It was nothing like the euphoria of EDSA ’86 when the dictator Marcos fled the country, but still it was quite a rare high when former president Duterte unexpectedly flew off to The Hague without a fight. A WOW! who-would-have-thought moment that we are all still wrapping our heads around, whether in mixed joy and pity, how dissonant, or intense sorrow and rage, how DDS.
It also couldn’t have happened at a more critical time — it’s election season with Duterte and Marcos campaigning for control of the Senate where VP Sara, the daughter, is up for an impeachment trial, and last week civil society was clamoring for the trial to begin forthwith, before elections.
That’s a lost cause now, it would seem. We’ve already lost another week, the window of possibility grows narrower. And given the Duterte-ICC shock-and-awe political drama that’s got everyone thinking, rethinking, reevaluating (sooo Mercury retrograde), I imagine that the trial will just have to wait until after the May elections, in early June. The incumbent senators, re-electionist and otherwise, will not want to be seen adding to the tribulations of the VP, not while she’s in The Hague attending to Digong’s defense, and not while the DDS are screaming to bring him home, or else.
Or else, what? People power daw. The movie-in-the-mind of DDS peeps starts with street rallies that become so large and nasty and noisy that PBBM would have no choice but to declare martial law, which would then unite the opposition, the DDS greens with the pinks and yellows, left right and center; fast-forward to the ouster of Marcos and the rise of Sara. Parang fairy tale. And it’s not as if, if she became president she could bring her tatay home from ICC. Sa intindi ko, the only time Digong gets to come home is if and when the ICC declares him innocent.
Meanwhile they promise a sweep for Duterte’s senatorial slate, certain that they can count on voter sympathy to seat the entire caboodle in the Senate and guarantee Sara’s acquittal sa impeachment trial.
Voter sympathy. But I can also imagine voters levelling up, listening to both sides, going through now-I-see moments, and making up their own minds. Wishful thinking, I know, but heck all the information and opinions and platforms have to account for something worthwhile, or what’s the point.
And let’s not forget BBM who is very much in control. Here’s a Facebook post by information consultant James Matthew Miraflor on why BBM did it.
Marcos, Jr. follows the footstep of Macapagal-Arroyo – it does not matter how unpopular your regime becomes, as long as you satisfy the established elite. Unfortunately for the Duterte family, it is the same elite they pissed off when they maneuvered Dennis Uy into their circle.
For this elite, #NeverAgain to the Dutertes. This elite will ensure that Sara is impeached and perpetually disqualified, Polong is jailed (probably), and Baste is politically kneecapped. Kitty? All clans have Anastasias, she’ll probably have her own harmless Disney movie. The Dutertes cannot survive this without compromise. Marcos, Jr. and the rest of the Marcos family cannot risk a vindictive political force post-2028.
Hell, the Marcoses might even be willing to engineer charter change to ensure a transition to a federal-parliamentary system, one that will be dominated by corporate-sponsored parties*. Perhaps a semi-Presidential system, with a Tulfo as President and Romualdez as PM? It will be the apotheosis of the Philippine elite: dual power ala Roman consulate, fully liberalized, rules-based, with institutionalized consensus-based gerrymandering.
Alas, a low-intensity democracy that is also the technocrats dream: capitalists govern, economists appoint regulators, and the electorate simply vote party mascots.
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* Nacionalista for Villar, NPC for San Miguel, NUP for Razon, LAKAS-NUCD for Aboitiz, and the LP for the Negros vieux riche; Consunjis, Tans, and Gokongweis might commit to new parties, who knows?
https://www.philstar.com/…/2239719/tycoons-men-marcos-men
https://bilyonaryo.com/…/gokongwei-zobel…/business/