Category: cha-cha

gloria’s golpe-de-gulat

sinabayan pa talaga ni madam speaker ang red october eklat ng militar.  na-deja-vu ako.  in the run-up to erap’s ouster, then vp gloria conspired (or maybe just met often), it is said, with some generals intending to withdraw support from erap (five different factions daw).  and we know how very far that got her.

this time around she’s house speaker and pushing her version of a federal constitution and perceived to be fast-tracking a constituent assembly, never mind the senate, what senate, just in time for a rev-gov situation it would seem, na di pa pala binibitawan ng mga ka-DDS.  read lito monico lorenzana’s Duterte is not a Marcos.

but wait.  just 2 months ago she announced that it was too late for chacha and federalism, lalo na’t kailangan pa ng info campaign at ng plebiscite.  read Speaker Arroyo: Not enough time for charter change of aug 16.

Arroyo has described as “black propaganda” the claim of some senators and critics that she is eyeing the position of prime minister under a federal system.

“I think those who are raising those issues are those that want to stir controversy,” Arroyo said. “As far as elections are concerned, I’ve already said I’m not in favor of term extension, so I’m not in favor of no-el (no elections).”

In the first place, Arroyo said there is no such position in the setup recommended by Duterte’s consultative committee on Cha-cha, which she added was federal-presidential.

… Arroyo has stopped Veloso’s committee from drafting its own version of a new Constitution. “It’s waste of time. That should be done by the assembly,” Arroyo told committee members during a meeting of the panel, which she attended.

“So now we will work with Senate President (Vicente) Sotto and fellow senators on how to move forward,” she said.

anong nangyari between then and now.  obviously hello gloria and and her gang continued anyway to draft the house version of a federal constitution — with input from senate prez sotto and his gang, possibly?  Resolution of Both Houses No. 15! — just in case?

plan B siguro, in case bongbong doesn’t make it to veep.  how else to circumvent leni’s lawful succession except by adopting gloria’s proposed charter providing that in the transition to federalism-kuno under a rev-gov, the president in case of death or illness or incapacity will be succeeded by the senate president, not by vp leni.  a draft charter that is already so controversial, even self-servingly obscene, on so many points, like, wow, no-term-limits for reps and senators, parang dictatorship of the dynasties, among other unthinkables.  at parang di pinoproblema na baka di tanggapin ng publiko.  siguro walang plebiscite, a la marcos, people’s assemblies lang where people raise their hands when asked who wants rice, ehe, who likes the new saligang batas?

and then of course we have to factor in duterte’s health problem — he ain’t looking or sounding good — that, if taken with his expressed complaints about how hard the job is, and how he’s willing to give it all up right now, just say the word, puts the succession question squarely on the table.  read raissa robles’s IF DUTERTE IS TOO ILL TO LEAD THE PHILIPPINES, WHO IS NEXT IN LINE FOR POWER? 

Among those positioning themselves for leadership are Vice-President Leni Robredo, the opposition Liberal Party which she now heads, and members of the Magdalo Group as well as moderate left-wing Akbayan and civil society groups.

Second is former senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jnr and his mother, Congresswoman Imelda Marcos, and sister, Ilocos Sur Governor Imee Marcos.

Next comes the Davao group, headed by Duterte’s daughter, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte, and other Duterte loyalists. These include retired military officers, sitting public officials and diehard civilian Duterte supporters.

Fourth is House Speaker and former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and her political allies, while fifth is the Communist Party of the Philippines-New People’s Army and the National Democratic Front and its above-ground organisations.

vp robredo is next in the line of succession, no ifs or buts.  ang problema, duterte won’t step down kung si leni ang papalit sa kanya.  duterte wants someone like bongbong, like chiz? who will guarantee that he won’t go to jail for any crimes he might have committed while president.  thus this impasse that seems to be headed for a breaking point, with some prodding, it would seem, from hello gloria.  under her proposed charter, she can run again for any office she wants, though she says she won’t, she’ll be writing her memoir, but who knows, maybe she’s lying as usual.

and then, again, maybe she’ll get her wish to write a book, maybe her chacha won’t fly, too outrageous.  or maybe the case against her majority floor leader rolando andaya filed sa ombudsman by DDS commissioner greco belgica is just the first of many such SALN-related cases.

“Marami siyang hindi na-declare na baril, mga sasakyan, mga properties, lahat po ‘yun. We saw na hindi na-declare na maayos,” Belgica said, referring to Andaya’s SALN for 2016 and 2017.

reminds me of a congressman caught on video welcoming newly elected ones to congress with the line, “this is the life, guys!” or something to that effect.  if memory serves, nakagalitan siya, at napahiya, tried to take back his words.  sino na nga ‘yon?

the gloves are off.  labo-labo na.

 

gloria makes ligaw the senate: separate voting!

august 1, 2018 — the heat is on.  malinaw na charter change ang agenda ni gloria.  and she is not wasting the house’s time on endless debates over joint vs separate voting by the two chambers.

Arroyo expressed openness to separate voting of the two chambers on the proposed amendment to the 1987 Constitution, in an ambush interview following a tree-planting ceremony at the North Luzon Expressway in Pampanga.

“[It’s] better to move forward and achieve something than be stubborn and achieve nothing,” said Arroyo.

Arroyo also recalled that the issue of joint or separate voting was the same issue that hindered the move to amend the 1987 Constitution during her presidency.

“I ended my presidency with the same stalemate—voting separately and voting together. Years later, it’s the same stalemate,” she explained.

tama naman siya.  move forward.  separate voting talaga dapat.  so.  is there a chance that the senate would respond with a matamis na oo?

for a while i thought the senate might make pakipot, but only a little, because anyone who has been keeping track of past charter change attempts via con-ass knows how seriously senators have always wanted to amend the economic provisions, not just in gloria’s time but also in pNoy’s:

In September 2011, Sen. Franklin Drilon said both Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile and Speaker Feliciano Belmonte had concurred with his proposal to have both chambers vote separately on bills involving Charter change, which would only touch on economic provisions.   

the senate tried again five years later, on january 18 2016.

The Senate today passed on third and final reading a bill which will open up financing companies, investment houses, lending companies and adjustment companies to foreign ownership, to help increase the flow of investments and jobs into the country.

no doubt, therefore, that neither gloria nor the senate is happy with ex-cj puno’s draft proposal that retains the 40% cap on foreign ownership of corporations, public utilities, and land, even if it would allow a 30% cap on media and advertising.  no-cap across the board is the holy grail for politicians in the service of big business / the oligarchs, and this is their chance, gloria might say.  ka-ching!  ka-ching!

but, but, but, every time they’ve tried to do a con-ass in pursuit of the dream, civil society raises a howl.  read do not delete (economic provisions) from dec 2008.  though, yes, these are different times, and gloria and the lower house might think it can happen, finally, under duterte, who, i have a feeling would go along with anything, basta federalism pa rin.

the good news is, busted  si gloria.  read Pangilinan: Arroyo nod to separate voting welcome, but no guarantee.  august 2 –

Speaking on “The Source” on CNN Philippines, Sen. Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan said that Arroyo’s assurance that the House would go for separate voting in case Congress constitutes itself into a constituent assembly is a welcome development.

“However, what is to stop anyone from going to the Supreme Court and say, ‘No, it’s not separately. The letter of the law says, it’s voting jointly.’ Of course, the Senate disagrees, so what happens there?” Pangilinan said during the interview.

The Liberal Party president said that this issue would become more worrisome considering the voting record of the Supreme Court, which in May issued a landmark decision allowing the removal of a chief justice through a quo warranto or ouster petition.

… He said that Arroyo could say one thing while her allies or other groups could do another especially since cracks in the ruling coalition burst in the open following a recent leadership showdown in the House which led to the former president’s election as speaker.

besides, some senators have grievances galore against gloria arroyo.

Sen. Grace Poe has stated her displeasure over the assumption of Arroyo as House speaker because of her involvement in various controversies during her term as president.

Poe’s father, the late actor Fernando Poe Jr., ran for president against Arroyo in the 2004 elections, which was seen by many as tainted by fraud.

Sen. Joseph Victor Ejercito said the rise to power of Arroyo in the House does not look good for the Duterte administration, particularly with regard to its campaign against corruption.

Ejercito’s father, former president and now Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada, was ousted in 2001 and as a result, then vice president Arroyo took over.

Sen. Panfilo Lacson said the other day that if the ascension of Arroyo to the speakership is a prelude to becoming prime minister later on, the people behind this should think twice.

looks like gloria can’t have her way with this senate, salamat naman, even if for the wrong reasons.  i’d love to hear a senator or two or three justify the economic protectionism enshrined in all our constitutions since quezon’s time.  even marcos did not have the heart to delete these provisions, knowing full well that it would not bode well for nation.

so.  abangan ang next moves ni ate glo, who has promises to keep.

samantala, the duterte camp remains optimistic.  ding generoso, trixie cruz-angeles, and marie banaag are prepping mocha uson for the info campaign, and my favorite ex-senator rene saguisag wonders:

Can Mocha Uson help swing the work of the consultants who played a role not spelled out in the Constitution? That’s rich. How much is there for her, as a snake oil saleswoman, in pushing for what was done by a monolithic committee with only one woman and no known Duterte critic as members? Foolish questions might have been checked at the door. (?) How would she sell four Supreme Courts in Art. IX of the consultants’ draft, just for one contentious issue?

We now see that the Palace has reportedly allocated close to P100 million for a yes campaign, in addition to what has been spent so far when it created an office. Normally creating one which requires a huge budget can originate only exclusively in the Bigger House; the Better House (Senate) may concur with amendments. The power of the purse belongs to Congress; the way Digong allocates and spends money right and left we now see in him the equivalent of Macoy, a super-executive, a super-court, a super-legislature and a one-man continuing constitutional convention.

gloria in the house: worst case scenario

i think i get it, finally, why rep danilo suarez refuses to give up the minority leadership even if he is part of the majority that ingloriously voted speaker gloria arroyo into position, AND even if there is a real minority group — a coalition of LP and makabayan bloc reps who did NOT vote for arroyo.

“The House Rules clearly state that those who voted for the winning Speaker will constitute the majority bloc. Aside from voting for Speaker Arroyo, the Suarez group did sign the manifesto of support for Speaker Arroyo and even campaigned for her. For the Suarez group to remain a minority bloc is beyond reasonable,” Quimbo said.

beyond reasonable, beyond acceptable, but it would seem that gloria and her megamajority do not want to have to deal with a real minority.  i strongly suspect that it’s because they are still on charter change mode, but without resorting to no-el, which is what did alvarez in.  and now they are testing the waters with this suarez kapit-tuko-sa-posisyon.  if they got away with breaking the rules and improvising to unseat alvarez, maybe they can get away with this, too, in these very fluid times under duterte?

i wouldn’t put it past GMA and her cohorts to have promised sara duterte that without a pesky dissenting minority, they can do a cha-cha via con-ass in time for an info campaign in the run-up to may 2019 AND still pass the 2019 budget (or not, re-enact 2018 na lang) at kung ano-ano pa kuno, before she steps down (or not) in 2019.

GMA, by the way, is a veteran at failed chacha attempts.  maybe she thinks that the 5th (?)  time’s a charm?  read What went before: Past charter change attempts.   

worst case scenario, given duterte’s marching orders:  the lower house convenes (in secret, if necessary) as a constitutional assembly, passes (in the dead of night, possibly) its version of a federal constitution that favors incumbents, and presents it to the nation as a fait accompli, requiring only the people’s approval in a plebiscite kasabay ng may 2019 midterm elections.

never mind that 2 out of 3 filipinos do not know enough about the constitution, much less about the proposed replacement, to make an informed decision on the matter.  maybe the duterte and arroyo camps even consider this a plus in their favor — since there’s no time for a massive multi-media multi-lingual information campaign, much less time for serious debates nationwide, they will simply appeal to / for the people’s trust.  i can already hear mocha uson urging her 5 million followers: let’s trust tatay digong on this, maniwala tayo, manalig tayo, he knows what’s best, vote YES!  argh.

i hope i’m wrong.  my imagination on overdrive.  but if i’m right, and the senate is unable to stop it, ‘twould be time to hit the streets, the people and the senators, together.

ChaCha: Duterte’s endgame #SONA2018 #NoToChaCha

Katrina SS

The Duterte government is on overdrive, providing us all with requisite distractions from the fact that the Duterte-appointed consultative committee has drafted a federal constitution to the President’s liking, and we’re all back to this discussion, not about whether or not we even want charter change, or if it’s necessary at all, but about how it’s going to happen.

Let that sink in.

Duterte’s propagandists and chacha advocates have been able to bring it to this point when we’re not even discussing whether or not charter change will happen but how it will happen. The President and his people have muscled their way through this charter change push — we’re talking THREE different federal constitutions after all since August 2016 — and it has been able to do this by utilizing what we’ve seen government do consistently and viciously the past two years: chaos-by-design.

Read on…