Falling chandelier and other omens

Inquirer Commentary 25 July 1998

Filipinos are a superstitious people. We see meaningful relationships between apparently unconnected events that happen to occur at the same time or in close sequence: the number 13 and the Estrada presidency, the chandelier and the inaugural, the chandelier and the number 13. It comes from an intuitive grasp of Carl Jung’s concept of synchronicity which, going beyond science (cause-and-effect), “takes the coincidence of eventsin space and time as meaning something more than mere chance” and which is the very principle underlying the use of the I Ching and astrology (among other occult arts) in making sense of “the essential situation prevailing” for any one person or group at any moment in time.

This is why we continue to be disturbed by the story of a Palace chandelier crashing to the floor just a few seconds after President Estrada passed beneath it. The President had just taken his oath that noon in Barasoain. He had just arrived in Malacañang that afternoon and was on his way to swearing in the new Cabinet officials when the chandelier crashed. Happening as it did in the first few hours of the new administration, it changed the quality and temper not just of the rest of the day – hitherto happy and hopeful – but of the rest of the presidential term.

Clearly, a warning. If it were not an attempt on the President’s life, then a warning of danger, of sinister human forces at play. If an accident, then of forces less menacing but quite as startling and disturbing. The message is, expect the unexpected, a pattern has been set.

The National Bureau of Investigation has since declared the crash an accident caused by faulty electrical wiring, but of course we refuse to drop it. Perhaps because we’re not convinced that that 70-kilo chandelier was not more securely attached to the ceiling than by electrical cables.

Unfortunately, no photographs or videotapes of the fallen chandelier and the hole in the ceiling have been released, which makes you wonder what’s really going on. Surely there were media around, surely pictures were taken. And yet media have been (and continue to be) kind enough to desist from printing or showing them until now. Perhaps it was not an accident after all, the investigation is still ongoing, better for media to cooperate with government and not alarm the public?

Would that media had been as prudent about declaring Estrada the 13th President of the Republic – which has proved just as scary, the number 13 being associated in the minds of Catholics with the Last Supper and the subsequent betrayal of Christ by Judas.

Estrada is the 13th only if we count all the presidents starting with Aguinaldo, including Quezon and Osmeña of the Commonwealth period, and Laurel of the Japanese occupation, and continuing with Roxas, Quirino, Magsaysay, Garcia, Macapagal, Marcos, Aquino, and Ramos.

But why count Quezon and Osmeña when we were openly still a colony during their terms of office, and why Laurel when he was merely an appointee of the Japanese invaders? And if we’re going to count Aguinaldo, why not the Supremo Bonifacio? By my count, including Bonifacio and discounting Quezon et al, Estrada is the 11th president. And if we count them all, Estrada is the 14th.

Again, you wonder what the media are up to. One moment they’re playing fast and loose with numbers, sorry na lang si Erap, the next moment they’re playing down a crashed chandelier, kawawa naman si Erap? It would help if we could get our facts straight so that we know what we’re really up against; only then can we focus our energies on countering the negative vibes, whether through prayer or political advocacy.

It would also help to keep in mind that the chandelier missed Erap, which was damned lucky – sinusuwerte talaga. And that in the horoscope of June 30, high noon, the Sun, symbolizing the government, occupies the Midheaven, the highest point in the chart, which augurs well for the republic, indicating a government that has the power, against all odds, to withstand opposition and fulfill its promise of Erap para sa mahirap.

Of course, what’s lucky for the masses won’t be lucky for the privileged few who have long enjoyed the care and protection of government. As some astrologers and feng shui experts already have said, the chandelier is symbolic of the rich, and shattered lights signify shattered illusions.

It’s the rich, the people who can afford (and who like) chandeliers, who will be most affected by the radical changes that President Estrada would need to institute to lift up the impoverished masses.

It won’t be easy, as current events reflect – change never is. But if the rich could rise to the challenge of reinventing themselves for the sake of the nation, and if Erap stands fast, guided above all by considerations of the common good, he could well be right: This could truly be the greatest performance of his life.

Edsa ’98: The Dating Game

Inquirer 3 Mar 1998

At least the level of discourse on the Edsa Revolution has progressed from simple stuff answerable by yes or no – was Cory in Edsa or not? did Ramos hesitate to join Enrile or not? did Marcos order the soldiers to shoot or not? were the Marcoses kidnapped or not? – to a real question: When should the nation celebrate Edsa?

As an astrologer with a fetish for correct birth times, I would say it depends on what we want to celebrate.

If we want to celebrate the defection of the military reformists which led to the display of People Power, then the 22nd it is. What time? Juan Ponce Enrile says 3 p.m., when (according to my chronology) he rejected Gregorio Honasan’s and Eduardo Kapunan’s suggestion that he escape to Cagayan and decided instead to make a last stand in Camp Aguinaldo. Fidel Ramos, however, might prefer a 6:45 birth time, when together he and Enrile faced the press and announced their rebellion. And then, again, if we’re going to be true to story of Edsa, which is all about People Power, I would push for a 9 to 10 o’clock birth time, when the people first got into the picture through Butz Aquino and Manila Archbishop Jaime Cardinal Sin.

But if what we want to celebrate is the inauguration of the new democracy ushered in by Corazon C. Aquino, then the 25th it is. What hour of the day? Corystas would say 10:46 a.m., when she was sworn in as President. Except that at the time, Marcos was still in Malacañang Palace and still held legitimate power. He did not leave the Palace until 9:10 p.m. and he didn’t leave Clark Air Base in Pampanga until 5 a.m. the next morning. Until either time, the old government was arguably still in place. Only when Marcos was really gone did the new democracy begin.

Actually we should be celebrating Edsa neither on the 22nd nor on the 25th but on the 23rd of February, when unarmed throngs stopped the tanks (the first of such encounters) at the EDSA-Ortigas intersection. That display of People Power, captured on satellite TV for all the world to see, not only rendered the tyrant and his army powerless, it also forced the reconciliation, for the sake of peace, of the two anti-Marcos camps (Cory’s end Enrile’s) that were poised to grab power. That mind-boggling manifestation of People Power between 2:30 and 4:30 in the afternoon of the 23rd – and none other – was the high point of Edsa.

So why haven’t we been celebrating that? Basically, because it’s taken this long for our political leaders to acknowledge that Edsa wasn’t just one big blur of miraculous events but a definite series of explainable events with a beginning, a middle, and an ed. There was no miracle in Edsa – no sick were healed, no water turned into wine, the sun didn’t dance, and the Marian apparition is all in the cardinal’s mind. Edsa was about ordinary people in great numbers who dared to confront, unarmed, the military might of the dictator and discovered in the process their extraordinary powers when united by a common intent. Walang himala! As it turned out, the formidable task of removing a dictator was well within a people’s power, and the Filipino people proved it in Edsa.

Everything that happened during those four days, from the Enrile-Ramos defection to the stunning debut of People Power to the Marcos-Ver escape can be explained. None of it happened by miracle. Enrile and Ramos, for instance, didn’t wake up on the 22nd to the voice of God telling them to drop Marcos and join Cory. They defected so that Enrile could challenge Cory for the presidency. Unfortunately for Enrile, the people wanted no other than Cory, and the rest is verifiable history, except that the defectors have yet to straighten out their twisted accounts, allowing instead the Church’s miracle myth to prosper.

The effect has been not only to diminish the people’s part in the Edsa uprising but also to place it beyond the reach of human comprehension and recreation. Unlike other peak human experiences, Edsa is one that we are not being encouraged to recreate in our minds and analyze and learn from. I suspect it’s a conspiracy (shades of Hillary’s right wing), deliberate or not, to suppress what may be perceived as subversive material.

But truth has a way of coming out. And hope springs eternal. At least now (even if it has taken 12 years) we are clear about a beginning, a middle, and an ending. Same time next year, we might even be celebrating People Power. For a change.

People Power Knocked Them Out

Inquirer 5 March 1997

Contrary to military lore, it was the people—not Fidel Ramos, not Juan Ponce Enrile, not Gregorio Honasan—who were the true heroes of Edsa.

The military defection was only a catalyst for the display of People Power. Remove the defectors, and some other catalyst would have come along eventually—perhaps a dramatic climax to Cory’s boycott campaign that was preempted by Edsa, maybe a coup d’etat of sorts in the business community (with the military reformists falling in)—and it would have worked just as stunningly.

But remove the people, and the defectors would have been wiped out. Remove the people, and there would have been no reconciliation between Cory and the reformist military. In essence, Edsa was a political exercise in conflict resolution brokered by the people.

The crucial conflict was, not between Cory and Marcos or between Ramos/Enrile/ RAM and Marcos, but between Cory and Ramos/Enrile/RAM. The two camps had a common objective, to oust Marcos and take over, but no attempts were made by either camp to join forces with the other.

With the people squarely behind her, Cory was supremely confident that she didn’t need RAM. She was convinced that on her own, through nonviolent destabilizing tactics, she could pressure Marcos to step down.

On the other hand, with Enrile’s and Ramos’s backing, RAM was supremely confident that it could remove Marcos by force and replace him with a military junta headed by Enrile. RAM was certain that the military establishment would fall in line and, eventually, the people.

That fateful Edsa weekend derailed both Cory and Ramos/Enrile/RAM, giving the people the break they needed to resolve matters once and for all. In Edsa, the people gave them no choice but to reconcile their differences and submit to the people’s will.

Cory had no choice but to reconcile with the same military that had caused her and Ninoy so much pain and suffering. Ramos/Enrile/RAM had no choice but to submit to Cory, a civilian housewife without experience in state and military affairs.

Edsa was too dramatic and decisive to ignore. Cory and Ramos/Enrile/RAM could not but bow to the people’s will, which demanded that they rise above their differences and begin anew, begin as friends.

It is said that the 50,000 to 100,000 people who left their homes and marched to Edsa that Saturday evening did so because of Jaime Cardinal Sin’s appeal over Radio Veritas that the people bring food and support to the rebels.

In fact, the cardinal had to be coaxed into calling Veritas and going on the air that first night. And it was only on his secondcall, and only on the insistence of Corystas, that the cardinal gathered the nerve to tell the people that it was all right to go to Edsa.

The cardinal’s sanction was important, but there were others—in particular, June Keithley, Cecilia Muñoz Palma, and Butz Aquino—whose endorsements were just as crucial.

An unabashed Corysta and popular TV host, Keithley gave the greatest performance of her life as the sosyal broadcaster turned rebel. Fiercely enamored of the reformists, Keithley had listeners hanging on to her every word and was the rebel military’s all-important link to the people.

Member of Parliament Cecilia Muñoz-Palma, a respected jurist and Cory supporter, was the first government official to call Radio Veritas and express support for the rebels. Her endorsement carried a lot of weight.

Ninoy’s kid brother Butz, the original street parliamentarian, was in top form. Defying his group’s decision to await orders from Cory, Butz went ahead to Camp Aguinaldo to offer his support to the rebels. It was Butz, calling direct from Camp Aguinaldo at 10:20 p.m., who first assured the people that the rebel military was prepared to follow the people’s will. It was he who first suggested a course consistent with Cory’s non-violent strategy.

Synchronous events: the people stopping tanks and Enrile crossing Edsa to join Ramos. The coincidence of the people’s peak experience with Enrile’s move indicates that there was more to the crossing than a simple consolidation of forces. Ramos had had earlier urged them to move but Enrile and RAM were reluctant to give up Aguinaldo and, perhaps more so, to give in to Ramos, who was by then perceived to be for Cory.

In a sense the dramatic crossing signified Enrile’s surrender to forces other than RAM, and it was as critical and momentous as the people’s encounter with tanks.

Just when things were looking good for the people, and just when Keithley was peaking, her stock rising with every scoop, she announced, mistakenly, that the Marcoses had left Malacañang. Unwittingly, Keithley played into what may have been a plot to discredit her and confuse the people. Though she rallied somewhat with the liberation of Channel 4, she never recovered the strength of her words.

Entertainers were quick to recover their show biz senses. Everyone wanted to do a June Keithley (in her happier credible moments). Once Channel 4 was liberated, self-serving ones took to the spotlight and hogged it.

It’s not clear who was in command, only that a group of entertainers, mostly TV stars and recording artists, was allowed to dominate the broadcast and wax euphoric hour after hour, which was terribly boring, and disappointing. But there was a warning up against leftists. And so political scientists, sociologists, historians, activists, academe, everyone intelligent, was suspect, except for the show biz clowns.

There were leftists in Edsa but they did not come as communist party members with an official agenda. They came as ordinary people and helped in the best way they knew how—improvising and manning barricades—giving nonviolence and peace a chance, and linking arms, even, with capitalists.

It is said that Edsa was not a completely Filipino revolution since the US played a major part in the abduction and exile of the Marcoses. They may as well cite, too, the help that the reformist forces received from the CIA in terms of information on Marcos’s and Ver’s moves and a direct line to the US ambassador.

Just the same, the Americans were only on the sidelines, as stunned as everyone else (Marcos and Ver, Enrile and Ramos, included) at every unexpected turn of events. The Enrile-Ramos defection caught the Americans napping. People Power knocked them out.

Just like with Enrile and Ramos, Edsa gave the anti-Cory Americans no choice but to heed the people’s will and clear the way for Cory.

Marcopper and media

Isyu 18 April 96

I’ve been monitoring the news on the Marcopper disaster (not accident) that killed two rivers and millions of marine life and which threatens the health and livelihood of the people of Marinduque for the next who-knows-how-many decades, and I’m afraid it’s hard to be optimistic for our environment and our poor, not to speak of future generations.

Take this. The waste spill started on March 23 – Marcopper stopped operations a day or two (reports don’t agree) later – yet newspaper headlines didn’t register the event until after five days, on March 28.

Why not? Is the information network so faulty, hindi agad nakarating ang balita sa Maynila? Or was the news deliberately suppressed by who-knows-whom to give the DENR time to consult Malacañang and/or Marcopper to consult Placer-Dome in Vancouver?

Then, again, maaaring nakarating agad ang balita sa Maynila ngunit inisnab muna ito ng media, mas sensational kasi ang burnt bodies kaysa dead rivers, or maybe they can’t handle more than one disaster at a time?

Kung sa Amerika nangyari ito, media would have screamed out the news immediately (hand in hand with more sensational news, if any) while government would have flown in the state’s best engineers to help dam the flow as soon as humanly possible, and both media and government would have been breathing down Marcopper’s neck to hurry, hurry, hurry. When you’re dealing with the environment, every second counts, every dump truck less of silt counts.

Think of it. That was 10 to 15 cubic meters (roughly three dump trucks) of mine waste pollutants roaring out of that damned tunnel every single second, unabated, for more than five days. At 85,400 seconds per day, that would have been more than a million cubic meters or close to 250,000 dump trucks of mine tailings emptying into those rivers every single day, from Saturday afternoon when the spill was reported to have started, to Friday at 10:00 a.m. when it was reported to have been stopped.

The bad news is, it wasn’t completely stopped pala, only considerably slowed down. Ayon sa mga taga-Marinduque, may seepage pa rin. (Probably 0.62 cubic meter per second, the lowest rate of spillage cited.)

It was another 12 days (April 10) before a Marcopper official went on TV with the good news – two days na lang daw, titigil na ang tulo ng mining tails in Makulapnit. I checked out the news two days later (and since), and nada, nothing, zero. Nary a peep from media on whether Marcopper had made good on its word or not.

Apparently, print and broadcast media perfer to watch investigations – like the DENR’s, the DOJ’s, the Senate’s and the Ombudsman’s – than to watch, and watch out for, the environment.

Sustainable development, please!

It’s a sad time for the environmental movement. After more than two decades of advocacy and struggle, tryingto raise public consciousness, trying toget us concerned about how our nation’s natural wealth is being extracted, exploited, made capital of, by private groups for private gain while 70 percent of our people remain poor, tila walang effect pa rin.

When it comes to environmental issues and disasters, we can’t quite summon up a real sense of urgency. Either we’re not very bright or we’re not very caring, or both.

A more intelligent people led by a more intelligent media would be demanding by now, after the Marcopper disaster, the repeal of the Mining Act of 1995 and the rejection of 67 new mining applications that, if approved, would take over at least 22 percent of our total land area, or 35 percent of our upland ecosystems. The DENR already has its hands full monitoring 16 large-scale mining operations plus some 300 small-scale ones currently in place all over the country.

A more intelligent and caring people and media would demand that President Ramos de-liberalize the mining industry and stop offering our patrimony for foreign investors to cash in on. There’s nothing wrong with saving some of our natural wealth to pass on untouched to future generations.

Meanwhile, there are other less destructive, more creative and sustainable ways for a cash-strapped government to raise money. Eco-tourism is obviously one of them. Environment-friendly and community-oriented na, sustainable dollar-earner pa. Too bad FVR’s Philippines 2000 isn’t New Age.

Marcopper’s misfortune

Finally, a few words on Marcopper’s line that the mine waste spill was an “accident” and, therefore, criminal charges are not “appropriate.”

An accident, according to my dictionary, is an event without apparent cause; it is unexpected and usually happens by chance.

The Marcopper waste spill was no accident. Marcopper’s waste spilled, not without cause, but apparently because Macopper’s waste-storage system was neither as five-star nor as fail-safe as it should have been. Tapian Pit, after all, was not made to hold or impound mine waste. It was originally a mining site; the tunnel was for draining water (from mountain pockets hit by miners) into the Makulapnit River.

When the ore reserves of the Tapian Pit were exhausted in 1991, Marcopper turned it into an impounding pit to hold mine wastes from the San Antonio Pit, the new mining site. Dito nag-umpisa ang problema ng Marcopper.

The drainage tunnel obviously had to be sealed solidly enough to withstand the pressure of millions of tons of mine waste bearing down. Ang nangyari, tinipid ng Marcopper ang semento at trabaho; tila yung mga dulo lang ang ni-reinforce. Natural, di nagtagal ang mga ito at unti-unting bumigay sa bigat ng mine tailings. Seepage in August ’95. Flash flood in March ’96.

Apparently it was in the process of an engineering intervention when Marcopper’s so-called accident occurred. They had bored a hole into the hollow part of the tunnel and were filling it up with more cement when the tailings came thundering down. Either they had waited too long before intervening or it was the wrong intervention.

Government engineers says it was the wrong one and the outcome was predictable. Naturally (not accidentally), the hole released captive air from the hollow tunnel, creating a vacuum that sucked in the stored wastes from above, and spilling the silt down into the rivers by the dump truck.

Marcopper may be right about one thing though – that the DENR knew about the tunnel. If not, how could DENR officials have known that nothing but water used to drain out of it?