gloria in the house: worst case scenario

i think i get it, finally, why rep danilo suarez refuses to give up the minority leadership even if he is part of the majority that ingloriously voted speaker gloria arroyo into position, AND even if there is a real minority group — a coalition of LP and makabayan bloc reps who did NOT vote for arroyo.

“The House Rules clearly state that those who voted for the winning Speaker will constitute the majority bloc. Aside from voting for Speaker Arroyo, the Suarez group did sign the manifesto of support for Speaker Arroyo and even campaigned for her. For the Suarez group to remain a minority bloc is beyond reasonable,” Quimbo said.

beyond reasonable, beyond acceptable, but it would seem that gloria and her megamajority do not want to have to deal with a real minority.  i strongly suspect that it’s because they are still on charter change mode, but without resorting to no-el, which is what did alvarez in.  and now they are testing the waters with this suarez kapit-tuko-sa-posisyon.  if they got away with breaking the rules and improvising to unseat alvarez, maybe they can get away with this, too, in these very fluid times under duterte?

i wouldn’t put it past GMA and her cohorts to have promised sara duterte that without a pesky dissenting minority, they can do a cha-cha via con-ass in time for an info campaign in the run-up to may 2019 AND still pass the 2019 budget (or not, re-enact 2018 na lang) at kung ano-ano pa kuno, before she steps down (or not) in 2019.

GMA, by the way, is a veteran at failed chacha attempts.  maybe she thinks that the 5th (?)  time’s a charm?  read What went before: Past charter change attempts.   

worst case scenario, given duterte’s marching orders:  the lower house convenes (in secret, if necessary) as a constitutional assembly, passes (in the dead of night, possibly) its version of a federal constitution that favors incumbents, and presents it to the nation as a fait accompli, requiring only the people’s approval in a plebiscite kasabay ng may 2019 midterm elections.

never mind that 2 out of 3 filipinos do not know enough about the constitution, much less about the proposed replacement, to make an informed decision on the matter.  maybe the duterte and arroyo camps even consider this a plus in their favor — since there’s no time for a massive multi-media multi-lingual information campaign, much less time for serious debates nationwide, they will simply appeal to / for the people’s trust.  i can already hear mocha uson urging her 5 million followers: let’s trust tatay digong on this, maniwala tayo, manalig tayo, he knows what’s best, vote YES!  argh.

i hope i’m wrong.  my imagination on overdrive.  but if i’m right, and the senate is unable to stop it, ‘twould be time to hit the streets, the people and the senators, together.

ChaCha: Duterte’s endgame #SONA2018 #NoToChaCha

Katrina SS

The Duterte government is on overdrive, providing us all with requisite distractions from the fact that the Duterte-appointed consultative committee has drafted a federal constitution to the President’s liking, and we’re all back to this discussion, not about whether or not we even want charter change, or if it’s necessary at all, but about how it’s going to happen.

Let that sink in.

Duterte’s propagandists and chacha advocates have been able to bring it to this point when we’re not even discussing whether or not charter change will happen but how it will happen. The President and his people have muscled their way through this charter change push — we’re talking THREE different federal constitutions after all since August 2016 — and it has been able to do this by utilizing what we’ve seen government do consistently and viciously the past two years: chaos-by-design.

Read on…

enormous cost of shift to federalism

ALEJANDRO DEL ROSARIO:  At the 365 Club at the Holiday Inn Hotel in Makati, former senator Juan Ponce Enrile expressed his concern about the enormous cost of a shift from the presidential to a federal form of government.

“I don’t know where the government will source the money for this big shift when funds are already scarce for the administration’s Build, Build, Build infrastructure projects and the taxpayers are already groaning from rising cost of living,” Enrile said.

Enrile also said that regions under a federal system would also have the power to secure loans from other nations, making the country’s foreign debts even bigger.

“the line between federalism and feudalism can be easily blurred”

read business mirror‘s nov 2017 editorial Federalism or feudalism, reacting to the economist‘s The Philippines has the most persistent poverty in South-East Asia and warning that federalism is not necessarily or absolutely the answer.

The Economist article concludes, “The popular perception of him [Duterte] as an outsider willing to fight against the elites of Manila has some grounding in reality.” Some will see this as a justification for the President’s call for federalism.

… the reality—and our concern—is that the line between federalism and “feudalism” can be easily blurred.

The belief that the Philippines has moved beyond the mentality and structure of the “provincial warlord” is dangerously naïve. No better example is the Maguindanao massacre. The feudalism of medieval Europe was the family of the primary landholder giving the peasants just enough sustenance to work the fields but not enough to give them the strength to rise up against the Lord of the Manor. Not much has changed in the past thousand years.

Interestingly and maybe just coincidental (or not) is that the best effort at poverty reduction has occurred in countries—China, Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand—with very strong and controlling national governments.

Federalism may be an important step to break the hold and power of Imperial Manila. But unless the rule of law can overcome the warlords, we are not going to accomplish anything positive.