FLASH THE L-sign for LENI!

Six days to go.

FLASH the L-sign for LENI every chance we get, people!

Ang L-sign for LABAN! ang nagpatumba kay Marcos Sr.!

Ang L-sign for LENI! ang magpapatumba kay Marcos Jr.!

Sabi nga ni kaibigang BOYU nang napanood ang “enthusiasm ng young kids” sa mga rally ni LENI:

“Bodes well for our country, whoever wins. Also happy to see them flashing the L-sign for LENI. This is still a potent anti-Marcos weapon… It should be FLASHED MORE NOW as the election approaches. The fight cannot just be on the physical plane. That’s powerful energy, coming from the kids. They are the connecting thread from the promise of EDSA to the promise of LENI. It is no mere coincidence that LENI’s name starts with an L and she’s running for president at this time when another Marcos is trying to take us over again.” #LeniKiko2022 #LetLeniLead

Bracing for May 9 #Halalan2022

The Leni-Kiko monster rallies continue to draw impressively bigger and bigger crowds, and a number of credible political pundits continue to believe that Leni can still pull off a win despite Marcos Jr.’s lead in the surveys. That is, IF we take advantage of the palpable momentum and push even harder toward including the fringes in this movement for change.

May oras pa, ang pahiwatig ni Ronnie Holmes ng Pulse Asia kay Karen Davila sa ANC News noong April 8.

KAREN DAVILA. Historically speaking, based on your experience, have you seen a dramatic shift in surveys in, like, 30 days?

HOLMES. I would say that it’s possible, it’s really quite possible. It would really depend on how each candidate would really change their strategy, intensify their campaign. The last 30 days is like the last 2 minutes of a basketball game. The other team might be leading 12 to 15 points, the last 2 minutes is a crucial thing. If someone shoots five 3-pointers, the game… it’s tied.

So it’s not a question of whether the race is done, you still have 30 days. Those 30 days of campaign will be crucial. It might be best for some candidates to look back in term of their messages, how it can be refined and trying to escalate activities that will generate public support for their candidacy.

Parang Leni-Kiko camp mismo ang pinaparinggan ni Holmes, at sana nakikinig sina Bam Aquino, sana they go beyond the bongga rallies, do the rounds of public markets and factories, apart from house-to-house ikot-sa-barangay.  Ninoy Aquino’s campaign strategy in 1965 when he ran for and placed 2nd (of 8) in the senatorial race, as told by Nick Joaquin in The Aquinos of Tarlac (1983) pages 313-316, might inspire, kahit last minute.

On another front, La Salle Prof. Julio Teehankee told Karmina Constantino in a Dateline: Philippines interview [ANC 4 April] that he  thinks it’s time for something drastic, which sounds like Davila’s “dramatic shift”.

TEEHANKEE.  The frontrunner is sitting pretty just waiting for Election Day to happen, so unless something drastic, you know, some major earthshaking event will happen between now and Election Day…  Time is running out, and he has a comfortable lead. So something must happen to move the needle in favor of those challenging the frontrunner.

KC. Is that pointing to some sort of consolidation, and now is the time to do it?

TEEHANKEE.  It’s now or never. I think those who are seriously thinking of the future of the country should [follow] the lead of similar individuals in history. They must do a Day Laurel or even a Mar Roxas at this point.

Unfortunately Isko, Ping, and Manny do not seem to be up to the sacrifice. And it’s understandable. VP Doy Laurel may have later regretted giving way to Cory in ’86 because he and Cory didn’t get along at all post-EDSA, and he ended up sidelined and ridiculed. I bet Mar Roxas regretted giving way to PNoy, settling for a VP run and waiting for his turn, when he lost to VP Binay in 2010 and then to President Duterte in 2016.  Not very encouraging outcomes there.

TEEHANKEE. Based on the 2016 exit poll of SWS, 54.2 % [of voters] decided only around this time, and a significant 18 % decided on Election Day itself.

Perhaps that’s what’s giving hope to every candidate that s/he will be the chosen one of a majority of voters still deciding at this point in time.  But one can’t win on hope, not when these votes are going at least 4 ways, and not when the frontrunner has been working on a win for a full decade.

Hopefully this Holy Week finds Isko, Ping, and Manny accepting the fact that VP Leni is far ahead of them all, ahead enough to have a real chance of beating Marcos Jr. as she did in 2016, but only if the three throw their support behind her like true gentlemen and statesmen and patriots would—which is exactly how Doy Laurel is remembered, never mind the petty bickering with Cory after.

Surely the three do not wish to go down in history as 2022’s batch of would-be presidents who did not really care about nation. When this is over, win or lose, there will be a reckoning.

Meanwhile, the world that watched and applauded us when we ousted Marcos in ’86 is again watching, this time aghast that another Marcos is running for president and looking like he might win despite his father’s many crimes. And they’re wondering what happened, how could we let this happen, didn’t we see this coming?

I daresay we didn’t think they would go this far. I daresay we were counting on some remorse and some delicadeza on their part, for nation’s sake. Alas. Iba talaga ang mga Marcos.

Kelvin to Winnie: BNPP facts NOT “fun”

Rejoinder to Winnie Monsod’s Nuclear fun facts for Kelvin of 26 March [Inquirer]. Kelvin Rodolfo submitted this two days later [28 March] to Inquirer‘s opinion editor, it was acknowledged received but remains unpublished. Sharing here, thanks to Floro Quibuyen.

My dear Winnie,

You defend our electorate: ‘Mr. Duterte was a latecomer, and they had no time to study him as closely as the other candidates who were more well-known. Mr. Duterte had the attractiveness of a newcomer and little was known about him, or there was no time to spread the word.’ So of course he was elected, yes?

Let’s paraphrase: “Nuclear power is a virtually unknown latecomer, made attractive by propaganda, and Filipinos have no time to study it as closely as other better-known energy options.” But activate BNPP now! “What are we waiting for?”

You say that Filipinos overwhelmingly favor nuclear power because it would be cheap. You are the economist; though but an humble geologist, I have documented this fallacy: “Without taxpayer subsidy, nuclear power is absolutely impossible” [rappler.com/voices/thought-leaders/opinion-without-taxpayer-subsidy-nuclear-power-absolutely-impossible\]

Also: “So how much greenhouse gas does nuclear power really generate?” [rappler.com/voices/thought-leaders/opinion-how-much-greenhouse-gas-does-nuclear-power-generate/]

If I send you their documentation and you send me contradictory documentation, can we discuss as seasoned academics? Then answer commentator Ga Go: “bakit di nyo sagutin ang tanong ng mga tambay sa kalye namin, magkano ang kuryente galing sa nuclear plant?” With its unsolvable waste-containment problem, I certainly can’t.

Watts Bar II was originally built sturdily; BNPP wasn’t, said Cory government, including your NEDA in 1986.

Echoing Arcilla, you imply that, living in nuclear-powered Illinois, I hypocritically oppose BNPP. I’m against nuclear power globally, but bemoaning Illinois’ very real nuclear problems is not what we’re doing here.

We’ve lost touch, Winnie. Since 2008 Kathy and I are permaculture farmers in non-nuclear Wisconsin. Our farmhouse is earth-sheltered, cool in the summer; passive-solar and sub-floor solar-heated in winter. Solar panels and a wind generator provide all of our electricity, including power for our plug-in Prius hybrid, and we sell a modest surplus to the grid. Mahar Lagmay’s students have visited; check them out.

About Australia: I’m with you in decrying its big carbon footprint. But the point was, and is: Australia has the most uranium, but doesn’t use nuclear power because… their economists are not as smart) as you?

I wish you hadn’t anointed Carlo Arcilla your geological expert, because I ashamedly must share responsibility for his schooling. I discuss his BNPP expertise in “Propaganda about faulting, earthquakes, and the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant”  [rappler.com/voices/thought-leaders/opinion-propaganda-faulting-earthquakes-bataan-nuclear-power-plant]

He started agitating to activate BNPP before he even knew where it was, accepting a possible fault passing through its site, since confirmed. Why? He had mislocated BNPP 8 kilometers up the coast! Then he denied its existence to Inquirer’s Tonette Orejas, based on studies he hadn’t conducted yet. That was in 2009.

I signed his dissertation in 1998. Long ago, I gave up badgering him to publish it with scientific peer review. His promises to publish his “no Fault” studies carry little weight, except with you… Hoy, Caloy, mura ang laway.

Without corroborating evidence, Arcilla contradicts Academician Mahar Lagmay and his fifteen geologist associates (Foray 7). The Geological Society of London, the world’s oldest, which preserves its prestige with rigorous review standards, published their work on BNPP’s hazards. Arcilla implies he hasn’t even read it!

You ask me, “You don’t think a rehabilitated BNPP will have to pass safety requirements?” But that hasn’t happened yet, and you are already demanding its activation. You and Arcilla argue similarly.

Arcilla claims “PNRI is also the nuclear regulator, and being its director, we will have to sign the license to operate the nuclear power plant, following the IAEA safety guidelines. I will NEVER sign a license for the plant if there is an active fault beneath it.”

Actually, in May 2021 Congress started to establish a Philippine Atomic Regulatory Commission to regulate the nuclear energy industry. Secretary of Science and Technology Fortunato de la Peña concurred: “there needs to be a separate agency” apart from PNRI:   bworldonline.com/house-panel-approves-bill-setting-up-atomic-commission/

About the actual, serious problems with BNPP’s sisters Krsko in Slovenia, Kori 2 in South Korea and Angra 1 in Brazil, see my Foray 28, out last week: “Activating BNPP would give cancer to workers and adults living nearby”. [rappler.com/voices/thought-leaders/opinion-activating-bnpp-give-cancer-workers-adults-living-nearby/ ]

Some leaders of the National Academy of Science and Technology may advocate nuclear. DOST houses and funds NAST, making their objectivity questionable. However, chemist Fabian Dayrit, Academy Vice President and President of the Integrated Chemists of the Philippines, vigorously opposes BNPP and nuclear power.

I find no BNPP facts “fun”. In April, Rappler will publish Foray 29: “Activate BNPP? Increase Childhood Cancers in Bataan and Beyond”. I’m sending an advance copy with documentation to you and other commentators; do with it what you will, within the limits of the copyright that Rappler shares.

May you and yours stay safe from Covid and BNPP!

Kelvin

Imelda (after) Marcos #Halalan2022

It is said that Ferdinand, and nation, paid very dearly for his love affair with Hollywood starlet Dovie Beams because he could not but humor Imelda at every turn of extravagance and political ambition ever after.

But was it just the Dovie scandal that turned Imelda into the power-tripping steel butterfly who fancied herself a highborn queen with crowns and tiaras and a palace to match?

Scholar Caroline S. Hau reminds that there was, too, the fact of martial law and, corollary to that, the all-important question of who would succeed the dictator Ferdinand.

HAU. The turning point for Imelda’s “rise” to power is arguably not the Dovie Beams scandal, but the declaration of martial law and the dictatorship that Marcos established in the Philippines. It is one thing to be the wife of an elected president, living in a country whose politicians are corrupt and enrich themselves at public expense, but with a free press that can criticize the president’s (and his wife’s) policies and actions and a body of elected officials to vet or else block the president’s decisions. It is another thing to be the wife of a dictator unconstrained by any institutional checks and balances, capable of putting rivals and enemies behind bars and stripping them of their assets, commanding an army to arrest anybody given the suspension of the writ of habeas corpus, and helping himself to the nation’s funds and taking over various industries and turning them into personal expense accounts for himself, his wife and relatives, and his cronies and political allies.

Any number of explanations can be offered to account for Imelda’s growing clout in the martial law government, but the most important is regime maintenance, the desire of Marcos to keep himself, his closest kin, and his most trusted people in power for as long as he could. Ferdinand’s deteriorating health, the knowledge that his children were neither old nor experienced enough to “inherit” his position, the suspicion shared by all dictators that their lieutenants–especially those with strong connections to the military such as Executive Secretary Alejandro Melchor Jr. and Minister of Defense Enrile–were conspiring to build thier own power bases and ultimately dislodge the dictator in a coup d’etat: all of these would have had salience in determining (as well as upsetting) the “balance of favor” through which Marcos managed his dictatorship.

Imelda metamorphosed into the “Steel Butterfly” because she could do so and did so from 1972 onwards: there would be no institutional mechanism to hold her decisions and actions to public accountability, and there would be no one, not even an increasingly debilitated Ferdinand, to stop her from doing what she wanted. [Dovie Beams and Philippine Politics: A President’s Scandalous Affair and First Lady Power on the Eve of Martial Law. Philippine Studies: Historical and Ethnographic Viewpoints, September-December 2019. pp. 595-634. Ateneo de Manila University. p623]

I believe Ferdinand was already grooming Imelda to succeed him when he appointed her Governor of the newly-created Metro Manila Commission in 1975, and then Minister of Human Settlements in 1976, and Ambassador Plenipotentiary and Extraordinary in 1978.

He did not have much of a choice. Who else but Imelda could he trust with the children’s future. Who else but Imelda shared his dream of a Marcos dynasty “reigning for ever and ever” as in Handel’s “Hallelujah Chorus”.

This is why Ninoy Aquino, the only one who posed a serious challenge to the Marcos dynasty dream, had to go. ‘Yun nga lang, sumabit sa execution at sa post-production. Hindi bumenta sa audience ang storya nina Marcos at Ver na si Galman ang pumatay kay Ninoy sa tarmac.

The evidence of a military conspiracy was clear: a soldier shot Ninoy from behind, midway down the service stairs. The airport security had been so tight, Galman could only have been part of the military conspiracy to kill Ninoy and blame it on the communists.

Because the people saw through all the lies, na-EDSA ang mga Marcos. Poetic justice.

EXILE

The ouster in 1986 was totally unexpected, and unacceptable, to the disgraced tandem and their kids who had expected to live happily forever and ever in the Palace by the Pasig. To the (his) very end in September 1989, Ferdinand schemed and maneuvered for a quick forceful comeback, the surest way to bring back the good old days of impunity ASAP. But the coup attempts kept failing and he died just two months before the last, the biggest, the bloodiest, attempt which failed anyway because America played knight in shining armor to Cory’s damsel in distress.

I imagine that in the ailing Ferdinand’s lucid moments over those three years and a half when they were in Hawaii, and he was in and out of hospital, aching to go home, na paulit-ulit nilang napag-usapan ni Imelda, at napag-isipan nang malalim, exactly HOW to get the family back to the Pinoy future, with the patriarch’s luster restored.

No doubt Ferdinand continued to mentor | lecture Imelda on the ways of the law, and of politics, and of propaganda. Surely that famous line “Perception is real, truth is not” is a Marcos legacy, his very own political mantra passed on to Imelda and now the kids. It explains all the lying, all the denials, all the twisted stories, repeated endlessly over a decade on all media, so that people have started believing the bogus Marcos version of martial law and EDSA history.

BACK TO THE FUTURE

Looking back now on Imelda’s trajectory upon her return from exile, it is clear that she came home in November 1991 not just to face and plead innocent to ill-gotten wealth court cases and the like, but to work on denying and disputing all accusations of wrongdoing by her husband and herself, including the Ninoy assassination, if not in judicial courts then before the bar of public opinion.

And, let’s give it to her, the Marcos widow has done exactly that in the last 30 years, to the point that many decry the alleged persecution of the Marcoses and believe they deserve a second gig in the Palace.

BACK IN BUSINESS 1992-2016

She lost in the ’92 presidential elections but Bongbong won a seat in Congress as Ilocos Norte rep.  In ’93 she was convicted for graft but the case was on appeal so she was out on bail, praise the law, I mean, the lord.  Also in ’93 she lost the bid to bury Marcos in Libingan ng mga Bayani but at least she got him back home in Ilocos to display in a museum while awaiting more opportune times.  In ’95 Bongbong lost his first run for the senate but Imelda won the seat he vacated in Congress as Ilocos rep.  In ’98 she again ran for president but withdrew a few weeks before E-day and threw her support behind landslider Erap who ordered Marcos’s burial in Libingan ng mga Bayani (LNMB) even before he had taken his oath, but the outrage was so huge, the new prez backed off.  Consuelo de bobo: Imee ran for Ilocos rep and won the first of three consecutive terms.

By 2000 the campaign to free the convicted killers in the Aquino assassination, in jail then for some 14 years (counting from ’86), was in full swing, fueled by one of the convicts, Sgt. Pablo Martinez—one of 16 lowly-ranked officers serving double life sentences for Ninoy’s and Galman’s killings—who confessed in ’94 that he had been Galman’s handler, claimed he saw Galman shoot Ninoy on the tarmac, and named a general and a businessman identified with Danding Cojuangco who allegedly gave him and Galman their orders on the morning of the 21st of August 1983.

The story didn’t gain traction because Martinez was lying–Galman did not shoot Ninoy–but over the years, everytime August rolled around, media would keep repeating and speculating on the story, eventually succeeding in sowing doubt about Marcos and Ver as co-conspirators and throwing shade on Danding Cojuangco instead as the mastermind.  By the 20th anniversary of the assassination, the big lies had taken hold.

In 2005 Imelda Marcos threw her support behind Gloria Arroyo when the prez needed it most, after the Hello-Garci scandal, which must have counted a lot because in November 2007 Arroyo started releasing the killers of Ninoy and Galman after serving only one of two life sentences.  By March 2009 they all walked free, they had suffered enough, it was said; they might even be innocent like Marcos, it was also said.  In 2016 Bongbong ran for VP and almost won.  Imelda won anyway: Marcos got his hero’s burial in November, though behind closed gates.  In 2019 Imee won a seat in the senate.  And now Bongbong’s running for prez.

NEXT STOP, THE PALACE?

Imelda’s incredibly close to fulfilling the Marcos dream.  Can we still stop her | them at this point?

Our only fighting chance is to prevail upon Isko, Ping, and Manny to withdraw from the race for love of country—make the battle one-on-one as in the time of Cory.  With all of the opposition ganging up on Marcos-Duterte may panalo tiyak si Robredo.  Sa VP race, may the best man win—sana may bulagaan!

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Read Randy David’s “If Marcos Jr. becomes president” https://opinion.inquirer.net/151481/if-marcos-jr-becomes-president