ousting duterte: ain’t gonna happen

17 October 2016

nade-deja-vu ako with all the coup and impeachment talk.  it’s like in gloria arroyo’s time when we were forever attempting another EDSA to oust her, especially after the hello-garci i-am-sorry scandal.  but we never quite managed one, did we.  at the time, i figured that it was because there was no one to replace her with — vp noli de castro the media man simply didn’t measure up — unlike in edsa dos, when vp arroyo the economist was mostly acceptable and the Left was simply outmaneuvered (the militants were calling for a council of state).

this time we have a vp who basks in the support of a yellow camp that is rightly offended by duterte’s kill-kill-kill rhetoric in the war on drugs but who seems to be distancing herself more and more from a president who rightly and fearlessly calls out america on historical atrocities committed against filipinos in the course of colonizing our islands.  and this time we have a former justice sec, now senator, trying to distract us from serious allegations that she was the recipient of millions of bucks from the bilibid drug trade for her senatorial campaign and who’s making a lot of noise about “extrajudicial killings” that’s being echoed by pro-american international media, academe, and, even, an international court prosecutor.  and this time we have the many amboys and amgirls among us who simply can’t imagine life without american troops and aid, as though that didn’t always come with all sorts of strings attached, to put it mildly.

but is all that enough to oust a duterte?  i imagine that de lima is hoping praying for an edsa action that would be backed by the yellow camp and cardinal tagle’s church and rogue military forces loyal to america.  but do they have the numbers that the duterte camp has?  no, they don’t.  their best hakot efforts would be as nothing compared to the throngs that the duterte camp is certainly capable of mobilizing throughout the country.  of course they could also shoot for a “crony”-business boycott a la pre-EDSA 86, but the duterte camp could just as easily mount a counter-boycott of the vp’s business allies, and it’s easy to imagine kung sinong pupulutin sa kangkungan.

as for an impeachment ops a la pre-edsa dos, here’s ninez cacho-olivares:

The political reality today is that the masses of Filipinos are behind Duterte and the majority in the House today are not going to try and impeach him and if they try to replicate that which the House and the Senate did in 2000 against Estrada, they are likely to fail and will face political death. Duterte, despite his being a fatalist, won’t give up that easily. Blood will flow, that is for certain.

“blood will flow” is cringe-worthy, of course.  the original EDSA template was all about no-blood no-guns no-violence.  even the president himself might be called upon for “creative imagination.”

12 Responses to ousting duterte: ain’t gonna happen

  1. October 17, 2016 at 2:14 pm
    Batang-genyo, ala-eh

    If the Supreme Court allows the burialof FM at the LBB, the 14.4 million Filipinos who voted for BBM will definitely support DU30 to the end.what i am afraid of is a US backed covert operations to destabilized the govt now that some pro-West military generals like FVR, Navy admal Golez, and even Sen. lLacson do not see eye to eye with DU30’s rapproachment with the Left and larely with China. Just as one columnist has said, I too is waiting for GODOt, a nihilist who can solve our dilemna to search for international and historical injustices suffered by our people.

    • October 17, 2016 at 6:54 pm

      but really, would america dare, in this day and age, a CIA kind of ops to topple / eliminate duterte? di na basta basta makakalusot ang covert ops. sobrang magkakagulo, esp now that mindanao is a major major part of the equation.

      • October 18, 2016 at 1:39 pm
        Batang-genyo, ala-eh

        sana nga, but what about in MiddleEast, in Libya, Yemen, Lebanon,Egypt, for sure they have dipped their fingers thrre.

    • October 17, 2016 at 7:31 pm

      bukas na daw ang supreme court ruling sa marcos burial? exciting. duterte says he will respect the court’s decision. easy for him to say. best efforts, ika nga. won’t be as easy for the many who suffered under marcos rule and also for those who were part of his ouster.

      • October 18, 2016 at 2:01 pm
        Batang-genyo, ala-eh

        Legally, i support the stand of president Duterte. Remember, the main reason that trigger the EDSA I revolt was Ninoy’s assasination which was blame on Marcos. But lately, there are motivational and circumstantial evidence that points to Danding Cojuanco as the mastermind of the criminal act. From Cory to Nonoy Aquino, thry have not done anything to compensate the victims of martisl law. Morally, if we Christian filipinos practice what the divine commandment obliges us to do as stated in the Holy Bible to love our enemies and leave retributions of sins to God for He declares Vengiance is mine, says the Lord”. Peace in our hearts and in the land if we follow His divine guidance.

  2. October 18, 2016 at 1:00 pm

    Trixie Cruz-Angeles RE Blowback for American sins: ‘The author fails to include here the fact that the United States Supreme Court ruled that the Treaty of Paris did not “assimilate” Filipinos. The PH never became sovereign US territory and Pinoys never became US citizens. The Court reasoned that the treaty merely bought the land from the Spanish state. Meaning Filipinos no longer owned their country, and they were merely the unfortunate residents of land that belonged then to the US.
    This article however, correctly calls the conflict between the US and the Philippines as a “war” and not an insurgency, the latter of which is what is learned by US citizens.’ https://www.facebook.com/trixie.cruzangeles/posts/10210648494109304

    http://www.bostonglobe.com/ideas/2016/10/15/blowback-for-american-sins-philippines/VNAmdveJWntU7f8FYnGvPL/story.html?event=event25

    • October 20, 2016 at 8:06 pm
      manuelbuencamino

      Why is du30 re-fighting the Fil-Am war when there is an existential threat in our EEZ?

      • October 21, 2016 at 2:58 pm

        PROF. CLARITA CARLOS: Foreign relations is rarely static. It throbs with the needs and exigencies of the moment…So, the apprehensions many may be experiencing with the repivot to other countries may just be part of the roller coaster of international politics…How about we give some slack to our new Chief Executive because we cannot discern what “strategy” he has in mind…He is certainly “cooking” things differently, maybe with a different recipe…so, how about we also wait for the food to be cooked before we start with our critiques… https://www.facebook.com/clarita.carlos.1/posts/10153833698260741?pnref=story

  3. October 19, 2016 at 9:15 pm
    manuelbuencamino

    A leader would be foolish to rest on his popularity. Look at Erap. It is managing hostility that counts. Look at Gloria.

    • October 19, 2016 at 10:43 pm

      oo naman. it remains to be seen if those trust and approval ratings will stay high. he has to get his act together. it’s not just about america, china, and drugs.

      • October 20, 2016 at 8:04 pm
        manuelbuencamino

        Pulse Asia poll on urgent national concerns shows the traditional urgent concerns inflation, better pay, jobs are back on top again, as they were in Dec 2015 before du30 successfully sold criminality and drugter s as the biggest problem in the country.

        Now criminality is back down to its traditional place in the list to 5th or lower after losing 21%. Now du30 will have to real issues instead of the campaign-fueled drugs and criminality issue.

        I hope he realizes that he can’t continue feeding the hungry with postered corpses

  4. October 23, 2016 at 2:45 pm
    manuelbuencamino

    Prof Carlos is right that “foreign relations is rarely static” because a country’s foreign policy is always a balance between a nation’s immediate needs and long term goals.

    Thus national interest should be both the north star and template of an independent foreign policy. Let’s grant du30’s recognition of a need to rebalance our foreign policy and taking steps to do so. But is he really “cooking things differently maybe with a different recipe”? No.

    His recipe as announced at that business forum in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People is

    “I, in this venue, your honors, in this venue, I announce my separation from the United States both in military — not in social — both in military but economic…So please, you have another problem of economics in my country. I am separated from them, so I will be dependent on you for all time. But do not worry. We will also help.”

    He has clarified what he meant by “separation” so let’s leave his clarification be. But let’s take a closer look at his second sentence “I am separated from them so I will be dependent on you for all time.”

    Is that embarking on an independent foreign policy? No. He is simply jumping from one sugar daddy to another. That’s not foreign policy, that’s paramoureign policy, the same “kept-partner” or “querida” template.

    The “cook and recipe” metaphor is incorrect. Du30 is not the cook. China is the cook. And it is already done cooking our dinner – unrestrained EEZ encroachment and exercise of sovereign power over it – and force-feeding it to us.

    Furthermore, why announce to a country that has encroached on our EEZ, prevented our fisherfolk from fishing in those waters, and even turned one reef into an unsinkable aircraft carrier that “I will be dependent on you for all time”?

    We are all familiar with Thucydides’ Melian Dialogues where he points out the relationship between “right” and “power” where “Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must”. That is as true and concise a statement about realpolitik as anybody can put it. But nobody ever said that he who is force-fed shit has to say, “yummy”.

    There is world of difference between “grin and bear it” and saying “yummy”. Unfortunately our Omniscient, Omnipotent, and Omnipresent Great Leader doesn’t even know there is a difference.

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