August 11, Antipolo Rep. Ronnie Puno in a privilege speech called for charter change via constitutional convention, triggered by the “vagueness” of “forthwith” and Senate Prez Chiz Escudero‘s cavalier take that led to the delays and eventually the archiving of the impeachment. Pero natabunan agad ito ng same-day exposey by PBBM of the 15 top flood control contractors, among them (it was quickly revealed) one who donated P30 million to Chiz’s campaign kitty in 2022. Double whammy kay Chiz. Kumusta na siya.
September 3, the House of Reps’ Young Guns filed a resolution also calling for cha-cha via con-con to lower the minimum age for president and VP from 40 to 35, and for senators, 35 to 30, apparently triggered by a notion that it would work for young ones like the hugely popular heartthrob Vico Sotto who turns just 39 in 2028 which to me only means hindi pa oras ni Vico, huwag madaliin.
But the grapevine buzz is that Congress is serious and are moving on it, or something like that, amid coup rumors in both Houses. I heartily hope it’s all just talk, trying o distract us from flood and corruption issues. Because now is not the time for charter change. Maybe later, in a new admin led by an enlightened one who wins on the promise of a constitutional convention streamed live, and a multi-media information campaign so that the people will know what they will be saying YES or NO to in a nationwide referendum.
CHACHA CONCON
Besides, mahaba at magastos ang proseso — from election of delegates, to drafting of a new charter, to prepping the people, to holding a referendum. Back in March 2023, in response to House Bill No. 7352, the expense was among the concerns of the Makati Business Club:
NEDA estimates a Constitutional Convention would cost Php 14 billion to Php 28 billion. HB 7352 proposes 300 delegates who would get P10,000 per day, or a total of Php 3 million per day, or more than Php 400 million for the seven-month project. We believe these funds can be better used on agriculture to address the high inflation, transportation to enable Filipinos to get to work and home in much less time, and needed social services like health, education, and social security. https://mbc.com.ph/2023/
Pero sabihin pa nating pursigido’t desidido ang Konggreso. The only way it could happen very fast is not through a Con-con but through Con-Ass, where the two chambers agree to constitute themselves into a constituent assembly, and the lower house finally agrees to the two chambers voting separately. Ibig ding sabihin, kailangan ay parehong YES or parehong NO ang boto ng dalawang kamara for any amendment to pass into law. Which is so iffy.
Besides, it would be open season for all kinds of surreptitious insertions and deletions that dynast lawmakers and government officials have long pushed for (term extensions, foreign ownership, shift to unicameral federalism), at tiyak makikialam ang mga naghaharing-uri to protect their interests, as in the Quintero payola scandal noong 1971 ConCon.
Sabi nga ni Ronald Llamas in a sober panayam with the sophomoric subsaharan Richard Heydarian who actually thinks charter change might be the only way:
LLAMAS: In principle I’m for a federal system but if you federate without the necessary minimum reforms, you are just federating warlordism, you are just federating concentration of power in the hands of a few, on the local level you will just be federating poverty. You need minimum economic and political reforms so that federalism would be much [more] real.
… Its about changes, [there are] minimum requisites before you change the constitution. Like, education is pretty basic, even congressmen don’t read the constitution. Perhaps even senators. So you have to popularize what you are changing and the proposals to change that. Usually the timing should be in the first half of a president’s term. Usually in the last half it’s tainted with suspicion that you just want term extension. You just want to change the system for vested interests. So if you start it early you have time to present, to educate, to do the minimum reforms necessary for changes in the constitution. They always use the excuse of economic changes but what is real is the political changes…
HEYDARIAN: Baka the right time will never come unless you create a sense of crisis… and maybe kicking off a constitutional change process by the trapos will activate the good guys.
LLAMAS: I doubt that will happen. … Because for now those who will push for charter change are the corrupt people of the present system … even, the most corrupt. You don’t even have a reformist in that group. So if you change the system, those who will decide about the changes will be the vast majority who are involved in the ills of the system you are trying to change. You want to change the system so that the ills will be mitigated, but the ones who will change the system now, if we do it now, will be the same guilty persons responsible for those ills.
Exactly. Whether con-con or con-ass, wala tayong panalo. If anything, dumadagdag lang ito sa gulo ngayong nagkakabukingan at nagkakaalaman na ng mga pasikot-sikot ng sistemang bulok na nagdadala ng karumaldumal na bahâ at karagdagang hirap sa taongbayan. As if life weren’t miserable enough.
LLAMAS. For me, the trigger is that the Dutertes may win in 2028. … This week there are lines being drawn for a united front. … So for now the trigger is 2028. If we don’t build a broad anti-Duterte front then the Dutertes will come and there will be hell to pay.
Yes. There are other ways to beat Sara in ’28. As in 1986, if the anti-Duterte forces and the anti-corruption movement, across classes and colors, can get behind one candidate, may panalo ang taongbayan.
INQUIRER Editorial: “Young Guns, old tricks”
https://opinion.inquirer.net/185948/young-guns-old-tricks
A Tangere survey recently claimed that Sotto would statistically tie with former president Rodrigo Duterte’s daughter if he were allowed to run, drawing 34 percent support nationwide in the baseline scenario. An earlier poll by WR Numero had placed the Vice President in the lead, though by a slimmer margin than before.
But here’s the rub: Why are our lawmakers treating these premature and largely speculative surveys as gospel? Neither Tangere nor WR Numero is in the league of more established pollsters like Social Weather Stations or Pulse Asia, and even the latter two could hardly give a credible snapshot of the elections three years from now. And history has shown that surveys taken three years before an election are about as reliable as a barber’s tale. Recall that President Marcos himself was a distant second to Duterte in such polls before he won by a landslide in 2022, with the VP likewise victorious as his running mate.
The ink has barely dried on the Supreme Court ruling that spared Vice President Sara Duterte from an impeachment trial this year, and already a band of neophyte lawmakers is rushing to rewrite the 1987 Constitution.
But their motive appears driven less by principle than by sheer panic.
Instead of building a credible opposition to challenge the country’s No. 2 official in 2028, the so-called Young Guns bloc in the House is peddling Charter change (Cha-cha) as a shortcut for boosting a prospective rival to the potential front-runner.
ComScore Observer
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Last week, Deputy Speakers Paolo Ortega V (La Union) and Jay Khonghun (Zambales); Deputy Majority Leaders Zia Alonto Adiong (Lanao del Sur) and Rodge Gutierrez (1-Rider); and Cagayan de Oro Rep. Lordan Suan and Cebu Rep. Eduardo Rama filed Resolution of Both Houses No. 2, which sought to cut the age thresholds from 40 to 35 for president and vice president, and from 35 to 30 for senators.
Under-30 demographic
If adopted by both chambers, the resolution would pave the way for a constitutional convention where elected delegates can formally propose the amendments, which will then be submitted to a plebiscite for ratification. Said Ortega: “[It’s] high time … for a more collaborative type of government to be led by fresh and bright minds.”
“Even in the local government, there are already a lot of good up-and-comers. [There] are a lot of young and bright public servants who are nontraditional,” he said.
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The proposal reads like a legitimate, if a little idealistic, call to “allow younger Filipinos—who are more globally competitive, socially aware, and capable of national leadership” to take on higher national posts. After all, more than half of the population is under 30, a demographic the resolution describes as “vibrant, dynamic, and increasingly educated.”
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But the timing of this move, coming on the heels of the Supreme Court decision and surveys showing Duterte supposedly tightening her grip on the 2028 presidential race, betrays its true intent. Pasig City Mayor Vico Sotto, who will be 39 by 2028, one year shy of the current age requirement, has been floated as the possible beneficiary of this constitutional mangling.
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Speculative surveys
A Tangere survey recently claimed that Sotto would statistically tie with former president Rodrigo Duterte’s daughter if he were allowed to run, drawing 34 percent support nationwide in the baseline scenario. An earlier poll by WR Numero had placed the Vice President in the lead, though by a slimmer margin than before.
But here’s the rub: Why are our lawmakers treating these premature and largely speculative surveys as gospel? Neither Tangere nor WR Numero is in the league of more established pollsters like Social Weather Stations or Pulse Asia, and even the latter two could hardly give a credible snapshot of the elections three years from now. And history has shown that surveys taken three years before an election are about as reliable as a barber’s tale. Recall that President Marcos himself was a distant second to Duterte in such polls before he won by a landslide in 2022, with the VP likewise victorious as his running mate.
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All these tell us that opening Pandora’s box of Charter change to accommodate a hypothetical scenario based on untested surveys is pure folly. For one, there is the ever-present risk of wholesale constitutional revision and term extensions under the guise of modernization. For another, it reduces constitutional change—an extraordinary and consequential act—to the level of petty politicking.
Electoral machinations
Worse, it signals that the House is willing to gamble with the nation’s fundamental law for the sake of electoral machinations. Lowering the age threshold will not solve the opposition’s crisis of leadership. If anything, it cheapens the cause of youth participation by turning it into a partisan tool. It certainly does no favors to rising local executives like Sotto to be the product of political conspiracy rather than of genuine public trust….