Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC)
25 October 2016
ISIS has deepened cooperation among extremist groups in Southeast Asia, but most law enforcement agencies retain a strongly national orientation, without in-house expertise on groups outside their own borders. At a time when an accurate assessment of the security threat in Indonesia or Malaysia may depend in part on understanding developments in the Philippines, this gap needs to be filled. It is especially urgent because in the short term, ISIS losses in the Middle East could increase the incentive to undertake acts of violence at home.
With only three days left, Senate President Franklin Drilon conceded, saying there is no more time for Congress to pass the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL), as the measure is already dead in the Senate.
Drilon attributed the slow death of the Aquino-backed proposal for a long-term peace program for Mindanao to the bloody January 25 clash last year that resulted in the death of 44 Special Action Force (SAF) troopers in Mamasapano, Maguindanao.
“The political environment has become very toxic. I think the BBL and the peace process of the BBL is the 45th victim in the Mamasapano (incident),” Drilon said in an ANC interview.
so, why couldn’t oplan exodus wait until the BBL was a done deal. i mean, you know, if the BBL was so important, why jeopardize it in any way? why couldn’t oplan exodus wait?
the answer, if memory serves, lies in alleged intelligence reports relayed to suspended pnp chief purisima by american operatives that marwan was showing signs of planning a change in location. so there was a sense of urgency on the part of the americans, who must have demanded immediate action, knowing full well that napenas had a plan. a time-on-target plan that the americans must have deemed doable. the president may have been convinced that it could be kept secret and done quickly, in and out. besides, what was the MILF doing, coddling terrorists.
in fact the MILF is as much to blame for mamasapano killing the BBL, and not only because they gave refuge to terrorists. worse, that the MILF could not prevent or stop the killings — a one-sided massacre — in territory they claimed to control certainly does not inspire confidence in its promise to eschew violence and embrace peace.
as for the americans, i wonder now what they thought of the BBL. did they approve? did they care? maybe they cared more about getting marwan.
Teddy Locsin Jr.
2:45 PM – 27 Jan 2016
LET US NOT FORGET: OPLAN EXODUS succeeded in its mission to kill that fucking Malaysian. I want to hear praise for our boys for that success
3:08 PM – 27 Jan 2016
This AFP presentation is shit, WHY WE DID NOT FIGHT AND HELP OUR BOYS.
3:08 PM – 27 Jan 2016
NO STAND DOWN ORDER. WHAT ABOUT ATTACK ORDER, NONE ALSO?
3:14 PM – 27 Jan 2016
we see in the video that AFP was moving on, this is what we should do, just move on past the dead and betrayed.
3:19 PM – 27 Jan 2016
Real officers would have shot themselves at their desks by now.
3:20 PM – 27 Jan 2016
AFP is expressing regret that Napeñas was not in uniform and in the fight so he would be dead by now and can be given the blame.
3:23 PM – 27 Jan 2016
This is a disgrace. We have no Armed Forces worthy of the name.
3:45 PM – 27 Jan 2016
The Army had resolved to wash its hands, period. They wanted the SAF to die. Why? We can only guess.
4:05 PM – 27 Jan 2016
Why abort? They succeeded. They killed the Malaysian. Killing Malaysian was the whole point of it.
4:07 PM – 27 Jan 2016
Napeñas is saying THAT ALL OF those fuckers living there WERE ENEMIES, MEN WOMEN AND CHILDREN were all out to kill SAF. Get it!
that anticipated hearing was not explosive in an obvious way, but it certainly clarified many things in my head, as in teddy locsin’s, it would seem. good of him to articulate the conclusions most thinking and listening citizens are drawing from all that drivel in defense of the president and the armed forces. kesyo they were not informed, they did not have enough information, it was napeñas’s operation, only he is answerable for the death of the SAF44. but but but napeñas must have been getting orders from somewhere. so, if not from the president, i guess the americans?
in an ideal world, there would have been a secure communication line, and trust, between the president and napenas. at the first hint of trouble, the first shots, the president would have gone on crisis-mode. buking na rin lang, sana humingi na lang agad ng paumanhin sa MILF for entering MILF territory (na bawal under the peace pact while BBL still on the table) sabay insist that muslim elders send out the word to their warriors to stop shooting or else. sabay order the AFP to mobilize and be prepared to save the SAF if the muslims did not desist.
i can understand the need for “time on target” to prevent leaks that would warn the two hunted terrorists, but when shit hit the fan there should have been a way for the president to confirm sooner what was going on, in turn to inform, and update, the AFP para hindi sila puro na lang, we did not know who what to believe, we did not know enough.
so embarrassing. china and america must be loving the show.
Timeline of the Mamasapano clash, according to President Aquino 28 jan 2015
Poe insists PNoy was responsible 8 jan 2016
‘JPE can ruin Aquino’ 19 jan 2016
looking forward to jan 25. on social media it’s been suggested that enrile is out to get some leverage, hopefully to get gigi reyes out on bail. hmm. pag hindi natuloy ang hearings, o biglang executive sessions rin lang ang magaganap, e ‘wag tayo magtataka.