Category: social media

Trust ratings, painful truths

I totally agree with Ronnie Holmes of Pulse Asia that the high trust ratings of Digong and Sara as of May 6-9, just before the elections, had a lot to do with the timing of Sara’s impeachment (Feb 7) by the Lower House followed by Digong’s arrest and rendition to ICC jurisdiction (March 11). https://www.gmanetwork.com/

I-i-impeach din pala, why did Congress not strike while Sara’s trust ratings were down, soon after the Nov 2024 hitman threats on BBM atbp., no-joke no-joke? Sa kaka-delay — first the Lower House, then the Senate: why was the Senate so loath to proceed forthwith, all of three months before May 12 — nakabawi tuloy ang VP, thanks to a very smart comms team that has had her strutting on social media platforms, hitting at the Marcos admin non-stop for the poverty high prices and corruption  (never mind that she has nothing to offer by way of alternative economic policies) and then, post-arrest, doubling down with the “kidnap” of Tatay Digong, tugging at heartstrings with the sob story of advanced age, ill health, 27 pills a day, at kung anuano pa.

Sa madaling salita, had the impeachment trial proceeded, forthwith, back in maybe Dec 2024, it would could conceivably have ended with a conviction by Feb or Mar 2025.  And if the DOJ had also put off Digong’s arrest till May 13, then hindi nadagdagan nang katakut-takot ang mga hinaing ng mga Duterte, and maybe there would have been no consolidating the DDS base, tsismis pa lang kasi. At the very least, the political dynamics would have been quite different come election day. And BBM would not be in the spot that he is in now.

And then again, I could be completely off the mark, and it’s all just a matter of charisma pala, as many analysts and observers say. I tend to think though that the old man Digong’s high trust ratings only indicate that one of two Filipinos think, feel, he should face trial here, not in The Hague, just because kawawa naman ang matanda.

Besides, say pa ng DDS vlogger lawyers sa You Tube, okay naman ang judicial system natin, Digong would get a fair deal. Yeah, right. Imagine the wheeling and dealing. But that’s another story.

***

Rodrigo Duterte: A Fascist Original by Walden Bello Feb 2017
Charisma and Rodrigo Duterte by Randy David Nov 2021
‘The Punisher’: Rodrigo Duterte’s violent reign… by Rebecca Ratcliffe Jun 2022
Rodrigo Duterte’s Popularity … Covid-19 Pandemic by Kasuya and Miwa Nov 2023
Rodrigo Duterte: The provocative but popular Philippine strongman Mar 2025

That ‘vangag’ video

Back in July 2024, the first time I saw it on Facebook, I laughed. Siya ba ‘yan? At ganoon ba talaga suminghot ng cocaine? At saan, kailan, na-shoot ang video na ‘yan?

The very same SONA day it was released by U.S.-based DDS vlogger Maharlika on social media, the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) pronounced it a “poorly designed deepfake video that can easily be identified using simple tools openly available online.” https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/

The next day in a joint presscon, the NBI and the PNP shared the results of their “video spectral analysis”: the ears of the man in the video [the tragal notch and the antitragus, both on the outer parts of the ear] and those of BBM are different. https://verafiles.org/

Brig. Gen. Ronnie Francis Cariaga, Anti-Cybercrime Group (ACG) director, said they had the same findings after an artificial intelligence detection tool revealed significant discrepancies in the facial features of Marcos and the person in the video, such as the size of the ears, shape of the eyes and nose and sideburns.

Citing their analysis, Cariaga said the video is fake and was created using artificial intelligence (AI). https://www.philstar.com/

VERA Files Fact Check went for an independent assessment, reached out to AI detection experts of the Deepfakes Analysis Unit (DAU) part of the India-based Misinformation Combat Alliance. Three tools — Sensity AI, HIVE, and TrueMedia — found the video to be suspicious, bearing traces of manipulation at multiple points of the video’s run-time. Read ‘Polvoron’ video crumbles, AI experts find traces of facial manipulation.

The DAU also shared analysis from their partner GetReal Labs, which was co-founded by University of California-Berkeley professor Hany Farid and his team specializing in digital forensics and AI detection.

“[T]he human ear is a fairly decent biometric. Because a face-swap deepfake is only eyebrow to chin and ear to ear, the ears can often be used as indication of a fake. Attached is a two-frame animation (1 screenshot from the video, 1 from President Marcos’s recent state of the nation address) in which you can see some differences in the shape of the ear. The structure of the face and the hairline also seem quite different.”

That was in Sept 2024 pa when Vera Files confirmed the PNP and NBI findings. Not that it ever stopped the DDS from screaming “b(v)angag!” at every opportunity, accompanied by calls for BBM to resign or for people power to oust him, like father like son. The most consistent and strident calls coming from the vlogger who released it, and former RRD spokesman now self-exile Harry Roque.

Not that they were ever able to raise the requisite crowds clamoring for the same, but they never dropped the advocacy either. In fact, the DDS patriarch’s surprise rendition to The Hague raised the pitch of the vlogger and the exile to hysterical heights so it did not surprise that the latest TRIcomm hearing on vloggers and fake news saw fit to acknowledge and go public with an affidavit by vlogger Pebbles Talakera that related what she knew of the video “para itama ang mali” — basically that Roque is behind it daw.

Of course Roque has denied it, accusing government of a “political witch hunt” and Pebbles of “fake news.”

Ang totoo: Taong 2022 pa ay usap usapan na sa vlog ni Maharlika ang polvoron video. … Isa lang ang sigurado: Ka-jamming ni Marcos Jr ang kumuha at source ng video, at ang taong ito na malapit kay PBBM ay ibinigay ang video kay Maharlika. https://www.facebook.com/HarryRoque/

Maharlika and Roque insist that the video is authentic, “no evidence of editing,” according daw to forensic experts who prefer to remain unnamed except in a court of law. Maharlika has long been daring the BBM admin to take her to court, charge her with cyberlibel, or something like that, if they’re so sure it’s fake. And many observers even agree, na dapat patulan na, or it might fester, or something like that.

Umm, but that would be, like, sponsoring her debut in mainstream media to which she has been denied entry so far — nauna pa nga si Pebbles. Which is just as well because hindi pang mainstream media ang lenggwahe niya, na nagiging medyo bastos at bulgar lalo na pag may kinakagalitan siya at na-ha-highblood. Wouldn’t it be wiser to keep her in her place?

Of course, it would be a different matter if she were to come back and face the music here. Mainstream media tiyak ang landing niya [bleep bleep]. At kung bitbit niya ang AI forensic experts nila ni Harry, it would be a blast to see them facing off with Vera Files‘ DAU experts.

I’d place my bet on Vera Files. I suspect that Maharlika’s “puting ahas” was pulling her leg, and she fell for it. OR maybe she’s always known that it’s a deepfake but it’s good enough for destab purposes? and for the DDS?

The Galileo test #fake news

ATTY. TRIXIE. Minsan po ang tinatawag na “fake news” ay time-bound: posibleng totoo ngayon, bukas ‘di na totoo. https://mb.com.ph/2025/3/21/

She cited Galileo who was punished by the Catholic Church for saying that the earth revolves around the sun, when the religious wisdom in the 1600s was the other way around, i.e., the sun revolved around the earth.

ATTY. TRIXIE. … naparusahan po si Galileo. Pero 600 years later, nag-apologize ang simbahan dahil totoo pala siya. https://www.abs-cbn.com/

Actually, it was 359 years later when the Church acknowledged the mistake. The astronomer was condemned by the Inquisition in 1633. Pope John Paul II formally apologized for the “Galileo Case” in October 1992, in the first of many formal apologies during his papacy. https://content.time.com/time/

But that was all the way back in medieval times. These days, wala akong maisip na fake news that would pass the Galileo test, i.e., yung mapapatunayang true pala, based on facts based on evidence, in some future time.

Halimbawa, yung tinalakay sa TriComm hearing —  marami daw pulis na nag-resign nung dinakip si Digong, at nang-wa-water cannon din daw ang PH forces vs China sa West Ph Sea — ay parehong bagsak sa Galileo test, walang ebidensiya, dahil hindi nangyari. Fake nga. Fake commentary. Forever and ever.

Though clearly Atty. Cruz-Angeles is on another wavelength, maybe on the level of: Digong was kidnapped, taken against his will, in violation of Ph law — na maaari pang mapatunayang totoo? But that’s not “fake news”, that’s “biased commentary”, and we all indulge, one way or another, and if when developments prove us right, e di wow.

The Galileo example is even more problematic in the reverse. Just a few days ago, director Daryll Yap was charged with two counts of cyberlibel at the Muntinlupa RTC over his teaser for the Pepsi movie that “attributes” the “crime” to Vic Sotto who, of course, denies it. Tipong “fake news” daw?!?

And yet, back in 1982, we all believed it to be true, just because it was all over the martial law tabloids and broadsheets. In effect, kabaligtaran ng nangyari kay Galileo. Totoo noon, fake news ngayon. Only in da Pilipins?!?

Atty. Claire on EDSA & media #Resibo

Dati ko na siyang napapanood, nung una sa Teleradyo, “Usapang de Campanilla” yata yon, taking calls, giving legal advice. Now on YouTube her “Batas with Atty. Claire Castro” vlog has been one of my regular stops. She’s always worth checking out because she focuses on an issue at a time, making himay himay from the perspective of a lawyer, and always citing her sources, no matter how time- or tech-consuming.

She never struck me as pro-BBM, and she says she didn’t vote for him. But she supports the government daw, and when asked to help fight the stream of fake news from the DDS as election campaigns heat up, she said yes. Of course antiBBM vloggers and pfundits wonder if Atty. Claire is ready to lie for the Marcoses if push comes to shove, I suppose. She’s quick to assure that she will decide on the basis of hard evidence. As in, where’s the evidence that the prez had anything to do with the Tallano-gold story. Nasaan ang resibo?

Or where’s the evidence that the prez has downgraded EDSA Day, it’s still a “special” working holiday and people are “encouraged to join any event to commemorate” the special event. To this no one  followed up with, pero ma’am, paano yung mga may trabaho? Although Christian Esguerra, for one, did push back, and Atty. Claire did not disappoint.

Esguerra. Anong sagot niyo roon sa sinasabing under BBM lalong nalilibing ang spirit of EDSA? https://www.youtube.com/

Atty. Claire.  You are encouraged to join any event … walang paghahadlang.  … Mahirap sabihin that the president is trying to  erase the memory of EDSA People Power…sa utak ng mga Pilipino. Otherwise, baka pinagbawal yan… wala siyang idnidiktang ganoon….

Siguro we should not put the blame on the president if ever ma-e-erase ang memory ng EDSA.  Tayong taga-  media, if we really want to instill (EDSA) in the minds of the people, the youth, dapat nagpapalabas tayo ng mga  movies, programs sa mainstream TV, ng mga kuwento, para hindi nakakalimutan.  Hindi puro teleserye.

Itong (past) 37 (39 actually) years, ang nangyayari lang, walang pasok.  After walang pasok, paano ba i-co-commemorate ng mga tao. Hindi natin napapanood kung among nangyari sa EDSA revolution. Wala kang napapanoood. So the media should do that. … And they should not blame that to the current administration. Dapat panahon pa ni PNoy merong ganyan every year.

Na totoo naman. While on the one hand the Marcoses worked hard to diss and dismiss EDSA via social media, on the other, the mainstream media, academe, and government, and the oligarchs behind these institutions, have never cared to really talk the truths about EDSA — how it happened, why it happened — because it would mean revealing EDSA as a template for Change, Nonviolent Change; it would mean talking about the civil disobedience and the crony boycott that preceded and continued into EDSA, and how the economy was reeling, and the people were so engaged and ready to take to the streets.

Radio and TV talkshows and programs and docus about the 10 days of boycotts and barricades, based on indisputable sources would mean empowering the people to do as we did in 1986, and, I imagine, to do EDSA even better next time by shooting (so to speak) not just to oust a Marcos but for systemic, deep-seated, changes in the economic and social and political order. All anathema, of course, to the ruling elite.

PAHABOL

Mga resibo, mainit-init pa: “Bongbong evades, lies about EDSA.” Miguel Reyes of the Third World Studies Center and Vera Files tracks BBM’s comments on EDSA through the years, since 1989, mostly dismissive. “Nothing to celebrate …. Bigo ang EDSA 1 …” at kung ano-ano pa. Kung maniniwala ka sa kanya, e di wow, kalibing-libing nga.