maganda nga po ang national roads niyo dito  pero nasabi din sa akin ni Senator Chiz na marami pang kailangang gawin sa mga provincial roads.

ano daw?

as for teddy locsin calling idiotic the idea that grace should get some more experience muna in preparation for a 2022 run — for a while there i thought he might have some significant insight or info that would change my mind, but no.  as usual, he’s just being flippant, mocking, even satirical:

In our kind of government, which is modeled after the American, no experience is needed or asked for. Indeed, experience is what screws up your electoral chances unless you can hide it. Hillary Clinton has much to brag about and therefore much to be attacked for. Mar has served in the past 3 administrations—look where he is in the ranking.

As for the presidency, the job is easier than it makes itself out to be. It requires minimal intelligence to get by; though some cunning to get more done. It has an unlimited number of experts on call (and unlimited cash to pay them with) unless you prefer the company of friends. Even then, you’ll get by. And the media—from fear or for favor—will shower you with praises in the first half of your term.

You don’t pay for your mistakes; the country pays for them.

In the Philippine experience, nobody learns anything useful and good from serving in any administration, including not repeating the same mistakes. It is the same with any government experience, even on the local level: look at Binay.

locsin does not mention chiz at all.  in ANC’s coronadal report, walang sound bites from chiz even if he also gave a speech.  it’s almost as if he’s being ignored.  aray.  but that’s what he gets for piggybacking on grace’s popularity instead of standing on his own.

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http://www.philstar.com/opinion/518995/unraveling-chiz-escudero

Is it the end of Binay?

Marvin A. Tort

With his resignation from the Cabinet last Monday, it appears to be the beginning of the end for Vice-President Jejomar Binay’s presidential ambition. Amid corruption allegations and ongoing investigations, his poll numbers are down. Based on the latest Pulse Asia Survey, he is now at second place in the 2016 presidential race with 22%.

Senator Grace Poe, who was elected to national office for the first time in 2013, has snatched the lead from him with 30%. Following Binay at third is Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte with 15%. And tied at fourth place are Interior Secretary Manuel A. Roxas II and former President and incumbent Manila City Mayor Joseph Estrada, both with 10%.

Also on the list are Senators Miriam Defensor Santiago and Alan Peter Cayetano, and former Senator Panfilo Lacson. Note that in Pulse Asia’s June 2015 poll, a relatively high 87% of those polled expressed a clear preference for a particular or specific presidential contender. Only 2.5% did not have a clear choice or had refused to reply.

Does this now mean that the Binay presidential bid is dead in the water? Not necessarily so. With 11 months to go to the May 2016 election, a lot can still happen. This can turn just as quickly as they did for Binay in the last three months. Just last March, he was still in the lead with 29%, and Poe was second with 14%. Estrada and Duterte shared third with 12% each. Since then, Binay and Estrada went down, while Poe, Duterte and Roxas climbed.

Pulse Asia had noted that during the survey period, the voting public was exposed to various news reports. Of these, in my opinion four items had the most significant impact on the survey result:

• Binay’s investigation by the Ombudsman and the continuing hearings at the Senate of his alleged corruption, including the freezing of his bank accounts by the Court of Appeals as requested by the Anti-Money Laundering Council.

• A Commission on Audit (CoA) report which claims that P670 million from 49 lawmakers’ Priority Development Assistance Fund and the administration’s Disbursement Acceleration Program, which were released through the National Commission on Muslim Filipinos, ended up in the hands of several questionable nongovernment organizations (NGOs).

• A meeting between President Benigno S. C. Aquino III and Senator Grace Poe in connection with the possibility of the latter running as President or Vice-President in May 2016 under the Liberal Party and the disqualification issue based on her alleged lack of residency.

• The exchange of words between Vice-President Binay and Senator Poe, with the former saying that the next Philippine president should have experience and the latter replying that quality of service and honesty are more important than length of service or experience.

Of these four, three had a negative impact on Binay, directly or indirectly, while the same three had a positive impact on Poe. Moreover, there was no significant pickup, either by the public or politicians, of the CoA report on more pork barrel funds going to questionable NGOs. This particular issue “died” a natural death, it seems.

Crucial here is timing, obviously. A seven-point drop for Binay from March to June is big but not unexpected. The timing of the CA order to freeze his bank accounts (which tend to prejudge his guilt) was significant. And so was the timing of the meeting between the President and Poe (which tend to indicate his possible endorsement of her candidacy.)

In the September 2014 survey, Binay fell 10 points in just about 10 weeks. Timing was also crucial, as the poll was held at the height of the media frenzy on allegations of corruption and hidden or undeclared wealth against him and his family (wife Elenita as former Makati mayor; and son Jejomar, Jr. as Makati mayor).

In particular, it was on Sept. 11, while the Pulse Asia survey was ongoing, when former Makati Vice-Mayor Ernesto Mercado testified at the Senate on Binay’s alleged kickback of 13% from each public works project in the city. He also claimed that bags of money were being delivered regularly to the Binay household, and that money would occasionally be received by Binay’s daughter Nancy, now a senator. The same September Pulse survey already showed Senator Grace Poe as the top choice for Vice-President in 2016 with 31% (up from 26% in June 2014).

Despite her 30% at present, I am not putting my money on Poe just yet. I sense that a lot of “research” is now going on, with her detractors looking hard for things or issues — no matter how small — that may be used against her in the “appropriate” time. Again, timing is the main consideration here.

In 2013, Poe and another Binay ran for a Senate seat at the same time. Poe got over 20 million (51%) to land at No. 1 in the Senate race, while Binay (Nancy) got 16 million votes to land at No. 5. Was this a prelude to 2016? Can we expect the same results when Poe goes up against Nancy’s dad in May?

In 1992, Fidel Ramos needed just 23.58% or 5.3 million votes to become President. In 1998, Estrada needed just 10.7 million votes. I believe that Binay has better chances of winning in a three- or four-cornered fight in 2016. Poe is likely to get the upper hand in a one-on-one with the Vice-President.

In October 2009, President Aquino polled at 44%, while Senator Manny Villar 19% and former President Estrada 11%. By May 2010, Aquino won with 42% of the votes. Estrada came in second with 26%, and Villar third with 15%. Also that October, Roxas polled at 37%, while Binay at 13%, coming in third after Senator Loren Legarda’s 23%. Binay eventually won with almost 42% of the votes, followed by Roxas with almost 40%, and then Legarda with over 12%.

Both Estrada and Binay surged from October 2009 to May 2010, by 15 and 29 percentage points, respectively. Estrada came in second partly because Aquino was a strong contender to begin with. But had Aquino opted out of the 2010 poll, Estrada would have been the likely winner. But Binay managed a win even against a stronger contender like Roxas, although he had no major “baggage” at the time. Also, in May 2010, Aquino got just 600,000 more votes than Binay.

Despite everything that has been hurled at Binay since last year, and while his poll numbers have dropped, his trust rating still went up. In the latest poll, Binay reportedly recorded “the only majority trust rating” in the quarter with 57%, up by 15 points from 42% in March. Aquino’s latest trust rating was 50%, up from his record-low 36%.

Binay’s approval rating is at 58% while Aquino is at 54%. The Senate as an institution, and where Senator Grace Poe belongs, recorded an approval rating of only 40%. This is higher than the House of Representatives’ 35%, but lower than the Supreme Court’s 44%.

Does this mean then that despite the corruption allegations against him as a former city mayor, people still trust the Vice-President? That people still perceive him as performing better than the President and other officials? That at this point, he is even more trustworthy than the President? If so, can he keep or improve on that trust, and can he turn it into votes?

tricky times

medyo di ako makapaniwala na maaaring hindi si mar roxas ang i-annoint ni presidente aquino na kandidato ng liberal party sa 2016.  parang walang-utang-na-loob ang dating nito sa akin.  kahit pa sabihing mar had no choice but to put off his own plans of running for president given the clamor for noynoy in 2009 in the wake of cory’s demise.  because mar could have handled it differently, he could have resisted some, he could have tried to convince cory’s kids, and nation, na maigi kung mag-VP muna si noynoy, get into the groove, ika nga.

hindi naman kaila sa ating mga beterano sa bantay-pulitika na noynoy was kind of a non-performer in congress during his three terms in the lower house and half-term in the senate.  ang tsismis pa nga e kung hindi siya ipinangampanya ni cory at ni kris nuong 1998, 2001, 2004, at 2007 ay wala siyang panalo.

my favorite anecdote about his days in the lower house was told by no less than bff butch abad in some tv show after cory’s death but before he, noynoy, became a candidate for president.

say ni butch abad, a close friend of the family, nagkasabay sila ni noynoy sa house of reps (malamang nuong panahon ni gloria kung kailan usong uso ang televised debates and hearings).  kung minsan daw, tinatawagan siya ni cory, na nanonood pala, at itinatanong kung nasaan si noynoy, bakit wala si noynoy, and butch would daw say, baka ho natutulog pa.  or something to that effect.  of course such stories stopped the moment he decided to run.

bentang-benta kay noynoy noon, just as bentang-benta kay grace ngayon, ang notion na it’s now or never.  run while the clamor is insane.  but imagine if noynoy had run for VP muna and campaigned like hell for mar — tiyak, tumba pa rin si erap.  then he could have asked president mar for the mindanao portfolio, since napaka-dear-to-his-heart pala ang bangsamoro, and used the 6 years to quietly do his homework, due diligence ika nga.  what a powerpacked 2016 inaugural it could have been if he had surprised the nation with a report on his meetings with ALL factions in the autonomous region and he would be certifying as urgent his own draft proposal for a revitalized ARMM.

i know.  pipe dream.  water under the bridge.  right now, the question is, what is all this panliligaw kay grace poe all about?  is he seriously considering sidelining, instead of throwing all his support behind, mar roxas?  the more the prez keeps the nation hanging, the more i wonder if he might do a cory, who did not feel obliged to honor any promises made to doy laurel when he gave way to her and slid down to VP back in ’85-’86.

what intrigues me most though is that grace seems most receptive to the president’s advances — kilig to the bones? — even as she has started to echo the yellow army’s anti-binay sentiments.  what i really want to know is where she stands on chacha, especially proposed amendments to economic provisions.  or maybe we should be asking chiz.  argh.