It’s good to be optimistic about the new year, to hope it will be better than the year just past, but it behooves us to be realistic as well. Here’s advice from the Business Mirror columnist I follow, a Facebook friend. Read all of it here: https://businessmirror.com.ph/2024/12/30/the-coming-year-of-risk/
THE COMING YEAR OF RISK
John Mangun… Risk is defined as “a situation involving exposure to danger, harm, or loss”. But it also means “the probability of an event occurring” and “the impact that an event may have”. In 2025 we will witness increased risk in the broadest sense of the word; increased danger, increased probability of that danger occurring, and increased opportunities. This is across the spectrum of geo/local politics and governance and geo/local economics and commerce.
“The risk of the risk happening will bring a great risk when it happens”.
… I had previously written that I see 2025 as going to be a year of hard choices, that is having to make difficult decisions in choosing one of the presented options. Black and white, shades of grey, and “the lesser of two evils” are all around us. However, the hard choice/s that I am speaking of is different from choosing mango instead of banana for breakfast.
In 2025, this is what I see happening. Two paths lie before me: one easier and one requiring more effort. The easy one is smooth and where I usually travel. The other is more outside my comfort zone but with both leading to the same place. I will pick the path that I usually avoided, replacing the potential for “immediate benefit” with long-term gains.
That brings me to my personal strategy for 2025. This should be a year of increased self-sufficiency for all of us.
That is not about raising your own chickens. It is about making your own milk tea. Ordering a milk tea delivered by motorcycle is one choice. Going to your kitchen and making it yourself is another option, a better choice for 2025.
Anticipating and preparing for greater risk also comes back to my basic “survival” strategy: figure out the worst-case scenario and then make plans to survive and thrive in that situation. Even in an urban area, depending on your housing condition, you can have a separate water tank to store a three- or four-day supply. A basic generator is a bargain at less than P5,000 during a prolonged brownout.
… You can make a bucket list of everything that is wrong in the world and the Philippines like one local pundit. Or find opportunities in a risky world and increase your wealth. Your choice.
On June 2, 2025, the cycle trend goes into a yearlong uptrend forecasting increased volatility and “risk”. I guarantee that the next 18 months are going to see increased risk. What you do with that risk is your choice. Happy New Year, my friend.