Category: 2025

That ‘vangag’ video

Back in July 2024, the first time I saw it on Facebook, I laughed. Siya ba ‘yan? At ganoon ba talaga suminghot ng cocaine? At saan, kailan, na-shoot ang video na ‘yan?

The very same SONA day it was released by U.S.-based DDS vlogger Maharlika on social media, the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) pronounced it a “poorly designed deepfake video that can easily be identified using simple tools openly available online.” https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/

The next day in a joint presscon, the NBI and the PNP shared the results of their “video spectral analysis”: the ears of the man in the video [the tragal notch and the antitragus, both on the outer parts of the ear] and those of BBM are different. https://verafiles.org/

Brig. Gen. Ronnie Francis Cariaga, Anti-Cybercrime Group (ACG) director, said they had the same findings after an artificial intelligence detection tool revealed significant discrepancies in the facial features of Marcos and the person in the video, such as the size of the ears, shape of the eyes and nose and sideburns.

Citing their analysis, Cariaga said the video is fake and was created using artificial intelligence (AI). https://www.philstar.com/

VERA Files Fact Check went for an independent assessment, reached out to AI detection experts of the Deepfakes Analysis Unit (DAU) part of the India-based Misinformation Combat Alliance. Three tools — Sensity AI, HIVE, and TrueMedia — found the video to be suspicious, bearing traces of manipulation at multiple points of the video’s run-time. Read ‘Polvoron’ video crumbles, AI experts find traces of facial manipulation.

The DAU also shared analysis from their partner GetReal Labs, which was co-founded by University of California-Berkeley professor Hany Farid and his team specializing in digital forensics and AI detection.

“[T]he human ear is a fairly decent biometric. Because a face-swap deepfake is only eyebrow to chin and ear to ear, the ears can often be used as indication of a fake. Attached is a two-frame animation (1 screenshot from the video, 1 from President Marcos’s recent state of the nation address) in which you can see some differences in the shape of the ear. The structure of the face and the hairline also seem quite different.”

That was in Sept 2024 pa when Vera Files confirmed the PNP and NBI findings. Not that it ever stopped the DDS from screaming “b(v)angag!” at every opportunity, accompanied by calls for BBM to resign or for people power to oust him, like father like son. The most consistent and strident calls coming from vlogger Maharlika and former RRD spokesman now self-exile Harry Roque.

Not that they were ever able to raise the requisite crowds clamoring for the same, but they never dropped the advocacy either. In fact, tne DDS patriarch’s surprise rendition to The Hague raised the pitch of the vlogger and the exile to hysterical heights so it did not surprise that the latest TRIcomm hearing on vloggers and fake news saw fit to acknowledge and go public with an affidavit by vlogger Pebbles Talakera that related what she knew of the video “para itama ang mali” — basically that Roque is behind it daw.

Of course Roque has denied it, accusing government of a “political witch hunt” and Pebbles of “fake news.”

Ang totoo: Taong 2022 pa ay usap usapan na sa vlog ni Maharlika ang polvoron video. … Isa lang ang sigurado: Ka-jamming ni Marcos Jr ang kumuha at source ng video, at ang taong ito na malapit kay PBBM ay ibinigay ang video kay Maharlika. https://www.facebook.com/HarryRoque/

Maharlika and Roque insist that the video is authentic, “no evidence of editing,” according daw to forensic experts who prefer to remain unnamed except in a court of law. Maharlika has long been daring the BBM admin to take her to court, charge her with cyberlibel, or something like that, if they’re so sure it’s fake. And many observers even agree, na dapat patulan na, or it might fester, or something like that.

Umm, but that would be, like, sponsoring her debut in mainstream media to which she has been denied entry so far — nauna pa nga si Pebbles. Which is just as well because hindi pang mainstream media ang lenggwahe niya, na nagiging medyo bastos at bulgar lalo na pag may kinakagalitan siya at na-ha-highblood. Wouldn’t it be wiser to keep her in her place?

Of course, it would be a different matter if she were to come back and face the music here. Mainstream media tiyak ang landing niya [bleep bleep]. At kung bitbit niya ang AI forensic experts nila ni Harry, it would be a blast to see them facing off with Vera Files‘ DAU experts.

I’d place my bet on Vera Files. I suspect that whoever shared the video with Maharlika was pulling her leg, and she fell for it. OR maybe she’s always known that it’s a deepfake but it’s good enough for destab purposes? And for the DDS?

Korek si Bam… Ayos si Chiz…

It doesn’t surprise that Bam Aquino is being hit by both anti-DDS and anti-BBM peeps for saying he’s an Independent rather than Opposition, and that he doesn’t think the VP’s impeachment is an election issue. But I must say he makes a lot of sense.

BAM AQUINO. Galing akong Zamboanga, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac. Hindi siya issue nung mga kababayan natin. Ang issue ng mga kababayan natin yung pagkain, yung kakulangan ng tulong sa edukasyon, yung pagkalimitado ng mga trabaho, yung puwedeng makakuha ng ayuda na hindi binibigay nang patas….  Pag umiikot kami, yan yung binabanggit ng mga tao.

So palagay ko yang impeachment, mahalaga siya sa mga partido, mahalaga siya sa mga pulitiko.  Pero pagdating sa taongbayan, ang hinahanap pa rin nila, yung mga taong magtratrabaho para sa kanila, [on] issues na mahalaga sa kanilang pamilya at mahalaga sa kanilang pang araw-araw na buhay.

Pag umabot na tayo sa senate, we will be a judge, at siguro yung nararapat na gawin ay maging fair. Tingnan yung ebidensiya. Huwag kumiling sa kahit anong partido. At siguro nga maganda na may mga independent sa senado, ‘no? Kasi ang nangyayari, kapag may partido ka na, parang nag-judge ka na e, di ba. Pero yung independent, kaya talaga tingnan yung ebidensiya, kaya tingnan kung anong ipe-present ng prosecution at saka ng defense, at gagawa ng desisyon base lang sa ebidensiya, hindi base lang sa politika, o base lang sa kaibigan.

At aprub rin si James Matthew Miraflor, strategic information consultant at The Task Force for Global Health Inc. who sees it as a “smarting up”.

MIRAFLOR. Bam-Kiko as independent rather than opposition. Quimbos doing the Q thing. These liberal politicians (not necessarily from the Liberal Party) are only doing what it needs to survive in an electoral system that operates under patronage principles. It cannot be helped. They need resources from above to sustain their coalitions and machinery; else they lose to someone doing the exact same thing. Hence, they have to make sure that the incumbent coalition is not hostile to them while still keeping their base.

For me, it is a fresh sight to see these liberal politicians finally smarting up and doing what needs to be done to contest political power. This is unlike in the last decade when they were weighed down by a false sense of righteousness; as if they were no longer mere politicians but “statesmen” of some sort, unsullied by the grease of the machine.

Yes, smart to draw a line without being pa-righteous. Smart to eschew talk of impeachment when one might end up one of 24 judges. There are honestly creative ways for a third force to navigate a highly polarized political arena.

Gets ko naman where Sonny Trillanes is coming from, but no one is belittling the issue of impeachment. In fact, we all (except for some DDS) wish the Senate would hurry up — let the chips fall where they may — and it’s a relief to hear from Senate Prez Chiz Escudero, who’s not sleeping on the job naman pala: pre-trial concerns and requirements are being attended to with due diligence (the better to forestall future complaints), the Senate will convene as impeachment court once the 12 new senators have taken their oaths.

At least that’s what I gathered from his presscon this morning. Smart of him to speak and explain directly to the people via media, rather than engage in endless debates with legal luminaries who say the trial should start now na even if the Senate is on recess. Anyway, na sa Supreme Court na pati.

Although say rin ni Chiz, it will be the Solicitor General’s office that will respond to the Supremes’ request for comment to petitions, whether to compel the Senate to move ASAP or to direct the Senate to cease and desist.

Not that the Senate, if truly independent, can be compelled to do anything against its wishes. Especially not by a Supreme Court whose CJ and 12 Associate Justices are Duterte-appointed.  https://sc.judiciary.gov.ph/incumbent-justices/

 

 

Kampanya 2025 kicks off

I find that I don’t have the patience to sit through senatoriables’ rallies and debates just because I’ve heard all these promises before, all unfulfillable except in nominal dabs and spurts as long as the System holds sway, a problem media does not care to address.

But I did check out PBBM‘s speech at his party’s campaign kick-off after being told na super-palabán, panay ang patamà sa mga Duterte re tokhang, Pharmally, atbp., and I can’t wait to hear from the Dutertes, who we know can give as good as they get. Surely they have as much on the Marcoses as the Marcoses have on them. Pa-anghang-an na lang ng banat. Let the voters decide.

Which reminds me of a Facebook post going around, tumawid na sa Viber, at pinadala sa akin ng kapatid via text. Bilib na bilib ang nag-post sa Marcos-Romualdez “lightning-fast, coordinated takedown” of Sara Duterte “that leaves no room for counterattacks.” Tipong political blitzkrieg daw at its finest. As though the battle were already won, the VP is done for. Tanong ng kapatid ko, totoo ba? Is it over for Sara?

Premature the hallelujah, methinks. Nothing is settled. Magaling din ang kampong Duterte, huwag maliitin o balewalain. Ang dami pang puwedeng mangyari. The Digongs aren’t going down without a fight, in and out of the impeachment court, whenever.

Kamakalawa lang, sinamapahan ng kasong graft ni dating Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez et al. si Speaker Martin Romualdez atbp. over alleged insertions in the 2025 budget. And VP Sara’s unequivocal denial that she threatened to assassinate BBM, the First Lady, and the Speaker tells me that her lawyers might stick to the “conditional” argument, as in, maybe share with the public what condition/s led her to give the kill order — when was that exactly? — that she told us about, that she now denies. What exactly was going on then behind the scenes?

Meanwhile, that Bam Aquino (#5) and Kiko Pangilinan (#51) are Independent and not Opposition makes sense. Opposition would mean vs. the incumbent only. Independent means vs. both Marcos & Duterte camps. Good of former VP Leni to endorse the two. Kailangan natin ng kakampi, other than Senator Risa, sa senado.

On the ground, we could start sounding out the voters around us — we all have our networks, small and large, private and public, whichever side they’re on — and we could start pushing for Bam and Kiko: bawasan ang mga artista, at tama na ang isang Tulfo isang Cayetano isang Villar! Kung may puwang pa, itulak rin natin sina | kina Ka Leody de Guzman (#21), Luke Espiritu (#25), at Heidi Mendoza (#45). Pakisingit, paki-insert. Baka sakaling makalusot. #LetsMakeSingit

Who’s afraid of Senate impeachment trial?

The INC & DDS were still high on that huge almost-2M-strong political rally — yey! di na mai-impeach si VP Sara, the people have spoken! — when PBBM‘s chief legal counsel proceeded to douse cold water on the very idea.

Juan Ponce Enrile:  As a nation and a state , we will incur a very detrimental precedent if we follow the logic implicit in the INC rally that they mounted. Are we prepared and ready to face the long term consequences of that INC move? https://www.facebook.com/jp.enrile

Quite persuasive, sa totoo lang. As JPE warns, should Congress refuse to act on the impeachment complaints on the say-so of INC, it would set an awful precedent for the next time an impeachable government official screws up and deserves to be impeached — the Iglesia, or some other group, only has to rear its ugly head again and say NO, and that’s that?

Thankfully PBBM has acknowledged the wisdom of Enrile’s warning, as in, yes, indeed, junking the impeachment complaints would set a “problematic” precedent, but in the next breath he says:

“Wala nang congressman, wala nang senador, dahil nangangampanya na sila. Hindi tayo makakapagbuo ng quorum. And so, as a practical matter, the timing is very poor.” https://pco.gov.ph

Susog pa ni Senate Prez Chiz, kailangan pa daw pag-aralan, kung sakaling ma-refer to the senate ang Articles of Impeachment ngayon, kung kailan malapit nang mag-break for elections, back to square one ba after elections? https://www.gmanetwork.com/

Is Chiz playing dumb?  As far as I know, the Senate is a continuous body na kahit kailan ay hindi nababakante — kaya nga staggered ang elections, only 12 of 24 seats become vacant every three years (unlike the House of Reps).  Ibig sabihin, the trial can continue, pick up where the Senate court leaves off before election-break, once the new members have been sworn in. (Naturally the newbies are expected to be capable of catching up, or they have no place in those august halls.)

Atty. Rene Bueno:  Kapag impeachment court na ang Senado, puwede magpatuloy na litisin ang complaint … puwede ring i-set aside until after elections. … Marami nang jurisprudence re the Senate as a continuous body, no one can interrupt this function, and the main purpose is to maintain the stability of the government.  https://www.youtube.com/

Prof. Antonio Contreras: The concept of the Philippine Senate as a continuing body refers to its structure, composition and functioning, which ensures that its operations continue seamlessly despite periodic changes in its membership. This principle has legal and practical implications, making the Senate distinct from the House of Representatives. https://web.archive.org/

Fr. Ranhilio Aquino:  It is instructive that the 1987 Constitution and the 1935 Constitutions of the Philippines have staggered senators’ terms—thus assuring the continuity of the chamber…. https://manilastandard.net/

So. Malinaw na initiating the impeachment trial before elections won’t be a waste of time and effort for the Senate. Of course it would annoy the INC & DDS, and surely lose them some votes in May, but, hey, di ba’t matutuwa tiyak ang mas nakararaming mga Katoliko at Muslim atbp. na pro-impeachment — from BBM peeps to Leni Kakampinks — huwag ismolin o isnabin ang mga boto nila.

Kaya rin wala akong kabilib-bilib sa hirit ng Lower House Reps na useless isampa ang kaso sa Senado dahil sigurado silang i-a-acquit ng Senado ang VP.  Parang wala pala silang kabilib-bilib sa mga ebidensiyang napalutang nila mismo sa mga hearing ng Lower and Upper Houses re confidential funds atbp. So. Kung iyan pa rin ang pakiramdam nila after elections, hindi pa rin nila aaksyunan? Never mind their mandate?

If memory serves, ganyang ganyan din noong impeachment trials nina Erap at Corona. Walang katiyakan. Pero both times, in different ways, natanggal sila. Can it be that the powers-that-be do not really want the VP impeached by the Senate, bahala na lang sa 2028?

Suddenly I’m remembering VP Sara saying back in October 2024 that she has a list of 5 impeachable offenses by PBBM. Could it be why BBM doesn’t want her impeached, so that she won’t, can’t, try to impeach him? Quid pro quo, I’ll scratch your back, you scratch mine, with the INC playing gamemaster? Sana naman hindi.