in the beginning it seemed like egypt was doing an edsa.   and then it became clear that, where we had cory-in-waiting to replace marcos, the anti-mubarak forces have no leader to replace the dictator with, and are/were depending on, expecting, the united states, perceived to be the power behind mubarak, to take care of removing him and installing a transition government until elections can be held.   which brings home the effect of 30 long years of martial law.   suwerte pa rin tayo, 14 years lang, not long enough for censorship and suppression to dumb down the pre-martial law generation.

but there are some similarities.   like reagan in 1986, obama seems to need convincing that it’s time for america’s friend to cut, and cut cleanly.   the fear here in 1986 was that the communists might take over a weak new leader, and there go the U.S. bases.   the fear now in egypt is that the the muslim brotherhood might take over a weak new leader, and there goes israel beloved.

also, an imminent economic collapse, though not because of a deliberate boycott of government and crony businesses but just because everything has shut down and millions, maybe billions, are being lost everyday, must find mubarak, having lost all credibility with what seems a majority of egyptian people, under extreme pressure to ship out.   it would seem too that the hope of european leaders is for america to fly him out a la marcos, let him fall with some dignity rather than be put to trial a la saddam hussein, as some egyptian protestors wish.

so far i haven’t heard any news of a split military, which greatly helped our people power in ’86.   but who knows what’s going on behind the scenes.

too bad that nobel laureate elbaradai is an expat pala and therefore not really wellknown or well-loved in egypt.   he’s the perfect leader for the transition, i would think, and the people of egypt could do worse than to rally behind him.   a united opposition can bring down mubarak quite quickly, and give obama no choice but to support a transition government and start over re israel and the middle east.

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Revolution
Is Mubarak’s time up?
Obama’s Mideast Moment of Truth
Will Egypt mobilize or radicalize Arab youth?
Democracy’s Drawback
Egypt without Mubaraks: Sampson Option or New Political Order?