Maliwanag, hindi “misunderstanding”…

Finally, a call for government to take the bull by the horns, deal boldly and decisively with China’s unprovoked attacks on our supply and repair missions to BSP Sierra Madre, among their other disgraceful depredations in our EEZ. It’s worth noting that FVR’s DILG Sec Raffy Alunan does not mention America at all, as if to say, let’s not count on them. The odds are against us, yes, but it’s about self-respect and national dignity.

The Philippines is under attack

By Rafael Alunan III

THE China Coast Guard mauled our Navy SEALs last week, who were sent in harm’s way with their hands tied. That prevented them from retaliating to “avoid escalation.” Salamabit, elite operators who are taught to fight and win, were humiliated in the process! It will embolden China all the more to escalate its attacks that have already injured our personnel and damaged our assets in our EEZ since last year. That happened alongside the BRP Sierra Madre at Ayungin Shoal. It had no protective cordon. What’s to prevent China from seizing the ship the next time around? It can be easily overpowered.

Will new rules of engagement be issued? Will a joint force be dispatched to protect our ship and shoal? Will our boys be able to defend themselves when attacked again by life-threatening weapons? Will we call for continuous maritime exercises in the area with allied forces? Will we replace the Sierra Madre, preferably with a larger one in good shape, and declare it as an EDCA base? Will we move forcefully to neutralize its POGOs, criminal syndicates, pre-positioned fifth columns and local collaborators? When will its maritime forces illegally occupying our EEZ and territorial waters be finally ejected?

The ROE should be crystal clear: Defend when attacked. Declare a 12-mile exclusion zone. If the Chinese breach it, fire warning shots to deter it. If they come closer, disable the threatening vessels. If they return fire, destroy the targets. But I worry about the fundamentals like OPSEC, strategy, doctrines, plans, communication, coordination, real-time situational awareness, decisiveness, intestinal fortitude, and crisis management. I hope this is taken constructively — our most potent weapon, the brain, is underused. We’re outthought, which is why we’re easily outmaneuvered and outfought. Our soldiers and the nation don’t deserve this.

The Chinese are gloating on their social media. “The conflict at Ren’ai Reef (Ayungin Shoal) on June 17 was a humiliation for the Philippine monkeys. The monkeys are a regular army belonging to the Philippine Navy Special Operations Group, NAVSOG. Their Instagram account calls themselves the Philippine Navy SEALs. This time, facing the Chinese Coast Guard, that is, the Chinese police force, they actually had their boats breached, their guns confiscated, and their boats seized. And seals? They are not even sea dogs.”

Let’s be clear. It’s the Chinese alone who are escalating the creeping invasion of our homeland, the occupation of our EEZ, and its attacks on our men and vessels with impunity because we choose to just stand by and show restraint. The world already knows who the aggressor is but is wondering why we haven’t moved to stop China’s humiliating abuses. We occupy the moral high ground to defend ourselves. Enough is enough. And, by the way, there’s no point in sticking to a “one China” policy when it doesn’t respect our sovereignty and sovereign rights. Bilateral relations are reciprocal, not a one-way street.

In August 2016, Chito Sta. Romana and I joined former President V. Fidel Ramos to help “break the ice” with China shortly after the favorable arbitral ruling was handed down. As the years passed, China’s treatment of the Philippines went downhill, from feigned friendship to patronizing to condescending to coercing to harming. It’s been dribbling the ball on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea because it’s seen as running counter to its “core interest” to be the next superpower. It demands from us subservience and foolish restraint while it keeps tightening its grip. It’s time to show some teeth.

Two days after China’s law to confront and arrest trespassers came into effect on June 15, our Navy SEALs were mauled right beside the Sierra Madre. Our naïve attempts to demonstrate peaceful intentions have had no effect on China. It has successfully blurred red lines and gray zones that we’ve been slow to comprehend. The gray zone in the West Philippine Sea, especially around Ayungin, Sabina and Panatag Shoals, now has a much darker hue. China appears intent on maintaining an escalatory path because it believes that we’re likely to just gawk and protest like monkeys, nothing more.

Apart from dispatching a joint force to protect the Sierra Madre, the president should order the immediate upgrading of all existing military infrastructure and war-fighting assets. Cybersecurity and anti-espionage must ramp up. We’re badly infiltrated and compromised. China knows what we’re thinking, saying and planning. Hot transfers of vital networks, systems and equipment should be obtained from friendly countries. The National Security Council (NSC) and Legislative Executive Development Advisory Council (Ledac) must be commanded to sustain legal and funding support. We’ve run out of time. We’re at the fail-safe point, and we must get ready to defend even if the odds are against us. It’s about self-respect and national dignity.

Here are other inputs for consideration:
1. Sanitize our communities, agencies and institutions of enemy agents.
2. Upgrade the Human Security Act and all laws linked to it to global standards.
3. Legislate a War Powers Act to enable the chief executive to fully protect the country.
4. Set up an Emergency Broadcasting System.
5. Stockpile essential commodities like food, medicines, tools, spare parts, etc.
6. Firm up civil defense for the safety, security and survival of our communities.
7. Redeploy OFWs from China, Hong Kong and Macau to other countries and here at home.
8. Downgrade diplomatic relations.
9. Ban tourist travel to Chinese territories.
10. Expand local defense-related manufacturing and services.

China has triggered so much anger and distrust that there’s no hope for normalization at this point. It’s been waging war for years that has reshaped the nature of warfare to gain a strategic advantage over the West. In our case, it’s because we occupy strategic real estate and refuse to bow to its ill will. It’s time to grab the bull by the horns. Politics must take a back seat to national security and defense. Our national interest must come first. Countries whose interests converge with ours are allies. However, allies should be seen as force multipliers, not as the country’s main defenders. That responsibility is ours. [Emphasis mine]

Rafael M. Alunan III served in President Fidel V. Ramos’ Cabinet as Secretary of the Interior and Local Government. He is a trustee of the Philippine Council for Foreign Relations.

Belated Independence, Say Chiz

So the high point of the day-after was the viral vin d’honneur video clip of the First Lady in white terno taking the Senate Prez’s wine from his hand, gulping some of it down, then handing back the glass with nary a glance at Chiz, sabay turn away to be served her own glass by a waiter who enters frame from behind just then.

My first reaction was: OMG why didn’t she have her own glass?!  And then: Hmm, close ba sila ni Chiz, and Liza wants us all to know? O hindi sila close pero uhaw na uhaw na si Ma’am and she was sure Chiz wouldn’t mind?

But wait, parang this all took place pala BEFORE the President’s speech after which he asked some 80 attendees headed by the diplomatic corps to join him in ceremonial toast “to stronger bilateral relations, the good health and prosperity of all present, and the continued progress of the Philippines’ —  kung kailan, at saka lang, the drinking officially was to begin.

Kumbaga, korek me if I’m wrong, the First Lady broke protocol by imbibing, on cam yet, from someone else’s glass yet, before it was time.

What’s the harm? Well, an occultist might say the good vibes of the toast may have been somewhat diminished, as in, nausog, napangunahan kasi, knock on wood.

At the very least, it tells the world that this Mrs. Marcos is not a stickler for protocol, whatever the consequences. Whether that rubs off on the Prez or not is, of course, up to him.

Naturally the anti-Marcos trolls are having a field day, kesyo Liza helping herself to Chiz’s drink without a by-your-leave sent the message that she “owns” him (or something like that) and, even, that it was the Palace that got him elected Senate president (or something like that), and siyempre nauungkat din na he is close talaga to the Marcoses because his father was an original Marcos crony (agri sector).

Thing is, Chiz’s dad did his part for the Marcoses naman. In 2011 Sorsogon Rep. Salvador “Sonny” Escudero spearheaded the campaign to bury Marcos in Libingan ng mga Bayani and got 204 (of 284) members of Congress to sign the Resolution, which no doubt was a factor (among others) in Duterte’s decision to order the hero’s burial for Marcos soon after he was elected president in 2016.  https://globalnation.inquirer.net/148397/148397

Kumbaga, may leverage din si Chiz. And baka naman puwedeng quits-quits na, as in, bayád na, clean slate na. Because Chiz needs all the leeway he can get to make the Senate even more independent and brave than it was back in the days of SP Salonga. We want him to succeed in shepherding his colleagues toward a consensus on, and heartfelt support of, what constitutes the “common good” … “common” referring to the masses, the majority, the people, and not the Senate, or Congress, or Judiciary, or the oligarchs or plutocrats, and certainly not the Palace.

Here’s a candid comment to Rod Kapunan’s Jun15 column “Escudero fixing Senate subservience, sanity” where Chiz is hailed for, among other things, suspending construction of the new senate building in BGC.

Maximillian80: That “waiter” incident in Malacanang did not make him look good and most certainly FL who unwittingly may have forgotten that she’s in a formal event with the eyes of media and voyeurs in attendance. Excuses and damage control made matters even more ridiculous. The body language showed who’s Boss ? Can Chiz prove otherwise? For FL, just do what GMA did by saying: I AM SORRY.  https://disqus.com/by/disqus_uELSsmv3Lx/?

Kung tutuusin nga, it’s Liza who owes Chiz now, and he can be the gentleman who calls it quits just so he can truly move on and show us what the second generation is made of.

I’m not sure though about a GMA kind of I-AM-SORRY. Liza isn’t an elected official and maybe doesn’t owe us all an apology. Unless of course the diplomatic corps and our protocol officers at the Department of Foreign Affairs think she should, and dare say so.

#BagongPilipinasWalangPOGO

Caught some of Karen Davila‘s Hot Talk chat with Senate Majority Leader Francis Tolentino, the part about POGOs. Parang he tried to make it just about Alice Guo and her birth documents etc.  but Davila very deftly and deliberately got it back on track. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGAP4GoeX8w

KD. Alice Guo is no longer my issue. My issue really, the real issue, is POGO. It is illegal in China and yet it is legal in the Philippines. Why?

FT.  … There was a previous congressional imprimatur to authorize PAGCOR [to issue licenses] as part of a revenue- generation scheme for the government during the pandemic. … Regulation as total ban in consideration of social moral ills would have to be weighed.…

KD. Do you support a POGO ban, or are you for legalizing, regulating.…

FT. For a ban there has got to be a transition if we consider the thousands of locals that would be affected. I’m not talking of illegal Chinese but those [locals] displaced during the pandemic who were able to acquire work, college graduates from southern Tagalog and other areas… There has got to be a transition period… In the interim where do we place them, moving forward, how do we absorb them in the labor market. … I think the current idea of some of my colleagues is that it has to be phased in, perhaps two years, three years, before a total ban…. [wow such concern for some Pinoys, totoo ba?]

KD. How many Filipinos are really employed by legal POGOs?

FT.  … They run in the thousands…  BUT whether we’re talking of 10 thousand, 12 thousand, or even of 10 Filipinos, hindi naman tayo papayag na may sampung Pilipino na in these times hindi sa kanilang kagustuhan ay mawalan ng  hanapbuhay. May mga pamllya din po yun, kahit po yun lilima, lalo na ang mga kababayan ko sa Southern Tagalog, mga kababayan ko sa Cavite…. [yeah right]

KD.  …  BUT even if POGO is legalized, along with POGO comes human trafficking, prostitution. so we talk about giving Filipinos jobs, but that’s the return. So my question is, IS IT REALLY WORTH IT? There are many Asian countries that have already banned POGO, but not the Philipppines…

FT.  Ang ayaw ko lang ay mawalan ng trabaho ang ating mga kababayan…

Naku, G. Senador, di na bumebenta, lumang tugtugin na, yang ganyang justification: may mga Pinoy na mawawalan ng trabaho. Iyan na rin ang daing ng mga taga-Zambales at Pampanga nung isasara na ang US bases. But the good Senators of the 8th Congress agreed that the welfare of the whole, the common good, is more important than the welfare of the few.

Besides, the US bases and POGOs were bad ideas to begin with.

Tama si Karen. POGOs are not worth the taxes they generate for government, kahit magkano pa yan, dahil grabeng kriminalidad at korupsyon ang kaakibat.

Nakakagulat nga na walang urgency to ban POGOs outright, given well-founded fears of Chinese sleepers, spies, moles, and pasaways likely infiltrating and influencing our communities, politics, economics, the bureaucracy, government.

Finance Sec Ralph Recto aka VATman has said he has no objection to a ban but, like Tolentino, he doesn’t think it should be rushed.

Asked whether he would bring up the issue with the Marcos administration’s economic team, Recto said he planned to advise the group “at the appropriate time” within the year.

“Today, a lot of Pogos are not really Pogos. They are doing something else but we generalize and call on all the Pogos, so that must be studied carefully. I have to consult also with the Pagcor (Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp.) as to how much they are earning there,” he said. https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1949500/recto-on-calls-to-ban-pogos-no-objection

Kapani-paniwala tuloy ang hinala ni Ronald Llamas, aktibistang RJ na dating political adviser ni PNoy, kung bakit patuloy ang suporta ng mga pulitiko sa POGO. Check out Politiskoop https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=7113295538776740

BAKÂ pinondohan ng POGO … POGO politics, POGO economics. Kaya tikom ang mga bibig. … Paratíng ang eleksyon. Sigurado ako, 100 percent, papasok ang POGO money.

Makes sense. Pinondohan malamang ng POGO noong 2022 elections. Popondahan muli sa 2025 at 2028?

In fairness to Congress, there are ban-POGO bills at committee level in both Houses.

February 2024 — The House Committee on Games and Amusement, chaired by Rep. Antonio Ferrer (Cavite, 6th District), on Monday approved House Bill (HB) 5082 and House Resolution (HR) 1197, measures that seek to ban Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGOs) and declaring their operations illegal. https://www.congress.gov.ph/photojournal/zoom.php?photoid=5596&key=5082

September 2023 — The Senate committee on ways and means has recommended permanently banning Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (Pogos) in the country. Senator Win Gatchalian, chairman of the committee, said the recommendation was contained in Committee Report No. 136 filed at the Senate on Tuesday.

Ten senators signed the report.

Win Gatchalian
Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa
JV Ejercito
Pia Cayetano
Grace Poe
Raffy Tulfo
Risa Hontiveros
Loren Legarda
Joel Villanueva
Koko Pimentel
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1834185/senate-panel-recommends-ban-of-pogos-in-ph

Sana the 10 have not changed their minds.
And sana these 14 change theirs.

Chiz Escudero
Jinggoy Estrada
Francis Tolentino
Sonny Angara
Nancy Binay
Alan Peter Cayetano
Bong Bo
Lito Lapid
Imee Marcos
Robin Padilla
Bong Revilla
Cynthia Villar
Mark Villar
Migz Zubiri

BBM could take the initiative, announce it as urgent on SONA day, and spin it all he wants. I bet it’ll do wonders for his approval ratings.

Then again baka tabla lang, given the hymn & pledge order, but that’s another story.
#BagongPilipinasWalangPOGO

Bigas, Koryente, Gasolina — pamahal nang pamahal

Good to know that we are not imagining it, that government’s inflation figure — 3.8% in April — hardly reflects the inflation that the common tao struggles with on a daily basis in terms of the increase in prices, year on year, of daily essentials rice, electricity, and gasoline,

‘IN-OUR-FACE’ INFLATION
By Orlando Roncesvalles
Letter from Dumaguete

Rice, electricity, and gasoline

Electricity bills can shock, like the live wires in the 220-volt outlets. Doomsayers will have a field day, and cynics will peddle conspiracy theories even as we experience de rigeur brownouts. We need a superhero to deal with a blooming power crisis. Hmmm. We need a cha-cha fix.

The Dumaguete MetroPost reports that Noreco I and II bills show residential electricity has reached P14 to P16 per kilowatt hour, up by P0.87 and P1.40 from the previous month. The news raises questions about affordability and whether alternative sources such as residential solar energy or ‘mini’ nuclear reactors are viable solutions. The latest editorial in the paper advocates energy conservation measures. It left out going to a porch or veranda with a nice cold cocktail. The better to forget.

The bill shock is a ‘perfect storm’ brewed from seasonal demand and a higher supply price. These two phenomena reinforce each other, leading to a ‘double whammy.’ A third whammy is on the way. Why? Because bad luck comes in threes. Surely, I jest. Keep your fingers crossed on two.

A national official blames “the pass-through cost from the power suppliers.” The pass-through cost shows up as ‘generation cost’ in our electricity bills. This raises a more challenging question: Why are generation costs higher? Noreco II explains that these costs follow a seasonal pattern, rising in the summer and falling later in the year.

But there is no denying that electricity prices have risen. For decades, the story behind electricity prices has remained complicated. Is there too little supply? Yes. Do the power producers compete to lower the price? A few players dominate the market. Is there a problem of red tape that inhibits the entry of more players? Yes. Has government regulation over distribution utilities cut the costs charged to the consumer? We’re still determining. Is the exchange rate a factor? Only sometimes, because the peso fluctuates. Are prices sensitive to imported inputs? Yes.

The inflation issue isn’t just related to finances. It is also psychological. We are creatures of habit. The P500 bill was yellow and comfortable. The polymerized blue P1,000 bill has now become more commonplace. The value of daily transactions has risen faster than monthly incomes. We wish we were like the Argentines who bravely lived with inflation. Or like Henry Higgins getting accustomed to Eliza Doolittle’s face in My Fair Lady. Some search for an antidote in the crypto rabbit hole. The economists say it’s just another tax we cannot evade. Pay it and forget it.

While the educated elite may find an uneasy peace with the official inflation rate (see below), the common tao struggles. He can feel the prices of rice, electricity, and gasoline. These three commodities — called necessities — figure prominently in his limited budget. A measure of inflation focused on these goods is one that we can label as ‘anecdotal’ or ‘memorable.’ The number we get will stick to our brain cells even if the official inflation number does not.

The year-on-year price increase for rice was 21% in May. Local well-milled rice sold for P51.42/kg, compared with P42.50/kg a year ago. For electricity, the local utility (Noreco II) set the residential power rate at P14/kWh, compared with P12.79 in May 2023. This gives an electricity inflation rate of about 9.5%. Gasoline in the Philippines sold for P64.40/liter in May versus P59 a year ago. The gas inflation rate is about 9%. A simple average of these inflation rates is 13%. This memorable inflation rate is unbearably high. (Interestingly, the official inflation rate is much lower at 3.8% in April.)

But what accounts for the disconnect between the low official inflation rate and the high one for the ‘survival’ commodities? One possibility is that the prices of other consumer goods have not risen much or may even have declined. Someone from the Philippine Statistics Authority can explain. A further explanation is that the prices of these three goods are very volatile.

Does the disconnect even matter? Yes, for government officials who have to decide on mandated wage levels. The same goes for political leaders with a support base in the C-E classes. These voters suffer the most with memorable inflation. Economic managers also have to pay attention to the disconnect. They may become complacent with the low official inflation and urge the Bangko Sentral to cut interest rates prematurely.

The disconnect and both types of inflation will inevitably disappear. This is because economists assume or expect the relative prices between various goods to stabilize in the long run. The question of how long before both inflations converge is nonetheless uncharted territory. The answer will depend on how persistent the short-run factors, such as ‘shocks’ and ‘policy mistakes,’ are.

Can we forecast the inflation rate for the three goods in the next few months?

According to economists at the World Bank, the global rice market has been tightening. This is due to a ‘Niño’ effect and to export restrictions by the major rice-producing countries. Unless the government decides to subsidize the retail price or reduce the import duty on rice, we are in for a rough ride. Proposals to allow more rice imports will do little to reduce the local price. But at least there would be supply. So, no long lines to buy rice.

The world oil market and the peso-dollar exchange rate drive gasoline inflation. Even if the world price were to stabilize, the peso has lately been falling. For thinking purposes, we assume that the exchange rate stays where it is. The so-called ‘base effects’ will give us the near-term inflation rate in this scenario. Base effects mean that the inflation rate is calculated using current prices (P64/liter) compared with the average June through August 2023 price of P63.8/liter. This means that we can project a zero inflation rate for gasoline. Good news!

Electricity is more of a mystery. Taxes and subsidies can shift the balance between demand and supply. So can rule changes for the major players in the evolving electricity market. The entry of solar energy has ramped up with technological advances and lower prices for solar panels. At the same time, it is still government policy to push for economic growth. The net effect on the price level is possibly a wash, similar to what we might project for gasoline.

Electricity pricing by Noreco II could stabilize at P14/kWh. The base effect suggests an inflation rate of 12% (from an average price of P12.47/kWh for June-August 2023).

An approximate ‘base effect’ inflation projection for the three products in the next three months would be around 8%. This is based on zero inflation for gasoline and 12% for electricity and rice. Such a projection assumes an unchanged peso-dollar exchange rate. I surmise that inflation will remain persistent, like a disease that requires a lifestyle change.

All is never lost. Containing memorable inflation is no pipe dream. We can do our civic duty by changing our bad habits. Rice makes us fat anyway. We can reset the thermostats on our air conditioners and walk or ride bicycles. Our local governments can build nice sidewalks and bike lanes. We can also pray that the peso will strengthen. Civics are good. Honda thought so.

Some suggest that the government should impose price controls or targets. Never mind that such policies require subsidies and new taxes. They can also result in shortages and long lines. Will that be politically correct? Will the voters in next year’s election care? Time will tell. Space doesn’t know.

The Stoics claim that what matters is the line between things we can and cannot control. Aside from a renewal of civic virtues, memorable inflation is beyond our human ken. That is the province of gods, statesmen, and legislators. The official inflation rate is less problematic. It will remain within the 2-4% target range that the Bangko Sentral has set. That promise is easy enough to keep, especially if memorable inflation dissipates.

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Author’s email: ORoncesval4@gmail.com; Twitter: @ORoncesvalles