fil-am relations: harsh truths, reality check

at last, one who tells it like it is.   in The golden rule in foreign relations business world‘s greg b. macabenta doesn’t mince words re travel advisories, the vfa, philippine tourism, and our “special” relations with the u.s. of a.

What’s the bottom line here?

Will the US retract its advisory? Will tourist traffic be any worse than it now is? Will the VFA be negotiated with more equitable terms, like respecting Philippine jurisdiction over crimes committed by US military personnel?

The harsh truth? None of the above.

Between the noises made in media and the actual discussions backstage, there is always a world of difference. The protests are for the benefit of the masses. But what eventually carries the day is based on the Golden Rule.

He who has the gold, makes the rule. In this case, America. It has the gold. It makes the rules.

Be assured that the VFA will be discussed, but the terms will be no more equitable than the balance of power between the Philippines and America. US interests will come first, and the Philippines will agree.

With a war on its hands in the Middle East, an economic and military juggernaut looming from China, sabre rattling in North Korea, and terrorist threats everywhere it turns, America has to be assured that it is in a position to protect its interests.

No matter what the treaties say, America’s interests come first and foremost. Anything that gets in the way of these interests is either shot down, bought out or given an offer that can’t be refused.

That’s how the VFA “renegotiation” will eventually turn out.

Of course, loud noises will be made by the publicity hounds, but P-Noy and the foreign office will find a way to justify the agreement with appropriate euphemisms about the interests of the Philippines being upheld.

Meanwhile, the travel advisory will not be recalled. There will simply be no follow-up advisory — at least, until there is another need to crack the whip on naughty, uncooperative Philippines.

But, will there be a negative effect on Philippine tourism? I doubt it. In the first place, few people in the Western world think about the Philippines as a tourist destination. There are no promotional activities, no efforts to generate awareness, no campaigns to persuade.

When the US State Department issues a travel advisory on the Philippines, that hardly creates a ripple in US media. Americans don’t hear about it. If they’ve heard about the Philippines, it’s most likely the fact that it is the country of this super boxer named Manny Pacquiao.

Will the travel advisory affect US Pinoys and discourage us from visiting the homeland? Not at all. What else is new, anyway?

In other words, the travel advisory is just a feeble bark with no bite.

But the president of the Philippines would be remiss if he did not protest. So, he dutifully protests.

If there’s anything worth discussing about this continuing drama on US-Philippine relations, it is the fact that this needs a reality check.

Do we really believe that America will protect Philippine interests over its own interests?

Do we really believe that America will give foreign aid without demanding something in return?

Do we really think that cuddling up to China will worry America enough to make it want to give us special concessions?

Do we really think that the US will easily give up its strategic position in our part of the world in the face of international threats, both economic and military?

Do we really think China will treat us better than the US?

Do we really think that the Philippines, at this point in its national life, is in a position to chart its own independent course, whether its Western patrons like it or not?

Do we really believe that our ASEAN allies will come to our aid if either China or America decides to bully us?

Finally, do we, the Filipino people, really think that the Department of Foreign Affairs and President Benigno Aquino III know how to deal with the harsh realities of the Golden Rule?

We all know the answer to that.

Reminds me of what the late former Secretary of Foreign Affairs Raul Manglapus was supposed to have suggested about what to do in case of rape.

“Lie back and enjoy it.”

g-20, apec, aquino, and the peso

MANILA, Philippines—Six Filipino activists who had planned to take part in alternative meetings that are set to run parallel to the G20 summit in South Korea have been deported from Seoul, their colleagues said on Sunday.

… The activists were put on a flight back to Manila late Saturday after being told by South Korean authorities that they were blacklisted and could not enter the country, the activists said…. One of those deported, Maria Lorena Macabuag of the group Migrant Forum Asia, said they were only attending a peaceful parallel forum and had not broken any law.

Her companions were identified as Josua Mata of the Alliance of Progressive Labor, Joseph Purugganan of Focus on the Global South, musician-poet and Asian Public Intellectual fellow Jess Santiago, Rogelio Soluta of the Kilusang Mayo Uno and Paul Quinto of Ibon Philippines.

… “We were granted visas and it was clear that we were invited by KCTU. It was all disclosed and it was clear that we are not a threat to them,” Purugganan said.

make that 7 activists, the 7th being Bernice Coronacion of the Alliance of Progressive Labor.   hmm.   heard ibon’s sonny africa saying on ANC that only filipino activists have been denied entry.   and so there is wondering whether this is with the collusion of the philippine government, which would explain why the aquino admin is not offended?   but if true, why so?   why would we not want filipino activists represented, having been invited to participate, in the parallel forum organized by the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions?   baka kasi mag-ingay masyado this “noisy minority” that the aquinos think very little of?

and then, again, isn’t it just as possible that this is a kind of backlash vis a vis the aug 23 bloodbath and the vietnam tweets, a kind of curveball from a good friend of hong kong and vietnam?   okay okay it may be a stretch but after reading this…

What is the Philippine interest in this event? At first glance, there is not much to indicate that the Philippines is represented, much less invited. The president of neighboring Indonesia regularly sits at the summit. Korea as the host country exercised its privilege of inviting Singapore, as well as Vietnam which is this year’s head of the ASEAN. With these three ASEAN countries sitting in G20, could it be safely said that Philippine interests are well represented? The presence of at least three ASEAN leaders both have advantages and risks, due to the diverse characteristics of small, free market leader Singapore, socialist Vietnam, and big Indonesia.

… it’s like we’re being snubbed?   and then, again, it could be simply that aquino’s presence would be of no consequence anyway, given the philippines’ reputation of being america’s lackey, no more no less, especially when it comes to the economy?

The G20 leaders will be expected to affirm agreements drafted less than a month ago by their finance chiefs. They promised to avoid a damaging round of competitive currency depreciations. China accuses the United States, however, of already violating the spirit of the pledge by printing excess dollars, which Beijing says contributes to Chinese inflation. Washington accuses Beijing of keeping its currency artificially weak.

[G-20 economies represent about 90 percent of the gross domestic product globally, nearly 80 percent of world trade, and two-thirds of the world’s population. G8 members — Great Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States — plus Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey and the European Union (EU).]

mabuti’t nag-iingay ang brazil:

… Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva blames both China and the US for keeping their currencies artificially low — causing the Brazilian real to rise and making his country’s exports less competitive — and could stir things up.

“We believe the United States and China are creating a currency war,” Silva told reporters Wednesday. “So, I am going to the G-20 to put up a fight.”

He didn’t specify what steps he intends to propose.

so the summit should be interesting, america vs. china, and everyone else vs. america and china?   even more interesting, our very own dr. bernardo m. villegas, who is usually so pro-america and pro-imf-worldbank, is predicting that the peso will depreciate post-G20.

In an economic forum sponsored by Security Bank for its clients last October 22, I had the temerity to make the fearless forecast that the peso-dollar exchange rate at the end of this year will be closer to P45 to 46 than to P40 to 41.

…The bleak outlook for the results of the G-20 in Seoul is in stark contrast with the upbeat mood in 2008 when the G-20 met for the first time to help stabilize the global financial system at the beginning of the Great Recession. Two years ago, there was an admirable cohesiveness among the leaders. Today, there is a “clash of interests and a clash of perceptions” that could result in a stalemate at the summit that would impede progress toward recovery. Mr. Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, is more specific in his warnings. He is afraid that tensions over exchange rates could degenerate into trade protectionism: “That could, as it did in the 1930s, lead to a disastrous collapse in activity around the world.”

… The Filipino overseas workers, the biggest source of foreign exchange for the country (estimated to reach $20 billion in 2010), are getting more sophisticated in their understanding of foreign exchange rate fluctuations, especially with the advice of our leading banks and remittance companies. It is very probable that a good number of them will postpone remitting their dollars to the Philippines in the hope of a peso depreciation late this year or early next year. For this reason, I do not expect the usual larger inflow of dollars for the Christmas holidays. The more important expenditures for the families of these OFWs have to do with education, which usually peak in June of each year. There is, therefore, reason for the OFWs to wait and see how the exchange war will work out and keep their dollars in the meantime.

Furthermore, there is reason to expect that portfolio investments in the Philippine capital market could slow down as many more countries follow the lead of China that raised interest rates for the first time in nearly three years because of concerns about increasing inflationary pressures in the economy. As more countries raise interest rates, they would attract more “hot money” into their respective economies. With inflation at low levels in the Philippines, I do not foresee our Central Bank raising interest rates in the near future. If this scenario of higher interest rates among our trading partners should be fulfilled, I am issuing a word of caution to those who are overly excited about our booming stock market today. Easy come, easy go.

These are my reasons for expecting the peso to depreciate closer to P45 to 46 by the end of this year. At the risk of immodesty, let me remind my readers that at the beginning of 2010, I was ridiculed by my fellow economists (including those working for the former administration) when I forecasted that the GDP would grow at 7 percent. The consensus forecast then was between 3 to 5 percent. As everyone knows, GDP grew by 7.9 percent in the first semester and is mostly likely to grow at 7 percent for the whole year. I rest my case.

samantala right after the G-20 summit in south korea on nov 11-12, there’s the APEC summit in japan nov 13-14 that aquino is attending (minus ms.lang of course) along with many of the G-20 leaders, including obama.

[APEC member economies are Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Peru, the Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, the United States and Vietnam. They account for 40.5 percent 1 of the world’s population, 54.2 percent of world GDP and 43.7 percent of world trade.]

aquino daw is set to propose that a framework be developed to deal with the volatile global financial markets.

“The idea lang, basically, is let us learn from the lessons of the Great Depression where each individual state decided to act on their own interests,” the President said.

sounds good.   if he can swing it.   if not, well, it’s also the same weekend that pacquiao will be fighting margarito in texas, let’s hope pacquiao wins.   consuelo de bobo.

mai, oh, mai, ricky carandang!

i have a good friend who used to be in mainstream media who is now with the malacanang news desk, coloma bloc, and the day he texted me the good news of his appointment was the last time we had a text exchange initiated by him.

a day or so after the august 23 bloodbath i texted him, fishing for info as to what else the president was up to that long afternoon and evening, just between him and me, just for my info, promise promise promise, and all i got was the official line, nothing more, nothing less.

needless to say, my respect for him has levelled up many notches, especially in the wake of the stupidly insolent irresponsible impertinent tweets of presidential speechwriter mai mislang, carandang bloc, while in vietnam with the president.

it bears pointing out that mislang was also in new york with the president last september and that we didn’t hearof any offensive tweets.   bakit kaya?   because the wine was great?   the traffic was painless?   the guys were guwapo?   tweetless as in speechless lang siya in america the beautiful?

or was it because she was the only one of the carandang group in new york, it was so soon after boss ricky’s major major aug23 booboos, so she was on her best behavior?   but what does this say about her bastos behavior in vietnam?   she was a different person because vietnam is third world, and maybe because boss ricky came too, hindi siya nag-iisa, and they were having a blast and maybe just maybe they brought out the bastos instead of the best in each other?

because, really, i’m amazed that carandang didnt have the sense to shut her up at “sucks”.   instead nakipagsagutan pa siya.   the same with ces drilon, who i’m surprised didn’t have the sense to shut them both up.   to top it all, carandang says he still has to figure out what to do about his tweeting darling, i mean, underlings, ano ba yan!   so he stops everyone from tweeting and/or blogging kahit wala namang nagkakalat kundi si mislang.

carandang must have loved john nery’s piece on the Unfortunate Case of the Wine that Sucked:

One journalist whose work I admire said Mislang should have resigned—as though the offense had led to a major diplomatic crisis. I don’t think I am being inaccurate when I say this journalist’s opinion was widely shared. Mislang has since apologized, and apparently the offending tweets have been removed. But I still see the occasional comment, tsk-tsking the blunder and asking for blunderer’s head.

When, I would like to know, did my profession adopt the one-strike policy? There is no question that Mislang’s tweets were bad diplomacy, but when did it reach the level of official policy, serious enough to merit expulsion from government? Mislang, whom I do not know from Eve, is not in the foreign service, where her kind of jejune comment would have had severe implications for her career; granted, she works for President Aquino’s communications group, where the cardinal rule ought to be not to become news. Perhaps the appropriate sanction would have been a reprimand, and a decision to leave her out of official delegations in the future. Butresignation? For expressing an opinion that the host government did not consider offensive?

tsk tsk, john nery, what makes you think that the host government did not find any of it offensive?   yes, we haven’t heard any reactions from the vietnamese but that doesn’t tell me they weren’t offended; more likely they’re just more civilized and sophisticated than we are — the french influence, no doubt — why stoop to our level?   big mistake to think that it hasn’t affected / deepened / sharpened, and negatively, their opinion of us as a people.   big mistake to think they don’t care if mislang is fired, or resigns, or not.   i bet they do care, and they’re watching, and waiting.   what goes around will come around.   one day, one way or another (as with hong kong / china) there will be repercussions, that could go from bad to worse, depending on whether or not they see a head or two rolling.

dapat lang, one mistake and you’re out.   no second chances.   the hell with learning curves for anyone who wasn’t elected.   learn the ropes elsewhere.   the presidency is the highest and most important office in the land.   the president needs, should have, professionals around him, not bumbling amateurs and overrated kids who have no sense of delicadeza and who are so full of themselves, they’ve become national embarrassments.

***

read too:

Propriety means never having to say you’re sorry / The internet is forever / The wine will always suck by karen cardenas.

The Mai Mislang Whinery by boo chanco.

Tweet made Carandang look like a twit by ilda.

from fritz webb

please understand that we have given everything required to prove that hubert was in the U.S. when the crime occurred.You name it, we gave it.

1. record of departure including ticket, ticket receipt,(with accompanying testimony from raja tours owner Bibay Nolasco), airline manifest (with accompanying testimony from a northwest airline official), passport with departure stamp from the Bureau of Immigration

2. record of entry which includes an F.B.I. report, a note verbale issued by the U.S. government signed by Secretary of State Madeline Albright stating that Hubert Webb was in the U.S. testified to by no less than both foreign secretary Domingo Siazon and Consul General Leo Herrera Lim

3. records of his stay which includes: Videos – one in Disneyland (testified to by a complete stranger who saw Freddie Webb and decided to video him), one at Lake Tahoe and another at a cousins wedding ceremony. Records of employment in the form of several encashed checks in his name Hubert Jeffrrey Webb before and after the crime California Drivers License aquired during his stay, certified by the Department of Motor Vehicles California. Dozens of eyewitness accounts all of which were excecuted by upstanding members of society all of whom have much to lose had they perjured themselves in court, the most prominent of all being Entertainer Gary Valenciano. Supreme court justice Antonio Carpio also testified that he knew that Hubert was in the U.S, based on his conversations with my father who was in the U.S. right before the time of the incident.

4. records of his departure which includes again the certification from the U.S. stating his date of departure, airline manifest testified to by an authority from the Philippine Airlines, Passport showing entry into the Philippines.  We have given everything humanly possible to prove he was in the United States four months before and fifteen months after the massacre occured. He only has one record of ever going to the U.S.A and it was only during the period we claim he was there.

Pease take note that: NOT A SINGLE PIECE OF EVIDENCE WE PRESENTED WAS EVER REFUTED OR PROVEN TO BE FALSE BY THE PROSECUTION.  THEY COULD HAVE VERY EASILY ASKED THE UNITED STATES IF THE DOCUMENTS WE PRESENTED WERE FAKE BUT THEY DIDN’T.  WHY?  BECAUSE THEY KNEW OUR DOCUMENTS WERE REAL.  THEY COULD HAVE EASILY (ABSOLVED) HUBERT IF THEY ALLOWED DNA TESTING FROM THE BEGINNING BUT THEY OBJECTED TO IT.  WHY?  BECAUSE THEY KNEW THAT IT WASN’T HUBERT’S SPERM BECAUSE THEY KNEW THAT HE WAS IN THE UNITED STATES.

We have waited fifteen long years for some people to start believing. Due to a judge and prosecution without any conscience, my brother has suffered much for a crime he very clearly did not do. All we pray is that he be set free so that he can pick up the pieces and start to live what he has left of his life. Let truth prevail.

no proof beyond the reasonably doubtful testimony and affidavits of a self-confessed nbi-asset-former?-drug-user.  ACQUIT HUBERT WEBB!